Well, I'd say we are pretty much screwed.
If the scum don't vote for their partner, we need every single townie to vote for the same person. While, individually I guess we have a 40% of lynching scum, there's also 2 people who may only be voting for townies and working against the town. So I'm going to do it as 33%. Pessimistically
I was thinking that Ant's strange reaction to the doctor possibility was probably a denial that it's factored into every NK discussion. Mad also had an "explosive" reaction, though one I think is less scummy.
Read and see if you agree!
Whatever the actual probability we have of getting a scum, the doctor has a 25% of dying, and that's if we don't lynch a townie. Realistically, it's probably much higher thanks to us discussing it, in which case it doesn't matter who they protect and whatever they knows goes down the drain. A doc's protect seems to be good on only one person, from an information standpoint, as they must basically continue protecting the same person to preserve the usefulness. Getting an extra day-time lynch would be the second realistic purpose (what like two protections I think?). It would appear that the doc protected Elibereth the first two nights but not the third. Probably a decent argument (though not from me here) could be made that out-guessing, tricking the scums, and protect vs NK is WIFOM and very nearly random.
SO, if we lynch, and miss, the doctor has a 33% chance of dying, and only a 25% chance of protecting someone. So actually, this scenario has a 16.6667% or 1/6 chance of working out for us.
And to say it works out really well doesn't take into account multiple claims or a counter-claim situation. The probability of which going either way is probably impossible to determine.
The overall odds of lynching now come to about...(I cant remember where I was going with this)...50%...which is very closely identical to if we let the scum narrow our numbers by 1.
So yeah, it doesn't matter what we do I guess.
Though, no-lynching makes the doctors role almost completely useless as we have no guarantee at that point the the scum won't submit no-kills a couple times just to fuck with the doctor's head, and no guarantee that the doctor's "confirmed townie" result isn't on a scum.
Also, as mentioned by someone else, there might be people who are not in real danger of being lynched who are killed N-4. In which case it was pointless if we had agreed on such people today (unspoken agreement of course), unless the doctor protects them, assuming there's not 2 claims, assuming it wasn't a no-kill submission, assuming the first one wasn't that.
Basically, we're boned.
Thinking out loud I spose. That is, we're boned...UNLESS WE LYNCH ANT!
