Mini 1049 - Hide and Seek Mafia - FINAL Kablooie!

[Iecerint]

I'd been very open that I supported that Katsu wagon. I didn't vote him because we were still considering other possibilities (NP, his camn case, etc). I would have voted him at deadline. I do that a lot. I like days to go on forever. That's part of why I objected to camn's Saturday plan and why I haven't voted camn. SX knows this, btw, because we always bitch about it when we play together.

I didn't change my vote from Pome (placed to make her post early that day) because I hadn't decided who to change my vote to. I didn't anticipate that SpyreX would hammer her without claims or anything.

Regarding camn -- first, camn went from town to idkmebescum after reviewing the Katsu material again. Saporo is the one who got me thinking about it; I have a lot of respect for her reads. I'd thought Katsu was scum, so I hadn't thought about camn's behavior in a negative light before that. I mention this as soon as saporo brought it up, so your claim that there was a quick shift to camnscum is an error.

(EDIT:

I remember thinking she was town when I read, but I was also feeling really strongly that Katsuki was scum, so I should probably reread tbh.

So it looks like it's possible to read this without making the connection, but that's what I meant here.)

Also, it is not a secret at all (like, it's literally impossible to miss this) that I thought camn and NP were the best players to lynch because of the vezok wagon. This is an extremely huge point. I even include this discussion IN THE PART SX JUST QUOTED. I also explicitly mention why I would be OK with lynching you, again in that bit you just quoted:

I am most inclined to lynch camn at this time, on the grounds that someone was likely bussing vezok (it's VEZOK), and I know it wasn't my slot; and that I am leaning town on NP [the other unflipped vezok wagon member] at this time. Since yesterday, I have not gotten the sense that she is interested in finding scum, but rather in lynching players who are not her; her attitude toward MBF's vote for her today is typical.

Outside of that dichotomy, SX's slot looks the worst for being on town lynches and only on town lynches. He also vocally pushed to lynch the two most recent town lynches.

This extremely clearly establishes that my top three suspects are camn, NP, and SX.

Meta-point on Iec -- I'm much more tentative as town than scum IMO. For example, I'm much more likely to enter the day with an agenda as scum. As town I go around and entertain different possibilities. I suspect that SX knows this, though I'm not sure we've had a direct confrontation about it before (may have happened in Of Gods and Men D1).

I'm not going to dispute that MPR's quickhammer was awful, though. I hate people that do that kind of thing.

[saporovirus]

I have speculated for awhile now that Icerint was camn's scummate, so I can happily oblige an Icerint lynch if that's where we're headed.

Where is this coming from?

I for one believe Iec when he says he doesn't want to end days too early, especially the way this game has been going. Furthermore, I would caution against putting too much faith in speculations about how the MPR quickhammer was a "shut-up" hammer. It's an interesting hypothesis but obviously impossible to prove. In short, I think Iec's thoughtful/ cautious town.

[SpyreX]

Of everything I brought up that is the least important. To such a degree I'm paranoid it wasn't an accident.

BUT, what happened to the about me having nothing? About me just wanting others to do my work for me? Where is it?

Instead I get "ohh yea I totally would have voted there" and "ohh it was a total accident and SpyreX is the bad dude for it" and even lol, meta meta meta.

You parked a vote on a town read versus anything else.

----

@MBF:

I see a lot of what you're sayin about camn. However, on one side I could see Camn-Ice BUT the "ohh this is interesting" versus either power bussing OR super defense makes me think this is town-on-town love and he's just feedin the fires.

---

On the flipside, I'm workin on a night hypothesis assuming a scum lynch today. I'm hoping to have it detailed out enough tonight for SRS discussion.

[SpyreX]

It works like this:

On a scum lynch only one scum remains. Scum can NOT hide in a different room.

Before lynch run the top two scum dance from everyone.

Split the game into two rooms (this would require at minimum two light sleepers to come out).

The split would be scum 1, scum 3, scum 5 / scum 2, scum 4, scum 6.

Light sleepers say if the players were in their rooms last night. IF someone isn't in the room, they get lynched.

Otherwise, a kill means it is the light sleeper from the other room.

NK doesn't change the basic idea, just always make sure there's enough for not game over if explode happens.

[SpyreX]

Hrm, thats real dependent on the light sleepers. Damnit.

[camn]

Do we even know how many there are?

I would just encourage Everyone to hide, and tomorrow all light sleepers can confirm townies by claiming who they saw... Given scumlynch today, obv

[SpyreX]

I was just trying to win it outright. AND, especially if this was a scum light sleeper flip, I think it'd work.

Organization of the hiding at one left makes a lot of sense, one way or the other.

