Mini 1056 - NFL Mafia (Game Over)

jimfinn · Post Post #475 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 12:23 pm

If I am the QB, I cannot clear inHim.

Mariyta · Post Post #476 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 12:26 pm

LL is the only one who would do so, then. If LL doesn't step forward in the next 48 hours, I'll vote inHim.

inHimshallibe · Post Post #477 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 12:56 pm

raj had some reasoning pretty early on in this Day. Know who didn't? jimfinn and Kdub. You had to drag it out of them.

inHimshallibe · Post Post #478 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 12:57 pm

jimfinn wrote:If I am the QB, I cannot clear inHim.

I can guarantee you the five of you can say this.

jimfinn · Post Post #479 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:07 pm

Why can you guarantee that? Because you are scum?

Mariyta · Post Post #480 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:10 pm

Raj, are you absolutely certain that inHim is scum? So certain that you're willing to risk the game?

jimfinn · Post Post #481 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:14 pm

Actually, on second thought, we should NL. UNVOTE: iHVOTE: NL.

Mariyta · Post Post #482 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:16 pm

Why the sudden change in attitude?

jimfinn · Post Post #483 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:19 pm

I am nearly positive inHim is scum, but I want to get back on odds. We lose nothing by waiting a day, and we're back to an odd number alive.

inHimshallibe · Post Post #484 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:20 pm

jimfinn wrote:Why can you guarantee that? Because you are scum?

Wow, this is becoming easy.

Mariyta · Post Post #485 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:21 pm

Where are Raj and LL?

inHimshallibe · Post Post #486 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:28 pm

raj, I never defended horror at all. An unvote does not a flipflop make.

inHimshallibe · Post Post #487 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:29 pm

unvote

No reason to shorten this Day.

jimfinn · Post Post #488 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:57 pm

Plus we have two nights with the QB rather than one if we NL.

Mariyta · Post Post #489 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 2:03 pm

Why two instead of one?

jimfinn · Post Post #490 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 2:45 pm

before the end of the game, i mean. NL D4, QB N4, Lynch scum D5, QB N5, Win D6 vs. Lynch Scum D4, QB N4, lynch to win on D5.

Kdub · Post Post #491 (ISO) » Thu Nov 04, 2010 9:35 pm

Mari:
jim's contributions haven't been stellar either, but with him, I get more of an under-the-radar feel, whereas with inHim, I get more of an active lurking feel. I should point out that I have played two previous games with inHim: Square-Enix Mafia I and III. In SE1, he was town and was far more involved in scumhunting and actively participating. In SE3, he was scum and was just following the leading wagons and was much less active. You can check out both games if you like. I've never played with jim before, so I don't know how typical his behavior in this game is.

So we're stuck it seems. 3 want no lynch, 3 want an inHim lynch. I'm still not convinced that no lynch actually gains us anything. Even though it potentially gives the QB another night to pass, it also gives scum an extra opportunity to get lucky and either hit the QB or someone that the QB can confirm. raj listed the possibilities earlier, can people actually crunch the numbers and see if the risk is worth it?

inHimshallibe · Post Post #492 (ISO) » Fri Nov 05, 2010 2:42 am

For the record, we're not actually stuck. 3 voting No Lynch will take us to Night.

I'll remind you of how my wagon has attacked me: vote first, give reasons later. If one of LL/Mariyta had voted me, they would have never contributed their reasoning, besides raj. Antihero was killed, Day broke with "HERPADERP Anti didn't like inHim" and I got to L-1 in three consecutive posts. And raj was the only one with a sniff of a reason.

Mariyta · Post Post #493 (ISO) » Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:30 am

That's one of the main reasons I think there are two scum on your wagon rather than three town.

Locke Lamora · Post Post #494 (ISO) » Fri Nov 05, 2010 11:51 pm

I went back to probably the best voting information we have, which is the rapid change from Mongoose to Shotty on D1.

First, the vote count when Mongoose is comfortably the leading wagon:

charter wrote:
VOTE COUNT

mongoose
- 5 (
Coach Travis, GhostWriter
, inHimshallibe,
Antihero
, Mariyta)
inHimshallibe - 1 (Kdub)

drmyshottyizsik
- 2 (rajrhcpfreak, jimfinn)

GhostWriter
- 1 (
horrordude0215
)
Kdub - 2 (Locke Lamora,
drmyshottyizsik
)

horrordude0215
- 1 (
mongoose
)

We can see that 3 of the 5 people on Mongoose have now flipped town. I would expect there to be at least one scum on this wagon, as Mongoose is a particularly easy target. Given that we can't have a situation where Mari is scum and inHim is not, either they are both scum, inHim is, or we have what I think is less likely: this wagon is all townies. If inHim is town, at least one of Raj or Jim is bussing Shotty at this stage. Shotty himself has just made a poor case on Kdub, which is where his vote stays. Kdub can still be town if inHim is, but only if both Raj and Jim are bussing Shotty, which seems unlikely, given his Linebacker status, and unnecessary.

Now, onto vote count 2:

charter wrote:
VOTE COUNT

mongoose
- 2 (
Coach Travis, GhostWriter
)
inHimshallibe - 1 (Kdub)

drmyshottyizsik
- 7 (rajrhcpfreak, jimfinn, Locke Lamora,
mongoose
, Mariyta, inHimshallibe,
Antihero
)

GhostWriter
- 1 (
horrordude0215
)
Kdub - 1 (
drmyshottyizsik
)

We see here that the two players who remained on Mongoose were both town. I switched my vote to Shotty, following which Mongoose, Mari and inHim all added their votes in quick succession and Anti hammered after Shotty mangled his claim. It's obvious here that Mari's vote is the real swing; Mongoose and myself both moved our votes from other wagons, so it's Mari's switch from the Mongoose wagon that really puts Shotty as the viable lynch when it would have been easy to keep the pressure up on Mongoose. I'm therefore far more confident that Mari is town than InHim, as her vote is the real lynch-changer. Jim reacts before inHim moves his vote, with the wagons at 5-4, and says he is keeping his vote on Shotty. Raj responds after his vote, asking inHim if it's 'too easy' to have identified a Shotty/Mongoose/Coach team so early.

