Mini 1073: Autumn Mafia - Game Over!

[Xine]

I very much agree that this situation is looking a bit dire.

Ice

on day one you said that this game would open up when we had some dead bodies to annylize, here is a picture of each of these bodies at the moment of their largest wagons:

Shattered Viewpoint

(2) -

FeRnAnDo

,

Zinive

Zinive

(6) - ICEninja, Me=Weird, Equinox, Antihero, Oso, Llamarble

FeRnAnDo

(7) - netlava, Llamarble, ICEninja, Xine, Me=Weird, Antihero, Oso

lots of bodies, let's get some annalisis!
based on place on these wagons, I'm gonna say
VOTE: Antihero

[AGar]

People seemed to stick to their guns, as another citizen snapped into being awake from a brief slumber.

Votecount 2.2

Antihero (1)

- Xine

ICEninja (2)

- Me=Weird, Oso

Llamarble (0)

-

Me=Weird (0)

-

Netopalis (0)

Oso (2)

- Antihero, ICEninja

PerArdua (1)

- Equinox

Equinox (0)

-

Xine (0)

-

Not Voting (3)

- Llamarble, Netopalis, PerArdua

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lynch.

Two players

are the current wagon leader(s), at

L-3

Deadline is Sunday, November 7th, 2010 @ 11:59 PM EDT

Netopalis replaces Netlava. Thanks, Netapolis!

[Equinox]

I still haven't read. >_>

BUT! I promise (and I don't break promises ) that I shall get it done later this evening, and you guys are top priority. I love you guys, even if it's unrequited... :sniff:

I have a number of things I'd like to look at in Day 1 that also concerns the cases brought forth today, so sit tight.

For right now:

I'm a bit miffed that you guys just glossed over my case for a PerArdua lynch today. The point that someone brought up that it gives the mafia an extra kill somewhat makes sense... but only if we lynch correctly today. Otherwise, we're pretty fucked if AGar's running a 3:9 or even a 2:1:9. (I'm not too sure about 2:2:8, as that's much more swingy and statistically less probable.)

But... I guess I'll decide after I read and get my bearings. Yeah.

Anyway, on to things that make much more sense.

If he's picking up the prods and not posting, that = epic superscumfail.

I don't think scum lurk THAT hard; even lurker Zorblag-scum posted at least once a day until RL made him forget (Open 233).

To take a speculatory stab, I suspect that PerArdua picked up the Day 1 prod, since he logged in after AGar sent it, IIRC. I'm sure he hasn't picked up the Day 2 reminder, though, as he hasn't logged on since October 27.

Basically, I accuse him of setting an atmosphere where its urgent that a lynch take place and that I can see scum using it to go after low activity players. And that is exactly what I see happening because at that point his vote is on, you guessed it, Fernando.

How was ICEninja cultivating this kind of atmosphere? The way I read his posts was a push for more activity, not less; he merely emphasized the need to generate content as much as possible given short deadlines, and he's never pushed for a quick lynch. Your points here against ICEninja do not hold water.

...and I honestly don't see how Oso goes from Step 1 to "OMG ICEninja played me like a fiddle RAGE." Gaps in logic detected!

Latter half of post concerns FeRnAnDo wagon, which I have promised to do later. Skipping for right now.

Second post won't be coming. What I thought as as a second obvious scum may not be that at all. Got excited I might have caught two for one, need to think on it some.

Well, then, please present the thought process that you had at the time.

Sure, the odds aren't great, but it's all the more glory if we somehow manage to win.
I hope the other town players will take a similar attitude, since we'll all have more fun (it is a game after all) and a much better chance of winning.

Right. This makes me want to replace out even more.

Dude. Don't fall for that. If you're town, and I believe you are, you know you're right; don't let a case like this one pull you down.

At least if you won't try for the game, try for me and the others who believe in you? :\

Me=Weird sees the light, it seems. Hoping to hear his thoughts after he's looked stuff over.

