Mini 1073: Autumn Mafia - Game Over!

[Llamarble]

I'd like Xine to go next; I think it's best for scummy players to have less information when they claim.

[AGar]

No prod on Netopalis due yet. Game hasn't even been open for 2 days. Votecount incoming.

[AGar]

There wasn't much commotion, but after some discussion about how to proceed, one man stepped forward with a bold proclamation. Everyone heard him out as he told his tale and then pointed his finger at the next person that was due to talk.

Votecount 3.2

ICEninja (0)

-

Llamarble (0)

-

Me=Weird (0)

-

Netopalis (0)

-

Equinox (0)

-

Xine (1)

- ICEninja

Not Voting (6)

- Llamarble, Me=Weird, Netopalis, Equinox, Xine

With

6

alive, it takes

4

to lynch.

Xine

is the current wagon leader at

L-3

Deadline is Saturday, November 13th, 2010 @ 11:59 PM EST

[Me=Weird]

So first off, I could go with a lynch even though it's MyLo, because llama is almost confirmed town unless someone CCs. Which means we have the same lynch options as if we NLd and someone got NK'd.
I, too, want to lynch Xine. She hasn't contributed much so far, voted llama for a "contradiction" that wasn't one, voted fernando saying "cuz he's scum" with her only previous suspicions of him weren't really suspicions, just saying that she might vote for him later because of deadline. Her wagon "analysis" was just voting AH, presumably because he was fourth and sixth on the wagons she mentioned? She voted AH instead of Oso because oso hammered, which I don't get as hammering is a null tell, then she didn't respond to one thing and instead attacked him. Right now, it's perfectly reasonable to ask someone to claim at L-3, because if it were L-2, then there's the risk of scum QHing, same with L-1. Also, PoE.
A second choice would be Netopalis, for tunneling on llama with a weak case.

[Netopalis]

Still here. My Legal Writing II brief was turned in today, so I'll be able to post tonight with my thoughts. Sorry about that.

[Xine]

I see nobody has CC Llama, which sucks, because he was my only scum read. My claim=Vanilla Townie. I want Netopalis to go next.

[ICEninja]

Llama was your only scum read? Does anybody have anything remotely decent other than Xine? Town seems moderately united here.

[AGar]

Noon came and went, and the town was fatigued. The emotional and mental roller-coaster of the past days had left them exhausted, and they were in quite rough shape because of it. No one was saying much other than a few bits here and there, keeping the discussion somewhat flowing.

Votecount 3.3

ICEninja (0)

-

Llamarble (0)

-

Me=Weird (0)

-

Netopalis (0)

-

Equinox (0)

-

Xine (1)

- ICEninja

Not Voting (6)

- Llamarble, Me=Weird, Netopalis, Equinox, Xine

With

6

alive, it takes

4

to lynch.

Xine

is the current wagon leader at

L-3

Deadline is Saturday, November 13th, 2010 @ 11:59 PM EST

[ICEninja]

This activity level is disgusting. I guess no one else is any more interested in this game than I am.

Does anyone have a problem with lynching Xine? We really can't let this day go down to the wire, because if we lynch wrong we lose. We can't fall back on Llamarble, because he's out of bullets. No lynching today isn't going to help because they're just going to kill Llamarble tonight, since he's the closest thing we have to a confirmed townie.

Xine, you haven't done anything at all to convince me you aren't scum.

[Equinox]

I was sitting here waiting for the molasses to move.

I suppose there's no point in keeping shut anymore, though. If Netopalis wants to counterclaim, he can counter; you guys aren't getting a counter from me. The reason I asked for a mass claim was the lack of a shot, which made me wonder if Xine was the vig who missed Night 2. I believe Llamarble's claim.

Does anybody have anything remotely decent other than Xine? Town seems moderately united here.

I thought about that this morning. There's no other answer. I have a strong town read on you and a town read on Me=Weird; therefore, it boils down to {Netopalis, Xine}. Xine's the stronger scum read of the two, and she hasn't convinced me otherwise with her claim or her posts today.

Actually... let's just get on with it.

VOTE: Xine L-2

[ICEninja]

Still here. My Legal Writing II brief was turned in today, so I'll be able to post tonight with my thoughts. Sorry about that.

I'm waiting eagerly for this. I need this post before I can continue with what I want to say.

I would prefer if no one else vote before this post comes.

[Xine]

I really have nothing to say that could be convincing, other then to repeat my claim. I would like to see the game not end today, so I would hope to not be lynched. while we are waiting, Ice, would you post that case on me, I'd like to see it so I can take a few lessons with me from this extreemly poorly played game.

[ICEninja]

I really have nothing to say that could be convincing, other then to repeat my claim.

So you have no scum suspects. Period. Tsk.

while we are waiting, Ice, would you post that case on me, I'd like to see it so I can take a few lessons with me from this extreemly poorly played game.

Its fairly low on my priority, but if I have some time before the day is over I'll do it.

[AGar]

The eerie silence continued to haunt the town. It was obvious that some of the citizens were deathly afraid of what was ahead of them, fearing for the worst. Slowly, progress seemed to be made, even if just for a brief moment.

