Blackest Night Mafia (GAME OVER!)

[Kdub]

1) Did you get the color you asked for?

2) You can N0 Vig anybody on the playerlist. Do you use your power? If so, who do you target?

3) If you knew you wouldn't be caught, would you cheat to win at a game where the only thing at stake was your reputation (e.g., if you win people think you are good at the game, if you lose people think you are not)?

4) You are playing a $100 game of ultimatum. In this game, the first player proposes how to divide the $100 between the two players, and the second player can either accept or reject this proposal. If the second player rejects, neither player receives anything. If the second player accepts, the money is split according to the proposal. You are the first player - how do you split the piles?

5) The same as question four, except now the game is being played with $1,000,000. How do you divide the money?

1. One of them, yes.
2. No, I've had pretty good experiences with the playerlist.
3. No.
4. It would depend on who the second person was, but probably something like 90/10 for most people.
5. Depends on the person, but I'm thinking something around 990k/10k for most people.

Random deaths help Town.

How so? A game that starts on N0 is likely balanced to account for a random death.

VOTE: xvart

[Kdub]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: SpyreX

Town should not be volunteering their color choices without good reason. Doing so helps scum since the mods said almost everyone would get one of their choices, and the scum are better informed to work out who might be what color.

Umm, what?

You did read the first posts where Mod says the following, right?

You mean there couldn't be more than one SK? Ohhh perish the thought.

Unless you're saying someone would be foisted it without picking it that uhhh what means nothing.

The point is that you saying that you could throw out the tidbit that there is an SK in the game is not a good reason at all because the mods have already confirmed that there is an SK in the game.

[Kdub]

Town should not be volunteering their color choices without good reason. Doing so helps scum since the mods said almost everyone would get one of their choices, and the scum are better informed to work out who might be what color.

The mods also said that not everyone would be getting one of their choices and that mod preference has a part in who got what roles.

Even if true, this does not contradict "

almost

everyone

probably

will get one of their two choices".

[Kdub]

Vi:
What is your opinion so far of the following players: Katsuki, nopoint, Starbuck? No, this is not a random list.

Magna & Fate:
It should be pretty easy to think of realistic scenarios where knowing colors can help scum. For example, what if colors are related to abilities? What if scum/SK win conditions involve something with the colors?

Also why so up in arms over Spyrex ‘outting’ colors when Andrius directly claimed either Violet or Indigo in his posts?

I actually missed where Andrius claimed his color choice when I read that post initially, but you are correct, I don't think he (or SensFan in recent pages) should have done that either.

I admit that my SpyreX vote is more of "he's being unhelpful/anti-town" rather than "he's being scummy" at this point. He hasn't done anything since then to make my change that opinion though.

Despite his poorly-reasoned (or rather, non-reasoned) vote, Andrius is likely town for bringing up the rings. No reason for scum to do that. Andrius, how about going with your own thoughts and not just following Fate because he told you to?

The continued harping on the role assignment thing by SensFan, as well as the contradiction pointed out by AGM, is starting to bug me.

Colour speculation is pointless, since the colours people submitted don't appear to be more than a minor connection to their role, if any, based on my role. Speculation about who the Mods may have favoured (which I have no idea about) will be fruitful, as per how I explained it. It's really not all that complicated.

Your role =/= everyone else's role, so you don't know how color may or may not be related in general, nor do you know whether any mod-preference in the role assignment (if there was any at all) extended beyond yourself since you made the point that the mods were upset with you specifically. The reason it's contradictory is that in both cases, you are speculating about the setup based on your role alone, yet you are calling one of them pointless and the other one fruitful.

Anyway, the real point is that you are really going out of your way to emphasize how unhappy you are with your role. If you are town, this is bad because you are giving away hints about your role. I'm conflicted over whether this is scummy or not, since it could conceivably be a gambit to get opposing scum to ignore you, but could also draw investigations/vigs. IGMEOY for now.