Conclusions:

Mari is very likely town. If we take the view that at least one scum would have taken the opportunity to wagon Mongoose, inHim has to be scum. If inHim is town, Kdub is very likely scum with either Raj or Jim, as I don't believe both scum would have left their votes on their Linebacker like that. Right now I'm leaning towards inHim-scum, which I think fits in better with the voting patterns.

Mari: what do you think? Do you reckon that Mongoose wagon was all town? Do you think both Raj and Jim were bussing Shotty, or is Kdub scum?

Oh, and if I am the QB, I can not clear inHim.

Mariyta · Post Post #495 (ISO) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:55 am

Locke Lamora wrote: Conclusions:

Mari is very likely town. If we take the view that at least one scum would have taken the opportunity to wagon Mongoose, inHim has to be scum. If inHim is town, Kdub is very likely scum with either Raj or Jim, as I don't believe both scum would have left their votes on their Linebacker like that. Right now I'm leaning towards inHim-scum, which I think fits in better with the voting patterns.

Here's the problem with this: If inHim is scum, and you are town, his buddy has to be bussing, which I don't think is likely at this stage in the game. It would be stupid to try to take out your buddy when you'd be the only one left. So, either there are two scum on the inHim wagon (most likely kdub and jim, IMO), or you are his partner. I think a kdub lynch may be the way to go today. He wasn't on the shotty wagon, and he seemed awfully sure that mongoose was town the entire time, when no one else did.

An inHim/Locke scum pair makes sense when taking Razgriz's play into account. And a jim/kdub pair makes sense as well. Raj, I guess you're off the hook.

I need to think about this and do a re-read. I'll try to have it done by Monday, but no promises. We still have a week, so we're in no rush.

charter · Post Post #496 (ISO) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 10:03 am

VOTE COUNT

inHimshallibe - 1 (rajrhcpfreak)
No Lynch - 1 (jimfinn)

NOT VOTING

Mariyta
Locke Lamora
Kdub
inHimshallibe

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch! Deadline is November 14th.

rajrhcpfreak has been prodded.

rajrhcpfreak · Post Post #497 (ISO) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:31 pm

sorry...

Locke's Post #494: great analysis.

now clear mari, which i see why but i dont support. she could have easily taken the opportunity to jump on his lynch, i was pretty clear that i wasnt leaving the shotty lynch, so the numbers to lynch mongoose was low.
you draw a conclusion that inhim is scum since one of the players on the early mongoose lynch was scum. if that is true then the the only people that could be his partner would be you or mari.
i wasnt busing shotty, i truly though he was scum. i dont know about jimfinn.

so Kdub could be a possibility. but if he is scum then his partner has to be either me or jimfinn. so its jimfin.
so right now i see that the scum would be inhim/mari or inhim/locke. very rare chance that its jimfinn/kdub.

Mariyta · Post Post #498 (ISO) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:44 pm

rajrhcpfreak wrote: so Kdub could be a possibility. but if he is scum then his partner has to be either me or jimfinn. so its jimfin.
so right now i see that the scum would be inhim/mari or inhim/locke. very rare chance that its jimfinn/kdub.

As I asked, are you so convinced that inHim is scum that you are willing to risk the game? You know him better than any of us. If you say yes, I say we take out either inHim or kdub.

rajrhcpfreak · Post Post #499 (ISO) » Sat Nov 06, 2010 3:12 pm

we have to "risk the game" today or tomorrow.
i could vote no lynch, but with out a claim from inhim i will NEVER vote no lynch.
we have atleast 1 confirmed role, two including the QB. if you want to get more information you can no lynch but that information is limited, you have no doctor for protection and the QB is limited. so we are risking the information we have right now at a chance of getting no more information. proposing a no lynch is only in inhim's interests because he doesnt want to die which if he claimed it would have worked better.

so risking it today? why not, like i said in the previous post inhim is in 2/3 of the scum possibilities. one that i didnt say was kdub/inhim its rare but its another one in his direction.
i know its selfish, but i dont want to have a tomorrow where we still need two lynches and we have no QB. i also dont want a tomorrow where i am not a participant. so that means i want to lynch correctly today, that is why i prefer a mass claim today and get one of them right now. but right now all the possibilities point at one person.

lets look at just the vote counts. charter's ISO #20 on Wednesday October 06, 2010 10:28 PM.

VOTE COUNT

mongoose
- 4 (Mariyta, rajrhcpfreak,
Coach Travis
, inHimshallibe)

Coach Travis
- 2 (Kdub, jimfinn)
inHimshallibe - 1 (
mongoose
)

NOT VOTING

Antihero

Locke Lamora

horrordude0215

6 to lynch

we have neither jimfinn or kdub on the mongoose lynch. next VC kdub switches to inhim and mongoose switches to kdub. if they were scum they only needed 6 to get him. so i dont see why a scum-kdub would be with inhim by voting for him and keeping the mongoose lynch from proceeding.
the next day kdub was another holdout not wanting to lynch horror.

if its really a case of jimfinn busing shotty on day 1 and then tag-teaming with kdub early today to run up inhim. then i suggest that you (inhim) agree with me and call for the mass claim because right now i will not risk it by letting you live another day. inhim first (mass claim or not he needs to claim), QB second, and then the QB set the rest of the people, last the QB reveal his results.