Succession Mafia (OVER!)

[Flameaxe]

Holster

for now.

I'm not sure that I entirely trust Yos's version of events, since he has an obvious incentive to make his team appear as weak as possible. I guess the viability of his lynch depends largely on whether he's really on the same team as Me=Weird, and on whether we can get a really good lead on a recruiter today.

There's a fair bit of setup-related information to parse, I need to do some "what ifs".

Who do YOU think is a recruiter?

I second this question.

[Erg0]

Not sure yet, my theories have been mainly setup-related and seem to get scuppered every time somebody claims a role or result. I have a strong feeling that at least one of our claimed PRs is lying, but I don't think it's RC or Andrius.

A few questions for Yosarian2 (sorry if there are any repeats, I've only skimmed the posts other than Yos's since the claim):

- What was your role prior to being recruited? Is it still the same?

- What's the name of your boss? If we manage to lynch a recruiter then it would be helpful to know which one we got.

- Did you receive a PM on the night that Chronopie claims to have blocked you?

Last question goes to xvart as well.

[Andrius]

Aim: Erg0

Unsatisfied with his response. Obv. counting on his buddies to help him out.

NO SHIT ITS NOT ME OR RC.

[Yosarian2]

]How can you assure this won't make it too easy for town to lynch the rest of your cult by paying attention to who follows who. You're the primary limelight here. Everyone's going to be watching your actions to see where you go with buddying and who you vote for. Does your cult trust you with this?

I think you're reading too much into my comment here. All I'm saying is that, if the current setup is "3, 5, 6" like I think it is, then assuming the other cult won't bus their recruiter, then the only possible way to get 8 votes on the large cult recruiter at this point to lynch him is for both the town and at least part of my cult to vote for him today.

Fair enough. What might happen where the advantages of knowing might become apparent?

(shrug) If I was convinced that sharing one specific piece of information would really increase the odds of the town hitting the enemy cult recruiter today, I would consider it.

I guess the viability of his lynch depends largely on whether he's really on the same team as Me=Weird, and on whether we can get a really good lead on a recruiter today.

Well, I certnaly don't expect you to just blindly trust me here.

I think the connection between me and Me=Weird on day 2 should jump out at you, if you re-read my posts for the day; I avoided commenting on him for most of the day, and when I had to, I tried to have it both ways; I defended him, using the serephem replacing out thing, but at the same time distanced myself from my own argument by implying that that defense on him is an argument made by other people that I didn't necessarily agree with.

In any case, the bottom line is, it doesn't really matter if you believe me. Town can't afford to lynch a recruit today; not any recruit, not at all, and I'm confirmed to not be a recruiter.

[ReaperCharlie]

Maybe this wasn't clearly worded before, and maybe it got lost in my post(s):

Yos: Did your scum group start out with just the recruiter, or was it recruiter + 1?

I would also like to hear from Katsuki.

[xvart]

I'll be getting to this game by tonight. But in the meantime...

Yos2 - did you get a flavor message when Chrono RBed you N0?

xvart.

[Porochaz]

Yos2 - Is there any point in asking you question when you are confirmed scum and anything you could say is bullshit?

[Porochaz]

In any case, the bottom line is, it doesn't really matter if you believe me. Town can't afford to lynch a recruit today; not any recruit, not at all, and I'm confirmed to not be a recruiter.

How?

[Porochaz]

Never mind. I saw why.

[ReaperCharlie]

So... who will you be voting for today, Porochaz? You seem delightfully thin on content for the past... WHOLE GAME.

[Porochaz]

Haven't decided yet, trying to work out the best way to play this game. However your 309 posts seem to be more a hindrance than a help.

[ReaperCharlie]

Um. It's Day 4, Prozac. One would THINK you'd have it worked out by now.

Or at the very least, you know, have some suspects or somethin'.

[Porochaz]

Or you know, you could keep asking yos2 questions which he will answer in any way and effectively be useless, maybe someone else can claim and effectively be useless and maybe we can have some more role discussion and that would make all partaking in said conversation, yep, you guessed it, effectively useless.

[gandalf5166]

Yos knows fully well that he has to work with us. If we don't lynch the other cult's recruiter SOON, his cult automatically loses. His info should be taken with a grain of salt, but it's not worthless.

[Porochaz]

On what premise do we know that his cult has the least members?

[Porochaz]

I have a theory, will be posting it soon.

[Robocopter87]

So Yos was recruited? He claimed cult to make his cult survive?

Why was he recruited and I wasn't?
Also Andrius could be Recruited, I could have easily been roleblocked.

[Porochaz]

Yes he was, no he didnt, Andi got a guilty.

The second paragraph is total WIFOM, you and by extension he could have been recruited a night previously.

[Chronopie]

You would have received a flavour PM if you had been RB'd.

Has anyone else, at

any

time, received a roleblocked PM? with **intimate** flavour?

There was the mod-confirmed flavour at D3 start, after the same night I got RB'd, with flavour PM. Flamaxe claimed a PM this morning. So Yos2-N0, Xvart-N1, [Counter-RB'd]-N2, Flameaxe-N3. Does anyone else have flavour text not on this list? I'm trying to identify the other roleblocker's actions.

Mobsters still in the building:

3. Erg0
5. gandalf5166
6.

inHimshallibe

Katsuki
7. Lord Gurgi
8. ooba
9. Porochaz

Someone on this list is the other roleblocker. So I'll be picking a target from these...

