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Post Post #2525 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:34 am

Post by Rhinox »

nacho wrote:
batt wrote:Really think. Is Kmd scum? You have to figure this out for yourself, don't allow others to influence the decision as they may have alterior motives. And when you do think about it, and you should, you will realize that Kmd is scum.

At this point, he's acting like there's some man behind the curtain who's blocking us from seeing kmd-scum; but who, other than plum (the person who were were wagoning, by the way), had been defending kmd and calling him the towniest of town?
This is a good point here.

Batt, who are the others that you feel were influencing town not to vote KMD?

-----------------------------
charlie wrote:These are actually good but circumstantial evidence against myself. It sounds convincing but it fall short because of the slow nature of the game and feels more like a half-hearted attempt to scum hunt. This can only mean one of two things:
1) Town aligned players not trying hard enough
2) Mafia aligned players taking an easy target
Emotional appeals aside, how can you justify accusing players who suspect you of being "Town aligned players not trying hard enough" when I think everyone will agree that if you are town, it doesn't appear as if you are trying very hard at all?

-----------------------------

I'm getting really close to voting ythan.

firstly, I think he needs a prod. Hasn't posted here in 8 days.


We've got scum-chrono sending him 2 votes. Wifom, but important.

Look at ythan's iso day 6. He gives an intent to vote plum without giving any reasons. Then he bickers with charlie for most of the day with useless side conversations because he obviously has no intentions of voting him, and isn't trying to convince anyone of charlie's scummyness. He contributed nothing to scum hunting in day 6.

Oh, there's the OMGUS ad hom attack against esurio.

A tinfoil hat theory: His attempted vote (x1) on plum to keep track of him. I didn't bring this up before because its sort of stretchy, but when he did that if all his votes would have counted it would have been a hammer. The mod has already clarified that votes could not be split before ythan tried to vote. I feel like this could have been a shenanigans ploy to quickhammer plum while appearing to not know he was hammering.

more wifom: hypo-town ythan should be a high priority scum target.

hypo-town ythan should be a more active scumhunter because it is becoming unlikely that the town will be able to secure a lynch without town-ythan's support.

Another tinfoil hat theory: killing millar - scum ythan would have no reason to believe that town richard was lying about his role or that town millar was lying about his role. ythan would also know from the discussion at the time that richard was under a ton of pressure to kill millar with his weak doctor ability, even though ythan claims it should have been obvious that he (ythan) always intended to kill millar. So by targetting millar, it in theory should have kept millar alive for the possibility of a BP lynch, and also kept the option of a richard mislynch because it would have been more evidence that he was lying about his role. All things that scum ythan would love to happen.

Alright, I'm really seeing ythan-charlie scum team connection everywhere I look in ythan's iso. They've bickered back and forth half-heartedly all game. Likely distancing - none of it comes off as genuine, like neither are actually trying to convince anyone that the other is scum, but they want everyone to see that they think the other is scummy. Ythan's never voted him. Will check charlie's iso later.

Is this set of exchanges why ythan was so hell-bent on lynching plum?
plum wrote:There's another scum faction in this game? Doesn't look too much like it, all things considered. I've learned to heavily distrust slips of even the most damning nature and can easily think of ways the phrasing could have happened by accident. Again, it really doesn't indicate anything unless there are two scum factions, and that is extremely unlikely, so.
ythan wrote:That is an incredibly damning slip though.
plum wrote:I've seen worse (or as bad at least if my memory doesn't fail) flip Town.
ythan wrote:We've all seen obvscum flip town. But you're trying to use that to say that only weak evidence should be used, or something crazy.
I'm more certain about you now.
because that doesn't make any sense because the last thing he said about plum before this was:
ythan wrote:If Plum is scum as raider's replacement then at least she has been attacking players I like even less (in a town versus scum way) since she got here. VI replaced by innocent or heavy busser. I'd prefer a not Plum lynch today. That means Chuck/Fan/Xite at the moment.
Ythan did not comment anything at all for or against chrono when he was getting lynched. I didn't find a single opinion about chrono all game. I find it odd that a townie would allow a player he's given no opinion about to get lynched. He wasn't even arguing for his preferred lynch (plum). He was instead pointless bickering elsewhere while the lynch occurred.

In short, I'm running out of reasons to think ythan is town.
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Post Post #2526 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:53 am

Post by Rhinox »

charlie wrote:And back to a pet peeve I've been having: We're assuming a single mafia team of 5-6 members, all tagged as Colombian Mafia. This I find strange, even if it is just flavour. I recently just realized that Colombia is a South American country. Last Will Mafia I had flavour with Swiss Mafia and Egyptian Mafia, both European countries. Now, it seems we're in South America. I dunno, even for flavour, it seems very strange to have just 1 mafia team. 2 would fit, and to explain the lack of double kills (except for the 1-shot vig claimed by Ytahn) each night, there is either mafia shenannigans, too-good-to-be-true Town blocking, or setup related mechanics (even/odd night kills) going on.