Plum:
Disagree with the part of your tans case that is based on his Andrius vote. It's plausible to me that he could have a read on someone, vote them, then start to question his reasons without removing his vote immediately. I do, however, agree that this is very strange:

The way you used the word 'frame' in your sentence to me struck a cord, hence why I asked you to give your definition of it. Usually when I think of framing someone I think of trying to make someone look guilty that you know is innocent which is why I asked you to define the word because there is no way I could know he is innocent (read: town) and I thought that only one group of people would know he was town, that being mafia, then I realized that the two scum groups most likely do not know who each other is. Though if you are scum then you would know the alignment of everyone save about 16% of the people in the gave (assuming 4/4/4/4/4/1 split)

Well duh, the scum groups don't know who each other is. It's unusual that you didn't assume/realize this immediately. It comes across as either extreme-VI (I don't have a ton of knowledge of tans' play in general, maybe others might know him better), or a poor excuse.

[Kdub]

You stated in a matter of fact tone that the scum groups don't know who each other are, I was hypothesizing about the possible setup. The key here for my reasoning of switching to you is that you are coming across that you know for a fact the scum teams do not know each other - which if you were town you would not know; you could only surmise.

The scum teams not knowing who is in the other scum team is a reasonable assumption that a player with any amount of experience on this site will make. Seriously, point me to the last (or any, for that matter) game on this site where a scum group

knows at the start of the game

who the other scum team is. Also explain how that could be a balanced game in any way, shape, or form.

That you would vote me for this ridiculous reason just looks like you are following the biggest wagon and had to throw on some excuse to justify it.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: tanstalas

Katsuki - No idea. Somehow not as annoying as ecksReck's whining, but only barely.
npiau - He's trolling the thread. I've seen him play as Town before and he did quite the opposite, but I don't know if what he's doing is alignment-relevant.
Starbuck - I played with her before. As a Neutral party she basically fluffposted the entire 100+page game, from what I recall. That she's doing it again here doesn't particularly surprise me. Someone who knows her meta better than I do can tell me if she does that as Town as well.

You initially voted me for lack of content based on three posts that happened within the first 24 hours of the game. My first thought was, "whatever, it's early in the game and it's probably as much for Vi to go on as he could possibly have at this stage". But your continued pushing on my wagon after that, even though I wasn't around and didn't post for a little bit after my third post, had me wondering why you decided to single me out for that reason. I picked a group of players and asked your opinion of them because at the time, I feel like they had contributed about as much (or less) content as I had, yet you were completely silent on them. Your stated opinions of them seem fairly neutral/non-committal, which is in contrast to your opinion of me. Tell me how those players had contributed more content in your opinion, because your reads do not look consistent.

Also, what changed between this:

Vote stays on SensFan because, again, there's no reason to whine this much if you got the alignment you wanted but not the colors. Do I think he would complain this much as scum for being scum? I'm fairly sure there's precedent.

and this:

That's actually interesting information if true. It likely means that too many people requested scum.

That's what I wanted to know.
Unvote: SensFan
Vote: Kdub (L-12)

You added the qualifier "if true", but gave no reason why you thought it was true despite implying that Sens was scum in your previous post.

[Kdub]

Vi, you didn't address my concern. I know that you think my first three posts lacked content. I am asking why you singled me out over other players who you claim to have mostly neutral/no reads on who I think contributed less at that point. In particular, explain why those players posted more content, in your opinion.

I expected ScumFan to be complaining about being scum. I got the opposite of what I expected. I'm p r e t t y sure I said this already.

What? Regardless of his alignment, did you expect him to say that the mods gave him anything other than a town role?

[Kdub]

Special Rules:
1. You know that Violet, Green, Blue, and Indigo are all part of the good faction.

You know that Red, Orange, and Yellow are all different evil factions.

You also know that there is only one Orange Lantern.

Try again, tans.

That's scummier (read: that's something scum are more likely to do) than not producing any at all.

Don't really agree, but if this is the source of your issue with me, I'm not sure I can say anything that will change your mind.

Given that this is SensFan and he's upset with his role, I'm fairly positive there's precedent.

I guess I don't know what precedent you are referring to. Has he ruined games in the past by claiming scum?

[Kdub]

tans, what do you not understand about "different evil factions"? When you voted for me, the "how does Kdub know that the scum don't know who each other are" argument was the only stated reason you gave. Now that I have pointed out that the rules clearly show that you are wrong, you are continuing to insist that I am not reading your argument properly. Here's a challenge for you: find anybody else in the game who has read special rule #1 and agrees that your "single scum team, two colors" idea is a possibility, because that was the entire basis for what you claimed was a "slip" by me.