Splitting this off, as I have a couple of things that need extra special attention.

[Antihero]

I very much agree that this situation is looking a bit dire.

Ice

on day one you said that this game would open up when we had some dead bodies to annylize, here is a picture of each of these bodies at the moment of their largest wagons:

Shattered Viewpoint

(2) -

FeRnAnDo

,

Zinive

Zinive

(6) - ICEninja, Me=Weird, Equinox, Antihero, Oso, Llamarble

FeRnAnDo

(7) - netlava, Llamarble, ICEninja, Xine, Me=Weird, Antihero, Oso

lots of bodies, let's get some annalisis!
based on place on these wagons, I'm gonna say
VOTE: Antihero

What was that? I couldn't hear you over the sound of the chainsaws and OMGUS!

Your conclusion of my "placement" on the Zinive is rather unfair, as I replaced in after the wagon formed. But you conveniently left that out. Oh, and Oso is also late on both wagons. Double standard much?

@M=W:

It's a slip because only scum would know that it's a vig, because of their team size/power. There have been numerous case's of two scum groups in a MN. Usually 2 groups of 2, so ICEninja's probably on team of 3, or with lots of power. Furthermore, why was it a bad shot just because SV wasn't on the lynch? Parts of that post also seemed like AtE, and there was the early game obsession with short deadlines.

The wording and diction of this post is sincere to me. You asked questions of Ice and explained what you thought the scumtells were.

Have to throw in with Me=Weird here. Don't want to get in a what I think the set-up might be discussion, when I don't have time to sit and think on it properly but M=W has an excellent point. ICEninja blew straight through any other killing roles right to vig.

Short on time and I wanted to re-read after the night-flips before getting into this day but that is glaring enough for a vote. His(ICEninja's) post needs some explanation.

First sentence, right off the bat, is sheeping. Second sentence is awkwardly worded and looks like scum trying to avoid a slip. Oso never says why the third sentence is a scumtell, not to mention it's an oversimplification.

The next paragraph shows that Oso really isn't interested in a response from Ice. There's no specific questioning or anything; this looks like an intent to vote park.

[Equinox]

Okay. Let's do this in order of priority.

OMG IT'S NETOPALIS. Welcome back, sir!

based on place on these wagons, I'm gonna say
VOTE: Antihero

Xine, I would be *very interested* in your reasoning.

If my wall just now is any indication, I dislike the lengths to which Oso is pushing ICEninja. Seen scum do that before. I remember noting his behavior WRT the hammer during twilight, so I'll take a closer look at that and see if it's worth moving off my super awesome policy lynch.

Preview edit: I think I like Antihero more than his predecessor.

[Antihero]

I still haven't read. >_>

BUT! I promise (and I don't break promises ) that I shall get it done later this evening, and you guys are top priority. I love you guys, even if it's unrequited... :sniff:

Equinox, I personally don't like policy lynches. I would rather that the lurker get replaced.

Side note: I hope you really don't believe any of this above post.

[Equinox]

Side note: I hope you really don't believe any of this above post.

I don't. Not even the promise part!

...or do I? >_>

OK, seriously. I wrote that after reading ICEninja go "I only care enough for a quick glance." Definitely uplifting. :<

[ICEninja]

The point that someone brought up that it gives the mafia an extra kill somewhat makes sense... but only if we lynch correctly today.

If we lynch PerArdua today then we're in the exact same boat tomorrow, except we're short whoever scum decides to night kill. We're therefore in an even worse situation day 3 than we are today. No, we don't lynch him. Our odds of either PerArdua or (preferably and) whoever we decide to lynch are the same regardless if he is mod killed or not, but we're denying a night kill by allowing the mod kill. The only argument for killing him today is the pool for who we lynch tomorrow is smaller.

