Mafia 119: MURDER AT HOTEL DEATH(GAME OVER)

[RedCoyote]

I'll prod a2rudeboy.

Vote Count

Jack(0) -

evilpacman18(1)

- PranaDevil
curiouskarmadog(0) -
LynchMePls(0) -
vollkan(0) -

a2rudeboy(1)

- Jack
lewarcher82(0) -

PranaDevil(4)

- volkkan, LynchMePls, curiouskarmadog, evilpacman18

Not Voting(2)

- a2rudeboy, lewarcher82

With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch

Deadline: November 18th, 2010, 2:00 AM, Central Standard Time

[evilpacman18]

Vollkan, the double negative in my post is confusing you.

Those two people are jack and PD and my point was that you have supported voting for them so why do I become stupid when I voted for them? Because it would be contradictory of you to tell me I'm VI for voting them, I must be VI for voting you and "You're an idiot" is an extremely scummy defense.

So you and PD are a scum team. A2 and LMP are town. Jack's alignment will come if I see either PD's or a2's flip. And that's everybody I can think of without looking at the OP.

[lewarcher82]

Vollkan, the double negative in my post is confusing you.

Those two people are jack and PD and my point was that you have supported voting for them so why do I become stupid when I voted for them? Because it would be contradictory of you to tell me I'm VI for voting them, I must be VI for voting you and "You're an idiot" is an extremely scummy defense.

So you and PD are a scum team. A2 and LMP are town. Jack's alignment will come if I see either PD's or a2's flip. And that's everybody I can think of without looking at the OP.

If I was roleblocked, it would naturally *not* imply that my failed target is scum, cuz scum would not know whom I was shooting, especially considering that I was replacing during the night, so no1 could anticipate what my readings of the game would have been.

Still I have a question to everyone. Why are we assuming that only two players are scum? This was a 18 player game, 2 scum died, I see no reason to assume they were just 4. if they were 5, then we would be on a near-mylo situation (I call near-mylo any situation in which mylo's risks are mitigated by the presence of a living vig).

Volltron: there was no bw on silver, so it is correct to state that you actually started the events that lead to his claim and to his death. Why
shouldn't Icall you a fisher?

I accept that it was because of me that he claimed. I don't think I acted unreasonably, though:
- Jack's D1 play strongly suggested that the presence of a post restriction would indicate scum; and he specifically asked anybody who spotted one to point it out
- Silver appeared to have a post-restriction
- Accordingly, I pointed it to Jack

"Fisher" has negative connotations, and it implies that a person is chasing power roles for no good reason. While the consequences of my pointing out Silver's PR to Jack were bad, my motivations weren't.

yes, "fisher" was written to provoke you a little
my problem is, however, that it seems

really really evident

that silver was not *shaking head* out of the fear that revealing post-restriction related information was forbidden. Also note that Jack is constantly referring to his own insider info, but he did not enter in any details, probably for the very same reason. So how come you guys did not realise that before bw'ing him?

[evilpacman18]

The way I learned it, the number of scum is usually around the square root of all the players. So since 18 is pretty close to 16, I just assumed there would be 4 scum.

[Jack]

Well, I suppose I'll hammer prana soon.

[lewarcher82]

I am never confortable with letting one day finish with one player who didn't even post a single line, and at the same time I do not like to be a non-voter for such a long time. I am not hammering, but I rather place my

vote: a2rudeboy

and wait for the prod-time to expire.

[PranaDevil]

The way I learned it, the number of scum is usually around the square root of all the players. So since 18 is pretty close to 16, I just assumed there would be 4 scum.

Not had much free time this weekend, so haven't had chance to properly go through those ISO's I wanted to, however something I did see in passing was this, when it really doesn't add up to what you've said above, namely that you claim me and Vollkan are scum, but Jack's alignment comes in depending on my flip. Which to me tells me that you've gone from "possibly five scum" to "must be 4".

Incidentally. LMP needs to be getting all up in your case for saying you know how many people are in the scum team just like it was apparently scummy for me to "know" there was only 1 scum team when my knowledge of normal games is there should be only one scum team. After all, if he doesn't then it's hypocritical.

(Incidentally, it's not the square root of the players, it should be an equal amount of mislynches as actual lynches to win, on average I've found this works out to about 25% of the players before taking into account other roles).

