Last Will Mafia II (Over)

[Locke Lamora]

Oh, and I'd like to know what everyone thinks on the subject of how many scum there are left. If everyone could simply answer that question in their next post, that'd be great.

[Rhinox]

Oh, and I'd like to know what everyone thinks on the subject of how many scum there are left. If everyone could simply answer that question in their next post, that'd be great.

probably 1, maybe 2. Defintely not 3.

You want reasoning yet, or just the number?

[Locke Lamora]

Just the number is fine. If anyone still thinks there are two teams, I'd like to know that too.

Some things I've been thinking about and I think are important to keep in mind when reading over the game:

1. Scum have done a pretty good job of getting town mislynched.
2. Scum haven't done a very good job of getting town to give them their votes, otherwise this would have been over a long time ago.

[Nachomamma8]

One team, three scum left.

I don't see where the hell Rhinox got one from.

[holycon]

maybe 2 or 3

[Nachomamma8]

Batt, I've managed to ignore your response for so long because I thought more was coming. Sorry about that.

came in strong against Ythan- I hadn't read yet, only saw the double claim, and jumped on Ythan because everyone else was on Richard/spouting Ythan must be town. My "assault" for the rest of the day was trying to slow the quick wagon on Richard down in order to get more information for the day and it wasn't proven that Richard was beyond a doubt scum at that point (Ythan could have been lying/third party RB). I "distanced from the wagon" I didn't think Richard was scum, but the quick wagon on him earlier was scummy and his lynch would have given us information. ---- To sum up that paragraph- I've been vocally against Ythan, while my votes weren't. I could see that as me trying to distance myself from him, but you can't really hold that against me UNTIL Ythan flips as the basis of the argument is derived from BOTH me and Ythan are scum.

Right. In retrospect, I'm actually more uncomfortable with this section now that Ythan's flipped town instead of scum. Scum do have the luxury of knowing alignments, so this reads as an attempt to clear himself through the entire "Ythan + me is a team or I'm town" scenario. ScumBatt certainly had reason to try to discredit a player who was (at first) obvtown. I don't think that his attacking of Ythan at that point was scummy now that he's clarified it.
Two questions, though. 1) Third Party RB? What do you mean by that, and why did you think it was a possibility? 2) If you thought the wagon was scummy, then why did you attack Ythan as opposed to the people actually on it?

Second paragragh- Plum suspicioun was based on the fact Plum/KMD were basically the same player. Everything Plum said KMD supported. Everything KMD said, Plum supported just about. This was the strongest relationship in the game in my mind. I was on KMD that day and focused on him (tangently focused on Plum for her defense of him and the way she waved me off as scum for attacking him) and therefore was left near the end of the day with the option of a Plum or Chrono lynch. Who should I want lynched, the person who walks hand in hand with the scummiest player in the game, or the person I felt was neutral scum? I went with Plum, independently scummy based on Raider's vote hopping D1, and her buddying to a player that should be unknown alignment to her.

Why didn't the Plum flip change your mind about kmd, then?

To the fact that it was unlikely to wagon 2 scum players at the end of day when we previously had 4 town mislynches... Statistically, as more town players die, the more likely scum will be lynched. With 8 down (I think 8 down at the time) and with an estimated 6 scum, the chances of wagoning scum is 40% (6/15). For the second, thats 35.7% (5/14). But that doesn't account for the human element.

Fair enough.

Also, I meant to say ISO #74 & #75, not #73 and #74.
In #74, I'd like your SSBF vote explained a little more.
ISO #75 is referring to your kmd read. WIFOM is not an adequate defense for that post.

[Nachomamma8]

Es, you still haven't explained why you piggybacked off Batt's terrible reasoning.

Locke is town. You should know this. After kunk DK'd kmd, locke had 11 votes. Plus kunk, 12 votes. Meaning that he would've only needed one more member to win. In other words, if you believe that he is scum, you only think that there's one scum member left. Meaning that you should be putting a bit more effort in your Locke read.

Rhinox, the same goes to you. Why don't you believe Locke is scum? He fits in your bussing theory, doesn't he?

[esuriospiritus]

Es, you still haven't explained why you piggybacked off Batt's terrible reasoning.

Locke is town. You should know this. After kunk DK'd kmd, locke had 11 votes. Plus kunk, 12 votes. Meaning that he would've only needed one more member to win. In other words, if you believe that he is scum, you only think that there's one scum member left. Meaning that you should be putting a bit more effort in your Locke read.

Hmm, I don't know, maybe I haven't explained because I couldn't be bothered to glance at the thread yet!

To be frank, the fact that I have complete and utter Mafia apathy (mafia in general, not just this game) pretty much explains my actions (or more likely, lack thereof) for the past 2 months or so. Only reason I haven't replaced out is because I don't think anyone in their right mind would replace in to a 100+ page game that didn't revolve around a chess mechanic more than it did mafia.

