Mini 1073: Autumn Mafia - Game Over!

[Me=Weird]

Although I suppose there's the possibility of a scum roleblocker.

[Antihero]

^Well, if he's a mafia roleblocker, he's not going to have to worry about that.

Preview edit: Exactly

[Oso]

Yeah most of the results from a fake JK claim, from what I've seen, tend to incriminate the claimer rather than the target. It's much harder to 'prove' the claim because of the dual nature of the role. "Did he block the killer? or Protect the target?" sort of dilemma.

I'm waffling on Fernando. I see the points all of those that are voting are making though. Doesn't change the fact that experience and my gut tells me that if we lynch a lurking, low-activity player here on Day 1, we are going to hit a townie who was disinterested in playing the game and flaked.

Another player (Xine I think it was or maybe it was ICE) mentioned something along the lines of cutting losses and the more I think about it, the more that makes sense. The 'damn the lurkers and let's lynch scum instead' attitude I usually use in the early game might actually come back to bite us in the ass later in the game under this rule-set.

Still thinking although I will say that I won't let Day 1 go to a No-lynch if it happens to come down to me voting or going to a no-lynch. We ARE pressed for time at the moment so you will probably have my vote at the end of the day (real life day, not game day).

I am going to use what time I can today, up until going to bed for the night, to rip apart the thread and see if there isn't something in there I missed though.

[Netlava]

Well, the main question now is if fernando is going to come in and claim or not.

As for Zinive's claim, most claims usually cannot be verified easily either way, but since JK is a relatively important role, I think that if Zinive is indeed the JK, scum cannot leave him alive for too long.

[AGar]

The sun began to set behind the mountaintops, leaving the sky a beautiful pink hue for the coming evening. Once more, six gathered around one, who had seemingly dozed off in a peaceful sleep.

Votecount 1.10

Antihero (1)

- Zinive

FeRnAnDo (6)

- netlava, Llamarble, ICEninja, Xine, Me=Weird, Antihero

ICEninja (0)

-

Llamarble (0)

-

Me=Weird (0)

-

Netlava (0)

-

Oso (0)

-

PerArdua (0)

-

Shattered Viewpoint (1)

- FeRnAnDo

Equinox (0)

-

Xine (0)

-

Zinive (1)

- Equinox

Not Voting (3)

- Oso, PerArdua, Shattered Viewpoint

With

12

alive, it takes

7

to lynch.

FeRnAnDo

is the current wagon leader(s), at

L-1

Deadline is October 29th, 2010 @ 11:59 PM EDT

[Llamarble]

I want Zinive to explain why he thinks Fernando is town, Shattered to make the post promised for yesterday, and Fernando to claim.

Fernando's long disappearance is giving me doubts. Would scum really think disappearing completely would improve their chances of winning?
Maybe last time he visited he decided it was safe to drop until night?

I'm having second thoughts about our choice not to lynch Zinive.
After his claim, he's now easily the scummiest player for me (scum Zinive almost certainly claims a PR to avoid an otherwise guaranteed lynch whereas town Zinive has maybe 1/3 or 1/4 chance of doing so).
Also, the powerrole Zinive claimed is very scumclaim friendly, making the odds even better that he's scum.
Assuming three town PRs and 3 scum, he's at least 50-50 to be scum if we consider claiming a powerrole to be the only thing against him, whereas everyone else is closer to 10%.
The fact that he claimed a scumclaim-friendly PR and was the scummiest player before doing so means I think his chances of being scum are closer to 75%.
Is it worth giving up that good of a chance to hit scum due to fear of lynching a PR?
After all, whenever we're about to lynch scum they'll probably claim a PR unless it's somehow obvious they're not one, so we'll have to lynch claimed PRs eventually. And couldn't scum force us to lynch him down the road in a worse situation by simply not killing him?
Also if we don't get a claim from Fernando we could accidentally lose a PR anyway.
And I don't see how night actions will help us figure out whether he's actually scum.
He doesn't even need to be a roleblocker himself, just needs to have one on his team to make it very unlikely for us to figure him out based on night actions.

I've only played a couple of games of online mafia, so I'd appreciate more experienced players' opinions on what to do in this situation.
I guess at this point we may not have enough time to get the necessary votes together anyway.

[Oso]

About to wind it up for the night and I need to post in another game as well. Didn't find anything on a re-read that would do any good right now. At least in my opinion.

I'll hold off adding my vote for the moment since it would be the hammer (and I suggest that anyone who hasn't voted Fernando do the same) but for my part, if Fernando still hasn't claimed or posted any sort of defense by this time tomorrow, I'll go ahead and drop my vote.

[Equinox]

Ugh. Sorry for disappearing. I have way too much on my plate right now.

I'm going to catch up elsewhere first and then come back to this and see what's up. Comments may not come for a few hours, though, as I'm trying to cram as much math into my head as possible for an exam.