[camn]

I just fear that the scum would bomb a room, get 3 kills, then it would be 2-1 lylo with shenanigans.

but if it can work, Im for it.

MECHANICS QUESTION

I am not clear... do light sleepers have to stay in their rooms to see who is there? Or can they hide.. AND see?

[Iecerint]

Of everything I brought up that is the least important. To such a degree I'm paranoid it wasn't an accident.

What are you referring to? I responded to all of your comments.

BUT, what happened to the about me having nothing? About me just wanting others to do my work for me? Where is it?

Pure rhetoric. This comment serves no function.

Instead I get "ohh yea I totally would have voted there" and "ohh it was a total accident and SpyreX is the bad dude for it"

This was not new information at all. There is no "ohh yea." And you are indeed a bad dude for hammering.

and even lol, meta meta meta.

You know perfectly well that I invariably self-meta when appropriate as town. I have used this where relevant 100% of the time as town, and I've been town with you many times. You are only saying this for rhetorical effect. You know as well as I do that it has nothing to do with my alignment. It is in fact a statistical towntell due to that second sentence there.

You parked a vote on a town read versus anything else.

This kind of sentence makes me more sure you're scum and not just mistaken. This is not how a town player frames this issue. It shows that you are more concerned with the context a player has constructed before placing a vote rather than external circumstances that led to a vote.

SX has used really shitty logic to call me scum before (in Of Gods and Men). I was in fact so convinced by his bad rhetoric that I thought he might be scum in spite of having already performed a big towntell due to the circumstances of his premature claim in that game. That is the only reason I am not voting SX at this point.

@ camn -- light sleepers must stay in their rooms. They cannot hide and see. That's why we mentioned that TBM's behavior was so weird.

[SpyreX]

I just fear that the scum would bomb a room, get 3 kills, then it would be 2-1 lylo with

shenanigans

.

Thats my hesitation. IF, in a perfect world, there were two awesome light sleepers it wouldn't be an issue.

What are you referring to? I responded to all of your comments.

Not even remotely addressed to you.

Pure rhetoric. This comment serves no function.

The best part is this is far more rhetoric than what I was getting at but LETS DANCE:

^ Sounds made-up to me.

Hey guys I heard SX might be kinda scummy.

You will have to figure out what I am thinking for yourselves, though.

If you can figure it out, I will like you more.

Oh wait. I already let it slip earlier. Too bad.

"If I state a case on Iec and do not explain it but rather invite others to make it for me, and Iec objects to that, he is scum (or, at any rate, you should lynch him). OMG HE IS DOING IT. SCUMZ!"

Um, no. If you do bullshit like "I have a case try to guess it" I am *already* in the candy store.

Anyway, I haven't prevented you from giving a case. And it's not as I have prevented anyone else from doing the same.

I have not entered said candy store because the prior probability of NP or camn being scum is higher, so you have wiggle room from me than you ordinarily would.

Basically, you did something scummy, and now are arguing that you are not scum for having done something so ostentatious.

So, what happened to "SpyreX is just making things up. I mean, he just wants people to make a case. I mean, he's saying guess the case. I mean, even with all this you're not scum but you're scummy"

This was not new information at all. There is no "ohh yea." And you are indeed a bad dude for hammering.

The fact you weren't called out on grandstanding the Kat wagon and sitting on Pom your "town" read under the well, gee shucks.

As for that hammer?

Every time.

I feel no remorse.

HOWEVER, I also don't go "Ohh look he's been lynching town (which I grandstanded the one I said was scum AND then voted the one I thought was town AND he's a filthy hammerer of that wagon he'd been trying to push all day."

You know perfectly well that I invariably self-meta when appropriate as town. I have used this where relevant 100% of the time as town, and I've been town with you many times. You are only saying this for rhetorical effect.

You know as well as I do that it has nothing to do with my alignment. It is in fact a statistical towntell due to that second sentence there.

The two bolded sentences are awesome and best friends.

Ready for some legit SpyreX meta?

Meta is retarded and way overused.

The only thing worse than the "LOOK SEE THIS IS MY TOWN GAME YO AND I KNOW IT AND THUS IN NO WAY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALTERING IT I PROMISE" is the "LOOK THEY ARE SCUMMY BUT THEY ARE ALWAYS SCUMMY SOOO"

You've done both this game. Good job.

This kind of sentence makes me more sure you're scum and not just mistaken. This is not how a town player frames this issue. It shows that you are more concerned with the context a player has constructed before placing a vote rather than external circumstances that led to a vote.

You mean the "question" pom didn't answer? That after she did you left it there and gee-shucks it must be the rest of that wagon?

Get a danglin.