Why I think so: a mafia team of 6 players means that they already control half of half of the votes needed to win (yes, 6 out of the required 12) at the beginning of the game. Furthermore, we've been through 4 mislynches and 5 Night related deaths with votes passing onto different people. At one point, Chronopie received 2 votes. I... ain't feeling the setup with this, people.

... I speculate on the setup too much. But if I'm right, that means we're looking at connections the wrong way. We should try looking in groups of 3, maybe?
No, I don't agree with any of this.

Well, first let me say that I have no problem with suspecting that there might be 2 mafias, but in no way should that change our scum hunting at this point of the game, I don't think. Or rather, let me ask, how would assuming 2 groups of 3 mafias help us scumhunt better than assuming 1 mafia?

Secondly, you're assuming that there are 6 mafia members, but you argue that one team of 6 is too strong, so they must be broken into 2 teams. Why not 1 team of 5, or even fewer? my thinking is, with the will mechanic, lynching a scum does not necessarily remove a scum voting power, so a smaller single mafia team makes sense.

Thridly, no crosskills. Look at the night kills: Diacria, Twomz, MSH, xite, (jahudo), (jahudo) fishy. 4 out of the 6 were attempts on obvtown players. Scum aren't attempting to crosskill. Actually, xite was also obvtown IMO but not others.

So all the evidence other than a named mafia points to their only being 1 scum group.
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Post Post #2527 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:55 am

Post by Rhinox »

batt wrote:Rhinox- mass claim won't change my mind on KMD. It may help find other scum and it may help others find scum.
But why massclaim today then? If you think KMD is scum and massclaim won't change your mind, then why give scum information today rather than waiting to massclaim, say, tomorrow?
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Post Post #2528 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:13 am

Post by Jahudo »

Charlie,
Charlie wrote:I recently just realized that Colombia is a South American country.
Chronopie was not Colombian.
LlamaFluff wrote:
08 chronopie - One Shot Columbian Mafia Ninja - Lynched Day Five
When its spelled with a U, it could mean any number of things.
I think the mod might have chosen Columbia to trick us into thinking about games that use countries for multiple mafias. But I'm wary using this as evidence for a single mafia because it feels like trying to outguess the mod. Still, I think a single mafia is likely based on NKs (and the rarity of even/odd night killers).
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Post Post #2529 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:17 am

Post by LlamaFluff »

Vote Count

Charlie (2) - Locke Lamora, kunkstar7
Nachomamma8 (1) - Charlie
Battosuai (1) - Nachomamma8
kmd4390 (1) - Battosuai

Not Voting (18) - esuriospiritus, Rhinox, Ythan, Jahudo, Kmd4390, holycon

Ythan and holycon prodded
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Post Post #2530 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:46 am

Post by Rhinox »

Jahudo: or it can be simply mod error that its a u instead of an o. A recent game of mine saw a player rage and quote a role PM because the mod mistakingly gave him the flavor name of john o'conner instead of john conner from terminator. Point is, a named mafia does not imply more than 1. 'specially when there is no evidence to suggest more than 1.

Can we get on with scum hunting rather than unhelpful speculation?
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Post Post #2531 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 10:02 am

Post by Jahudo »

Agreed. I'm going to put some trust in the reads of our dead townies and see who among them have valid cases on living people left. I do remember Fishy being uncomfortable about Ythan, so that is something I am not going to ignore today.

@Ythan: Has the past few days been normal play for you? Like when you kept your Chrono and Plum reads held to your chest for the most part. Or is this normal play given certain circumstances like your multiple votes or lack of pressure?
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Post Post #2532 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 10:03 am

Post by Locke Lamora »

I'm inclined to agree with Rhinox on Ythan. I've got the impression there's much less reason to call him town now than there was a few days ago. I feel like he's been coasting for a while.
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Post Post #2533 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 10:53 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Charlie, that was more wanting you to explain your stance on fish than anything else. Basically, I'm open to the chance that I am wrong.

I agree about even/odd NKs or something similar going on. Even in that case though, fish likely protected jahudo both nights and that would mean both scum groups tried killing him. He's still town.
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Post Post #2534 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:18 am

Post by Nachomamma8 »

Jahudo, what do you think of my batt case?

kmd, you've said some pretty obvious things in your last post. Were you planning on contributing anything, or...?
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Post Post #2535 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 4:53 pm

Post by Charlie »

Rhinox wrote:Emotional appeals aside, how can you justify accusing players who suspect you of being "Town aligned players not trying hard enough" when I think everyone will agree that if you are town, it doesn't appear as if you are trying very hard at all?
Because when I try harder to "be useful", I often end up "having my foot in my mouth" (I quote this from a trusted source). I feel that a less direct approach both improves my usefulness and survivability i.e. play by supporting strong town reads (but this does not mean sheeping their votes blindly).

