Mafia 119: MURDER AT HOTEL DEATH(GAME OVER)

[Jack]

mafia doctor is also possible. vollkan said it was "too uncertain" or something but I think it is a solid odds increase in favor of a2rude being scum. Simply calculate the % of games with a roleblocker vs those with a role that makes a2rude definite scum.

[RedCoyote]

Vote Count

Jack(0) -

evilpacman18(1)

- PranaDevil
curiouskarmadog(0) -
LynchMePls(0) -

vollkan(1)

- evilpacman18

a2rudeboy(1)

- Jack
lewarcher82(0) -

PranaDevil(2)

- volkkan, LynchMePls

Not Voting(3)

- curiouskarmadog, a2rudeboy, lewarcher82

With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch

Deadline: November 18th, 2010, 2:00 AM, Central Standard Time

[curiouskarmadog]

vote Pranadevil.

given the tracker's claim, pac is not the best lynch...I refuse to believe you think so

[vollkan]

LMP I've already stated isn't worth me continuing discussion with, the arguments are becoming circular and are going to distract from any scum hunting the town could do.

Rather than rolling off rhetoric, could you give an example of LMP's attacks on you becoming circular?

PD+1

contingent on provision of an example

LMP I'm worrying I may be feeling is scum solely because of his interaction with me, and the severe lack of anything outside of his tunnel.

More rhetoric.

"Tunnelling" is only truly scummy where it results in the application of inconsistent standards and can be scummy, depending on player and context, where it results in confirmation bias (ie. newb-town has a tendency to latch on to people they suspect).

The fact that LMP has been consistently attacking you does not make him a "tunneler"

More or less. I had the feeling that both players are scummy: I wouldn't say that a2rude is less scummy than prana, but I had the feeling that the other players seem more receptive of prana's scumminess. Therefore I decided to shoot a2rude. Because I held both for scummy, and a2rude flipping scum would have had more information value.

Okay, that's reasonable.

mafia doctor is also possible. vollkan said it was "too uncertain" or something but I think it is a solid odds increase in favor of a2rude being scum. Simply calculate the % of games with a roleblocker vs those with a role that makes a2rude definite scum.

I may be wrong, but I'd be highly surprised if the proportion of games with Roleblocker and/or Roleblocker-like roles (eg jailkeeper) was lower than that with roles that would make a2 confirmed scum (eg mafia doctor)

[Jack]

but "roleblocker" doesn't make a2 town so it's a moot point...even if 10% of games have no roleblocker and some other role, that's a 10% increase in a2 scum. Barring other factors.

[PranaDevil]

LMP I've already stated isn't worth me continuing discussion with, the arguments are becoming circular and are going to distract from any scum hunting the town could do.

Rather than rolling off rhetoric, could you give an example of LMP's attacks on you becoming circular?

PD+1

contingent on provision of an example

Are you honestly going to tell me that the argument between me and LMP yesterday didn't basically become "yes" "no" "yes" "no"? He claimed one thing, I told the truth, he said I was lying and that he was right, so I stated the truth again, he claimed it wasn't... the entire thing is just the same crap over and over again. Fucksake.

LMP I'm worrying I may be feeling is scum solely because of his interaction with me, and the severe lack of anything outside of his tunnel.

More rhetoric.

"Tunnelling" is only truly scummy where it results in the application of inconsistent standards and can be scummy, depending on player and context, where it results in confirmation bias (ie. newb-town has a tendency to latch on to people they suspect).

The fact that LMP has been consistently attacking you does not make him a "tunneler"

What makes him a "tunneler" is that he's focusing on me and NOBODY ELSE. It's the very definition of tunnelling. I'll also note that so far we've lynched two scum. That means there's going to be more than just a single scum left. Nobody is going to tell me that a game which has obviously been rather town role heavy in having not just pro-town roles, but (seemingly) pro-town roles that are all mason groups. (Without checking I think the only single player power role came from scum's side in Snake) Which means unless one of the mason pairings has scum in it, town have been pretty well stocked on power.

So, to that end, if there's more than one scum member left, why is LMP refusing to even look at anyone else? I don't believe it's pro-town to take a single target and go after them without even looking at other issues that came up. However at the moment people are trying to claim that me being on Snake's lynch is a negative against me, despite the fact it's obvious I wasn't being opportunistic as I wanted to hear from Vollkan about what he said before I voted. If you want to look at that wagon, fine, but I'd be more inclined to look at those who just hopped on without questioning anything, not the ones who didn't want to risk a poor lynch and so questioned things first.

Hell, at this stage I can guarentee LMP would have used it against me anyway. "See, he's on Snake's lynch, he's obviously scum!" would become "He didn't even vote for Snake and he flipped scum, he didn't want to lynch his buddy!" At this stage LMP's quite blatantly just saying everything I am doing is scummy and has failed miserably to state why. It's easy to SAY something is scummy, but if he can't tell me why it's scummy in his eyes how the fuck can anyone defend against it anyway? "It's scummy" "Why?" "It just is" fucking tell me then you tit. You're basically saying that me acting how I normally do "is scummy", which is fucking moronic.

And yes I'm getting fed up of the argument on me that I can see no logical basis for at any point of it.

[Jack]

prana. Vote a2rudeboy.

I don't like a prana lynch, he's putting too much effort into the game compared to a2.

[evilpacman18]

I will put PD at L-2 because he's scum anyway.

Putting too much effort into a game isn't usually a town tell, especially if it's an unprecedented amount of effort.

unvote, vote: PranaDevil

More rhetoric.

Oh, the irony.

