Succession Mafia (OVER!)

[Flameaxe]

Xvart, what do you think of this:
- What do you make of Faraday (An unrecruited VT) giving no result N0 as according to RC? This seems to throw the biggest spanner into the "Ooba is recruiter because of no-result" theory.

And the fact that zwet claimed to be targeting dramonic.

I believe the flavor of Faraday being body guarded. I doubt zwet would lie about guarding dram N0 so all flavor and evidence suggests there is another bodyguard.

xvart.

Zwet is a LC, not a bodyguard.
Don't buy your kill theory. Simpler explanation is zwet killed dram and one other unclaimed LC killed Me=weird..

But wouldn't you expect said LC to claim said kill? I honestly don't find it probable that a used one-shot vig would care about keeping a kill a secret, would you?

[Darox]

You guys aren't calculating that I'm a vigilante, and that I'm planning on vindictively shooting dramonic tonight.

Dram came back only because of threats of his imminent lynch. Kill him NAO

These two mostly.

[Yosarian2]

Like I said before, I doubt one cult would make both kills as that would put them too far behind in the recruiting process, provided the assumption that the other cult successfully recruited each night. When Me=Weird died, if one cult killed both dram and Me=Weird, they would be at 2 members to the other cults 4 members at the start of day 3.

So... if the kills are split up (barring any loose canon recruits), each team would have 3 members right now (with a 100% successful recruit rate). Now given all the possible attempts at claimed roles, robo protecting Andy, cross recruiting, I seriously doubt that either team has been successful at recruiting 100% of the time.

The thing you are incorrectly assuming is that either cult would want to give up a recruitment in order to try to kill. I highly doubt that; we wouldn't, and it's highly unlikely the other side would either. It would be a pretty terrible play; there's no reason for it. Recruiting a townie is always better then killing one, and of course if you kill instead of recruit, you lose ground to the other cult as well; it'd just be bad play all around. And if a cult was going to give up a recruit in order to kill someone, then dram or me=weird? That dosn't make any sense either; a desperate cult might give up their recruit in order to kill a power role (we considered doing it in order to kill Andreus, since he was clearly going to investigate me), but there's no logical reason any cult recruiter would give up a kill to kill either one of them.

Dram was almost certainly killed by Zwet. Just read Zwet's posts during day 1 and that should be clear; anyone who knows Zwet knows he was going to kill someone night 1, he's not the type to decide to not kill given the choice, and Dram was clearly his #1 suspect.

I don't know what happened with me=weird, since he was in my group, but it's highly unlikely that the other side gave up their kill just to kill a semi-lurking recruit who hadn't claimed, that doesn't make any sense. Much more likely is that another one-shot vig killed him; possibly one that was recruited by the other side, or else possibly someone who was town when he or she sent the kill in.

Also, you're forgetting the recruiter. If the other cult started with 1 recruiter and has recruited 4 times, they would now have 5 members. If they failed to recruit once (say, if town got really lucky and they tried to recruit someone protected by a cult doc and failed), then they have 4 members. Either way, they'll probably be either as big or bigger then the town tomorrow, unless you guys lynch their recruiter today.

(shrug) Again, of course you shouldn't trust me, but you don't need to, I'm still just telling you guys stuff you should already know. This is all based on public information that all of you already have.

[ooba]

Flameaxe, I am guessing the other LC is recruited. If he claims, he would be able to corroborate the LC roles. He would also add credence to the theory that cult have no kills. Both would take some of the lynch mob off me. Therefore why claim and pass off a mis lynch ..

[Erg0]

I'm curious why Yos didn't answer my question about his recruiter's name.

(shrug) I don't see how it benefits my side at this point. There's no reason for me to just share random information here.

Well it'd prevent the other cult from co-opting your weakened position at a later date, for one thing.

@ooba: I've said twice that I don't think you're a recruiter, but frankly I'm not in the right frame of mind for a Poro/RC-style argument right now. I would describe my reasons as "quality over quantity", if anyone cares to review.

My favoured lynch is gandalf right now, will write a proper case up tomorrow to try and get us out of this rut.

[Lord Gurgi]

I'll look forward to that case. I hope Darox does similarly.

I can't remember where you stand, Prozac.

[Mr. Flay]

Fifth Situation Report of Day Four

[4]

ooba (ReaperCharlie, singersigner, gandalf5166, xvart)

[3]

Erg0 (Andrius, Chronopie, Flameaxe)

[2]

gandalf5166 (Erg0, ooba)

Holstered: Darox, Lord Gurgi, Porochaz, Robocopter87, Yosarian2

With fourteen alive, it will take eight drawn weapons to kill someone.

[ReaperCharlie]

Xvart, what do you think of this:
- What do you make of Faraday (An unrecruited VT) giving no result N0 as according to RC? This seems to throw the biggest spanner into the "Ooba is recruiter because of no-result" theory.

And the fact that zwet claimed to be targeting dramonic.

There's a difference between my Faraday and ooba results.