Regarding Ythan, I agree his replacement would help with the game.
No, I don't agree with any of this.

Well, first let me say that I have no problem with suspecting that there might be 2 mafias, but in no way should that change our scum hunting at this point of the game, I don't think. Or rather, let me ask, how would assuming 2 groups of 3 mafias help us scumhunt better than assuming 1 mafia?

Secondly, you're assuming that there are 6 mafia members, but you argue that one team of 6 is too strong, so they must be broken into 2 teams. Why not 1 team of 5, or even fewer? my thinking is, with the will mechanic, lynching a scum does not necessarily remove a scum voting power, so a smaller single mafia team makes sense.

Thridly, no crosskills. Look at the night kills: Diacria, Twomz, MSH, xite, (jahudo), (jahudo) fishy. 4 out of the 6 were attempts on obvtown players. Scum aren't attempting to crosskill. Actually, xite was also obvtown IMO but not others.

So all the evidence other than a named mafia points to their only being 1 scum group.
1) Looking for 2 links of 3 (or a pair and a group of 3 to make 5) rather than a link of 5 or 6.
2) Good point. A Large theme with a small mafia group with few Town PRs is well within the realm of possibility. Added with the vote mechanic, I can see your POV.
3) I still say that this point is rather dangerous and there are a number of explanations put out there already.

Conclusion: :roll:
Jahudo wrote:When its spelled with a U, it could mean any number of things.
I think the mod might have chosen Columbia to trick us into thinking about games that use countries for multiple mafias. But I'm wary using this as evidence for a single mafia because it feels like trying to outguess the mod. Still, I think a single mafia is likely based on NKs (and the rarity of even/odd night killers).
Ah hahaha, that's nice.
Rhinox wrote:Jahudo: or it can be simply mod error that its a u instead of an o. A recent game of mine saw a player rage and quote a role PM because the mod mistakingly gave him the flavor name of john o'conner instead of john conner from terminator. Point is, a named mafia does not imply more than 1. 'specially when there is no evidence to suggest more than 1.

Can we get on with scum hunting rather than unhelpful speculation?
Oh. I don't like how you're brushing off the speculation...
Kmd4390 wrote:Charlie, that was more wanting you to explain your stance on fish than anything else. Basically, I'm open to the chance that I am wrong.
Oh.
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Post Post #2536 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 1:25 am

Post by Rhinox »

Oh. I don't like how you're brushing off the speculation...
firstly, you're strawmanning me, because this:
Well, first let me say that I have no problem with suspecting that there might be 2 mafias, but in no way should that change our scum hunting at this point of the game, I don't think. Or rather, let me ask, how would assuming 2 groups of 3 mafias help us scumhunt better than assuming 1 mafia?

Secondly, you're assuming that there are 6 mafia members, but you argue that one team of 6 is too strong, so they must be broken into 2 teams. Why not 1 team of 5, or even fewer? my thinking is, with the will mechanic, lynching a scum does not necessarily remove a scum voting power, so a smaller single mafia team makes sense.

Thridly, no crosskills. Look at the night kills: Diacria, Twomz, MSH, xite, (jahudo), (jahudo) fishy. 4 out of the 6 were attempts on obvtown players. Scum aren't attempting to crosskill. Actually, xite was also obvtown IMO but not others.

So all the evidence other than a named mafia points to their only being 1 scum group.
and this:
Jahudo: or it can be simply mod error that its a u instead of an o. A recent game of mine saw a player rage and quote a role PM because the mod mistakingly gave him the flavor name of john o'conner instead of john conner from terminator. Point is, a named mafia does not imply more than 1. 'specially when there is no evidence to suggest more than 1.
are examples of me not brushing off the speculation.

Secondly,
charlie wrote:1) Looking for 2 links of 3 (or a pair and a group of 3 to make 5) rather than a link of 5 or 6.
This doesn't make any sense to me as an answer for how knowing or speculating about the exact makeup of the mafia group(s) today should help or alter how we scumhunt. We have 1 dead scum. We can look for links to the 1 dead scum or we can look for individual scumminess. I don't see how that changes if we think there is 1 scum team vs. if we think there are 2. The only time it could even come into play right now is if someone tried to eliminate a scum candidate on the grounds of "impossible to be scum with chrono", and no one falls into that category.