[Equinox]

MOD: Happy birthday!

Detailed comments coming later pending completion of a midterm, response to a PM regarding rule 9, and some other backlog reading for this game.

In the meantime:

UNVOTE:

PerArdua, if you can't play, please be considerate and request replacement.

I see you logged in yesterday. I also know your phone is capable of posting on this site. AGar sent you a prod, so don't come back with a "I forgot about this game!" excuse.

[Shattered Viewpoint]

Please reference my earlier comments about Equinox and her procrastination.

Vote: Equinox

If, and I say IF, I absolutely must, I would be willing to switch to Fernando (can't recall if we nolynch without 7) -- but I don't find Fernando scummy, just useless and lurkish.

[AGar]

A short time remained left in the day, and the town could still not come to a decision. With night looming close, things became very grave and the town realized the severity of their situation.

Votecount 1.11

Antihero (1)

- Zinive

FeRnAnDo (6)

- netlava, Llamarble, ICEninja, Xine, Me=Weird, Antihero

ICEninja (0)

-

Llamarble (0)

-

Me=Weird (0)

-

Netlava (0)

-

Oso (0)

-

PerArdua (0)

-

Shattered Viewpoint (1)

- FeRnAnDo

Equinox (1)

- Shattered Viewpoint

Xine (0)

-

Zinive (0)

-

Not Voting (3)

- Equinox, Oso, PerArdua

With

12

alive, it takes

7

to lynch.

FeRnAnDo

is the current wagon leader(s), at

L-1

Deadline is October 29th, 2010 @ 11:59 PM EDT

Poor planning on my part has led to me scheduling deadline when I'll be at work. If the event comes that I must lock the thread after I leave for work (10 PM EDT - 2 hours prior to deadline), I will lock the thread mobile but likely not have a flip prepared. Night 1's countdown timer will be slightly extended by a few hours. Once the thread is locked, I will accept night action PMs.

[Xine]

As far as cutting our losses, by lynching lurkers, I must say that mathematically it is sound, but the correct play is always to lynch scum. In this case, (Fernando) I believe we are doing both.

[Oso]

As promised...

VOTE: FeRnAnDo

[ICEninja]

Um...what? Equinox unvoted 2 posts right before mod showed Fernando at L-1 without Equinox's vote on. Am I missing something, or was the vote count incorrect?

[ICEninja]

Oh Equinox never switched her vote to Fernando. That was indeed just the hammer, then.

I do believe we lynched a lurking scum. Hopefully we'll confirm this soon.

[Equinox]

Please reference my earlier comments about Equinox and her procrastination.

You're the biggest hypocrite in this game if you're seriously voting me for not contributing. Also, did it never occur to you that I might, just maybe, be busy in real life?

You managed to skip the concerns about you to... vote me for one of the most stupidest reasons ever. I am NOT impressed.

All right, I said I was waiting on a response from the mod, and a response I did verily receive! I was using spoiler tags in my wall, so I wanted to make sure it flew by the rules first. Probably not necessary now that Oso has hammered (since the spoiler'd area concerns FeRnAnDo), but I'll post it anyway since I went through the trouble of writing it.

[Equinox]

one of the most stupidest

Clearly, Equinox is not an English major.

Anyway, as promised, here is my catch-up post:

I don't, however, find Shattered to be very town.

It is interesting to note this disparity:

Not quoting the rest of this, since the link is there.

ICEninja makes a really interesting point. Shattered Viewpoint did eventually back up and say that he felt ICEninja "is most likely town," yet he asserts that his vote at the time was to caution. Aside from the "case" Shattered Viewpoint made when he voted, what's interesting is Shattered Viewpoint doesn't appear to have believed ICEninja was scum, ever. If he had, he would've said as much when I questioned him.

---

After some internal debate, I've decided to not post the spoiler section, which I just blew several hours over to get the OK to post. /sigh

The reason is it's a number of comments about FeRnAnDo based on digging from Netlava's case, and with Oso's hammer, it's really not necessary. I have it saved in Drafts, so if you want some reading material, drop a note or something.

I just got home, so give me a bit to settle down, and I'll speed through my backlog and try to beat the mod to threadlock.

If I don't make it, though, know this: Look at Shattered Viewpoint, and don't let this guy try to deflect attention off himself.

[Xine]

I think you should post it. Necessary or not, I'd like to see what you wrote, and since this is an ongoing game, I only feel comfertable reading it in thread.

[Equinox]

Probably wouldn't do any harm.

[spoiler='twas a giant waste of my time, but...]That said, I'm looking at Netlava's case:

Llamarble, a late random vote was enough to place me as the 2nd. scummiest? About Zinive's case, sure is suspicious, but wouldn't it be very silly of him to jump on a wagon that needs 4 more votes? I don't see a big deal there, yet.

