Consulmaker II: the Pyrrhic War - Game over.

[Nathanael]

P a r a m a . I s . S c u m !

Vote Feysal

. much better option. I just hope some people stay on the ribwich wagon and keep him tribune.

[Nathanael]

Is Mert still in this game? did I miss him being replaced?
What about Leon Belmont?

Mod, can we get some prods?

[SensFan]

I still don't get why you would want anyone to be both Consulmaker and Tribune, let alone someone who veto'd the Jack execution yesterday.

[Magua]

I've never, ever, ever expressed anything resembling distaste for that slot promise.

One last try. Answer the question.

You have not asked me a question. The closest you come is:

There better be words to accompany all three of these because one for three in that slot isn't good odds.

That's not even a demand (like scotmany did, and to which I responded in #832 viewtopic.php?f=3&t=15678&start=825).

But, mostly, I'm just responding to you the same way you respond me. You don't want to play nice with my questions (such as why you would care what I right if you're already disregarding it), then I am not motivated to play nice with yours.

[SensFan]

I suggest you go back and re-read the Sens/chess parts of D1, Magua. You might learn a lesson from his behaviour: don't go out of your way to antagonise the Consul for no reason.

[Nathanael]

I still don't get why you would want anyone to be both Consulmaker and Tribune, let alone someone who veto'd the Jack execution yesterday.

because:
a) he is town
b) HE IS TOWN
c) he made a great move saving a probable townie and lynching scum (yes, it wasn't him directly, but it was the outcome of his action)
d)

H E . I S . T O W N

e) oh, and did I already mention that he is town?

why do you guys all want to lynch Jack?
He is quite probably town.

[SensFan]

a, b, d, e are NOT good reasons. Just because someone is Town does not mean I feel like gambling the game on them not having a single false townread. As for wanting to lynch Jack, it's based on the fact he agreed to be lynched over and over and over if he got busted. And guess what? He got busted. And when he got busted, his first try was a terrible lie as opposed to coming clean.

Seriously, I don't get it. Why the hell are you people not willing to see him hang? His lie dominated D1, added absolutely nothing to anything until he's confirmed Town, and forced the Consulmaker to pick D2 Consuls from a randomized list of half the people. What in the name of Bahamut has he done to make people think he shouldn't be lynched?

[Flameaxe]

The Fonz replaces Mert. Leon was prodded. Carry on.

[The Fonz]

Hey guys, it's past midnight here, but I'm going to give you half an hour and then post what I've got after that.

[SpyreX]

Seriously, I don't get it. Why the hell are you people not willing to see him hang? His lie dominated D1, added absolutely nothing to anything until he's confirmed Town, and forced the Consulmaker to pick D2 Consuls from a randomized list of half the people. What in the name of Bahamut has he done to make people think he shouldn't be lynched?

See, I've been going through this myself.

HE hasn't done anything that makes me feel better. But, with dram AND reck being scum I don't see the connection there. I could be missing something that would make me nuke him with supreme prejudice BUT I'm hesistant due to that.

Then, on the flipside, you've got this garbage I'm dealing with until the doomclock turnith. Because it takes a lot of stones to go "Ohh gee I don't see the question implied in asking for rationales for my 'reads' even though it was PRETTY CLEAR EVERY STEP OF THE WAY I knew what you wanted"

[SensFan]

I have the solution: Flip a coin! Heads, Magua swings; Tails, Jack.

Alternatively, Spy, answer me this. Imagine it's LyLo a few days from now, and you're the Dictator. Jack is still alive. Are you really telling me there's any chance in the world Jack doesn't get lynched? I mean, seriously, there's no way in hell ScumJack can be given any chance to possibly win the game for his side. I'd also point out that all of his claimed 'gains' from his supposed dumbass gambit revolve around the fact that he's lying Town; why oh why are we not seeing if it's worth our time to look at his suspects?

[SpyreX]

(I'm hoping to finish before it gets to that point)

But, you're right.

Actually, since I'm multitasking and can't look back - was it Dram that tried to kill Jack starting that chain of events?

[scotmany12]

Dram did try to kill jack.

I too do not see why people would want to let jack live. There is too much risk in letting him survive. And I don't know why anyone would think he would be town after how long he dragged on his facade.

[SensFan]

Execute: Jack

I wanna kill Reeeeeeeeeeck ;_;

Link.

[SpyreX]

I guess I need to really mull it because would Dram throw double busses? Because no way in hell ever is Jack an SK.

Two scumteams?

What am I missing? Help me Sens

[The Fonz]

Here's my as-we-go thoughts about the first fifth of the game.

Yah, it took me a lot longer than I thought.

So Jack's consulmaker, good to have a decent scumhunter as confirmed town, even though I expect he won't last long.