[Jack]

What do you think about a2rudeboy?

[lewarcher82]

This post will be the first of a series of posts that aim to tentatively explore the possible identity of further mafia members together with a2rude and prana, on whose guilt I almost have no doubts left (but I will add something about prana, as well).

An important question to everyone: referring to post 989, why did you all vote silver? reading it now, it seems pretty obvious that it was not a scummy reaction. It is obvious that he was not sure if he could reveal what you were asking to him. He even said he was going to look for mod.

I am surprised by the general reaction, but I will also say something more on the single voters:

Prana: you switched from evil, after a real crusade against him, to silver without even raising any doubts... this is scummy as hell, at least to me;

Jack: it was my understanding that you might know something about post-restrictions, and you knew it since a very early phase of the game, this is at least what someone inferred. Now the question I am asking myself, rather than asking it to you, is: if you do, and you are perhaps a post-restricted townie, too, why didn't you assume that silver was a town-fellow of yours? Did you have any reasons to believe that a player with post-restrictions should have been scum?

Volltron: there was no bw on silver, so it is correct to state that you actually started the events that lead to his claim and to his death. Why
shouldn't Icall you a fisher?

mod: is it too soon to ask for a2rudeboy to be prodded?

[lewarcher82]

evilpacman, u put prana at L-1, not L-2

,just so you know LoL

[Jack]

My insider information about post restrictions tells me we should be voting a2rudeboy right now.

I think we went after silver largely thinking about NicolBolas.


l-1 not l-2 hmm?

[lewarcher82]

u did not unvote jack, look at 1106

[Jack]

Yes I know I didn't unvote. I'm voting a2rb. Why would I unvote?

[lewarcher82]

aww, misread the votecount. Sorry. It is L-2, my bad

[Jack]

PranaDevil(4) - volkkan, LynchMePls, curiouskarmadog, evilpacman

With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch
---------------

L-1

[Jack]

I think ckd is most likely for the second scum after a2rb.

[Jack]

Either that or evilpacman. So yeah, like I said earlier.

[evilpacman18]

The scummiest thing I can see from a2's iso is his read switch on you.

[lewarcher82]

EBWOP: vollkan, not volltron, in post 1109. sorry, it's the name of a player from another game LoooL

[vollkan]

prana. Vote a2rudeboy.

I don't like a prana lynch, he's putting too much effort into the game compared to a2.

Effort is a nulltell.

I will put PD at L-2 because he's scum anyway.

Putting too much effort into a game isn't usually a town tell, especially if it's an unprecedented amount of effort.

unvote, vote: PranaDevil

Why is PD scum?

Volltron: there was no bw on silver, so it is correct to state that you actually started the events that lead to his claim and to his death. Why
shouldn't Icall you a fisher?

I accept that it was because of me that he claimed. I don't think I acted unreasonably, though:
- Jack's D1 play strongly suggested that the presence of a post restriction would indicate scum; and he specifically asked anybody who spotted one to point it out
- Silver appeared to have a post-restriction
- Accordingly, I pointed it to Jack

"Fisher" has negative connotations, and it implies that a person is chasing power roles for no good reason. While the consequences of my pointing out Silver's PR to Jack were bad, my motivations weren't.

[Jack]

Effort is a nulltell.

Always lynch the scummy person who is putting in less effort. People who post more have more chances to post scummy things and to trigger confirmation bias.

[evilpacman18]

I will put PD at L-2 because he's scum anyway.

Putting too much effort into a game isn't usually a town tell, especially if it's an unprecedented amount of effort.

unvote, vote: PranaDevil

Why is PD scum?

Looking through PD's iso, I noticed that he refused to vote for Espeonage the entire day and was quite integral in getting him NOT lynched like he should have been. He did vote ESP only after the wagon had let off steam. On that same day, he was very hypocritical, jumping on the neighbor thing asking for claims when he had got on jack about rolefishing slightly before that.

I think it's safe to say PD is scum just based on his D1 associations with Espeonage. If PD flips scum, my scumread on jack will be moot.

[vollkan]

I will put PD at L-2 because he's scum anyway.

Putting too much effort into a game isn't usually a town tell, especially if it's an unprecedented amount of effort.

unvote, vote: PranaDevil

Why is PD scum?

Looking through PD's iso, I noticed that he refused to vote for Espeonage the entire day and was quite integral in getting him NOT lynched like he should have been. He did vote ESP only after the wagon had let off steam. On that same day, he was very hypocritical, jumping on the neighbor thing asking for claims when he had got on jack about rolefishing slightly before that.

I think it's safe to say PD is scum just based on his D1 associations with Espeonage. If PD flips scum, my scumread on jack will be moot.

This is interesting.

Background summary of the history of your suspicions:
ISO1-7: You make your case against me
ISO8: You unvote me until "people are more willing to listen" and vote Jack
ISO10: You say I am still scum, but vote PD switch to PD for the reasons you just quoted
ISO11: LMP is town
ISO13: Unexplained vote for Snake (whom you hadn't mentioned up to this point)

This is where things become odd-
ISO16: "My three suspicions so far: vollkan, and two people whose lynch vollkan wasn't against at some point." Two points:

1)The first , and most notable, thing that stands out about this is that your suspicion of PD has vanished (obviously, PD couldn't be one of those "two people", because I've been consistently in favour of PD's lynch).
2) In your view, who are those two people?

And, of course, then we hit ISO17: "I will put PD at L-2 because he's scum anyway." So, you didn't think PD was scum in ISO16, but he is now?

[LimMePls]

I have nothing new to add. PD is still scum. His lynch is made of win. Srsly.