It's suspicous because he joined a forming wagon too quickly, and yet not a big case because since zinive's started he has played 8-9 mafia games i don't believe he would make such a newbish move like joining a wagon on page 2 expecting 4 more votes. clear?

As Netlava pointed out, Zinive didn't wagon anybody; in fact, Zinive was the first to vote Oso, and after his unvote, he didn't make another vote until after FeRnAnDo's disappearance. That's a strange mistake to make, and it doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

...which was why I went back and looked at FeRnAnDo's post 66. Presumably, the first sentence I quoted above is a reference to Llamarble's list on page 52; Llamarble had made a case against Zinive in post 32, so we need to move back to this post:

Zinive is the

third player to go after me

. (Opportunism)
He tries to add to the reasoning against me so it looks like he's not just following the most promising lynch (Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this a common scum technique?)
But his added reason seems very weak to me. (running into the "scum say things they don't believe" situation again)
The fact that he doesn't vote me after stating suspicion and adding a reason makes it seem like he wants to lay low and avoid looking opportunistic.
(Scum want to avoid notice while pushing the town toward false lynches; stating suspicion and not voting lies in this vein.)

3 votes = L-4

That brings us to: FeRnAnDo has not been reading the thread in detail. (I've also just realized that I wasted half an hour doing this, and we're still at the same conclusion Netlava reached in 184. Well, I'm not about delete all that work...)[/spoiler]

---

Something here piques my interest.

Necessary or not, I'd like to see what you wrote, and since

this is an ongoing game, I only feel comfertable reading it in thread

.

I don't quite understand this last part. Would you elaborate for me, please?

[Xine]

I thought you were impying that you would PM it to any interested party. Living with another scummer I am hyper aware of the "no discussing ongoing games" rule. If that's not what you ment...oops

[Equinox]

Oh, lol.

[Llamarble]

I actually hadn't thought of that particular point as a big deal.
When I said Zinive was the third to come after me, I felt the action was comparable to joining a bandwagon since it sets up a vote for later. Several other players and I ended up discussing it in those terms (it's simpler to say "voted" than "expressed suspicion toward," even if they mean different things) later anyway.
That said, I do believe Fernando was a good choice to lynch for reasons I have previously expressed.

[Equinox]

I just had a thought.

If FeRnAnDo flips town, I will be investigating everyone who made accusations of lurking well after the week of October 24. It should have been clear after AGar's prod that this was a flaking case, not a lurking case.

If FeRnAnDo flips scum, I know where to look.

---

Links and additional information were edited into this quote for my convenience.

This is more a note to myself. Things I need to take care of here:

• ICEninja's case against Netlava (82), Netlava's first rebuttal (83), Netlava's second rebuttal (109), Netlava's third rebuttal (131)
• Xine's case against Llamarble (144), Llamarble's rebuttal (174)

Just went through that. That was a waste of time. (Boo. I even went through the trouble of adding the links. Guargh.)

I found nothing interesting in there. I was all pumped up, too, and now the hype's gone.

You guys know what I think, I think, so I'm going to leave it at that. Good night.

[ICEninja]

Yeah my case against Net is way outdated, and I haven't believed in it for quite some time. I do believe I've said as much. I apologize that you wasted your time.

[AGar]

As nightfall drew closer and closer, you all grew hesitant about the napping man. He was a short man, with olive skin, and he spoke with a funny accent when he did talk. For a while five or six of you had been glancing nervously at him, wondering if he was sleeping the day away so that he would be wide awake for the night. More and more, as time passed, you got shifty. Things were antsy, wondering what would happen if he were to be left alive.

Finally, one of you stood up. All of you had been tired of waiting and waiting for something to happen, and someone had to take action. He slowly sauntered behind the man and cracked his knuckles. With a sleeping target like this, hauling him over to a tree and tying a noose wasn't really necessary. With a few swift movements, he snapped the short man's neck. After a few seconds to make sure the break was clean, you all began scrounging around his body, looking for a clue of why he was sleeping so much. Unfortunately, the answer was not all that you thought. It was likely he was sleeping purposefully, but only after a long night of working the case files of the past murders.

FeRnAnDo, Town Cop, Lynched Day 1

Final Day 1 Votecount

Antihero (1)

- Zinive

FeRnAnDo (7)

- netlava, Llamarble, ICEninja, Xine, Me=Weird, Antihero, Oso

ICEninja (0)

-

Llamarble (0)

-

Me=Weird (0)

-

Netlava (0)

-

Oso (0)

-

PerArdua (0)

-

Shattered Viewpoint (1)

- FeRnAnDo

Equinox (1)

- Shattered Viewpoint

Xine (0)

-

Zinive (0)

-

Not Voting (2)

- Equinox, PerArdua

All night actions are due by 8 AM EDT on Sunday, October 31st, 2010.