Guderian:
The recent exchange between me and tans should be sufficient to show why I think his reason for voting me is crap he made up to justify wagoning me. I'm not particularly liking how you are trying to frame me vs. tans as "one or both of them are scum" and then sitting back and encouraging us to keep fighting. It strikes me as a very "safe" position for you to take because 1) you know you will have some support since we are already the two vote leaders, and 2) regardless of what one of us flips in the event of a lynch, it becomes easy for you to switch to the other and continue to call them scum.

My meta on Reck tells me he is probably town based on past experience. Who knows what's going on with Fate, I can never figure him out. Katsuki's play, however, is bizarre because it's completely different from what I've seen of both her town and scum play. Kat, do you really think posting in Reck/Fate-style is beneficial to achieving your win con, or are you just doing it for amusement? If it's the latter, then stop and start playing for real please.

[Kdub]

I'm against a color claim right now. On future days, we can revisit the idea if we think it might be beneficial then. Right now, too many unknowns, and I doubt things would work out as smoothly as dram put it in his "pros" scenario.

tans:
No I did not know about that post by dana. Doesn't change anything though, the rules already made it clear that there are two different scum factions.

Speaking of zero offense... would anyone mind terribly if I day vig'd Dekes, the useless pile of slug dung?

That would be dumb, do you have any reason to think he is not town? The best use of a day vig would be to save it for whoever we decide to lynch. Assuming that doesn't end the day, it gives us effectively two lynches today.

But did you just insinuate you even have the possibility of not flipping town?

Huge reach here. I know I will flip town (can't say the same for tans), but the whole point I was trying to make was that my/his flip wouldn't matter whatever it was, you had set yourself up to push a case on the other one of us in any scenario.

Hey Sens, if you're finished being upset about your role, what is your opinion of me/tans or anybody else in the game for that matter?

The case on Reck is stupid, of course scum will have safeclaims in a game this size and with the given flavor. And how is his conditional reads based on Sens scummy? The Reck=SK theory is possible since D1 SK play looks similar to town play, but we'll deal with that later on if that's the case. xvart's play seems OK otherwise, but nopoint's vote is pretty much a sheep vote.

[Kdub]

Vi, I stated earlier that Reck's play is more similar to what I know of his town-play than his scum-play.

My limited experience with tans in the past is that he was town in Castlevania Mafia (which I co-modded with Magna), and his play was competent in that game. That is in stark contrast to his play so far in this game. Does anyone have scum-meta on him?

Will have more to post later when I have time.

[Kdub]

So hold on. Tans voted Kdub for stating that the scum factions aren't unified . . . and Kdub voted Tans for using that as an excuse to hop on his wagon? Well, both are horrid, but. Problem is, it looks like Tans may have actually believed that the scumteam setup could've worked like that, and thoroughly, which really calls into question the theory that he is, in fact, scum, but I need to figure out where he started saying this, and time. Not have right this second.

Hang on, your original argument against tans had nothing to do with his vote on me, and in fact came before that was even made. So if you think his reasoning for his vote on me could be genuine, why does that call into question him being scum when that wasn't even a reason you were voting him in the first place?

[Kdub]

Plum, explain the distinction between "town" and "isn't on a scumteam". For that matter, explain the distinction between "scumminess" and "plausibility of him being scum", because I'm not seeing your logic there.

Unfortunately I have to run and won't be able to continue this discussion until later tonight.

[Kdub]

Plum:

So hold on. Tans voted Kdub for stating that the scum factions aren't unified . . . and Kdub voted Tans for using that as an excuse to hop on his wagon? Well, both are horrid, but. Problem is, it looks like Tans may have actually believed that the scumteam setup could've worked like that, and thoroughly,

which really calls into question the theory that he is, in fact, scum

, but I need to figure out where he started saying this, and time. Not have right this second.

The bolded part clearly is implying that tans' belief about the single scumteam is making you question whether he is scum. This is in line with earlier in the same post where you said:

You have meta/reason to belive scummeh Tans is somewhere in the range of par for the course? I'm interested over here. That said, I'm now debating the relative merits of Tans appearing as though he doesn't understand some basic setup structures going on that a scumbag would probably take for granted.

Again, the intent is clear.

Anyway...

