Newbie 1022 - Game Over

[Kingcheese]

Regarding my comment about Eggy, I understand know that I should not have typed that, but instead typed something such as: Is it considered Pro or Anti Town to discuss PR Roles in order to justify ones play thus far?

Vas answered this question in a later post picking up on what I was hinting. I should have elaborated more in that first post #180. Clearly my mistake.

HOOOOL-DUP

Didn't a number of us

already

explicitly warn Avish away from discussing PRs before you made this post? Are you claiming ignorance to those posts?

Good you possibly find it and quote it for me? In all honesty I guess I must have missed it. I'll search for it a little later if you didn't quote it. Have school now.

[Kingcheese]

Bah grammar and spelling fail.

[AurorusVox]

@KC

Be very careful when you're talking about PRs. It is not a good idea to discuss them in case someone is role-fishing you. If you don't theorise about PRs you can't accidentally crumb (reveal your role).

This obviously goes both ways, since talking about PRs can be construed as role-fishing or being role-fished. I'm fairly sure someone else mentioned it too, but I can't find it right now. If anyone remembers warning against it, please jump in to provide the quote.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Official Vote Count

drmyshottyizsik - 2 (TheLonging, Kingcheese)
Avish - 3 (VasudeVa, Leech, LordChronos)
Leech - 1 (Avish)
AurorusVox - 1 (drmyshottyizsik)
VasudeVa - 1 (AurorusVox)

Not Voting - 1 (EggyLv999)

5 to Lynch.

Click for Deadline

[VasudeVa]

Little time here. I would like to remind people that deadline is 3 days. No lynching is a TERRIBLE idea 99% of the time outside of MyLo(Mislynch or Lose.). Lynching, on the other hand, even if not on scum, helps us narrow down scum, perhaps find out how scum contributed to the mislynch and so forth.

So I'd like people to finally decide on their lynch candidate for the day. It is obvious who I want deadz, but Eggy is not voting, shotty, AV and Avish are on one man(/woman ) wagons, so close to deadline.

We also need to time to discuss claims too, if ever. So either convince people to get on your wagons or decide on a larger wagon.

[AurorusVox]

=_=" deadline organisation post...

Would anyone consider joining me on this delicious

Vas wagon

, or should I look to someone else? My main point against him is his inconsistency in his

confidence

of LordChronos being scum #2 (which incidentally makes no sense with Avish scum #1 imo), where he goes from "umm, ahh" on LC to "I would speedlynch him" without explaining the shift.

I'm still down for a

Shotty lynch

. If I can't get a VV lynch then I definitely want to get Shotty out of here. His play has been scummy and VIish and I can't see it getting any better - his willingness to hammer Avish for fun takes the biscuit - and there's also the argument of night-kill PR odds which is still clanging around in the back of my mind.

A byproduct of my VV suspicion is that I'm a not all that comfortable with an

Avish lynch

, but she's not a

terrible

candidate for the noose today. Some pre-emptive defensiveness, tilted paranoia, and not following through with her lines of enquiry. If it was between an Avish lynch and a no lynch, I would vote for Avish.

Out of nowhere last minute lynch candidate moment!

I could also get on board with an

Eggy lynch

if absolutely necessary, since he has done pretty much naff all for the whole day (could go as far as to accuse him of active lurking), has resisted answering questions, and seems to be fencesitting to see which wagon he can get away with voting on. All in all it looks like he's made an effort to be read as null :\ But a Shotty lynch is infinitely superior to an Eggy lynch, and if you're going to go for Eggy you may as well go for Shotty instead. Kay? Kay.

I currently do not want to lynch: Leech, TheLonging, KingCheese, LordChronos, AurorusVox.

[Leech]

I also have taken into consideration Leech's strong argument against Avish and I believe it is compelling and logical. But I do not believe Avish is or should be lynched Night 1. As stated above I support a Shotty lynch for this night.