You raise a good point about Locke, and I find it hard to believe there is only one scum left. Two, maybe, but not one. Early reads die hard though, lolz.

Batt and especially Rhinox (and I suppose now Locke) are on my no-lynch list, mostly due to early read awesomeness. Nacho's edged closer to being on that list over the last few game days but the early game apathy still has me feeling kinda meh about him (plus, there has to be at least two scum, right?) That leaves... holy. Process of elimination, eh?

vote: holy

If we lynch holy and she flips town I suppose I'd have to re-evaluate one of my uber-town reads to keep with the 2-scum theory, in which case I'd probably be swayed by the overwhelming game opinion that's been saying Batt is scum for ages now sooner than I'd lynch Rhinox, who I felt most kicked town into gear in the early game. But meh.

[Rhinox]

I don't see where the hell Rhinox got one from.

I hinted at it earlier in the game but didn't dwell on it because there really isn't a downside to assuming more scum than less. Until we start coming to conclusions on who is/isn't scum based on number of votes and scum remaining anyways.

But this isn't a normal game. When we lynch scum, their power/influence does not necessarily leave the game. Their votes may end up going to their scum partners. Town also have a chance to send votes to scum - more scum means more likely scum are to receive votes from town and a greater chance scum win more quickly.

Thus, I expect scum to be scomewhat less numerous in this game than a game with normal mechanics.

Locke is town. You should know this. After kunk DK'd kmd, locke had 11 votes. Plus kunk, 12 votes. Meaning that he would've only needed one more member to win. In other words, if you believe that he is scum, you only think that there's one scum member left. Meaning that you should be putting a bit more effort in your Locke read.

Rhinox, the same goes to you. Why don't you believe Locke is scum? He fits in your bussing theory, doesn't he?

umm I'm confused. I think you're saying the right thing but with the wrong vote totals. Locke has 10, kunk made 11. 12 is majority, so in order for Locke to be scum today, he has to be the last and only scum. If there are 2 or more scum right now, Locke can not be scum because the game would have been over yesterday after the daykill.

So to answer why Locke is not scum - just because he

can

be scum does not me he is more likely to be scum for starters. If there is 1 scum left, it CAN be locke, but that doesn't mean I should abandon the rest of my reads from the game and conclude that locke IS scum. And if there are 2 scum, which I haven't ruled out, then Locke is confirmed town by way of number of votes yesterday after KMD's death and while kunk was still alive.

So why should I believe locke is scum, especially if you think there are 3 scum left?


Nacho, from your POV {Rhinox, Batt, esurio, holy} 3 scum here out of 4? Who do you see as the likely town in the group?

[Locke Lamora]

Esurio: are you aware that's an awful excuse that we're just going to have to ignore? 'Oh yeah, anything scummy I did in the last two months? Probably just because I'm not paying attention'. As far as I remember, you never upgraded me past null, so I'll ask again: why open today saying I'm one of the two scummiest? What gave you that read?

[esuriospiritus]

Nope. Not trying to excuse my behaviour, just explain it. Big difference. 'Excuse' connotes being apologetic/having done something wrong, and I am offering no apology nor do I particularly feel that I've done anything wrong/scummy. (Blatantly and unabashedly half-assing my way through the last few game days isn't pro-anything except maybe pro-jester).

As far as I remember, you never upgraded me past null, so I'll ask again: why open today saying I'm one of the two scummiest? What gave you that read?

Simple process of elimination. Pretty much everyone else reads as townier than you to me, aside from the detail that you would have won already if you were scum.

[Battousai]

Locke- I wasn't acting like kunk being a vig was not new information, I "acted" as if kunk being a vig impossible due to the fact that he killed Kmd. We just reacted to different reasons. Personally, I see town lie in massclaim more than I see a day vig kill someone they weren't suspicious of (especially if the rest of the town believed the person was town).

Locke- Oh ok, I missed it probably due to seeing the Rhinox, nacho, locke combo in both the first and third point and glanced over it. Point still stands that scum is among them (though not for the reason I thought), but from it I'm more suspicious of Rhinox over esurio/holy.

Locke- If there are two scum teams, then I would imagine that there are two left (but that also assumes the Columbian team has been wiped out), otherwise I would guess 1-2 for only 1 team left.

Nacho- Third party RB is in reference to there being an anti-town RB in the game that could incriminate both Richard and Ythan by blocking one of them (since the both claimed or alluded to wanting to kill millar the day before) and is third party to richard and ythan (first and second party).

Nacho- I'll have to go back and look to see if I did attack players on the wagon (I think I did), but for the most part I was trying to slow down the Richard wagon due to everyone saying that Richard or Ythan is lieing and that Richard is most likely lieing over Ythan and to attack a third party wouldn't get much support nor slow down a building wagon.