As you might know if you'd, oh... READ THE THREAD.

[Darox]

Ok, first a write up of obvious shit to help sort things out.
We are going on the assumption that power roles, cop investigated town, and cop investigated cultists all != recruiter, but that recruiters are smart enough to realize this.

People who fit this:
Andrius - Claimed Enforcer (Supported by RC, Yosarian)
Chronopie - Claimed Roleblocker (Supported by Yosarian2, Xvart, Flameaxe) , Investigated Town (RC#3)
Lord Gurgi - Investigated Town (RC#2+A#2)
ooba - Claimed Loose Cannon (Supported by singer, no counterclaim on zwet kill)
ReaperCharlie - Claimed Enforcer (Supported by Andrius), Investigated Town (A#0)
Robocopter87 - Claimed Consigliere (Supported by Yosarian)
singersigner - Claimed Loose Cannon (Supported by Ooba, dayvote use)
Yosarian2 - Investigated Cultist (A#3)

Things of note here:
- Chronopie has the strongest ties proving his role, with 3 separate people confirming his night actions and 1 cop investigation
- The only ties Ooba & singersigner have are each other and their claimed actions.

Yosarian

:
- Do cultists retain their powers upon recruiting?
- Do the cults have a way of killing separate from using a recruited Loose Cannon?

I know you have been asked both of these before and denied answering, but consider the following:
- Your team has a much better chance of winning if you help us kill the opposite recruiter as compared to trying to fight the opposite cult for recruits.
- Answering the above questions (Especially the second) will help prove/disprove Ooba & Singersigner as non recruits which will be invaluable in finding the enemy recruiter as well as preventing a possible mislynch today.

And another question:
- What do you think of defending someone who is an imminent lynch today by revealing them as a cultist buddy?


In other news, doing ISO's on the people not on the above list.

[gandalf5166]

Damn, I like the new guy. Doing all the hard work for me.
*sips cream soda*

[Chronopie]

prodded. I guess. Seeing as my V/LA ends

after

my exam today.

Warning, this post may look disjointed. I went and got some lunch in the middle.

The new guy is putting in some hard work. Makes a change from his slot's predecessors. It's good. And not just because there's no way in hell I can be the recruiter

I still note that no-one else claims to have received messages about being RB'd that aren't

my

targets...

So the other RB must have been hitting those that are either a) dead now, or b) don't care to mention it, even though there is no way to infer role merely from the fact that they've been RB'd. Whether that implies scum motivations or merely apathy, idk.

--

Cross referencing Darox's list with living players...

Mobsters still in the building:

1. Andrius
   - Claimed Enforcer (Supported by RC, Yosarian) - Protected by Robo since N1
   
2. Chronopie
   - Claimed Roleblocker (Supported by Yosarian2, Xvart, Flameaxe) , Investigated Town (RC#3)
   
3. inHimshallibe

   Katsuki
   Darox
   
4. Erg0
   
5. animorpherv1
   Flameaxe*
   
6. gandalf5166
   
7. Lord Gurgi
   - Investigated Town (RC#2+A#2)
   
8. ooba
   - Claimed Loose Cannon (Supported by singer, no counterclaim on zwet kill)
   
9. Porochaz
   
10. ReaperCharlie
    - Claimed Enforcer (Supported by Andrius), Investigated Town (A#0)
    
11. vezokpiraka
    Robocopter87
    - Claimed Consigliere (Supported by Yosarian)
    
12. TheLonging
    singersigner
    - Claimed Loose Cannon (Supported by Ooba, dayvote use)
    
13. xvart*
    
14. Yosarian2*
    - Investigated Cultist (A#3)

Well that's 8/14 players 'cleared'. Those in Black text still have a chance of being recruiter. Therefore only those with Black text should be being voted today.

We know that there is another RB (and it's not Flameaxe, Yos, or Xvart).

I support a massclaim either tomorrow, or today if we have time. Perhaps tomorrow is the better option, as we will have at least one more cop result.

--

Fifth Situation Report of Day Four

[4]

ooba

(ReaperCharlie, singersigner, gandalf5166, xvart)

[3]

Erg0 (Andrius, Chronopie, Flameaxe)

[2]

gandalf5166 (Erg0, ooba)

Holstered: Darox, Lord Gurgi, Porochaz, Robocopter87, Yosarian2

With fourteen alive, it will take eight drawn weapons to kill someone.

I think, seeing as we need to hit a

recruiter

today, Erg0 should claim, including postgame goal, and all those on the Ooba wagon should

seriously

consider shifting their votes.

[gandalf5166]

I'll switch as soon as Yos checks in and answers or refuses to answer Darox's questions. Depending on his answer.

[ReaperCharlie]

I'll switch as soon as Yos checks in and answers or refuses to answer Darox's questions. Depending on his answer.

^this

[Porochaz]

Time to put my money where my mouth is.

vote Erg0

subject to change to one of Flameaxe or xvart if I have more time to do more research. For now, lurky lurkerson gets my vote.