[Iecerint]

Then you are criticizing my view of the game rather than presenting an argument that I am scum. Your case (or, at least, the aspects of it that you discuss in that very lengthy post) is a big ad hominem.

You have misread my comment on your behavior, though. I did not say that you are always scummy. You are not always scummy. You are not even usually scummy. You do, however, have a history of using irrational, bizarre reasoning to think I'm scum when I'm not.

I am aware that you do not like meta. Like much of the rest of that post: what does that have to do with anything?

[SpyreX]

Unless you are the physical embodiment of meta (making you, in fact, the metatron) I have no idea how in the name of everything holy you could even pretend to throw out that new buzzword into the fray.

You have misread my comment on your behavior, though. I did not say that you are always scummy. You are not always scummy. You are not even usually scummy. You do, however, have a history of using irrational, bizarre reasoning to think I'm scum when I'm not.

I am aware that you do not like meta. Like much of the rest of that post: what does that have to do with anything?

If I really have to respond to this at the behest of others then I will.

Otherwise, I'm quoting it so that the masses can see how bendy-straw this is and vote accordingly.

[nopointinactingup]

@Spyrex:
+ Your case about Iec's inconsistency bears some validity. However, I will have to disagree with you about Iec's motive for not voting. I've played with Iec-townmate + Iec-scummate before and his description of his meta fits my observation of his previous games. He is usually hesitant to vote as town and not so as scum.
+ I also like your plans for the following days. If a pair of Light Sleeper + Heavy Sleeper bears an inconsistency, there is bound to be scum among them so that could narrow down our options a lot.
+ Why do you believe Sapo is town?

At this point, I don't like Camn's sheep vote on Iec at all. Immediately when there's a way for another wagon to kick off ( note she doesn't jumpstart the Iec wagon herself despite the pressure being on her. Maybe she just legitimately can't ), she happily follows the Iec wagon. Her enthusiasm is sounding more like survivalist instinct than of genuine agreement. She cherry picks the posts where she mentioned Iec as scum when no one is asking that of her. Why do that if you are town who has a genuine scum read on Iec? Why even think about trying to over-explain? Thus, I still think Camn needs to be lynched before all else.
@Mike: Why do you think Iec is Camn's buddy? Look at the way Camn is sheeping the Iec wagon.

[Iecerint]

It is not "bendy-straw" -- it is a very meaningful distinction. You usually seem very town to me in general. That is literally the opposite of you always seeming scum, so it is meaningfully not the same thing.

It's only your attitude toward my play specifically, especially in recent games, that I instinctually regard as scummy (because it strikes me as irrational), even though I know you have done it where we are both town (and I give Of Gods and Men as an example).

Regarding camn's vote for me -- it does seem odd to me, especially since she'd just called me town like 10 posts in a row or something (in retrospect, maybe because I was in a position to hammer her at that time). I'd have expected her to refer back to that or see evidence of grappling with a change of heart or something, but I mostly just saw her express excitement at SX's detective skills IIRC.

NP -- what is your attitude toward my speculation about the vezok wagon? You're the 3rd player for whom it is relevant.

If we have 3 LSs left, that kind of plan might work. If we have 2 left (my assumption, but idk), it's OK. With 1 left, it is a bad idea. I am ambivalent about the plan.

[camn]

I'll sheep SPYREX when he is in a mood like this Any Time!
I believe in adding power to obvtownies by bloc voting.

Would I rather be voting Nopoint? Yes.
Are Nopoint and Ice partners? Yes.
Do I still think we need to serial lynch the vezo wagon till we hit scum? Yes.
Did you all have your chance to lynch me, but failed to get 4 votes? Yes.

[Iecerint]

Why is SX obvtown? I assume you're convinced by the character of his attack on me?

If you think NP and I are partners, your vezok wagon plan does not make sense.

Also, why do you think NP in particular is my partner?

This absurd notion that you are town (excuse me -- that you can't be lynched) because it became Saturday without my deciding to hammer you remains absurd.

[camn]

no.. YOUR idea of one and ONLY one scum on the Vezo wagon makes no sense.

MY idea of at LEAST one scum on the vezo wagon makes plenty of sense.
And my PLAN to lynch until we see scum, then reassess.. makes even MORE sense.

And Maybe I CANT be lynched! An attempt was made. That attempt failed. I don't think it clears me.. I just think that this TOWN would be better served by moving on, rather than sitting on a suspect (me) that is suboptimal.

And yes.. this is an ObvTown move by Spyrex. You should admit that yourself.

[Iecerint]

I don't think a double buss of camn+NP makes much sense. That is why I think there is exactly 1 scum. I also don't think that that is a very likely scum pairing. At the very least, the vezok wagon should no longer be the basis of scumhunting after a scum has flipped there.

