kunkstar7 wrote:@muffin: What are the results of your iso reads? Who are your top suspects for today?
Some might be tempted to call me out for Information instead of Analysis, but bear with me, there's a point to this:
The first thing I did was go back and read everybody and did what I call a "namedrop analysis". I found that of the 5 of us still alive, Lowell was talked about the most, and Pom was talked about the least.
- Sevei mentioned Lowell the most, and barely talked about Pom at all.
- Kunkstar talked about Lowell and myself the most
- Lowell barely mentioned any of us
- Pom talked about lowell the most but only a little more than she talked about the rest of us
The purpose of this was to determine if people's play seemed to be revolving around each other, which I figured would be indicative of an attitude of teamplay. Note that I didn't keep track of players who are now dead because the other scum faction is out of the game and the current scum faction is intact.
The next thing I did was go back and look at wagons, and what struck me is that in
this votecount, both werewolves were on the wagon along with pom, lowell, and kunkstar. Since I know that I am town, I can conclude that at least 1 scum was on that wagon with the werewolves, and it wouldn't surprise me if both were. This jives with the townish read I have on sevei.
After doing that I re-read everyone who's still alive in iso. Normally I'm loathe to give lists ranking everyone from obvtown to obvscum because it gives scum a better idea of who they should target for nightkill, however I will give my top suspect, and that is Lowell.
I find it odd that someone with only ~20 posts this game was mentioned so much more frequently than the rest of us.
Notes about lowell: Shortly after I joined the game I was Lowell's #1 pick for scum (
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p2568999 ) but a scant 3 posts later he's changed his tone to "if Chess is scum, Muffin is town." Scum motivations for such a thing could easily be attempting to set up a mislynch on me the following day.
This prediction didn't strike me as much of a big deal at first, but having read Lowell in iso a few times this post sticks out more and more. The key phrase, IMO, is "....so that we'll settle on Pom or myself as a compromise." The
or
is what I find compelling; it's as if Lowell is setting it up to be a choice of
either
him
or
pom, when it could just as easily be both.
One's self-meta cannot be known without invalidating it.
I was actually convinced singer and Nexus were scum about halfway through Day 1. My scumdar seems to break when I'm not town. 
