Succession Mafia (OVER!)

[Porochaz]

1. There are two recruiting factions with one recruiter each. This is splained in the modposting.

WRONG! Multiple recruiters is what it says. There could only be one cult, you have just arbitrarily decided otherwise.

May I direct your attention to Post #1800? Or perhaps Yos2's claim? Or any of the other THOUSANDS of posts made with the supposition that there are UNDENIABLY two cults?

Or have you not been reading the topic at all? OH YEAH THATS IT.

Post 1800 is yours, it is speculation!!!

but even worse, you are taking yos2's word for fact! He was found out fair and square by Andi! Do you think he'd be going "Im cult and Im so VERY VERY honest!" right now if he wasn't caught? The fact that people are taking it for fact does not make it so!

snip

That's why I said it was speculation, Dunce Cap.

I was reiterated that it was speculation, something which seems to be a hard concept to get through to you.

When was this stated?

Again, not reading the thread.

I honestly dont remember because Im sure I would have said something.

So you're saying that as a townie, it's better to try to remember everything and hope everyone else remembers everything, than to try to post it in one centralized location so that we can make better choices as a whole? LOL

I realize by this point you're probably not scum, but you are either an idiot or a terrible player. *begins to ignore Porochaz*

I have this thing, it was invented a few thousand years ago, before computers, so it might be a bit old fashioned... its called paper. I have a pad of it. I have all the information collated that I need on that, now with the exception of Shanba who lives a couple of miles away from me, its extremely unlikely anyone is going to get there hands on it and effect.

Oh and if we were making "better choices" ooba wouldn't be in the firing line!!!

Your last line is amusing, and its probably why I haven't heard some of the things you are taking for fact that is just you posting randomly, I ignored you the best I could for the majority of this game as I had you down as both pretty early on.

As for the role info. Whether your a cop or not is neither here nor there, in fact I believe you are a cop or believe me I'd be voting for you but it's the same principle as ooba. You have had a cop with a much more solid grounding get an innocent on you, now Im sure you have been recruited since then and your results mean absolutely nothing and even if they didn't getting a null result rather than a scum result on ooba is just that, a null tell. Now it could be it was a night they changed and the bodyguard you think you saw could be a cult member, it could be your lying through your teeth or even I could be wrong and you could still be a town cop. Either way though, Im not lynching ooba, because his claim still pretty stands.

Well, there are at least three claimed enforcers, at least three claimed loose cannons. 2+2=? Oh wait, I forgot you were an idiot.

Lulz at the purely random set up speculation. I'm glad you have proper evidence to back this up.

Or hey! Lets all mass claim, you know why? Because according to RC we have 3 of each role, and I'm sure Flay would make it that easy to break his game years in the making.

As for Robo/Andi, yeah in fact I believe Robo is cult now and Ive taken your scenario into account but as Robo only claimed yesterday, it makes it quite unlikely. The fact that Andi has given us a guilty is also testiment. So unlike you and your no results and repeat results, I am going to maintain my line of thinking. Also what does the cult doc do when he gets recruited?

I haven't stopped thinking about every possibility I have just disregarded all the unlikely ones, something you seem to be incapable of doing. We have a list which includes BBM, Erg0, myself, gandalf etc. etc. who are on the list of potential recruiters, ooba doesn't feature on that list, neither does Andi or Robo. Hence theories about them should be dropped!

I am enjoying your liberal use of the word idiot though, it makes me smile whenever you use the word. Partly because I think your posts are causing my brain to slowly ooze out of my ear, the fact that out of respect for Flay's rules, I am trying my upmost hardest to keep civil and the fact that I haven't read a town motivated thing from you all game.

I'm not sure what good it will do but...

Why did you claim when you did?
Did you not feel at the time your credibility might be low having similar results to Andi?
Do you not see the logic or the opposing view in keeping ooba alive?

What do I think of the no result?

I think it's exactly that. I think whether its the wording in your role pm or the night they turned and so they were like schrodingers cat at that point or something else. Im treating ooba's no result as just that. Faraday got a no result as well, didn't he? and he flipped? I am treating a no result as that. It doesn't give him a free pass but with a claim of loose cannon

(which by the way adding it up zwet+singer+ooba = 3)

etc. Im going to say he isn't a recruiter. Alignment, I don't care atm.

5. Flameaxe
----- We know nothing about Flameaxe except that he was blocked by Chronopie on Night 3. This is confirmed.

By two people who could be scum together.

I JUST investigated Chrono last night and he's town. He claimed blocking Flameaxe, and Flameaxe confirmed the flavor. So who are you saying is scum together?