Once again, to anyone who feels like there could be two mafia groups, just look at the flavor. There could be an SK, but the flavor is extremely indicative of there being a vig. If it is an SK then scum wouldn't know conclusively anyway, so it isn't even scummy to say that I have too much information. The likelihood of there being 2 scum families is low enough without even reading the flavor text.

Dude. Don't fall for that. If you're town, and I believe you are, you know you're right; don't let a case like this one pull you down.

It wasn't even a case, it was just him being an ass. There's a difference.

Looking at Xine's presentation of important votes, I'd agree that Anti and Oso are the scummiest looking. It bears worth looking at those who were trying to lynch Zinive despite the PR claim, as scum knew at that point he was telling the truth and gained more from killing him. I might at some point go back and look at who did that.

So yeah. I'm good with pushing an Oso wagon, and we aren't lynching PerArdua. I'm sorry that my care for this game has plummeted, I'll still play but you're just going to have to deal with me being pissed at this game.

[Antihero]

Iceninja, please read

[Equinox]

Our odds of either PerArdua or (preferably and) whoever we decide to lynch are the same regardless if he is mod killed or not, but we're denying a night kill by allowing the mod kill. The only argument for killing him today is the pool for who we lynch tomorrow is smaller.

My experience with BaM games have been that the modkills occur at the end of the day following the lynch, and the game still goes into night. The scum get to kill, regardless.

...and your post just had me thinking. Initially, what I'd planned was a lynch of PerArdua today and then whatever lynch tomorrow, but you're right. Doing this will give scum an extra NK.

Yeah, I suck. lol

Unvote, Vote: Oso

L-2

[Equinox]

EBWOP: And I fail at editing, too. That first part was unnecessary. e_e

[Equinox]

Triple-posting to ask:

This claim therefore doesn't reduce my suspicion of Zinive (actually increases it by Bayes' rule, since a scum in his position would probably claim a PR whereas a town player has a smaller chance of doing so), but

because lynching PRs is bad it does make Fernando look like a better lynch

.

I realize that, at this point, you firmly believed in a FeRnAnDo-Zinive scum team. ...but why did you say, "because lynching PRs is bad"?

[Llamarble]

In the end I wasn't sure which of them was a better lynch.
I thought claiming a PR implied a ~50-50 chance of scum, made higher by Zinive's scummy actions.
On the other hand, I thought Fernando was scum too, and figured it would be less damaging to be wrong about him since he hadn't claimed a PR, so I was okay with lynching him instead.

[Xine]

Exinox, Are you trying to imply that Llamarble somehow knew that Fernando was a cop?

[Equinox]

No. I'm trying to figure out if Llamarble knew something about Zinive that we didn't; the wording in that paragraph was odd.

Post 262 is confusing me right now.

[Equinox]

Oh, Xine, before you go:

Post 195, you voted for FeRnAnDo "because he's scum," and you sounded pretty certain. How did you come to this conclusion?

[Xine]

my general impression of Llamarble is that he posts so "cleverly" as to be barely understandable, making sure to mention often that he is town, and has a transparent play style. One would have to run an in depth analysis to determine any sort of statistical data on said pattern.

Nija Equinox: Obv, I wasn't. False sense of confidance I guess...His posts were scummy, both of them.

[Llamarble]

Sorry, I'll try to be clearer:
I believed Zinive and Fernando were scum.
I also understood that it was possible I could be wrong.
Thus when choosing which of the two to lynch, I thought Zinive claiming a power role made Fernando a better lynch.
That way in the event that I was wrong and Zinive was telling the truth, we would not have lynched a power role.

[Oso]

Welcome Netopolis, glad to have you.

..
What? Maybe I'm just town, and genuinely feel how I say I feel and you recognized that. I'm terrible at scum, or at least I was the game I played it.

You're giving me way too much credit for something I'm probably not capable of.

Most of your case against me is "Oh wait so you WERE scummy for the reasons I said yesterday then decided that they weren't scum tells."