You say it's a logical case, and then you still push for a Shotty lynch which is the least logical course of action to take in this situation? That doesn't make sense. Shotty's lynch is PL, nothing more. If you can find a single instance where he's said anything that can reflect on his alignment, feel free to post it. It simply can't be done. Avish on the other hand, imagine this, is actually scummy. Her actions are legit scumtells. When you look at the way the two players have played this first phase, we have a better shot at lynching scum in Avish.

A byproduct of my VV suspicion is that I'm a not all that comfortable with an Avish lynch, but she's not a terrible candidate for the noose today.

Except that Avish is the scummiest player. It's actually getting frustrating that people continue to ignore the blatant scumtells from Avish. Fluff, pre-emptive defending, opportunistic voting, paranoia, OMGUS, appeals to emotion...it goes on and on. It makes no sense to me how you guys will condone lynches of people who are "anti-town" at the very best over someone that's actually been playing a scummy game. Shotty is the lynch that can wait until later. He's not destroying this game, he's pretty much ignoring it. We can PL him after we lynch scum. Right now, we should try to actually lynch scum. Anyone who says that the Shotty lynch is anything other than a PL is full of it. There is absolutely nothing indicative of his alignment in his posts.

there's also the argument of night-kill PR odds which is still clanging around in the back of my mind.

There might not even be PR's in this game. You guys need to stop using that as a reason to lynch. While it's true you shouldn't try to narrow down potential PR's, using that as an actual reason to lynch someone is absurd. There's a reason you don't request a claim until you are ready to hammer. The fact that TL asked for a claim extremely early is not a reason to lynch Shotty. If anything, it's more reason to suspect TL for asking for the claim to begin with. He's played enough games to know when to request a claim.

[LordChronos]

Reasons why you should vote Avish today:

Avish has voted opportunistically. Avish's vote, 3 days before deadline, is an OMGUS vote on Leech, without much scumhunting or many arguments to back it up. Avish is being contradictory by saying she is asking newbie questions while simultaneously saying she is experienced. Avish is not scumhunting and hasn't been for a while, just defending.

@AV

It's rather unlikely you will get a lynch on VV today.

@Leech, The Longing

TheLonging posted a case against shotty on the last page. Basically it said shotty is scum because he didn't answer his own questions, implies/says he is town, lies, random votes outside the RVS, and doesn't scumhunt. The problem with this case is that it is a list of

anti-town

things shotty has done rather than a list of scummy things. If we didn't have a scummier candidate available, sure I would policy lynch shotty. But we do have a scummier candidate.

[TheLonging]

There might not even be PR's in this game. You guys need to stop using that as a reason to lynch. While it's true you shouldn't try to narrow down potential PR's, using that as an actual reason to lynch someone is absurd. There's a reason you don't request a claim until you are ready to hammer. The fact that TL asked for a claim extremely early is not a reason to lynch Shotty. If anything, it's more reason to suspect TL for asking for the claim to begin with. He's played enough games to know when to request a claim.

Someone didn't vote shotty properly (Avish) and her "vote" put shotty at "L-1", which was a good enough place to ask for a claim.

[LordChronos]

There might not even be PR's in this game. You guys need to stop using that as a reason to lynch. While it's true you shouldn't try to narrow down potential PR's, using that as an actual reason to lynch someone is absurd. There's a reason you don't request a claim until you are ready to hammer. The fact that TL asked for a claim extremely early is not a reason to lynch Shotty. If anything, it's more reason to suspect TL for asking for the claim to begin with. He's played enough games to know when to request a claim.

Someone didn't vote shotty properly (Avish) and her "vote" put shotty at "L-1", which was a good enough place to ask for a claim.

No, a good enough place to ask for a claim would have been if someone was willing to hammer.

[AurorusVox]

Anyone who says that the Shotty lynch is anything other than a PL is full of it. There is absolutely nothing indicative of his alignment in his posts.

His hammer desire on Avish, despite offering ZERO reasoning, and despite Avish being L-2 at the time? His perpetual avoidance of questions to remain a null-tell to those who

try

to scumhunt him? His perpetual avoidance of offering reasoned voting to erase his voting trail?

If these are all considered anti-town rather than scummy, then I'll downgrade Shotty to null. They seem pretty scummy to me, but then again, I've not had too much experience with VIs as town so I'm willing to listen to experience.

