Open 260 - Tit For Tat - Game Over

[lewarcher82]

bah...

go town!

[Gonzoooo]

Vig should claim today I'm thinking.

[ThAdmiral]

From the player list, the remaining players are:

vollkan (replacing chesskid3 (who replaced Powerrox93))
don_johnson
Purple Orange (replacing Consigliere)
Gonzoooo
ThAdmiral (replacing xenophon)
implosion

Basically we have to lynch or vig right to stay in it (or both obv).
I wouldn't be against a mass claim, popcorn style. I would suggest implosion first.

[Gonzoooo]

Oh there are six alive, not five. Maybe we shouldn't claim then. NL without claiming is another option. If we go that route, we shouldn't really talk at all today. I can see the pros of both, but it kind of depends on who is who.

I would like dj's opinion.

[vollkan]

Oh there are six alive, not five. Maybe we shouldn't claim then. NL without claiming is another option. If we go that route, we shouldn't really talk at all today. I can see the pros of both, but it kind of depends on who is who.

It's effectively MYLO, so No Lynch is probably the optimal course of action.

Vote: No Lynch

Also,
@Thad: Why do you not want No Lynch?
@Gonzoo: What pros do you see in lynching?

[Gonzoooo]

@Gonzoo: What pros do you see in lynching?

Prevents scum from getting a free shot at the vig. If the vig were to claim today, we auto eliminate someone from the suspect pool. That or scum try to counter and die.

Obviously vig surviving the night is slightly better, but it makes counterclaiming easier and then we lose if we lynch wrong. So, it's kind of a toss up as to which situation has a better chance of hitting scum.

[Gonzoooo]

Oh wait. I forgot about the other part of the setup. NO MORE TALKING. Everyone vote No Lynch in their next post. Continued talking is scummy.

Vote: No Lynch

[ThAdmiral]

Hold on a sec.

If I'm thinking this through right if we claim then there will be 2 roles out and we will be lynching + vigging out of a pool of 4. Since there is 2 scum in that group of 4 it is a 50-50 lynch, based purely on statistics alone, and if we mislynch the vig has a 2/3 chance of hitting scum to let town survive. Also in that situation the jk will have a 2/3 shot of stopping scum from killing, although that is moot if the vig misses.
Those are pretty damn good odds. I think claim and then lynch is the way to go.

[ThAdmiral]

Otherwise the following could happen:
Vig shoots - chooses out of 5. So 2/5 chance. Jk also chooses and has a 2/5 chance of stopping the scum kill but also a 2/5 chance of stopping the vig kill.
If vig misses and jk misses we lose.
If vig hits we live but given that scum have a rolecop there is a high chance they will hit a power role so tomorrow we would be 4 players left with one scum. With 1 claim we would lynch out of a pool of 3 so a 1/3 shot. If the vig survived he would then have a 1/2 shot of hitting scum, if jk survived he would similarly have a 1/2 chance of stopping scum.

[ThAdmiral]

Vig doesn't shoot. Scum probably will kill a power-role in which case tomorrow would be 5 alive, 1 claim, lynch chance of 1-in-4. Mislynch = auto loss.
If scum don't kill a power role we will be 5 alive, 2 claims, lynch of 2/3. Once again though mislynch = auto loss.

[Gonzoooo]

It really comes down to if we think the scum copped a PR by now.

Actually, even if they didn't maybe Thad is right. Say they copped a Vanilla last night that is still alive and we NL.

Scum have 2/3 chance hitting a PR tonight.
Then it's 3/2 and scum have a chance to CC during mass claim if they choose. That would make it 50/50. If they don't CC, then it's 1/4.

Unvote

Yeah, I think ThAd might be correct about the odds.

[ThAdmiral]

In that last one I forgot that the jk would have a 2/5 chance of blocking the scum kill. But all that would achieve is put us back in the same situation tomorrow...

[Gonzoooo]

I'm ok with implosion claiming first. I also wouldn't mind vollkan claiming early on too.

[don_johnson]

i say we just lynch implosion. claim tomorrow. smash flipped jk. which means scum was more likely than not split(one off, one on). myk looked like hella likely scum, the fact that he's flipped town means either thad or implosion are most likely scum. tbh, most likely scum on the wagon is volkan. his smash vote is text book bus. drop it on early in the day and let it ride. the rest of us were actively scumhunting til the end of the day. implosion, well, he's just scummy for all the reasons pointed out yesterday plus the fact that he basically dissappeared. thad, on the other hand has produced(like volkan) a town read. however, it is difficult to determine whether thad is actually scumhunting(much like volkan). both players seem to be stressing "theory" and "statistics" over "hey, who's most likely scum."

i am comfortable lynching today, but its going to be out of that pool:

thad
implo
volkan.

edit: i agree with gonzo.

[Gonzoooo]

Glad we made up, dj. Let's crush some scumskulls today. We should def. claim today unless you disagree with ThAd's numbers though.

[don_johnson]

thats fine. claim order:

implo
volkan
thad
PO
gonzo
dj

work for you?

[Gonzoooo]

I'm probably fine with that.

[don_johnson]

implosion: your presence is requested in the center of town. stand before us and tell us your role. now.

[ThAdmiral]

I would prefer

Implo
Gonzo
Volkan
Po
Thad
Dj

[ThAdmiral]

But we both agree implo first

[don_johnson]

yes. why gonzo second?

[implosion]

Sorry. I haven't "disappeared." I just got home and ate dinner.

VT.

d_j's order is better IMO. vollkan and ThAd are both scummier than Gonzoooo.

[Gonzoooo]

vollkan, go.

[ThAdmiral]

yes. why gonzo second?

I had a reason but I Just realised it was invalid. I'm okay with your order.

[vollkan]

Don't have time to make a long post - but

Claim: Vanilla