[lewarcher82]

Welcome back prana. Since you are at L-1, may I ask what is your opinion on the number of mafia? In other words, is it mylo or do we have a ml?

[vollkan]

Vollkan, the double negative in my post is confusing you.

Those two people are jack and PD and my point was that you have supported voting for them so why do I become stupid when I voted for them? Because it would be contradictory of you to tell me I'm VI for voting them, I must be VI for voting you and "You're an idiot" is an extremely scummy defense.

So you and PD are a scum team. A2 and LMP are town. Jack's alignment will come if I see either PD's or a2's flip. And that's everybody I can think of without looking at the OP.

This makes absolutely no sense.

For starters, I haven't ever supported Jack's lynch, so your argument on him fails right there. As for PD, I haven't criticised your reasons for voting him (FWIW, I think they are weak, but they are at least directed at rational reasons for suspicion, rather than playstyle, so I'm not going to complain ). And my defence against you was not simply "You're an idiot"; I went through in detail why your case was lousy (ie. a playstyle attack)

Still I have a question to everyone. Why are we assuming that only two players are scum? This was a 18 player game, 2 scum died, I see no reason to assume they were just 4. if they were 5, then we would be on a near-mylo situation (I call near-mylo any situation in which mylo's risks are mitigated by the presence of a living vig).

A game with a 13:5 (town:scum) setup has 27.78% scum. The standard normal game has a 9:3 setup, which is 25% scum. If the setup was 14:4, then there'd be 22.2% scum. Since this game appears power-role heavy, it follows that it's even more likely to have a higher proportion of scum than a normal game. Thus, it follows that it is more likely MYLO (5:3) than not (6:2).

So, you've made a good point

That said, I don't think No Lynch is a good idea in the circumstances, even though it is most likely MYLO. Even if we No Lynch, there is still a risk of insta-loss (if both the scumkill and vigkill hit town). Ie:
A) If Lew is scum, then No Lynch basically equals a loss
B) If Lew is town, then No Lynch still carries a risk of loss. The only way to eliminate that risk would be for Lew not to kill but, in that case, there is a high likelihood that, come tomorrow, our situation is exactly the same as now minus Lew, which has negligible information-advantage.

my problem is, however, that it seems really really evident that silver was not *shaking head* out of the fear that revealing post-restriction related information was forbidden. Also note that Jack is constantly referring to his own insider info, but he did not enter in any details, probably for the very same reason. So how come you guys did not realise that before bw'ing him?

I can't see how any of what you've said amounts to fishing. You seem to be assuming that, despite the three points I raised in my previous post (which, in sum, said "Silver is very likely scum"), I should have hesitated on the purely speculative basis that "He might be a power role".

[curiouskarmadog]

still good with my vote.

[lewarcher82]

Still I have a question to everyone. Why are we assuming that only two players are scum? This was a 18 player game, 2 scum died, I see no reason to assume they were just 4. if they were 5, then we would be on a near-mylo situation (I call near-mylo any situation in which mylo's risks are mitigated by the presence of a living vig).

A game with a 13:5 (town:scum) setup has 27.78% scum. The standard normal game has a 9:3 setup, which is 25% scum. If the setup was 14:4, then there'd be 22.2% scum. Since this game appears power-role heavy, it follows that it's even more likely to have a higher proportion of scum than a normal game. Thus, it follows that it is more likely MYLO (5:3) than not (6:2).

So, you've made a good point

That said, I don't think No Lynch is a good idea in the circumstances, even though it is most likely MYLO. Even if we No Lynch, there is still a risk of insta-loss (if both the scumkill and vigkill hit town). Ie:
A) If Lew is scum, then No Lynch basically equals a loss
B) If Lew is town, then No Lynch still carries a risk of loss. The only way to eliminate that risk would be for Lew not to kill but, in that case, there is a high likelihood that, come tomorrow, our situation is exactly the same as now minus Lew, which has negligible information-advantage.

I agree. The whole analysis is very much correct. Anyway, I am not suggesting nl. I only think that the reactions of some players to this problem may be extremely interesting. For instance, if I were town and I were at L-1 on mylo, I would be posting a lot more content and a lot more protests and complaints than prana is doing... wouldn't you?

