Ok, so, one of my top reads to start was Kat/Antihero, but it looks like that isn't valid anymore. I'm inclined to believe the claim at the moment, unless there is someone to come forward and give counter evidence.
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One of the people in this game that I'm unsure about is Mongoose. Decided not to post quote, though i can get them if you need me to, but he seems to follow a lot of people's votes. originally i found it scummy, but right now I'm thinking it was just genuine not being able to post earlier. Keeping my eye on him, but as of now, town read.
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Mafuyu wrote:Sleepless Assassin wrote:
It's not "might or might not". It's about determining whether or not we think they did. Currently, I think it makes sense and his response has reinforced my thoughts.
It might be player bias that Mafuyu thinks otherwise. This is exactly why Mafuyu would up revealing Mason status in the last C9++, because of meta-based 'might have's. It just seems like it would lead to probabilistic uncertainties at best.
Yes, player A knowing player B might thus kill them for X reason. They might also kill players C-D for Y reason. X reason has a slightly better result for A-scum's play. However, C-D might also have killed B for Z reason or Y reason, which means that at the very best you wind up with a slightly weighted bias towards B. The fact that you are pushing it to the degree you do is obvious (you want to gauge reactions to see if X>>Y in methodology, thus if A is scum then A MUST have killed B), but it still neglects C-D players.
Sum: Yes, you might be right that he has good reason as scum to play as he has. Unless you account for the rest of the playerbase, however, this is leverage at best and player-biased tunnelling at worst. And to be honest, your entry reasoning for his play is horrible and easily negated by the simple observation that players will tend to tweak their play the more games they play. You're not going to make a disputable comment about his previous games and expect it to fly now, that's just poor form.
Bonus: Also keep in mind that you're making a scum/sk setup play right now. Also keep in mind that it has actually worked in the past.
Now then, for Mothrax. More votes on him are in order, if only to make him squirm and see what oozes out. Mass-claim is silly for easily-noted reasons, so the simplest rationales for his play are:
1. Stupid throwaway scum.
2. Lack of effort in interpreting setup base results (how doing X publicly would affect the game)
3. Attempting to gauge reactions.
Bear in mind that of the two towny reactions, neither are actually weighted towards being town reactions. Gauging is something both sides are capable of doing (and something an SK must eventually do) and a lack of effort can be attributed to anyone that's just playing the game casually or with more important things on their mind.
So, if he's going to convince anyone that he is town, Mafuyu thinks he'd better hit the ground running or lose credibililty.
a lot of Mafuyu posts tend to be about concepts and talking about how the game "should" be played, rather than scumhunting.
havingfitz wrote:That leaves Antihero. He has come in to replace Katsuki (who had a fair amount of suspicion on D1) and Looker (who really didn’t do anything). The only thing that has me concerned about Antihero is the fact he is the 3rd player in that role. I tend to think that scum are less likely to get replaced because IMO scum is a more interesting role than town and people get the opportunity to be scum much less frequently than they do town...if you need proof see my sig
A quick look at the last 10 completed mini-normal games (a small sample I know) shows only 3 of those games had scum get replaced (and one of those ended up replacing back in). Only once in 26 scum roles did a scum role get replaced twice (as Antihero’s position has been). Based on that alone (because I do think the position has been a bit suspect) I want to hold off on my Antihero suspicions and not put a vote on him. One thing confusing about this train of thought is...if Antihero is town...and he seems to be getting a bit of suspicion his way...I would think the remaining two scum would support a prospective Antihero mislynch and the only two people on the Antihero wagon at the moment are mongoose and Blakadder. Both of whom were on the andrew94 lynch.
As much as I do not want to put a vote on someone who is not around....a2rudeboy gets the nod as the person I suspect most. And that’s where I tend to put my vote.
Tl:dr:
My top two suspects are Antihero and a2rudeboy but I’m reluctant to vote either of them as a2rudeboy is awol and Antihero is a 2nd derivative player which is very uncommon amongst scum. But I want to have a vote in play so....
VOTE: a2rudeboy
so, I'm getting a better vibe from fitz than i did from Mafuyu, but I'm still throwing the slot up there. Mafuyu began the game with the vote on Sleepless Assassin, and kept it there for most of Day 1. This isn't scummy, but I found that after reading, I didn't really know what her other reads were. A lot of talk from her was about theory and numbers, rather than, as i said before, who she thought was scum. When SA claimed blocker, she didn't remove her vote (being retroactively scummy, because scum would want to keep votes on a pr). Day 2 did a bit to remedy the lack of reads, but eventually mafuyu flaked.
as for fitz, i'm actually liking his play. his opening vote on andrew gives him town cred, since andrew turned out to be scum. The only thing I did not like from his was the talk of meta as a reason for thinking someone is/is not scum. It seems scummy to see the slot as more townish for that reason.
TO be honest, I barely have a scum read on this slot at the moment, but I really don't feel like getting rid of what I've already worked on. Slightly scummy, but not near the top for me.
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a2rudeboy wrote:/prod pickup
Nothing much to go on still.
@Nexus- Who is currently your top candidate and why?
@Mongoose- Do you have any idea how often you should be able to post? With a v/la that long, would it maybe be better to seek replacement?
This quote is from 5 pages in. There are at least 3 accusations/cases on who could be scum. what?
a2rudeboy has given the town very little to work with in way of reads on people, and has mostly commented on how a couple cases were not valid, but does nothing to scum hunt himself. He is hesitant to vote for andrew, and this reason does seem valid, but given that andrew flipped scum, its suspicious. (also, i've played games with andrew, once as mason buddies. He claimed in his first or second post of the game. no way i would have believed him this game). His other "suspects" have consisted of attacking Nexus for lurking and Alduskul (my slot) for cases he didn't agree with. Interestingly, he never placed a vote for my slot, so IMO this is him testing the waters to see if maybe someone will start up a wagon. Finally, the vote on Antihero, the popular wagon is scummy, along with the subsequent unvote after with nothing to say.
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Nexus is lurking all of Day three. and getting a free pass. a2rudeboy's comments have not all been bad, seeing as he continues to attack Nexus for lurking (however cheap that may be). I'll refrain from posting a case on Nexus because 1) it's 1:30 in the morning and 2) i'd rather see the case that a2rudeboy has first, as most of the town would agree (i believe) It should be noted though that Nexus does seem a bit scummy to me.
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in conclusion... i had a better handle on this game before antihero claimed. kat/looker/anti was a scum read for me, but since the claim (which i'm inclined to believe) I have less reads. a2rudeboy is right now my top scum. As for number two, it might be Nexus, but with a big conditional on that. Nexus jumped on the andrew wagon, which may be seen as bussing, but also jumped on a2rudeboy early in the day. I don't think the two are scum together, but I think one of them is.
I'll look over the game again tomorrow, specifically at andrew's play, along with the other dead town members. something i did note was that andrew pushed strongly for a morthax wagon, when there was really no need to bus, so it seems to me that morthax is slightly town.