The question I ask isn't 'Is Tans being sincere in his vote, because if so that's a Townie thing and he may not be scum'. The question I ask is 'Did Tans really think Red/Yellow could've been one team, and if so,

a scumbag would know they weren't and would probably be less likely to say it/would bring it up within a certain set of specific ways, which Tans may or may not have been in

'.

The key here isn't the difference between "is tans sincere" or "did tans really think there could be one team". What I'm focusing on is the "he may not be scum" versus "scum are less likely to say it". To me, both of those statements are implying the same thing: that you are questioning the idea that tans is scum. There may be a distinction between them in the literal sense, which you are trying to emphasize, but they both have the same implication from a scumhunting standpoint.

Do you see the problem here? Here's my take:

Plum: tans is scum for reasons X and Y.
Kdub: I don't really agree with X, but I agree with Y.
tans: Kdub is scum for reason gfwmgewnmocassawefokmgwfewqlkfewmffmfkewmlfmwkemflkwmflew Vote: Kdub
Kdub: That's a ridiculous reason. Vote: tans.
Plum: Both votes are horrible, but tans might actually believe his reasoning, which means he might not be scum.
Kdub: That has nothing to do with your original reasons X and Y, why is that making you question your read?
Plum: It's not that he may be town, it's that he may not be scum.
Kdub: Huh?

This looks like you want to start backing off of tans and are using the "he might actually believe his crazy theory" argument as an excuse to do so. The tone of post 411 is very much one of "I'm less sure of tans-scum now" despite the fact that nothing about your original argument about tans being scum was addressed.

FoS: Plum

---

Katsuki:
For someone who keeps calling me scum, you haven't presented a single reason or case. When Reck does it, it's annoying, but he's demonstrated success catching scum while playing this way before. You do not get the same benefit of the doubt just because you start playing like him. I want reasoning for all your scum reads now.

---

Guderian:
Are you still focusing on the "regardless of what one of us flips" thing? By continuing to complain about that, you are demonstrating that you missed the entire point of my argument. I was calling YOU out for taking a safe intermediate position where you can push both lynches even after one of us flips. You didn't address that at all and instead tried to paint my quote as a scumslip, which anybody can read and tell you that it isn't.

I was going to say some other stuff about post 476, but Magna already brought it up.

[Kdub]

Jack, I know you're a man of few words, but if you're going to call a case bogus with no explanation, it is not furthering the discussion in any way.

Katsuki, I'm still waiting for those reasons.

I'm of the opinion that we need to try and bruteforce this, and that scumhunting at this point is less fruitful than breaking the setup. As Reck has pointed out, if we massclaim, absolute bestcase scenario is that we end up with a subset of 7 players, 3 of whom are Scum. Furthermore, we'll lock all of the Scum into mini-groups of Colour claims, and then as more and more people die, we'll have more chances to lynch within a subset of players for increased Scum odds.

The worst case scenario is that the mods put in a mechanic to punish massclaim, so we think we have broken it but in fact have not at all. I don't know much about dana as a mod, but I know Charlie is not an idiot because I am working with him on a setup and I know how he thinks about designing games. I can be almost certain that he will have given safeclaims in a way such that massclaim will not break the setup.

[Kdub]

Jack, the difference between you and Plum is that she was already suspicious of tans for reasons unrelated to the single scum-team theory, so if she got a feeling that he really did believe that theory, that shouldn't have impacted her earlier reasons for calling him scum. And if, for whatever reason, she did get a gut feeling that he may not be scum based on his conviction of the theory regardless of those earlier reasons, why did she not just say so when asked about it instead of the vague, wordy non-answer she gave instead?

Kdub, even assuming the Scum has optimal fakeclaims (whether provided, planned, or luck), we still get subsets of {6, 6, 6, 7} people, each of which contains exactly 4 Town. That means that today, we can get ~43% chance of lynching correctly today, by targetting the group of seven. This is as opposed to 36% chance of lynching correctly from the set of all players. Furthermore, as people gets lynched and NK'd, the number of alive players in each subset will decrease, but we will always know the exact number of Town players in each group. So every Day, we will be able to get better results from targetting the subset with the highest percentage of Scum in it, as opposed to lynching from the set of all players.

There are a lot of assumptions here that things will work out in exactly this way. 43% vs. 36% is all well and good, but this also only applies to the one group of 7 on D1. Also, by mass claiming, we are helping scum to optimize their night choices, which needs to be considered as well.