---

there's also the argument of night-kill PR odds which is still clanging around in the back of my mind.

There might not even be PR's in this game. You guys need to stop using that as a reason to lynch. While it's true you shouldn't try to narrow down potential PR's, using that as an actual reason to lynch someone is absurd.

I understand that it's not reason enough on its own, but no one is using that as the only reason. The Shotty wagon is a mix of things that wouldn't warrant lynching in and of themselves, but when all combined, add up to make him a decent lynch candidate: PL, in-game anti-town behaviour, (potentially scummyVI elements?), Lynch all VTs.

OTOH, your arguments for the

actual

scumtells on Avish are there. So I can see why you think she's a better lynch today. Like I said, she's not a bad one for the noose. I think VV's bizarre LC inconsistencies are weighing in my decision probably more than they ought to be. I'll ISO her. Watch this space.

---

It looks like the VV ship has sailed. Actually, it's probably too late in the day for me to even agree with his lynch myself.

Unvote

[TheLonging]

There might not even be PR's in this game. You guys need to stop using that as a reason to lynch. While it's true you shouldn't try to narrow down potential PR's, using that as an actual reason to lynch someone is absurd. There's a reason you don't request a claim until you are ready to hammer. The fact that TL asked for a claim extremely early is not a reason to lynch Shotty. If anything, it's more reason to suspect TL for asking for the claim to begin with. He's played enough games to know when to request a claim.

Someone didn't vote shotty properly (Avish) and her "vote" put shotty at "L-1", which was a good enough place to ask for a claim.

No, a good enough place to ask for a claim would have been if someone was willing to hammer.

There was plenty of discussion on this, when people were thinking about discussing this. It was after I asked for a claim but still.

[Avish]

You might as well just lynch me, for crying out loud. I don't really think, of course, that it's good for the town, but if everybody has such suspicion of me than I fear I'm just a distraction. And that is not good for the town either. I'm hoping, I suppose, that reviewing the Case of Avish after the fact will shed some interesting light on the situation and help you find the actual mafia.

Re: Experienced/Inexperienced
I have some experience on another site, but I wouldn't even really say I'm

really

experienced there. I'm somewhat experienced. Games are faster paced and much more casual. There is a lot of spamming, a lot of joking around. The things that got me in trouble here would not get me in trouble there. You boys are much more srs bzns. Not that I'm complaining, mind. I came here looking for that sort of thing, but I underestimated the degree.

I've only survived to the end of one game...where I was PR mafia. In game one the vig offed me along with 5 other townies (he wasn't very good XD) and in the third the SK offed me. Ergo, I'm feeling like it's the norm to die young when I'm town. Heh.


To business:

I don't get an overly mafia feel from Vas. He's going to look rather guilty when I flip town, but his initial challenge and vote on me felt more like prodding than a determined attack. As I attempted to defend myself (which is standard fare where I come from, btw) I dug myself deeper and deeper. By no means am I saying I believe him to be town, I'm just saying to be cautious about declaring him guilty just because he started the wagon that lynched a townie.

No read whatsoever on Shotty. He's bad news, but I don't know if he's mafia. DON'T LYNCH HIM WHEN YOU'RE DONE WITH ME! Ffs. You won't be able to afford another mislynch on a townie at least until you take out one of them at the absolute soonest.

And be careful about putting anyone else at L-1 unless you are quite sure.

He wants to lynch me for the hell of it. He'll do it again and you don't want that. Even if he is mafia there'll be another one. Try to root that one out, first.

Eggy just gives off a bad guy vibe with his posting in general. Do I really have to explain that? I suppose I will if I must, but it seems silly.

It's been stated that Longing is going to look guilty as hell should I flip mafia. But. I. Won't. I caution against considering him innocent when I flip town. If he's mafia he knows damn well what I'm going to flip. It looks like I'm going down. If he's mafia he doesn't need to help it along.

I don't get any mafia vibes off King. Pointing out that something was already discussed is nothing. It's hard to keep track of everything in this game and he's new. I think he's been doing a pretty good job.