Now who isn't considering any possibility. Why would you investigate someone who is clearly not the recruiter? It makes no sense. Flameaxe here has nothing to do with it. You both could be scum together. As Ive stated I believe you to be scum, and I have no reason to believe whether Chrono is scum/town. Besides you were writing an analysis post for Darox. You need to make sure your facts are straight.

Lulz at the bit against me.

In regards to what you said about you, I think you are a cop. I don't think initially you were misleading the town. I think you were just useless-scum. Now I believe you are trying to mislead the town. Why else go for ooba?

Also confirming what Andi has said gives you credence and makes for easy results for you. Don't make your repetitious nature and the pure randomness of your claim try to work for you. It doesn't.

You seriously buying into the andi/robo cult team? Why would robo claim yesterday then? Again no sense.

And actually I do believe that there is a strong possibility of 2 cults, but there is a possibility of 1 and even if there is 2, where yos is in relation and the size of the teams is still totally up in the air.

As for your theory, I get it, but she has proved at the least she is not recruiter. Also with people without any proof whatsoever out there, they should be the focus of our attention and we should go up random garden paths with you on theories that are about as likely as aliens landing in my garden tomorrow.

Yos - well he could be part of a larger cult and by lynching someone else, he wins. Trying to confuse town and cause I dunno "this"

Now after having to read and reply to a post civilly, I'm away to punch a swan. Or something.

[singersigner]

TL:DR, right now.

So...didn't I already explain why I used it that way? I made a mistake not using my vig ability N2, but because I still had it, I wanted whoever the scum was to know on D3 that it was useless to recruit me for my ability. I'm just a plain VT now, guys. Tell me, after telling you EXACTLY what I was going to do, how much doubt do you guys really have that the "????" was me?

Also, last I checked, I'm very much in favor of an Ooba lynch, sooooo...

[Lord Gurgi]

Or you could have made a kill and proven your role.

Or you could just be a double voter.

[ooba]

RC, I honestly think you're letting paranoia cloud your judgement. You're working on selection bias mode.You ignore any counter points which are right and make sense...

For example, you think the scum team is me/andrius/ss/robo .. I addressed the me/andrius part in a later post ..

- If you think I am CR
-- Andrius was not recruited by Night one since he claimed the result on me
-- Robo protected Andrius Night two - therefore no recruitment of Andrius
-- Robo claimed only Day three
-- Therefore the only way I could have hypothetically recruited Andrius is to have roleblocked Robo with one of my minions on Night three and then recruited Andrius
But since we know roleblockers send flavor PMs - that point is ruled out.

The only possibility where it works is
- N0, I recruit ss
- N1, cults have a kill in lieu of recruitment and I used it on zwet
- N2, I recruit robo
- N3, I recruit andrius

This also involves some crazy choices like
- Saving ss's kill so that I can confirm myself knowing there's another cult out there
- Using a kill instead of recruitment on N1

[ooba]

Also, last I checked, I'm very much in favor of an Ooba lynch, sooooo...

Answer my question - "What is the other clause w.r.t the double vote in the PM"

[ooba]

Calling the two scum teams Red and Blue:
Yosarian2 -> Red Recruit
inHimshallibe Katsuki -> Red Leader (My read - feel free to disagree)

Which leaves possibilities for Blue Leader at:
xvart
Erg0
animorpherv1 Flameaxe
gandalf5166
Porochaz

From the above list, I consider xvart and poro's play to not fit CR profile.
The other three seem to be good fits. For example, gandalf and ergo seem to be in the background waiting for RC push on me to play out. Also like how a ergo wagon was derailed for mine.

Reminds me to check on chrono's
claim. But lynching me over ergo or gandalf is a mistake.

[singersigner]

Also, last I checked, I'm very much in favor of an Ooba lynch, sooooo...

Answer my question - "What is the other clause w.r.t the double vote in the PM"

Sorry, forgot to respond the first time.

And...are you talking about the fact that I need to have already been "drawn on" someone, first? Or...I mean, there are a couple things you might be getting at, but I can't just copy paste my pm...

What's "w.r.t."?

[ooba]

Also, last I checked, I'm very much in favor of an Ooba lynch, sooooo...

Answer my question - "What is the other clause w.r.t the double vote in the PM"

Sorry, forgot to respond the first time.

And...are you talking about the fact that I need to have already been "drawn on" someone, first? Or...I mean, there are a couple things you might be getting at, but I can't just copy paste my pm...

What's "w.r.t."?

With respect to ..

I was specifically looking for the double vote not being retractable but the drawn on bit also works as confirmation ..

[singersigner]

Hmmm...

[Darox]

Right, into what is hopefully more important discussion.