[Kdub]

Plum:
If you had other reasons for thinking tans wasn't scum after your revelation, you did not mention any of that when I asked you about it. This looks very much like a revisionist excuse. It is your response (468 and 471) as much as your initial inconsistency with your opinion of tans that I find suspicious.

With that said, post 801 strikes me as a pretty reasonable/genuine post.

---

Katsuki:

faking that you do not know how I play considering that you've both played with and modded over me before

You either misread or misinterpreted my post about my past history with you. I said your play here is different from what I've seen of both your town and scum play, which is why I initially found it strange. How is that "fake"? Are you claiming that your play here is similar to how you usually play as town and that I am lying about that? I would like to see some links to some of your past games as town where you feel you played in a similar manner. You have very much been wagon hopping and following other's votes with very little reasoning of your own. I asked you for your reasons for all of your scum suspects, not just me. For example, you are currently voting Starbuck for no apparent reason, even though you indicated early on that you didn't want to go for a lurker lynch. Why the change of heart? I'm not seeing any pro-town motivation for the way you have played up to this point.

---

More importantly, for some reason everyone seems to be assuming that there's all these magical traps against MCing, or that it won't work for whatever reason. What if the Mods actually said to themselves "So since we're telling them there's 4 of each colour, so we better make the Scum better than normal to compensate for the fact that the Town are obviously going to mass colourclaim, and so get an edge over a standard 1-4-4-16 game."

First of all, that's just as much a "what if" as the assumption that there is some trap against massclaiming. Second, my mod meta on Charlie tells me that it's not likely he would balance against massclaim in this way.

---

Other stuff:
KageLord's post 538 is pretty bad. He thinks the alignment-confirmed masons thing is real, then wants to lynch one of them? Even if you believed the claim was for real, do you not understand how such a claim would be suicide if it were a scum gambit?

I'm not caring too much for the Starbuck wagon. It feels like it's too easy - wagon someone for preferring scum, speculating about flavor, and before they have posted content to analyze. Giver her a chance to catch up first at least, then see what she has to say.

Funny how Andrius (753) said tans' wagon (me, Plum, Guderian) was "infested" with scum, then put just tans+Guderian on his scum list. Not quite sure what to make of that.

The Jack copy/paste thing is strange, but why does that make him more likely to be scum?

[Kdub]

Katsuki, feel free to continue discussing my meta/your meta, but don't talk about ongoing games because I felt you were close to going in that direction.

Starbuck is not the lynch today, barring any revelations. There is no good reason for Reck to be faking having town info on her right now.

I can get behind a Guderian lynch today. tans and Plum are still scummy, but those wagons are going nowhere right now.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Guderian

[Kdub]

Kat, it's not the caps lock thing, it's the huge volume of spam/pointless posts and your almost complete lack of reasoning behind your suspicions.

I took a quick look at a few of your past town games. My impressions:
Mini 1018 - Your posts here almost always contain analysis/reasoning, and you are much more committed to scumhunting.
Mini 1045 - Your play initially looks similar to this game, but you quickly shape up (around iso #23).
Magician's Mafia - Hey look, actual reasons being provided for your votes! No blindly following Fate!

I'll take a look at some others later. Admittedly, you are also playing differently than the one game of scum meta I have on you. I still don't see how you are being pro-town by playing in this manner though.

[Kdub]

Based on Guderian's actions, tans is probably not red scum. He's still potentially yellow scum, but I've cooled off on him for now.

As Andrius pointed out already, Dram was pushing for massclaim, indicating that scum do indeed have some counter that would make massclaim advantageous for them. This looks pretty bad for people who were pushing for massclaim, particularly Sens.

I'm going to treat Starbuck as confirmed town, and I think looking at her wagon before Reck put a stop to it will be useful.
Here's the peak of the Starbuck wagon from yesterday's vote counts:

Starbuck [5] - Jack, The Stove, MagnaofIllusion, Fate, Katsuki

Probably some scum here.

DO NOT QUICKLYNCH BEFORE SOME PEOPLE HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO POST TODAY. In particular, I would like to hear from xvart and KageLord since they were on Reck yesterday.

If I counted right,

Sens is at L-1

. Now would be a good time to claim, Sens.

I will reread certain players tomorrow in light of the new flips before putting down a vote.