I got nothing on AV. He's Mr. Neutral as far as I'm concerned.

Leech. I threw out a couple reasons, but they aren't the main reason. I feel that his timing is rather apt. No, I'm not going to explain that. Scream scumtell until you turn blue in this face. I'm not trying to prevent my lynch.

Oh and,

By all means enlighten us to what, exactly, you learned that can be of any use in this game.

I'm pretty sure I at least implied if not outright stated that I wasn't seeking information for

this

game.


I feel like I'm forgetting things, but I have to dash. Relatives have come to stay for the weekend. Oh, joy.

[drmyshottyizsik]

unvote vote avish

L-1

[AurorusVox]

Shotty do you think Avish is scum or are you just being mischievous?

[drmyshottyizsik]

I think he is scum

[AurorusVox]

*she

Okay, would you care to share your reasons?

[Kingcheese]

*sigh* This is exactly why I think Shotty is the priority lynch today. I don't feel confident lynching Avish at all at the moment despite Leech's pushing. Whenever someone trys to focus attention away from him he somehow figures out to make himself seem more lynchable then before. We are going to have to lynch him eventually. Nows our best oppertunity.

[drmyshottyizsik]

or we could let me live until lylo

[LordChronos]

*sigh* This is exactly why I think Shotty is the priority lynch today. I don't feel confident lynching Avish at all at the moment despite Leech's pushing. Whenever someone trys to focus attention away from him he somehow figures out to make himself seem more lynchable then before. We are going to have to lynch him eventually. Nows our best oppertunity.

Why is today better than tomorrow? (D1 vs. D2)

[VasudeVa]

I don't think that looks like a bus. If it has terrible reasoning, I can accept that it could be scum opportunistically hopping on a mislynch wagon, but when there was the perfect counter-wagon (Shotty) it makes no sense to vote for Avish. I also wholeheartedly disagree with your desires for a speedlynch, and I dislike the premise of setting up subsequent lynches in general. I'm struggling to see the scum motivation for this particular setup though (i.e. scum would generally say "If X flips town, we should lynch Y"), so you've just about evaded gaining my vote for setting up lynches.

Buuuuut you've gained it for something else. You said that you were see-sawing between TL and LC being scum #2. But now you're ultra confident it's LC, so confident that you'd speedlynch him. Inconsistency much? You didn't even explain why this is.

It does look like a bus, fo srs.

He's opening up avenues on voting Avish in case push comes to shove...at the same time indirectly defending her. That's very bus-like, really.

I like to threaten speedlynches. Especially on obvscum, obvbussers(see reply to LC below). Where have I contradicted myself on my LC #2? I did say that TL and LC are gunning for the scummy silver medal olympics.

Let's see, I said that Avish has said things that sound like a frustrated townie. In other words, that she sounds genuine and not scummy. Then I pointed out things that make me think she is scum. This is different from what you said how?

Second, speedlynching is an incredibly anti-town thing to do. All it does (assuming no day abilities for mafia that could screw you over, which is the case in newbie games) is deny information to the town in the event you are wrong. If you were to speed lynch me tomorrow and I flip town, you have just wasted an entire day.

The main difference is: my read evolved. I still do think she's being genuine, but the POWER of the opportunism scumtell is...well, powerful.

You, on the other hand, seem to be opening up the avenue for defending Avish AND giving yourself a reason to vote for her.

LC's ISO:
#0-#5: No mention of Avish whatsoever.
#6: "I am suspicious of Avish but I think she is genuine."

It's pretty clear cut that you are bussing if Avish indeed flips scum.

Regarding my comment about Eggy, I understand know that I should not have typed that, but instead typed something such as: Is it considered Pro or Anti Town to discuss PR Roles in order to justify ones play thus far?