What makes you suboptimal from a neutral PoV? That I, one of the players promoting your lynch, didn't want to lynch you just yet?

I see SX diverting attention away from you with logic that can only be arrived at by ignoring his own play history with me. Since the two of you were my top suspects that could be partners (since camn+NP is less likely), it is not obvtown to me at all.

I think you ignored my other question. Why do you think NP in particular is my partner?

[SpyreX]

+ Your case about Iec's inconsistency bears some validity. However, I will have to disagree with you about Iec's motive for not voting. I've played with Iec-townmate + Iec-scummate before and his description of his meta fits my observation of his previous games. He is usually hesitant to vote as town and not so as scum.
+ I also like your plans for the following days. If a pair of Light Sleeper + Heavy Sleeper bears an inconsistency, there is bound to be scum among them so that could narrow down our options a lot.
+ Why do you believe Sapo is town?

1.) The issue isn't just the not voting (which is bad). Its not even the cheerleading (which is super bad). Its the combination of the two with the cognitive dissonance of "Ohh yea SpyreX is pushin them thar town wagons".
2.) My worry, and maybe I'm missing something, is that my plan is a town win for sure IF the light sleepers are town. IF the light sleeper is scum then it becomes a lot more dicey.
3.) Just a gut read. Like I said, klaxons went off on commenting on the MPR hammer but not anything else I said.

It is not "bendy-straw" -- it is a very meaningful distinction. You usually seem very town to me in general. That is literally the opposite of you always seeming scum, so it is meaningfully not the same thing.

Leaving aside the fact this is all meta junk again lets get to the crux:

Did MY behavior change? Have I been this scum-notscum whatever you call it all along?

Because, you better damn well be able to say what changed.

[Iecerint]

Light sleepers of both alignments have already flipped. We know that both factions have light sleepers.

I don't think we know how many light sleepers there are, though. Am I mistaken?

I don't understand your questions about the "crux." These are my feelings about you:

1. You're suspicious for the voting and rhetorical habits of your slot: lynching townies, not lynching scum, pushing proven-false scum dichotomies (Katsu/Pome) on townies.

2. But the chance of you being scum is smaller than camn or NP, because each of those are near 50% presuming at least 1 scum bussed, whereas the scum who isn't them is in a larger subset of players, so finding camn/NPscum is a better first exercise, all things being equal.

3. Your attack on me is bad, and I've tried to explain why you should really understand that, and it would be extremely scummy if it were (almost) anyone else doing it, but I think you said similar things about me in Of Gods and Men (D1 there, though, so some things obviously are different), so I know it isn't beyond townSX to do this sometimes.

In other words, (1), even with (3), is not sufficient to overshadow (2).

If that doesn't answer your "crux" question, please restate it.

[Ellibereth]

I'M HERE AND CATCHING UP!!!!

[Ellibereth]

I need to reread all thr stuff between Spy and Yerk since I'm not getting it off a skim...YES I'LL BE REREREADING IT NOW NOT LATER.

mongoose

(7): saporovirus, nopointinactingup, SpyreX,

Katsuki

, camn, Ellibereth,

vezokpiraka

vezokpiraka

(6): camn,

The Buttonmen

,

Pomegranate

,

Katsuki

, nopointinactingup, Iecerint

Katsuki

(6): SpyreX,

Pomegranate

, nopointinactingup, saporovirus, camn,

The Buttonmen

Pomegranate

(5): Iecerint, Ellibereth, camn, nopointinactingup, SpyreX


and I had totally forgotten about offwagon

Off Mongoose was: Mikeburn and Yerk
Off vezok was: Spy, mikeburn, sapo, and moi
Off Katsu was Yerk, Mikeburn and moi
Off Pomen was: Mikeburn and Sapo

^^^I think these are right.

[Ellibereth]

Oh...I HAD totally missed the vezok wagon last time...which plus my town reads PoE's nicely to Yerk...
Ok time to figure out what's happening.

[Ellibereth]

Actually, what's the vote count? Can I just vote without knowing what's going on at this point yet or??...
wait nvm.

SPY, SORRY IF YOU HAD SAID THIS BEFORE PREVIOUSLY, BUT I'M GOING WAY BACK AND THIS IS STILL BUGGING ME: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 4#p2568764

I know I'm a hypocrite and etc. and i don't remember what he did at all but...what did tasnt do. >.>

[mikeburnfire]

Am I still voting camn? *checks* Good, I am.

HEY CAMN IF YOU CAN'T GET A LYNCH BEFORE SATURDAY WILL YOU GIVE UP THIS LYNCH Y/N?