Votecount 3.4

ICEninja (0)

-

Llamarble (0)

-

Me=Weird (0)

-

Netopalis (0)

-

Equinox (0)

-

Xine (2)

- ICEninja, Equinox

Not Voting (4)

- Llamarble, Me=Weird, Netopalis, Xine

With

6

alive, it takes

4

to lynch.

Xine

is the current wagon leader at

L-2

Deadline is Saturday, November 13th, 2010 @ 11:59 PM EST

There will be an activity check tomorrow, seeing as how I've posted more today than some players.

[Xine]

My re-read gave me one more suspect. Netopalis, but, I think I'll wait for all the claims to come in before I go flinging around votes
Icenija:
you are an intellectual tease, and also,

you are willing to cast a vote in mylo, but not willing to present a case on the person you are voting for.

really? perhaps I should look at you as a suspect too? hmm... I'll consider that.

[ICEninja]

you are an intellectual tease, and also, you are willing to cast a vote in mylo, but not willing to present a case on the person you are voting for. really? perhaps I should look at you as a suspect too? hmm... I'll consider that.

I feel like I've made it pretty clear that I've lost all interest in putting effort in to this game. I haven't made a post regarding anything beyond the most recent 15 posts or so since day 1, and I don't intend to bother going back and reading old stuff unless I have to.

I said I'd make a case if I needed to, but we have enough people suspecting you to get you to L-1, and there's probably someone willing to hammer. Thus, actually posting the case is low on my priority list. Considering the situation, and how you only asked me to make a case for your personal benefit, this little dirt thrown on me feels like a bit of OMGUS.

That being said I have tomorrow off and will probably have some spare time. If I get enough Starcraft 2 in I'll make the case.

[Me=Weird]

Not much new to say, except that despite asking ICEninja for a case, Xine hasn't responded to mine. Would vote, but I'm waiting for Neto's post, which he promised would be done a couple days ago.

[Netopalis]

Sorry about that. Weird things going on here that I'm not going to get into.

No counterclaim. Obviously, this means that I was wrong about Llamarble. I think we can safely clear him, since the alternative is that there's a mafiate with an extra kill, which is extremely unlikely.
That means (from my perspective) that one of the following has to be scum:


3. ICEninja
5. Me=Weird
10. Equinox
11. Xine

I personally feel that the two best candidates are Equinox and Xine. Scum often try to use one of two strategies when starting a game: either ignoring their teammates or attacking them so that, in neither case they can be accused of buddying. Oso doesn't even mention Equinox in any substantive message for any of his page 1 ISO posts. He's similarly light on Xine. To me, it looks suspiciously so. Both have also done things which are independently scummy. Equinox seems a bit wishy-washy coming into the game, then lays heavily into Oso, but only after other players have attacked him. Xine, on the other hand, seems content to provide neutral commentary instead of analysis for most of the early game. Most of her posts seem aimed at avoiding attacks based on lack of content than they seem designed to catch scum.

I think that Xine is the better play, but either would work.

[Llamarble]

On page 3 Xine says she finds my scumlist-request scummy, then half an hour later unvotes me and says she thinks I have been playing in a pro-town fashion. All that happens in between is a post from Ice saying he doesn't find my list scummy and has a town read on me so far, which doesn't conflict with either of Xine's accusations (that I asked others to put up scumlists and voted third on Oso with no explanation, so I'm not sure what her logic was.

@Xine: Please explain your thoughts at that point.

To add to Netopolis' latest, Equinox specifically wondered whether Xine was a night 2-missing vig.
I don't see why she would think the person she found scummiest more likely to be a town PR than anyone else.
@Equinox: Why her?

Net remains somewhat suspicious for me on the basis of his predecessor Net's actions. At one point Netlava told Xine to choose one of Fernando and somebody else to vote for when she said she could vote for either. There was no mention of waffling being scummy, so if we're right about Xine then that might have been a bit of coaching. I'll be more specific and find/link that post later.

[Equinox]

I ended up channeling von Karma reading post 392.

Oso doesn't even mention Equinox in any substantive message for any of his page 1 ISO posts. He's similarly light on Xine.

If my memory serves me correctly, Oso ignored more people than that. I don't particularly care to check.

Equinox seems a bit wishy-washy coming into the game, then lays heavily into Oso, but only after other players have attacked him.

Eh? I was wishy-washy? Maybe you're thinking of the wrong game, sir.

I do, however, agree that I laid it thick on Oso after everyone else; that was happenstance. At the time, I put much higher priority on

doing the vig's job of damage control

lynching PerArdua first, until I realized that I'd screwed up my calculations and it didn't really matter. By then, Oso made himself plain as day.

To add to Netopolis' latest, Equinox specifically wondered whether Xine was a night 2-missing vig.
I don't see why she would think the person she found scummiest more likely to be a town PR than anyone else.

In the past, I've lynched scummy people who flipped PR. That experience has made me do double-takes on things.

