Newbie 1027: Trick or Treat! [Game Over]

[Neruz]

I will give you this though; while i remain open to the possibility that park is town, since ovbiously i cannot be certain until he flips, it would require some very extraordinary evidence to convince me that lynching today right now is not a good idea.

[Neruz]

lynching him today*, not lynching today right now

Bit of a wordo there, sorry.

[Thor665]

Just as an example of different opinions;

Thor Believes

Considering NKs is smart and pro-town.
Lurking isn't scummy, it's null. Active lurking is scummy.
Town do contradict themselves, and indeed, do it more often then scum

Also, for more fun, let's consider exactly what WIFOM is;
"Scum wouldn't d X, A did X, therefore A isn't scum"
Town wouldn't do a contradiction, park did a contradiction, therefore park isn't town.
Is there WIFOM here?

I'm starting to blur the lines between teaching and arguing my case here, but I really want you to consider the above for a moment before you dismiss anything as WIFOM again. I do apologize for getting into the WIFOM argument with you.
Now, please, look at park again and ask yourself how strong the case really is and please consider the NK - WIFOM or not, scum did it for a reason - why would parkscum endorse that NK?

[chkflip]

- Shouldn't we consider the fact that Charlie (the actual person NK'ed) had no read on anyone? As opposed to who Charlie replaced... who thought park was scummy. Is it such a stretch to think that park didn't want a fresh face looking at his previously overtly scummy behavior and bring it back up? Much like Neruz just did (only there's no way to kill Neruz right now since we're fully into D2), the same argument that park

won't

argue/refute because he knows he

can't

. He's said that much outright.

[Neruz]

Ugh, Thor, i am fully well aware that the WIFOM starts when you get into a 'i know he knows' loop. Stating "Scum wouldn't d X, A did X, therefore A isn't scum" is not in itself WIFOM, but it invites WIFOM because the next ovbious step in the statement is "But what if that's what he wants me to think."

It's that second step you need to avoid unless abslutely neccessary.

As for the NK; Mothrax\Charlie is a safe kill. The only thing of importance he did D1 was to put park at L-1 and poked him a little, i can absolutely see park endorsing that NK due to fear that Mothrax would evolve his case into something more solid and persue park, alternately park could have endorsed it because it's a safe kill, or we could have an elaborate plan involving bussing.

Any of those and more are possible, i have witnessed and taken part in some truely impressive gambits built around NK choices, but for everyone of those i've seen a dozen where the NK choices were quite straightforward, so for now i'll go with the statistically most probable result; Charlie was killed because he was a safe kill. Mothrax had expressed no real solid opinions prior to the game and Charlie had only just replaced in, he was a null player. Were i scum i probably would have made the same kill as it's completely risk free and no solid conclusions beyond that can really be drawn from it.


On a related note Thor; i'm getting a very strong gut feeling that you're trying to get me to say something you can use against me, possibly to distract the town from park. This concerns me, doubly so because i'm having quite a hard time reading you.

You believe that park is town; a conclusion that goes against the odds and ovbious scumtells. Why are you discounting the ovbious scumtells so easily? It's not like park's scumtells are an aberration in an otherwise solid town play; they're the first and only solid alignment tells he's given us. If park was otherwise presenting a strong town image i could understand second guessing the scumtells, but he isn't, so i find your play concerning.

[Neruz]

Eww, the caffeine must be wearing off, my grammar and sentance structure is terrible.

[Neruz]

ARE terrible. Christ.

[KittyMo]

Vote Count

[L-2] parknourie - (Neruz, chkflip)

[L-3] ooBAZZoo - (Thor665)
[L-3] chkflip - (parknourie)
[L-3] Thor665 - (ooBAZZoo)

[2]

Not Voting

- (andrew94, Maniamax)

With

7

alive, it's

4

to lynch!

Deadline is at Saturday, December 11, 2010 at 12:00:00 Noon (San Jose time).

Prods & Replacements

none needed

[Thor665]

Ugh, Thor, i am fully well aware that the WIFOM starts when you get into a 'i know he knows' loop. Stating "Scum wouldn't d X, A did X, therefore A isn't scum" is not in itself WIFOM, but it invites WIFOM because the next ovbious step in the statement is "But what if that's what he wants me to think."

It's that second step you need to avoid unless abslutely neccessary.

Huzzah! I believe you are very correct in this, and also by being correct you show that at no point did I delve into WIFOM (nor is NK speculation inherently WIFOM) You, sir, are the man.

On a related note Thor; i'm getting a very strong gut feeling that you're trying to get me to say something you can use against me, possibly to distract the town from park. This concerns me, doubly so because i'm having quite a hard time reading you.

Why so nervous?
Also, I think it's pretty clear I'm trying to run up BAZZ to distract the town from park, try to keep up

You believe that park is town; a conclusion that goes against the odds and ovbious scumtells. Why are you discounting the ovbious scumtells so easily?

This is actually a decent question.
I would say I'm "discounting" them so easily because I see the "tells" as indicative of one thing primarily - unoptimal play.
In a newbie game you often have to slog through unoptimal play while looking for scum, and I've played in a lot of newbie games and have seen and participated in the mislynching of players who did things that I cannot imagine town players ever doing. Consequently in newbie games I am perhaps more...tolerant of that sort of behavior because I find it less often has a clear correlation back to alignment then one would hope. All you and I are doing is standing at opposite ends of the same conclusion - you look at his play and think "too terrible to be town" whilst I meanwhile look at it and think "too terrible to be scum" Statistically the odds are actually in my favor, while deductively they are probably in yours.

As you chew on that here's another question for you;

Why do you think chkflip is town?

[chkflip]

@Thor:
- I don't think he's being nervous; on the contrary, I think he's simply being cautious because you have a tendency for stretching out what people say to fit your own opinion on people's answers. Town tell to me.