Nacho- Kmd's alignment was not based on Plum's actions towards Kmd, but Plum's alignment was mostly based on Plum's actions towards Kmd. If you look at Kmd's play, especially the night kill analysis, that seems not like town Kmd. Apparently Kmd was playing suboptimally to what I came to expect (the night action analysis was really unuseful, and he didn't even bother to finish it).

Nacho- 74 wasn't really pointed at me, but to Jahudo's? defense of me. Could you rephrase it a bit so I know exactly what questions you have of me?

Nacho- 75 I don't my style of attacks on Kmd weakened the case, as it shouldn't. It's the points I made that mattered. You have a reasonable read on it, but you are wrong. I was convinced that Kmd was not scum. He acted not to what I expected of him, and I guess I tunneled on him for it.

Nacho- 75 It's a town action that benefits scum. It appears he is attacking scummy people, but it benefits scum as he is not trying to lynch scummy people with multiple votes (aka remove votes from scum).

Rhinox- When you suppose that the amount of scum to be less in this game, did you look at the last last will game? I believe there were 2 teams of 3 scum. Due to crosskills the total may be less (especially since the town didn't have many PR's) than 6, but 4 or 5 may be reasonable. Why would 3 scum be an adequate replacement for 2 teams of 3?

[Nachomamma8]

#74 - Just explain your SSBF vote a bit more.

So why should I believe locke is scum, especially if you think there are 3 scum left?

You shouldn't. You should, however, at least look a bit deeper into him. I must ask though, what does my belief have to do with anything?

Nacho, from your POV {Rhinox, Batt, esurio, holy} 3 scum here out of 4? Who do you see as the likely town in the group?

I think the town of that group would be holycon, hands down. Likeliest scum is still esurio for me.

[holycon]

I doubt esurio is town.
Batt, responses to my ISO #73 and ISO #74.

Why do you think that esurio isn't town?

nacho i dont think you ever answered my question here

[esuriospiritus]

Deadline's in a week, guys. Just FYI.

[Locke Lamora]

What do you think of Nacho as Holy's partner, esurio?

[Rhinox]

You shouldn't. You should, however, at least look a bit deeper into him. I must ask though, what does my belief have to do with anything?

I guess I'm just a little confused at what you're getting at. If you're pretty sure there is more than 1 scum left, then why should I look a little deeper into Locke? more than 1 scum means locke is town.

And just from a different perspective - I already said this, but even if I were 100% sure there were 1 scum left, that wouldn't be evidence that locke was the scum. Setup speculation aside, right now locke would probably be the last player I would lynch today anyways. My votes are going to you, holy, or batt today, I'd pretty much already determined that at the start of the day.

[esuriospiritus]

@Locke: Definitely plausible, especially given the 2nd half of 2887.

[Battousai]

Sorry I've been gone. Had only sporadic internet connection lately.

Nacho- SSBF case... It was more to the fact that I thought scum were pushing the ani wagon. So I voted the wagon with the least scum on it (since I didn't have much of a case on either ani or SSBF and by that time one of the two were going to be lynched no matter what).

[Nachomamma8]

Magua:
Very, very fluid reads. No scum or town read he has is really explained in depth, and they tend to change pretty often. Like from his ISO #2 to ISO #4; he goes from calling Xite scum to town. Between his first reads list and second reads list, the only consistency is CSL being scum. He plays under-the-radar pretty much the entire time he plays; no significant opinions, no real aggression towards anyone, nothing.

Also, interesting quote:

Chronopie: I started in on this because of Amished's repeated postings that Chronopie was scum. I've come to agree. Not enough to take my vote off of Charlie, but several good cases against Chronopie have been made. Addendum edit: Chronopie also blatantly fishes in #878.

Setting up Amish to gain towncred on the Chrono lynch.

Next, look at this esurio quote!

Chronopie - lol active lurkers. Rhinox nailed this guy in his iso read. Don't like the "intent-to-hammer SV" post, it just reads to me like "hey look, I'm not lurking! Here, let me announce my intent to hammer a townie." e_e

Looks familiar. Hmmm...

Esurio is scummy for tunneling on Plum, then becoming completely useless after Plum's lynch, as well as a few miscellaneous things (see: Batt reasoning).

[Locke Lamora]

I was thinking that when reading over Magua this morning. He mentions Chrono a few times, calling him useless or scummy without ever really putting pressure on him.

Holy: if there are two scum, who do you think they are? Same goes for three.

[holycon]

batt and esurio and if theres three nacho

[Battousai]

Nacho- I know you are reading ISO's for scumminess, but could you respond to my response?

Holy- Why me and esurio? Is it a combination of us or both individually? Any type of case you would like to submit?

[holycon]

on you and esurio is more of just it seem you two are pointing fingers at everyone BUT each other mostly just a feeling i have

[holycon]

and no there isnt a case i would like to submit i dont have the time to make one