Primate's ideas about tribunes are basically on the mark. Ideally, I think what you want is players who are opinionated. Those likely to agonise over the decision if town.

Jack upsets me with his criticism of AV Mafia.

Sorry, wtf, a consulmaker counterclaim? So one of them lying, and I can surmise from the first post that it's Jack. I'm going to assume this is uncontroversial, someone let me know if there's any reason not to invoke Lynch All Liars here, though I can't say I can imagine what it would be. - - - Jack.

chesskid, as a newer player and self-described VI, might be excused the self-trib vote. Lowell is not, unless he's completely failed to improve at all in the time since I last played with him (I can't remember when this was, but it was at least a year ago). Guys, the trib vote is a useful source of information. Self-voting negates this, and is also pointless (since Tasky/Nate is in this game, he'll understand the Kantian argument on this). - Lowell

I think they are both probably town, and more that we try to figure out which one of the two is actually the consulmaker we help the scum. A gambit was run for cover, let's use it whilst we still have some ambiguity there.

This is both utter bullshit, and also what I would expect from Primate as town. In my first ever game as scum, Primate was town and fakeclaimed cop to open, so I'm not surprised he's soft on this, but I would like to know what possible protown benefit there is here? I mean, I know Jack's unconventional, but seriously. Probably still + primate though, for consistency with previously-stated beliefs.

I really see no reason why we should not execute one of {Jack, ribwich}. As none of them took their claim back, it is clear that one of them has to be scum.
Since lynching the consulmaker is in no way worse than lynching a VT, we basically have a 50% chance of hitting scum without any drawback. you will never get such a high

a priori

(that is, without relying on scum/town-tells) percentage elsewhere.

You see, it's decent analysis like this in your previous games that made me so convinced your 'I'm a moron' thing in txt was an act. Yes, I'm still bitter. + Nate

Sens' stance makes sense. Wait a day.

I just think it's such a stupid scum play that it has to be town poorly planned town gambit.

That works equally well in reverse. It's such stupid town play that it makes more sense to be a scum gambit, relying on people making this exact argument. Or the GF gambit.

Primate thinking its a gambit is indeed par for the course. Unless I'm misremembering, he fakeclaimed CopGuilty D1 of the first Mini Normal I modded, just for reactions.

Same game I remembered. + Sens for townish use of meta.

In my defense that actually worked out ok and there was only post between me saying it and explicitly saying I was lying. That said, it was still a bad play in the MS environment, and I wouldn't do it again.

It worked out ok if you discount the fact that the premature townie claim it elicited from undo allowed us to identify you for sure as the doc by the third night.

Tonight, if Jack is Consulmaker, he makes ribwhich and someone he thinks is Town the Consuls. If ribwhich is Consulmaker, he targets Jack and someone he thinks is Town. D3, we execute whoever of Jack/ribwhich turns up as Consul tomorrow.

Baaaaad move. THough probably alignment-neutral (good plans tend to be town indicators, but bad ones are neutral, since scum won't knowingly propose plans they know are obviously flawed).

Best-case scenario, the other Consul is Town and we force the Scum to lynch on our terms, or else No Lynch.

If Jack's scum, in that scenario he probably forces through a no-lynch regardless, forcing town to wait a day.

Primate's modification however is a good plan, + Pri.

Just throwing this out there, but we have a limited supply of Roman Citizens, presumably. We can't afford to let the Scum know who the Consulmaker is, if and when the current one dies.

Disagree. There's a limited number of Senators, but if the scum want to kill their way through the VTs to try and get rid of all of them, while leaving the PRs intact, be my f'in guest.

chesskid so far has only been dropping bad player tells, but this of course means he hasn't actually done anything protown either.

98 is much better, however.

102: Rudeness is townish. + Chess


110 is superficially appealing, but reduces the amount of info available to town. The tribunal vote is the one thing the democracy directly chooses. Small - rabies/feysal.

What sens said.

ANYWHO, if the liars wont admit to lying then scum be in there. (The why I dont understand, but).

There's scum in there anyway, but if you're willing to assume a stupid town gambit, why wouldn't you assume a willingness to run with it?

Nate's plan is good, + Nate.

Oh God, a Tasky OMGUS argument. I can see where this is going to go.


Rabies 130: Where did chesskid say it was a scumtell?

136 is a massive + Nate. Mind you, if he can fake an MD post, he can fake this.

Uh yeah, in case we needed any more, Jack 147 is scummy. For one primate didn't say anything about whether it was 'genuine' and secondly, trying to start arguments is pretty obviously protown.

LOL Mert (aka me) 154 is just bizarre.

Primate's been really about as townie as you can be at this point, but the constant self-deprecating shtick makes me wary. As if he's trying to downplay expectations about the quality of his own scumhunting.