I thought it was Xine because she was not online at all after November 1, and my fear was that real life had kept her away from the game and she might have missed submitting an action. That's why I asked AGar to confirm whether or not he alerted people prior to deadline.

[AGar]

Discussion seemed to pick up, even if only slightly, and things began moving again. The town seemed to have a slightly renewed vigor, moving forward with their trials as the evening grew closer.

Votecount 3.5

ICEninja (0)

-

Llamarble (0)

-

Me=Weird (0)

-

Netopalis (0)

-

Equinox (0)

-

Xine (2)

- ICEninja, Equinox

Not Voting (4)

- Llamarble, Me=Weird, Netopalis, Xine

With

6

alive, it takes

4

to lynch.

Xine

is the current wagon leader at

L-2

Deadline is Saturday, November 13th, 2010 @ 11:59 PM EST

Cool stuff guys. I will be at the movies Saturday with my girlfriend, who I only get to see on average 2 days out of the month, so if a lynch happens after ~5 PM EDT, just keep the chatter quiet, I'll be back in due time.

[Me=Weird]

This game needs a big activity boost. Neto's post didn't really dissuade me. Not really seeing Equinox, IIRC, she didn't seem wishy-washy, and got onto Oso about as much as she did with other people. Anyway, I see no reason not to

Vote: Xine

[Llamarble]

Well now I guess we see if somebody quickhammers and makes us lose, or if we're right and in pretty reasonable shape to win.
I'll hammer Friday sometime if it doesn't seem like much discussion is left, Saturday if it looks like people are still talking.
I don't have a problem with someone hammering before I get a chance to since this is my "when I die, look at..." post.

Since I'm probably dead tonight, here are my thoughts:

I recommend a no-lynch tomorrow since it gives us 1/3 chance of hitting instead of 1/4 with our final lynch.

my first suspect should we be right is Netopalis.
In addition to his "then pick one" post toward Xine, Netlava also used the following reasoning against Fernando.

"Oh, one important part I left out: Fernando says that Zinive was wagoning when Zinive hadn't even voted at that point. If I were scumhunting and I find someone suspicious for reason X, I would, you know, have to see reason X to find that person suspicious."

I feel like this is the kind of mistake scum love to catch townies at. Saying Zinive voted when he merely had expressed suspicion is an equally easy mistake for either side to make, but Netlava bolds it as a particularly big reason for his vote.

Netlava's early RV on Oso and Oso's response saying he specifically doesn't find him (or me) scummy for the votes in retrospect looks like it may have been an early play hoping to make both of them look town.

Netopalis attacked me, and since a scum is slightly less likely to attack their buddies (as opposed to a townie) heavily before it's necessary, that means it's slightly more likely he's scum (I've never thought OMGUS was particularly bad for this reason). The fact that I'm confirmed town now means this logic works for everyone else too, and it can be applied to his attitude toward the Oso wagon (would support in deadline situation but wanted more discussion) as well. He's also late onto the let's lynch Xine train (not that he posted much before it gained steam).

Second suspect would be M=W. He almost completely ignored Xine and Oso D1 and early D2. I think it's actually a little odd that Netopalis picked out Equinox over him for this accusation. He's not too late on today's Xine wagon, but several players had already made it clear where their suspicions were and I could see him catching on that it was pretty inevitable. Obviously, Xine's scumbuddy (if she's scum) is bussing her, and I think it looks like one of Net or M=W is responsible.

When M=W joined Oso's wagon yesterday, he made reference to a number of posts that happened before a previous post of his. That previous post said merely that he was "starting to agree" with the wagon on Oso, a very neutral statement that could easily be intended to lead into bussing later while also giving Oso a chance to defend himself and not make bussing necessary. It focused more on discussions of other players and could be seen as hoping to lead the town away from Oso. 50 posts later, after Oso was pretty clearly the day's lynch, M=W brings up a few additional points, many of them available before his "I'm starting to agree" post but not mentioned in it, and makes vote L-1. Thus I wouldn't be surprised if M=W were bussing there and brought up things he noticed before but was hoping no one would mention.

He also didn't quickly see the possibility of a mafia roleblocker when discussing Zinive, which would make sense if he were scum and knew whether they lacked one, but obviously that could simply be having the insight later as well.

Equinox and Ice are suspicious for not being dead when they looked the most town coming into today, but I suppose the scum may have been vig-hunting. Net's case against Equinox is at least interesting, and it still seems a bit strange that she would expect a counterclaim to come from Xine specifically, but she's been pretty reasonable in general. Ice too isn't clear given his apathetic attitude. I think these two are town, but I think it's worth the no lynch tomorrow anyway since that will make things a bit clearer.


I feel funny writing "bussing" so much. It used to refer to kissing.
I guess the kissing is done more fiercely now and with tires.

[Xine]

good effort Llamarble, but most of that post was based on the assumption that I am scum, and about to be lynched. the former is not true, so, assuming the latter happens, there won't be another day to worry about it.

[Llamarble]

Well, let's find out. I meant to wait, but I said what I wanted to and I'm probably tonight's death, so everyone else can talk later. Also I'm curious.

VOTE: Xine