[Chronopie]

Mobsters still in the building:

1. Andrius
   Cop/ Protected since N1
   
   
2. Chronopie
   Roleblocker/Cleared N3 (RC)
   
   
3. Erg0
   
4. Flameaxe
   
5. gandalf5166
   
6. Katsuki
   
7. Lord Gurgi
   Cleared N2 (andy/RC)
   
   
8. ooba
   Vig (used)/cleared N1 (andy/RC)
   
   
9. Porochaz
   
10. ReaperCharlie
    Cop/cleared N0 (andy)
    
    
11. Robocopter87
    Doc
    
    
12. singersigner
    Vig (used)
    
    
13. xvart
    
14. Yosarian2
    Recruited by N3 (andy)

Anyone without colour text can still be a recruiter at this point.

--

Is massclaim viable at this point?

[Chronopie]

lol cross-referencing the two lists above, I can clear Ooba of being a potential RB. Lord Gurgi is rather lower down the list of potential RBs. So I'll be 'checking' these players, in no particular order. Flavour similar to D3 start means success.

3. Erg0
5. gandalf5166
6. Katsuki
9. Porochaz
7. Lord Gurgi

[Andrius]

I like how Chronopie is getting active. Reminds me of SSBMafia.

Yos is probably lying. About alot. Meh. :/

[Chronopie]

SSBMafia I had a cool role though

After all, who doesn't like being an SK?

[ReaperCharlie]

Neither Andy nor myself cleared ooba. We got a result that was inconclusive.

[Porochaz]

My Notes (rather than a theory, I do make a few assumptions including the recruit or kill one)

We have only had 1 unexplained death a night. Initially this lead me to believe there was one scum group with 2 recruiters who could potentially kill instead. However this doesn't explain M=W's death.

Table 1.
Night 1, Dram - Body Guard - Killed by ???
Night 1, zwet - Loose Cannon - Killed by ooba
Night 2, M=W - Recruited Goon - Killed by ???

Important: My Initial Theory rested on there being one group based on the NK's, if you are a vig and killed M=W, you need to speak out now! If I am correct we are pretty much in lylo!!!

I believe that we started out with just 2 recruiters, with the option to recruit or kill each night.

Table 2
Night 0 - both recruit
Night 1 - one kills, another recruits - kill gets redirected to dram
Night 2 - If we have 2 scum teams, one kills, the other recruits, if 1, then both recruit
Night 3 - Both recruit.

If there is only 1 group then 5 recruits and 2 recruiters. (-M=W who is dead) so by effect we are in LYLO and its down to rb'ers and any other role to win for town.

the more I think about this, the more it seems unlikely

(If we have 2, then the max on one side will be 5 recruits and on the other side 2, however that can be rearranged depending on how many kills each side made)

The worst expanation is

Table 3

Night 0 - Recruiter 1 recruits, Recruiter 2 recruits
Night 1 - Recruiter 1 recruits, Recruiter 2 kills
Night 2 - Recruiter 1 kills, Recruiter 2 recruits (M=W dies)
Night 3 - Both Recruit

I dont think we are in that bad a situation though. (see below) OR both tried to kill andi night 1 OR one tried to recruit Andi night 1.

This is unless the roleblockers actually effectively roleblocked someone. The fact that there was no NK at all is interesting, I can see (if there are 2 groups) that M=W's one wants to gain back what they lost with M=W's death and so recruited instead of killed. Could either of the roleblockers (assuming at least one of them is still town), have caught one? For Chrono, that would be BBM.

Now onto roles,

Andi and Robo to begin with. I think it's obvious that Andi is town, which would mean his results thus far are accurate as of when he got them. Robo, Im also going to except is town, up until N3. You have a cult doc protecting a cop and he isn't killed? (unless the rb'er got to the person first) Now Im not saying Robo is scum, but as of now I wouldnt be giving him a free pass as town. Which means as of tomorrow, Andi's results cant be trusted fully.

So this makes Lord Gurgi town, Im going to believe this for now and believe he hasn't been recruited yet either. I am however going to admit to "gut" on this one. Ooba was obviously a no result, but as he is now an effectively useless loose cannon, I am going to believe, for now at least, he is town also. Yos2, obv recruit.

Moving on to RC(Andi's N0 investigation), why did he claim? I'm struggling to work that out. His results are shoddy as well. A result on a claimed roleblocker, 2 questionable ones, 1 of whom was coincidentally investigated as well and someone who was investigated by someone else. Shoddy results + absolutely no need to claim makes him top of my list for another recruit (not recruiter as I believe Andi)

Chrono is the last one, Im confident he is an RBer but as Im getting frustrated with others about it, I think its worth noting that that doesn't mean anything in regards to alignment.

The rest of them, I think xvart should be looked into more deeply, I will be doing this next, obviously my focus for this post has been elsewhere. Erg0 has been, in my eyes the least active player, well, at least the one I can glean least knowledge from and I am uneasy about the fact he is playing directly against my meta of him. L.G. Ive already said is gut town, ooba is obv not recruiter, Im happy to believe his claim and am unsure as to why scum would recruit him. Katsuki, speak please? Your predecessor wasn't the most townie one out there. Singer obv not recruiter and yos is not recruit either. Gandalf I'm neutral, well I'm not in that I dont like his post style, but I don't have any beef with him so I guess Im leaning town.

xvart, bbm, erg0 and katsuki are the 4 I need to look into more. I would say Im leaning BBM town but with a high chance of a rb block, I can't rule him out. If you wanted me to choose now, I would choose Erg0 as recruiter.