[Magua]

I still don't get why you would want anyone to be both Consulmaker and Tribune, let alone someone who veto'd the Jack execution yesterday.

I suggest you go back and re-read the Sens/chess parts of D1, Magua. You might learn a lesson from his behaviour: don't go out of your way to antagonise the Consul for no reason.

The first one I translate is "Why would you want confirmed town to be Tribune?" with the unstated add-on of "even though they executed scum yesterday".

The second I translate as "Don't piss off a consul, or they may execute you instead of executing scum," because, Lord knows, only scum would ever dare to piss off a consul.

Your entire take, Sens, seems to be "Jack annoys me, and I want to see him executed, even though every logical connection has him not being scum with dramonic and reckoner." To this, you add, "Oh, and I also want to see Magua executed, because he's annoying a consul, and seriously, you people should know better."

You don't want ribwich a tribune because even though he's confirmed, he might have a false townread. Instead, you'll trust that *your* townread is accurate, which, of course, it might not be, and then that your townread's townread is accurate, and you think that this is better? Because it doesn't seem so to me.

[SensFan]

You don't want ribwich a tribune because even though he's confirmed, he might have a false townread. Instead, you'll trust that *your* townread is accurate, which, of course, it might not be, and then that your townread's townread is accurate, and you think that this is better? Because it doesn't seem so to me.

Please try again.

It's clear as day why there's a vast difference in the importance of my townreads (as someone voting for a Tribune), and the importance of the townreads of someone who picks the Consuls and also has Power of Veto.

---

I'll respond to the rest of your post sometime tomorrow, if I feel like it. Probably not; most of it could be solved if you started thinking. Such as why its not a good idea to purposefully antagonize a Consul...

[ribwich]

I guess I need to really mull it because would Dram throw double busses? Because no way in hell ever is Jack an SK.

Two scumteams?

What am I missing? Help me Sens

Two scumteams would actually make a lot of sense. That would explain Jack's gambit a hell of a lot better than him being town or on the only scumteam does. His scumteam gets info on who's on the other team, and he sacrifices himself for the sake of disrupting town discussion and getting attention away from his own side.

[SpyreX]

What info does it pull out besides the actual consulmaker in a 2 setup?

I'm not sure if 2 makes more sense but I sure don't believe that was a town shot even if it was victorious.

On the plus/minus side if its 2 scumteams dram/reck has AT MOST 2 left but probably just 1.

[Nathanael]

Execute: Jack

I wanna kill Reeeeeeeeeeck ;_;

=> dram & Jack are not in the same scum-faction. This is the classical scum play: vote (in this case execute) a townie, FoS (in this case "I wana kill Reck") a scumbuddy. No way this is a double bus.

This means that if Jack is scum, he is in a potential second scumgroup.
This however means he has less than average chance of being actually scum (assuming two X-person scumteams with X>2 which is highly likely if we really have two scumteams)

But:
This game is called

Pyrrhic

War and the scum we caught so far were

pyrrhic

goons.
Why would one scumgroup be so significantly more important than the other?
=> 2 scumteams HIGHLY unlikely, we might have a SK, however.
=> Jack lynch is bad until we think it is time to SK-hunt.
Jack's play didn't seem to do much damage, imo. I would call him null on play. If you have some reason for him to be suspect BESIDES his gambit, come forward.

Alternatively, Spy, answer me this. Imagine it's LyLo a few days from now, and you're the Dictator. Jack is still alive. Are you really telling me there's any chance in the world Jack doesn't get lynched?

I mean, seriously, there's no way in hell ScumJack can be given any chance to possibly win the game for his side.

I'd also point out that all of his claimed 'gains' from his supposed dumbass gambit revolve around the fact that he's lying Town; why oh why are we not seeing if it's worth our time to look at his suspects?

Now this is serious BS.
1. Jack isn't in any way more likely to be scum than random.
2. The bolded part is terrible: Just because you don't want Jack to get away with it IF he is scum, this does in no way imply he is more likely to be scum.
Assume player X was scum in game 1 and fooled player Y. Now Y in game 2 says "I don't want X to get away with it a second time if he is scum this time, VOTE: X"
It's the same thing. And it is crap.
3. Lying town DOES exist.
4. Do you have any other reason you want Jack dead? did you see anything scummy in his play?

I too do not see why people would want to let jack live. There i

s too much risk in letting him survive

. And I don't know why anyone would think he would be town after how long he dragged on his facade.

What risk do you see exactly?

____________________

Coming back to the ribwich Tribune&Consulmaker issue:
Assume ribwich get's tribune power. He will either:
a) Work against the general town will or (value: X for town)
b) follow the town will (value: Y for town)
he will however, since he is town, do the one which is best. we therefore get V=max{X,Y}.