And yes, I was referring to your hop from Llama to Zinive to Fernando. For the most part, scum's goal isn't to be off the wagon, it is generally more to make a mislynch happen. You misinterpreted what I meant by safe.

..

First bold, not buying it. I don't trust anything that smells of <He/I/They> are just too unintelligent to think of something, especially from the person I just accused of doing it.

Second part still fails, SV's willingness to hammer means the lynch is going to happen. The safest thing to do in that case, from a scum perspective, is to let him do it. Scum knew SV wasn't in their group.

..
241: For all that you go on about ICE obsessing about the deadlines, and voting the lurker, that didn't seem to stop you from voting fernando, who flaked. I know you said that you would, but I don't see why you hammered someone you thought was town when someone else expressed willingness to hammer.

Out of curiosity, who else did you think you'd caught as scum?

..

(I'll answer the bold quote along with the next quote) Basically, because of just that, I said I would and fobbing off not doing what I said I would onto someone else simply to try an avoid responsibility for something would just be wrong (in or out of a game). I gave a time I would I would cast my vote if Fernando hadn't shown and I did that. As to hammering someone I figured was town, I covered that already but I'll hit it again. From some of the discussion yesterday, I came to the decision in my own mind that if it came down to having no clear lynch and a lurker was on the block, then I would cast my vote so that we could cut our losses. I think it was Netlava who mentioned (before he replaced out) that Fernando logged after he was lynched so it seems my decision in his case was wrong. He might have come back in but at the time of my vote, he seemed like a good candidate for Mod-Kill at the end of today and if that happened we'd be looking at 2 possible Mod-Kill candidates right now instead of one.

..

Second post won't be coming. What I thought as as a second obvious scum may not be that at all. Got excited I might have caught two for one, need to think on it some.

Well, then, please present the thought process that you had at the time.

Granted, general thread trust in me at the moment is pretty low but I do promise if it gets to where I have to claim, I'll happily answer that and the bolded in my above post.

..
Ice is most likely town. This vote is fail, as is Oso's. M=W seems to actually believe he caught a scum slip;

Oso doesn't, he's faking it.

Reasons please. I can't defend myself without actually knowing why you think that.

Also at Antihero, since when do we use flavor in a mini-normal to

confirm

roles.

[Equinox]

Granted, general thread trust in me at the moment is pretty low but I do promise if it gets to where I have to claim, I'll happily answer that and the bolded in my above post.

Why not now, before you forget?

[Antihero]

@Oso: Reading is good.

Also at Antihero, since when do we use flavor in a mini-normal to

confirm

roles.

Did I ever say anything about

confirming

a role (whatever that means)? And did I say anything about flavor, either? (Hint: the answer to the last two questions are NO)

SV makes sense as a vig target (for distractingly obnoxious play).

Why are you still debating this? Is it because you are still insistant that Ice commited a scumslip? Or is it something to nitpick at?

[Antihero]

Oh, and Xine, just in case you thought you could get away with ignoring this.

Xine, I would be *very interested* in your reasoning.

[Xine]

You are really upset about this vote. I made a gut move, based on the imression I got from viewing some data. you only need to fear this if you are guilty, right?

[Equinox]

I totally forgot about that. >_<

You are really upset about this vote. I made a gut move, based on the imression I got from viewing some data. you only need to fear this if you are guilty, right?

And you didn't address Antihero's concern about said data and your conclusions...

Well, if this is a "gut move," there's got to be some basis for it. I'd like to hear about that.

[Antihero]

I totally forgot about that. >_<

You are really upset about this vote. I made a gut move, based on the imression I got from viewing some data. you only need to fear this if you are guilty, right?

And you didn't address Antihero's concern about said data and your conclusions...

Well, if this is a "gut move," there's got to be some basis for it. I'd like to hear about that.

^This, this, and this

And yes, I am upset that apparently I'm playing in a different game than some other people.