Moreover: if the absolute majority of town (4) asks me to nokill, I will not shoot. You guys decide.
Just an observation, tho. Assume we are on mylo: if we mislynch and I nk, tomorrow it is 6 with 3 scum, which means gameover.
Wouldn't it be better to say that I will nk if and only if we lynch scum? Cuz if we mislynch, I may be the only chance for us to have a tomorrow...

my problem is, however, that it seems really really evident that silver was not *shaking head* out of the fear that revealing post-restriction related information was forbidden. Also note that Jack is constantly referring to his own insider info, but he did not enter in any details, probably for the very same reason. So how come you guys did not realise that before bw'ing him?

I can't see how any of what you've said amounts to fishing. You seem to be assuming that, despite the three points I raised in my previous post (which, in sum, said "Silver is very likely scum"), I should have hesitated on the purely speculative basis that "He might be a power role".

Your answer is satisfactory. As a matter of fact, I am the kind of player who is very nervous about forcing pr's to claim, so the first thing I noticed as I re-read was: omg, silver was obvpr!!! But I can understand how your points regarding him being scummy also make sense. I can call myself overcautious and temporarily withdraw the question. On the other hand, I did not get real answers by prana on this very point.

[Jack]

I don't know, the 22 player game I was in had 5 mafia. And there aren't very many town pr's this game, just the vig and tracker really, and a gunsmith who can only find the vig. And the scum seem to have pr's.

[Jack]

Well, I suppose 5 is more likely after all.

[PranaDevil]

Normally I would be arguing more, but considering I'm looking for somewhere else to live, and due to looking for work at the same time, have appointments in town to get to, and then at home have jobs to be applying for and housing to keep looking for, I'm afraid making huge efforts to protest my innocence in the game become less of a priority for me.

Anyway, that's neither here nor there. Regards the amount of scum we have left, I really don't know. It depends on who the scum are for one thing, if the mason pairs are town then scum need bulking up more, if they're not and the mason pairs have scum in, then 4 might well be balanced. However if the scum aren't in the mason pairs at all, then a higher number is more likely for balance reasons.

Personally, I haven't a clue. It could be 2 scum, it could be 3 scum. I do know I don't want to just assume that there's only 2, we have a mislynch left, and then screw it up only to find we're fucked and that's it, game over, scum win. So to that end, I'd rather assume we have 3 scum left. At least that means we are (or should be) on our toes more than we might be if we thought there was a mislynch we could deal with.

It's something that unnerves me about LMP's tunnelling actually. If he's town, he would want to find out who the other scum is as well, and he's not, he's focused on getting me lynched. Which makes me worry that if he is scum then it means this mislynch could give them the victory. I can't see why else he would ignore everything else going on and focus on one person so heavily. Surely if he's town he should be considering all possibilities? I also note he still hasn't jumped on evilpacman for his earlier "assumption" on the scum, the same way he jumped on my assumption that there was just one scum team. Which also means he's inconsistant with his views.

[LimMePls]

I also note he still hasn't jumped on evilpacman for his earlier "assumption" on the scum, the same way he jumped on my assumption that there was just one scum team. Which also means he's inconsistant with his views.

There is a massive difference between speculating on the number of scum left on D4 and making posts that plainly state the number of scum teams D1. We have a lot more information now as town to make a somewhat informed decision on how many scum we think are left. On D1 you town had 0 ways of knowing whether there was 1 scum team or 2.

The rest of what you said is still awful. You still need lynching.

[PranaDevil]

I also note he still hasn't jumped on evilpacman for his earlier "assumption" on the scum, the same way he jumped on my assumption that there was just one scum team. Which also means he's inconsistant with his views.

There is a massive difference between speculating on the number of scum left on D4 and making posts that plainly state the number of scum teams D1. We have a lot more information now as town to make a somewhat informed decision on how many scum we think are left. On D1

you town

had 0 ways of knowing whether there was 1 scum team or 2.

The rest of what you said is still awful. You still need lynching.

Ta muchly.

unvote;
Vote: LynchMePls

[Jack]

unvote, vote:prana

[evilpacman18]

End of the day?

[lewarcher82]

apparently we have a hammer, so yes, evil

[RedCoyote]

I'm going to start looking for a replacement for rudeboy unless he tells me otherwise. He picked up his prod but never posted.