Assume we handle the tribune power to someone and assume they have a random chance of being scum, let's say 33%
1) Now, if that person indeed is scum, they can do two things:
a) act in their interest and against the town (value: Z for town, note that in Z there is also the benefit of potentially catching scum if they do something obviously bad)
b) follow the town's will (value: Y for town)
since however it's a scum that chooses, he will choose the worst of the two. V=min{Z,Y}
2) we handle the power to a random townie, who however knows that he is not confirmed to us
a) work against the general town will (value: X for town)
b) follow the town will (value: Y for town)
Now, however, his unconfirmed status makes it much more difficult for them to make decision X, because they risk to get attacked
Let's say he chooses Y with probability at least 1/2.
Therefore we get:
V=1/3*min{Z,Y}+2/3(1/2*Y+1/2*max{X,Y})=1/3*min{Z,Y}+1/3(Y+max{X,Y})

now 1/3*min{Z,Y}+1/3(Y+max{X,Y}) is definitely smaller than max{X,Y}.
This is also conditioned by the fact that group decisions tend in general to be worse than individual good-willed decisions (reference) => X is likely higher than Y
Note that the fact that ribwich is also consulmaker is completely irrelevant.

a, b, d, e are NOT good reasons. Just because someone is Town does not mean I feel like gambling the game on them not having a single false townread. As for wanting to lynch Jack, it's based on the fact he agreed to be lynched over and over and over if he got busted. And guess what? He got busted. And when he got busted, his first try was a terrible lie as opposed to coming clean.

the game is in no way "gambled over on a single townread". There is very likely more than two scum left, so even if a townread is wrong, we still have 2 more scums to hunt.
BTW, I believe that ribwich is reasonable enough to listen to arguments.

_________________________

To conclude some questions:

@Magua:

Who do you think is more likely scum, Porochaz or Leon Belmont?

@Parama:

Who do you think is more likely scum, scotmany or SpyreX?

@Lowell:

Who do you think is more likely town, Feysal or Primate?

[SensFan]

Coming back to the ribwich Tribune&Consulmaker issue:
Assume ribwich get's tribune power. He will either:
a) Work against the general town will or (value: X for town)
b) follow the town will (value: Y for town)
he will however, since he is town, do the one which is best. we therefore get V=max{X,Y}.

WRONG. Town != Right.

[Nathanael]

Coming back to the ribwich Tribune&Consulmaker issue:
Assume ribwich get's tribune power. He will either:
a) Work against the general town will or (value: X for town)
b) follow the town will (value: Y for town)
he will however, since he is town, do the one which is best. we therefore get V=max{X,Y}.

WRONG. Town != Right.

So you think town as whole is more likely to be right than a single townie?

[Nathanael]

since Tasky/Nate is in this game, he'll understand the Kantian argument on this)

lol

I really see no reason why we should not execute one of {Jack, ribwich}. As none of them took their claim back, it is clear that one of them has to be scum.
Since lynching the consulmaker is in no way worse than lynching a VT, we basically have a 50% chance of hitting scum without any drawback. you will never get such a high

a priori

(that is, without relying on scum/town-tells) percentage elsewhere.

You see, it's decent analysis like this in your previous games that made me so convinced your 'I'm a moron' thing in txt was an act. Yes, I'm still bitter. + Nate

Sens' stance makes sense. Wait a day.

why do I get town points for a "decent analysis" which turned out to be completely wrong, while SensFan made a post that "makes sense" and turned out to be the right play at the time (even if he is wrong right now) and doesn't get a +?

I just think it's such a stupid scum play that it has to be town poorly planned town gambit.

That works equally well in reverse. It's such stupid town play that it makes more sense to be a scum gambit, relying on people making this exact argument. Or the GF gambit.

excuse my ignorance, what do you mean by GF gambit?

chesskid so far has only been dropping bad player tells, but this of course means he hasn't actually done anything protown either.

do you have something specific you would attribute more to a bad player than to scum?

98 is much better, however.

what about that post did you like?

110 is superficially appealing, but reduces the amount of info available to town. The tribunal vote is the one thing the democracy directly chooses. Small - rabies/feysal.

if he is scum, do you think he proposed something you called anti-town on purpose?
doesn't this - (minus) contradict your previous statement about alignment-neutral "bad plans"?

LOL Mert (aka me) 154 is just bizarre.

would you have found this post scummy if it weren't your predecessor?


I'm waiting for more, TF. overall I like your posting.
A question, who do you think is more likely scum: Parama or scotmany?

[The Fonz]

Nate, if you don't mind, I see your questions but I'll get completely caught up before I answer them.