ok, there we go. I am going to conclude this wall with a vote and with the strong suggestion that we make a lynch follow that vote.
First, as I promise, I will comment on vollkan's posts in reply to my case on "him" (or, more precisely, on the jailers).
vollkan wrote:
Scum routinely kill power roles even if there is the risk of a protective role existing. It’s always a risk, and I don’t think you can seriously argue that it is scummy in this particular game when the risk is taken all the time by scum (and, don’t forget, that they were able to kill power roles on Nights 1 and 2 which, if anything, would have made them less likely to think that there were protective roles).
This is correct. On the other hand, I was suggesting to use a bottom-up systemic approach to the problem. If there was a night in which the vig was less likely to be protected/watched/guarded
oder was auch immer
, that was the night that followed a tracker claim. Since no protective role ever died, and since scum had very powerful pr's (a gf, a watcher), then it would have been correct to assume that someone would have have been there to protect the claimed tracker (in my priority list, a tracker who is not cc'd is more dangerous than a vig)... therefore I found the idea of scum being informed on the protective activity of town(?) jailers very attractive.
But... there is a but:
vollkan wrote:
Final post, I promise.
I just thought of a useful analogy that might better illustrate my problem with the N3/N4 argument:
Country X and Country Y are at war. X has 10 nuclear missile bases (numbered B1 to B10). X also has an anti-missile defence system (MDS) able to protect 1 base at a time. Only Mr Smith, a defence specialist of X, knows which base is protected by MDS.
In June 2009, Smith decides to use the MDS to protect B1, In that same month, Y decides to make an attack on X's nuclear capabilities and decides to bomb B2, despite it being the second-best base.
In July, Smith becomes fearful that there may be enemy agents working in B10, so he decides to travel to B10 and personally investigate its staff, leaving no base protected. That same month, Y decides to launch another attack, this time bombing B6, a mediocre base, of far less strategic value than B1.
In August, the media learn the background to the June attack. Smith is accused of being a traitor, on the basis that it makes no sense that Y would decide to target B2, an inferior base, over B1 - unless they knew that B1 was protected, which could only mean that Smith was guilty of treason.
Smith, fearing mob retribution, receives permission from The X Defence Department to go public with the information that, in July, Y destroyed B6, even though B1 was unprotected. In a press conference, Smith makes the point that if Y was being informed about the MDS's location and considered B1 a high-priority targeted, then they should have targeted B1 in July. As such, Smith argues, it makes no sense to hold Smith responsible for the June attack and, moreover, it appears that B1 is not considered a high-priority target.
you are correct here. We can paraphrase this and simply wonder: why wasn't I (Pom) killed on N4? Three possible answers:
1) answer 1: Because I am scum.
2) answer 2: Because scum was convinced that Jack was a PR. "Insider information" may have meant that Jack was in contact with Silver; they may have thought that he was some kind of deputy tracker. The second advantage of this option is that scum could easily invoke answer 1 and say: lew is still alive, he must be scum. I am surprised that they did not.
3) answer 3: Because they assumed I was probably going to be protected (knowing that they had not saved a2rudeboy, they knew for a fact that a protective role did exist). In this case, both jailers must be town.
Regarding LMP's reread post, just a few observations:
referring to Snake's accusation at CKD, LMP writes:
LMP wrote:
Some of you may scream WIFOM at this, but I see this as evidence that CKD is town. For one, the scum watcher targeted CKD (presumably to catch a protective role that might try to save the vig) and for another, if CKD was scum, there is no reason scum-Snake would have come out like this and tried to push his lynch. I don't see how there would have been enough gain to bus at this point.
I am confused. Say CKD is not mafia. Even if he convinced town to vote CKD, there are two possible outcomes:
1) CKD turns out to be a visiting role: he lied about part of his claim, but he is town;
2) CKD is now just a VT.
In both cases, Snake gets lynched the following day. Or, more likely, I will shoot him at night. What was the advantage? Does it even make sense?
I am fairly convinced that CKD is town, too, and I think that this was just a noobish attempt by mafia watcher. But still I would not define it a proof of CKD's innocence.
LMP wrote:
Everyone please pay attention to this: Tomorrow, if either of the JKs are dead, you cannot trust what the living JK claims the target was. I just want to make sure this is out there, so there is no confusion about it. If we're both alive, then of course we can use that information, since our role can only JK with both players consent (while we're both alive that is), but if either of us dies tonight, the other could be lying about who (if anyone) got JKed.
I'll have to agree on this. It is worth trying to save both JK's til tomorrow. I am confident they will be wise enough to know what they must do tonight, because there is a good pro-town strategy they can follow in order to minimize tha chances of a successful night for the scum team. I am not saying anything more, because both players are pretty good and I don't want anyone to see the cards before we bet.
Therefore, my vote and my suggestion is:
vote: a2rudeboy
Used to play a lot, haven't played for like 8 years, would like to play again.
) were it not for the fact that no matter what CKD's alignment it looks like a noobish move so there's a risk (but not, I think a particulalry high one) that Snake might have thought it would be a good bussing idea, but I find it hard to believe that CKD-scum would approve of something like that.