Day 3:

- Andrius seems to think finding recruits is useful for the town.
- Reaper does the dumb thing and promotes the lynching of people he thinks are recruits.
- Cult doctors and role speculation, oh my.
- Yosarian is still pretending he's not cult.
- Wasting LC bullet as a double vote, ugh.
- Why does Andrius think getting a town result would be a waste? A town result means a not-recruiter result. It doesn't matter if they get recruited later, you still confirmed them as not being a recruiter.
- Yos is wrong about what the cop should be doing. Yes, we want to know who all the cultists are and what side they are on, but until the recruiters are dead that information is useless to us.
- ReaperCharlie fails at reading comprehension and fills the thread with walls of pointless text.
- I'm not happy about the way singer has been bouncing back and forth on Ooba.
- inHim seems content to lay low and not really do much. Not liking that.
- Oh hey I'm replacing inHim. Never mind.
- Why does Ooba think singer shooting themselves is a good idea?
- I would have been so much happier if Singer shot Ooba instead of all this double vote and suicide nonsense.
- If singer was already recruited then there really wasn't anything the town could do about it, but whatever.
- Gurgi is right about Andrius and his usefulness as a cop, and everyone disagreeing isn't thinking clearly.
- Friend dies and we get a lovely ???? instead of a name for the double vote (Flay, you are such a tease)
- The double vote play doesn't make any sense as any alignment except recruiter, but I'm making the grievous error of assuming people would play optimally rather than winging it and not thinking ahead.

Day 4:

- Oh hey people finally realize Yos is a recruit thanks to Andrius investigation. Why are they voting him?
- The Flameaxe-Chrono exchange is interesting.
- "I am

now

a recruit" Oh you card Yos.
- If we fuck up and lynch a townie today, we're still not totally screwed unless there is another kill floating around.
- Oh jesus RC claims cop and makes a bunch of dumb assumptions. Also WIFOM bullshit. I hate you.
- Also for some reason RC seems to think people would assume his actions are playing against his win conditions? Why? He also doesn't seem to understand Yosarian's motivations, or that telling the truth and trying to help us kill the opposite cult is not only within his win cons, it's pretty much optimal play for his team.
- Porochaz is disputing the possibility of two cults, which really doesn't sit right with me. Gandalf continues to disappoint in the mean time.
- Good god I despise Andrius' comments about lynching Yos or Gurgi.
- Porochaz's unified scumteam theory falls flat because a cultist (And no one else) died night 2.
- More alliance bullshit?
- Xvart states he didn't get a roleblock pm night 1, creates a false dilemma saying that he, Andrius, or RC are a recruiter. Uhhhh.
- Ok turns out the lack of PM was mod error.
- So apparently robo hasn't actually been reading anything.
- I'm not liking Erg0's re-entry into this day.
- This double no result on Ooba thing really bugs me.
- The entire Ooba thing is a bad way to go. I kinda wish he would die, in order to tie up some confusing loose ends, but I don't think he should be lynched.
- RC doing dumb things again.
- What do you make of Faraday (An unrecruited VT) giving no result N0 as according to RC? This seems to throw the biggest spanner into the "Ooba is recruiter because of no-result" theory.

I'll be making up a list of connections on who is/isn't a recruiter candidate in the near future, and I'll have a bunch of questions for Yosarian.

Another point of note:

There have been 3 kills this game. There have been 3 Loose Cannons claimed. One of these LC's has said they used their single shot as a double vote on Day 3.
That leaves 1 unaccounted kill.

That means either cults have some seperate killing ability, or there is a fourth LC. And if that person is town, WHY HAVE YOU NOT CLAIMED?

[Darox]

Oh, and because I didn't see it while reading up, Singer, what do you plan to do if you win?

[Darox]

And actually since I'm pretty sure he didn't give it either, RC, what are your plans if you win?

[gandalf5166]

Ugh. Poro/RC argument is totally TL;DR.

[singersigner]

Oh, and because I didn't see it while reading up, Singer, what do you plan to do if you win?

Haha. At first I was like...be happy? THEN I figured it out...

So, I remember being requested to not say anything before Ooba did. Did he say what he wanted to do yet?

In any case, it's been too long, and I don't care: I can go be a cop like I always wanted.

[xvart]

I get the distinct feeling nothing is being accomplished any more. I also get the feeling that Ooba is a recruiter for the team that Andrius and RC are not on. I doubt that their cult is just Recruiter + 2 cops, since I think that cult recruited Robo first, therefore they are part of the larger cult. We don't want to lynch someone the larger cult wants to lynch.

TL:DR; I won't lynch Ooba, because I can't honestly believe you're all still town.