It is VERY antitown. It does not hold any real information because it is purely guesswork that has no proof or evidence. We may not even have PRs at all! PR-Play speculation are not proper explanations of PR-ness. It also lets mafia know a little more about you. Let's say I speculate X is a cop in thread. Mafia might see it as a sign that I am not a cop. (And the only time you really speculate on X being a cop..is if you're not the cop. Unless you're a tricky little S.O.B. . )

The only time we should be discussing PRs is with real flips. If a Mafioso flips roleblocker, we can theorize that we have a doc+cop/no PRs(in fact, the cop should claim at this point = infinite docprotects. Tee hee.). If a Townie flips Doc with no flipped RB's, we have to theorize if a X's claim is true or not. These are a few examples of when we should discuss. Otherwise, we really shouldn't.

[Leech]

*sigh* This is exactly why I think Shotty is the priority lynch today. I don't feel confident lynching Avish at all at the moment despite Leech's pushing. Whenever someone trys to focus attention away from him he somehow figures out to make himself seem more lynchable then before. We are going to have to lynch him eventually. Nows our best oppertunity.

We'll have the same opportunity in every phase. However, we should kill scum first. There's no way I'll let Shotty live until LyLo so he can destroy the game. There is no reason to lynch him right now, though. The fact is, he's playing exactly how I said he would. This style is normal from him. Yeah, it would be nice if he would play (or better yet, if he was replaced by someone who would actually play the game) but that is not a reason to lynch him in this phase at this point. Don't lose sight of the main goal, which is lynching scum.

[Kingcheese]

Here is my reasoning. I'm not convinced Avish is scum. But I'm also not sure if she's town. Like others have mentioned, her posts seem genuine and I can totally buy them, but when Leech posts something about Avish, I feel as if my sense of reasoning is saying: Look KC, she's Scum that's a fairly strong argument. I'm torn with listening to my gut (Avish is town) and listening to my brain (Avish is Scum)

I believe if we mislynch today that puts us at 2/5. Then if we want to lynch shotty then and we go to 2/3 assuming he is town. I'd rather have another day to figure out who is scum without shotty and see where that takes us. If Avish is scum it obviously works better. But I'm not convinced Avish is scum, and we can't afford to mislynch one day and lynch shotty the next day.

[AurorusVox]

KC, the problem with that line of reasoning is that you're assuming shotty would be a mislynch (i.e. town) in which case you're better off NOT lynching him today.

Anyway I dropped by to say that I have a shit-tonne of reading to do so I might not get my re-read of Avish in til close up to the deadline. Rest assured it will be incoming, just not pronto...

[Leech]

Ok... this first quote was posted on the last page:

And I like our chances 2/5 with people who want to play then possibly 1/6 with Shotty. And thats my opinion.

You literally said that you'd rather lynch town than scum. This is completely ignoring the fact that once we lynch scum it would be 1/6, then after the PL in the next phase would be 1/4. That gives us TWO phases after the PL and a total of 4 total phases in this game. That is mathmatically, and intellectually an inferior option.

Now, onto your last post:

Here is my reasoning. I'm not convinced Avish is scum. But I'm also not sure if she's town.

So why are you convinced Shotty is scum? Oh, wait...you aren't. In fact from your overall attitude you seem rather sure that Shotty is town.

Like others have mentioned, her posts seem genuine and I can totally buy them, but when Leech posts something about Avish, I feel as if my sense of reasoning is saying: Look KC, she's Scum that's a fairly strong argument. I'm torn with listening to my gut (Avish is town) and listening to my brain (Avish is Scum)

When you can't back your gut reads with your brain, then they are completely irrational. Gut reads should never be enough alone to lynch, or not lynch.

I'd rather have another day to figure out who is scum without shotty and see where that takes us.

Considering Shotty isn't even playing, letting him survive the phase will still result in a day without him.

If Avish is scum it obviously works better. But I'm not convinced Avish is scum, and

we can't afford to mislynch one day and lynch shotty the next day.

The bold is extremely interesting. Right there you are pretty much stating that you believe Shotty is town. If you believed that Shotty was more than likely scum, you'd have no problem lynching Avish today, and then hitting scum in the next phase. That wouldn't hurt our chances to win at all. Why are you so "torn" about voting for a person that your brain makes you believe she's scum every time I make a case, but you're more than willing to lynch a person that you obviously believe is town?