In short, more time scumhunting and less time speculating over something that is currently meaningless. Or, turn your speculation into some practical scumhunting by showing me how youo're looking for "2 links of 3 (or a pair and a group of 3 to make 5) rather than a link of 5 or 6", rather than planting an idea meant to cause confusion and doubt within the town.
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Post Post #2537 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 2:14 am

Post by Charlie »

Okay Rhinox, you win the argument. I see no point in saying more. Just these 2 bits:
Rhinox wrote:In short, more time scumhunting and less time speculating over something that is currently meaningless. Or, turn your speculation into some practical scumhunting by showing me how youo're looking for "2 links of 3 (or a pair and a group of 3 to make 5) rather than a link of 5 or 6",
rather than planting an idea
meant to cause confusion and doubt within the town
.
Inception is a good movie!

Objection, that's not fair of you to say that
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Post Post #2538 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 2:56 am

Post by Rhinox »

Charlie wrote:Okay Rhinox, you win the argument. I see no point in saying more. Just these 2 bits:
Rhinox wrote:In short, more time scumhunting and less time speculating over something that is currently meaningless. Or, turn your speculation into some practical scumhunting by showing me how youo're looking for "2 links of 3 (or a pair and a group of 3 to make 5) rather than a link of 5 or 6",
rather than planting an idea
meant to cause confusion and doubt within the town
.
Inception is a good movie!

Objection, that's not fair of you to say that
My brain ninjas are on to you Leo :twisted:

but yeah, replace "meant to" with "which can" and its then a fair comment.
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Post Post #2539 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 3:45 am

Post by Ythan »

Oops prodded. Reading.
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Post Post #2540 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 3:49 am

Post by Ythan »

Charlie wrote:This game is tedious and frustrating.
I can understand frustrating but how is it tedious when you don't even contribute?
Battousai wrote:mass claim won't change my mind...
:lol:
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Post Post #2541 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 3:53 am

Post by Ythan »

Jahudo wrote:@Ythan: Has the past few days been normal play for you? Like when you kept your Chrono and Plum reads held to your chest for the most part. Or is this normal play given certain circumstances like your multiple votes or lack of pressure?
Not the votes, maybe the pressure. Also my lack of access and the fact that I was asked to replace into this game rather than being interested enough to join from the start.
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Post Post #2542 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 4:47 am

Post by Battousai »

Rhinox-

Others in that post was referencing all other players in the game. I want everyone to look at Kmd independently of what other people are saying about him.

Why massclaim today? The chances of Kmd getting lynched to day is low, especially without many scum links. So, it will help others and therefore is better today than tomorrow (for all we know today is lylo).

On the point of multiple scum factions- it would be best to play as if there is one scum faction (as lylo would happen sooner with 1 faction) but finding small links is still acceptable.
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Post Post #2543 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 10:36 am

Post by Nachomamma8 »

Batt, if the chance of lynching kmd is low, then why aren't you trying harder to lynch him? Or working on advancing the case on someone else?

To the rest of you, why does it matter if we have one scumteam of two? I don't really think anyone's even gotten together a two player scumteam yet, let alone a 5 or 6 player scumteam...
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Post Post #2544 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 3:10 pm

Post by esuriospiritus »

I don't think I'd be willing to lynch KMD as the game stands now. There are too many scummier people.

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Post Post #2545 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 5:59 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

Like... who?

Certainly you're not just going to keep your old suspects?

What do you think about Batt, Ythan?
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Post Post #2546 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 7:37 pm

Post by esuriospiritus »

You're half-right, I guess. I still think Charlie's overt uselessness (plus the fishy thing) is scummy as hell still; that hasn't changed. (Also, Jahudo is pretty much confirmed town, but that kinda goes without saying). I'm also still distrustful of Ythan... but until get around to re-reading Plum, I don't want to give the impression I'm sure about anyone, least of all KMD, who probably had the most connections to Plum. I have the gut feeling he's town, but I've been reading the game this whole time with the assumption that Plum was scum, so now I have to go back and see if there's anything I've missed, do vote analysis again, etc etc and I just don't have the time or the energy for it lately. x_x
What do you think about Batt, Ythan?
Are you asking Ythan what he thinks about Batt, or asking me what I think about Batt and Ythan? Your wording was a little ambiguous.
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Post Post #2547 (ISO) » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:20 am

Post by holycon »

Sorry for not posting kinda forgot about this game

not willing to lynch kmd is be more willing to lynch batt and rhinox makes a good case against ythanand with him having so many votes can we risk him not being town
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Post Post #2548 (ISO) » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:59 am

Post by Nachomamma8 »

asking me what I think about Batt and Ythan?
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Post Post #2549 (ISO) » Sun Oct 31, 2010 5:13 pm

Post by Ythan »

Batt has not been the focus of my attention but has consistently caught my attention over the course of the game. He is on my list of rereads when I get more time.

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