Huh? You think ooba is a recruiter but you won't lynch him? Isn't lynching a recruiter profit for everyone? And I don't believe all this nonsense about larger and smaller cults. It's pretty sensationalized and extreme. Fear tactics at their best. Assuming that the cult can either recruit or kill in any given night, it's likely that the teams are not as big as is being suggested.

Assuming that ooba is who he says he is (for the sake of argument) we have two kills we can likely attribute to cults: dram and Me=Weird (both unclaimed). Like I said before, I doubt one cult would make both kills as that would put them too far behind in the recruiting process, provided the assumption that the other cult successfully recruited each night. When Me=Weird died, if one cult killed both dram and Me=Weird, they would be at 2 members to the other cults 4 members at the start of day 3.

So... if the kills are split up (barring any loose canon recruits), each team would have 3 members right now (with a 100% successful recruit rate). Now given all the possible attempts at claimed roles, robo protecting Andy, cross recruiting, I seriously doubt that either team has been successful at recruiting 100% of the time.

---

singersinger using her double vote was not a dumb move. It may have been dumb not to use it before, but if she was town we couldn't risk her being recruited and then using her kill on town. It marginally verified her role. And if she is already recruited then it wasted her cult night shot regardless.

---

Again, give one piece of evidence that suggests someone is a recruiter that is better than two claimed cops getting a no result on someone. By comparison, we have the flavor results on a town investigation (Lord Gurgi) and we have the flavor results on scum (Yos2). What other options are there? The no result is unexplained in every possible way. I can't think of any role related function (outside of ooba's role) that would give a no result on ooba, given that we know how the roleblockers work and what their results are.

xvart.

[Lord Gurgi]

I'm a bit frazzled xvart.

Cult 1:
Recruiter
Andrius
RC
Robo
???

Cult 2:
Ooba
Singer
Yos

I hope the cult just got scared.

[Lord Gurgi]

I'm a bit frazzled xvart.

Cult 1:
Recruiter
Andrius
RC
Robo
xvart

Cult 2:
Ooba
Singer
Yos
???

I hope the cult just got scared.

Updated with more thoughts

[xvart]

I'm a bit frazzled xvart.

Why are you frazzled?

I hope the cult just got scared.

Don't you mean cult

s

? Whoops!

Well shit; my cult team looks pretty BA at the moment. 100% successful recruit rate, plus two claimed cops and a cult recruiting doctor... versus a recruiter, a depleted claimed loose canon, an publicly known member, and some other random dude.

xvart.

[Lord Gurgi]

It's a Saturday night. Don't expect clarity.

[ReaperCharlie]

Well shit; my cult team looks pretty BA at the moment. 100% successful recruit rate, plus two claimed cops and a cult recruiting doctor... versus a recruiter, a depleted claimed loose canon, an publicly known member, and some other random dude.

xvart.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

+100

[ReaperCharlie]

@ Hobbes: I will be glad when this is all over so I can go be a PI like I always wanted.

@ Poro: I explained in my claiming post why I claimed when I did. Again, not reading the thread. Yes, I figured my credibility might be low, which I explained in the same post.

As for the logic of keeping ooba alive, it eludes me entirely.

I will vote ooba or Erg0 or gandalf, everyone else seems town/recruited to me.

Be back Monday.

[Darox]

Xvart, what do you think of this:
- What do you make of Faraday (An unrecruited VT) giving no result N0 as according to RC? This seems to throw the biggest spanner into the "Ooba is recruiter because of no-result" theory.

And the fact that zwet claimed to be targeting dramonic.

[xvart]

Xvart, what do you think of this:
- What do you make of Faraday (An unrecruited VT) giving no result N0 as according to RC? This seems to throw the biggest spanner into the "Ooba is recruiter because of no-result" theory.

And the fact that zwet claimed to be targeting dramonic.

I believe the flavor of Faraday being body guarded. I doubt zwet would lie about guarding dram N0 so all flavor and evidence suggests there is another bodyguard.

xvart.

[ooba]

Xvart, what do you think of this:
- What do you make of Faraday (An unrecruited VT) giving no result N0 as according to RC? This seems to throw the biggest spanner into the "Ooba is recruiter because of no-result" theory.

And the fact that zwet claimed to be targeting dramonic.

I believe the flavor of Faraday being body guarded. I doubt zwet would lie about guarding dram N0 so all flavor and evidence suggests there is another bodyguard.

xvart.

Zwet is a LC, not a bodyguard.
Don't buy your kill theory. Simpler explanation is zwet killed dram and one other unclaimed LC killed Me=weird..

[xvart]

Sorry, mixed up names. Let me get this straight: You think town zwet killed town dram (claimed bodyguard)? Or was town zwet targetting claimed cop Andy? Why would town zwet do that?

xvart.