[xvart]

Zwet is a LC, not a bodyguard.
Don't buy your kill theory. Simpler explanation is zwet killed dram and one other unclaimed LC killed Me=weird..

But wouldn't you expect said LC to claim said kill? I honestly don't find it probable that a used one-shot vig would care about keeping a kill a secret, would you?

Unless he was recruited.

The thing you are incorrectly assuming is that either cult would want to give up a recruitment in order to try to kill. I highly doubt that; we wouldn't, and it's highly unlikely the other side would either. It would be a pretty terrible play; there's no reason for it. Recruiting a townie is always better then killing one, and of course if you kill instead of recruit, you lose ground to the other cult as well; it'd just be bad play all around. And if a cult was going to give up a recruit in order to kill someone, then dram or me=weird? That dosn't make any sense either; a desperate cult might give up their recruit in order to kill a power role (we considered doing it in order to kill Andreus, since he was clearly going to investigate me), but there's no logical reason any cult recruiter would give up a kill to kill either one of them.

Well I suppose it depends on the recruiter and how threatened he/she was by a cop and the directions he was looking as to whether it was more viable to keep recruiting or try and kill the the cop. It also depends on if the recruiter could pull off a fake claim gambit and "clear" himself by killing instead of recruiting. The quotes by zwet are interesting as I had forgotten he had said those, but that is peripheral in my opinion due to the no results on ooba being the primary damning evidence on him.

I still note that no-one else claims to have received messages about being RB'd that aren't

my

targets...

So the other RB must have been hitting those that are either a) dead now, or b) don't care to mention it, even though there is no way to infer role merely from the fact that they've been RB'd. Whether that implies scum motivations or merely apathy, idk.

Unless you are lying about your target last night and actually RBed me, I already claimed to have received a flavor pm last night.

xvart.

[Chronopie]

I still note that no-one else claims to have received messages about being RB'd that aren't

my

targets...

So the other RB must have been hitting those that are either a) dead now, or b) don't care to mention it, even though there is no way to infer role merely from the fact that they've been RB'd. Whether that implies scum motivations or merely apathy, idk.

Unless you are lying about your target last night and actually RBed me, I already claimed to have received a flavor pm last night.

xvart.

:/

Missed your claim of being RB'd last night, but I targeted Flameaxe, and that was confirmed by Flameaxe himself.

N0 Yos, N1 Xvart, N2 M=W (C-RB'd), N3 Flameaxe
N0 ???, N1 ???, N2 Chrono, N3 Xvart

Point stands that N0 and N1 are unaccounted for for the other RB'er

[singersigner]

Checking in...not really any new thoughts. I suppose I could be persuaded to switch to an Erg0 wagon...so what's the case on him again?

[Darox]

Checking in...not really any new thoughts. I suppose I could be persuaded to switch to an Erg0 wagon...so what's the case on him again?

1: He hasn't claimed a power role or been investigated.
2: He's lurking.

That's pretty much it.

[Yosarian2]

- Answering the above questions (Especially the second) will help prove/disprove Ooba & Singersigner as non recruits which will be invaluable in finding the enemy recruiter as well as preventing a possible mislynch today.

Sorry, I don't have any info that is likely to help in that regard.

Also, any of the information you asked might help find recruits, but I don't see how it'd help you find the recruiter.

And another question:
- What do you think of defending someone who is an imminent lynch today by revealing them as a cultist buddy?

(shrug) If someone is about to get lynched, and they choose to claim to be a cult buddy of mine, I would be in a position to confirm or deny that. I'd probably let them make the call about if they needed to claim.

[Lord Gurgi]

That's putting way too much power in the hands of a guy that may well be from the larger cult. I'm beginning to understand PJ.

[Porochaz]

Without saying the words "cause he said so" can everyone tell me why they believe yos to be part of the smaller cult?

[ooba]

I'm surprised no one has brought this up but the best strategy for a CR right now its to get confirmed as a recruit .. And hence unlynchable ..

Therefore you should write off yos as a recruiter only if you believe andrius isn't recruited ..

[ReaperCharlie]

- Answering the above questions (Especially the second) will help prove/disprove Ooba & Singersigner as non recruits which will be invaluable in finding the enemy recruiter as well as preventing a possible mislynch today.

Sorry, I don't have any info that is likely to help in that regard.

Did your cult start with 1 or 2 members at the beginning of the game? i.e. Recruiter only, or recruiter +1. Keep in mind that this means before the N0 recruiting opportunity.

can everyone tell me why they believe yos to be part of the smaller cult?

cause he said so.

[Flameaxe]

Without saying the words "cause he said so" can everyone tell me why they believe yos to be part of the smaller cult?

I don't have any reason to believe he is, therefore I don't believe he is in the smaller cult. The same logic leads me to believe he isn't part of the large cult. He's in a cult, but there is no way to know which he is in, so taking his word for it is fairly futile. Speculating as to which one he is in with the little information we have is probably futile too.

[Porochaz]

Which is entirely my point, Im glad you are being sensible.