I don't understand this.Lew wrote: since we lynched mafia, I decided not to shoot, according to what discussed in post 1133 and 1135.
1133 was my post and I didn’t say anything of the sort. The first part of my post relevant to setup discussion just basically said that 5:3 is more likely than 6:2, and the second explained why NL was a bad idea yesterday. Neither of which justifies you not killing.
1135 was yours, and you said:
The first paragraph doesn't seem relevant to this. And in the second, you actually say "Wouldn't it be better to say that I will nk if and only if we lynch scum?". Though, in the following sentence you said "Cuz if we mislynch, I may be the only chance for us to have a tomorrow...", so I assume you meant "if and only if weLew wrote:
I agree. The whole analysis is very much correct. Anyway, I am not suggesting nl. I only think that the reactions of some players to this problem may be extremely interesting. For instance, if I were town and I were at L-1 on mylo, I would be posting a lot more content and a lot more protests and complaints than prana is doing... wouldn't you?
Moreover: if the absolute majority of town (4) asks me to nokill, I will not shoot. You guys decide.
Just an observation, tho. Assume we are on mylo: if we mislynch and I nk, tomorrow it is 6 with 3 scum, which means gameover.
Wouldn't it be better to say that I will nk if and only if we lynch scum? Cuz if we mislynch, I may be the only chance for us to have a tomorrow...
don't
lynch scum" (which would be consistent with what you are now saying).That still doesn’t make any sense, though:
Yesterday, it was most likely 5:3, improved to 5:2 by PD's lynch. If you factor in scum's NK, that makes 4:2 (MYLO), which is what we are probably in now. That means you had three options last night:
- Kill (and hit scum): making it 4:1 now
- Kill (and hit town): making it 3:2 (LYLO) now
- No kill: making it 4:2 (MYLO) now
In the MYLO created by not killing (ie. now), we have two only two avenues:
A) No lynch; or
B) Lynch scum
(ie. we can't mislynch)
Now, the theoretical rationale for A) (the default option to take in MYLO), is that a lynch the following day with access to the information that comes from the additional flip (caused by scum's NK on the night after No Lynching) is better than a lynch without that flip. However, a vig kill the night before the NL, which actually has a prospect of hitting scum (unlike a scum NK the night after) is obviously of much greater value than the scum kill (both because it can actually hit scum and, to a lesser extent, because any information-hunting is town-driven rather than an incidental consequence of a scum-kill).
And, in respect of B), needing to lynch scum is absolutely no different to the situation we'd be stuck in LYLO - except that an additional flip would have given us more information
In short, I can't see any motivation for not NKing last night. There is a scum motivation for your decision, though:
If lew is scum, his scumteam has two kills at his disposal. Now, last night it was 5;2. If scum used both NKs on town, they could have brought that down to 3:2 (LYLO). However, that would obviously mean that, come today, Lew would have been exposed to possible suspicion for the death of another townie. In short, there would have been a risk for scum in making two kills. At the same time, there was a very strong scum motivation for scum to only use one kill: it would put us into what is actually a LYLO situation right now (4:2 with two scum kills) and also would also carry the prospect that, if today we didn’t factor in this risk (eg by operating on the assumption that lew is town), we might actually No Lynch today (thinking it was MYLO when it is actually LYLO) and, thus, lose.