Vote Count

Jack(0) -
evilpacman18(0) -
curiouskarmadog(0) -

LynchMePls(1)

- PranaDevil
vollkan(0) -

a2rudeboy(1)

- lewarcher82
lewarcher82(0) -

PranaDevil(5)

- volkkan, LynchMePls, curiouskarmadog, evilpacman18, Jack

Not Voting(1)

- a2rudeboy,

With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch

Deadline: November 18th, 2010, 2:00 AM, Central Standard Time

LYNCH!

[RedCoyote]

volkkan, LynchMePls, curiouskarmadog, and evilpacman began wrapping up a new rope from the lobby ceiling.

lewarcher looked around uncomfortably. rudeboy hadn't even woken up yet, and already the guests were calling for PranaDevil to give himself up. "still good with my vote", curiouskarmadog said as LynchMePls began tapping his foot. lewarcher held strong though, it wasn't he who gave the final nod. With Jack's approval, the group hoisted the somber PranaDevil onto the chair. With one swift kick,

*thunk*

gravity was still working properly. LynchMePls began sifting through all of his belongings, looking for the sure sign that PranaDevil was an enemy presence in this hotel. A watch, some change, and, oh a memo from the Sombra Corporation.

• Congratulations on your promotion! Sombra has decided that your contributions to the company have been above and beyond our normal standards, so they have elevated you to your current level. You are now qualified to lead a hit squad...

PranaDevil, Sombra Mafia Investigation-Immune Godfather, lynched Day 4

Approximately 16 days have been banked for tomorrow's deadline.

Night 4 has now begun. You have 72 hours starting now until the day begins.

[RedCoyote]

Lightning flashes across the dark, empty room. A crack is heard in the far distance.

*flash* 1...2...3... *crack*

Jack laid still. Cold, icy rain pitterpattered on the large window outside his room. He couldn't sleep. He hadn't been able to really sleep since he got here. He was always tempted to jump up and scream at the shadows. The killings always happened at night, he thought to himself. Sure, he was a killer himself at this point, but it was justified, right? He looked outside for a second when he saw another flash in the corner of his eye.

*flash* 1...2...*crack* *squeakkkk...*

Jack shot up and looked around. His pupils widened even more as he scanned the room over. It didn't make sense that everyone stayed away from one another, but, then again, he wouldn't want to be trapped in a room with a murderer either. He didn't get out of bed. He forced himself to stay in bed. His body was just too exhausted; it needed rest.

*flash* 1...*crack*

Jack closed his weary eyes one last time. Trying desperately to pretend everything was alright.

*flash* *crack* *stab* *squirt* *SLAM!*

Jack, Vanilla Townie, pierced through the heart Night 4

Day 5 begins momentarily...

[RedCoyote]

Day 5 Begins

Vote Count

evilpacman18(0) -
curiouskarmadog(0) -
LynchMePls(0) -
vollkan(0) -
a2rudeboy(0) -
lewarcher82(0) -

Not Voting(6)

- evilpacman18, curiouskarmadog, LynchMePls, volkkan, a2rudeboy, lewarcher82

With 6 alive, it is 4 to lynch

Deadline: December 5th, 2010, 1:30 AM, Central Standard Time

[lewarcher82]

since we lynched mafia, I decided not to shoot, according to what discussed in post 1133 and 1135.

I will not be able to post for the whole weekend, except perhaps tomorrow in the afternoon (Berlin-Rome time zone), so I will write a copule of things and hope we can focus on them:

1) scum killing Jack is weird. Could very well be an attempt at framing a2rudeboy. But I am still wondering how the hell he survived my shot the other night.
2) Prana was a GF. GF is a very strong role. It would be weird for scum to have a GF, a watcher AND a role blocker. So there are two further options:
2a) there is a town doctor who save a2rudeboy;
2b) there is a town roleblocker who did not want me to shoot.
3) Jack was a VT. Which means he was lying about his inside-information on post-restriction.
4) if there are 2 scums left, we are on mylo; if there is only 1, we have ml's. Unless I will find myself in utter and strong disagreement with the rest of you, I will keep night-acting according to what the majority of town expects me to do.

[curiouskarmadog]

2c) or you are lying.

going back to reread