[Thor665]

And yet I've already called him town and the focus of our discussion has been about another player's alignment. He's being nervous. If you consider that a town tell then more power to you.

[andrew94]

^ whos being nervous?

[parknourie]

Sorry I havent been able to post lately.
I suppose everyone can see it, I noticed the strong buddying of Neruz and Chkflip during the past few pages.
Not only did they voted me (one with reasons, other with intention to sheep) they never seem to be really addressing each other on anything.
This shows a weak distancing between these two players. Although it isn't completely buddying, their connection to each other is undeniable.
First, Neruz votes me with reasons of contradiction in my early posts with enough details.
Then, Chkflip comes along straightafter and then votes me with i-dunno-i-know-you-are-scum attitude and claims that his arguments are COMPLETELY different from Neruz's.
Obviously if they use similar reasons with each other to attack me would be found by others as fishy. However, forcibly using different angles to attack is quite noticeable as well.
Neruz wasnt really on my radar before (or should i say Huntman) but now, after replacing the previous player, Neruz does almost everything to undo what Huntman did before.
I'll have my eyes on him.

[Neruz]

And yet I've already called him town and the focus of our discussion has been about another player's alignment. He's being nervous. If you consider that a town tell then more power to you.

Not nervous, paranoid
I'm having difficulty getting a solid read off you which is making me disquiet, primarily because it's not uncommon for scum to engage in discussions about 'tricky' subjects in an attempt to manufacture a case. As you

are

my third scum suspect at the moment (although tbh i'm not entirely sure andrew is actually scum and not just annoying), this makes me weary of a chainsaw.

Why do you think chkflip is town?

I havn't seen anything from him that suggests he is scum. I might have missed something, but so far none of his posts have pinged my scumdar.

Neruz wasnt really on my radar before (or should i say Huntman) but now, after replacing the previous player, Neruz does almost everything to undo what Huntman did before.
I'll have my eyes on him.

I'm torn as to whether that is garden variaty idiocy or an attempt to manufacture a 'scum tell'.

[parknourie]

@Neruz - I'm making a case on my own, I don't see anything scummy about that.

[parknourie]

The argument between Thor and BAZZ, to me, almost seems like something that is casually occuring between two towns. The more sinister plot i think, is yet to be revealed.
The convenient position of No Votes taken by Mania and Andrew is worth noting as well.

[andrew94]

^ faints*

how the hell can i vote when chkflip is doing what gud did to me on day 1. and neruz is just saying- andrew's case is terrible.

wtf

[Neruz]

@Neruz - I'm making a case on my own, I don't see anything scummy about that.

Your and andrew's focus on my completely ignoring what Huntman did is, as i said, either garden variaty idiocy or a really transparent attempt to make me look scummy. I'm really hoping it's the idiocy, because if not i somehow managed to overestimate you.

[andrew94]

^ scum falacly. making us choose between retardedness and scumminess.
i choose that your scummy.
you dont just come in, 180 degrees turn around.
otherwise, every time we wana lynch, the dude gets replaced and we gotta start over again

[ooBAZZoo]

Just a though: It seems there are no clear wagons emerging, with suspicions varying from person to person. We still have time before the deadline, so this isn't too much of an issue, but If we are going to reach a majority people need to avoid tunnelling and consider each other's reads.

---

On Neruz and Chk's case against Park:

I'm finding it hard to come to a conclusion about Park. I admit he has done a number of things that could be seen as clear scumtells. However, his general play seems too obvious for scum (for want of a better way of expressing myself). For example, the more I read his hammer post from D1, the less I can conceive it has come from scum. It seems too open and honest for scum who would be very careful about how they present themselves given that the hammer is always a centre of focus.
As scummy as I find Thor, I have to agree with him on this:

I would also hazard that everyone here would agree that if they were scum they would tend not to just drop a hammer on a guy who they had said a few posts earlier was not that scummy.
So, considering that;
park is either one of the worst scum players ever because he doesn't consider *once* how scummy his actions might look.
or
park is town who isn't worried about how scummy his actions might look because, hey, he's town.

Also, I've re-read the case presented in Neruz's #419 and Chk's (slightly less persuasive) #420. Whilst I agree that most of the points are true (e.g. he did hop bandwagons, etc, etc) I don't see these acts being particularly scum motivated.

Because he has done things that are "scummy", I'm not going to write him off, but at the moment, the possibility of him being poor-town is slightly higher IMO (no offence Park). Whilst I'd hammer him to avoid a no-lynch, I think there are scummier players out there atm.

---

@Park - How well do you think you've played so far?

[ooBAZZoo]

Also, we really need to see more from Maniamax.
He's barely posted in D2, turning up just enough to avoid being replaced, and his lurking is starting to hurt town.

He has managed to avoid suspicion most of the game, so if he is scum active-lurking deliberately, his tactic is paying off.

@Mod - Has Mania received a prod/is he due one?

[parknourie]

@ BAZZ - I think I have improved from the earlier stage of this game till now.

[KittyMo]

Vote Count

[L-2] parknourie - (Neruz, chkflip)

[L-3] ooBAZZoo - (Thor665)
[L-3] chkflip - (parknourie)
[L-3] Thor665 - (ooBAZZoo)

[2]

Not Voting

- (andrew94, Maniamax)

With

7

alive, it's

4

to lynch!

Deadline is at Saturday, December 11, 2010 at 12:00:00 Noon (San Jose time).

Prods & Replacements

Prodding

Maniamax

by request.

Note: I'm going to be V/LA starting tomorrow until late Sunday.

Nikanor

will be watching the thread during that time. Be on your best behavior!

[Neruz]

NIKARNNNOOOOORRRRRRRR!

[Nikanor]

yo.