[Kdub]

Thread explosion in the last 12 hours. I'd prefer a Katsuki lynch over nopoint at the moment. Hopefully a vig will take care of nopoint tonight.

VOTE: Katsuki

L-2 I believe.

It must have been because I was roleblocked or

Vi was janitored.

Emphasis added. Janitoring has nothing to do with this. Vi died. You hid behind him. Thus regardless of whether he was janitored you should be worm food. The question is -- were you role-blocked? I honestly don't want anyone pipping up to say so since they are likely a Town PR given how scummy you were yesterday.

To add to this, I believe hiding resolves before roleblocking anyway, so it's irrelevant.

xvart: Did anything interesting happen to you last night? A simple yes or no will suffice for now.

KageLord would be a great target for an investigation tonight.

Magna may have been out of line with the avatar bet thing, but pushing for his modkill would hurt the game far more than a bet. It's been made clear that it's not allowed, so just drop it for now and discuss it when the game is over.

[Kdub]

xvart, what is your opinion of Sens/SpyreX today given Reck's flip?

[Kdub]

Ugh, I was hoping to hear more from xvart before we ended the day.

Anyway, before we go to night, I have an important announcement to make.

xvart is scum.

That is all.

[Kdub]

VOTE: xvart

I don't plan on claiming unless I have good reason to.

[Kdub]

UNVOTE:

Yeah we can wait until everyone has posted at least.

[Kdub]

If SpyreX's theory about nopoint being town is correct, it would be interesting to go back to D2 to see who was trying to push nopoint as the lynch over Katsuki.

[Kdub]

xvart, fullclaim immediately please. If you were town, you would have done that in your very first post today.

Nobody else claim anything, regardless of what he comes up with.

Let's wait for everybody to post something before we go ahead with a lynch.

[Kdub]

xvart, can you paraphrase the flavor in your role PM?

[Kdub]

Last question xvart: what is your full role name (name+role)?

[Kdub]

I want the role name, not just the character name.

[Kdub]

While we're waiting for xvart to answer my question, I've got another line of inquiry.

Magna, in your first post of D2 (post 1131), why do you vote nopoint while saying very little about Katsuki, despite the fact that there was strong evidence against both of them at the time? In fact, I would argue that the evidence against Katsuki (claimed result by confirmed town-Starbuck) was even stronger. I felt that your vote here stands out because the two wagons were both viable at this point, yet you are trying to push nopoint as the lynch over someone who we now know is scum. It may turn out that nopoint is scum as well, but the point still holds as long as he is not yellow.

For similar reasons, tans and Dekes probably are not yellow scum because they quickly shifted the vote lead back to Katsuki right after that. Given Guderian's behavior toward tans on D1 in addition to this, tans is probably not mafia. Again, this is contingent on nopoint not being yellow scum.

[Kdub]

Well, there's not much xvart could have said that would have changed my mind, but just in case people wanted further non-secret power reasons to think he is scum, check out his role flavor in post 1312.

I did a google search on his claimed character name, and here's the first link that came up: http://www.comicvine.com/sister-sercy/29-61570/

Pretty much everything in his flavor description can be found in that link.

[Kdub]

I'm still waiting for Magna to respond to my post, plus I think Kast was going to post something. We should probably hear something from Kitoari before we end the day as well.

If nobody else has anything important to bring up, then I think we can proceed with lynching xvart once those things have happened.

[Kdub]

Don't end the day just yet. Still waiting on Magna, plus we can see if Kit wants to full claim (again, nobody counter regardless of what he says). I think lynching xvart is still the correct play.

[Kdub]

Some final thoughts before we go to night:

Magna should still be looked into as possible yellow-scum. At the very least, he needs to explain his D2 stance on nopoint/Katsuki.

If xvart is telling the truth about Sens being red scum, we should look at the D1 and D2 wagons on Sens to find yellow scum as well. Likewise, the last red scum might have been trying to derail the Sens wagons. I get the feeling xvart is being truthful about Sens, though he may still be lying about his own role.

Jack has been noticeably absent from vote counts since the start of D2. Seriously, he hasn't put down a single vote despite there being some very good lynch candidates. That is troublesome. Getting some mild SK-vibes from his behavior.

Hopefully some of this will be sorted out tonight.

[Kdub]

I voted for NoPoint because I thought (as I continue to do so) he was scum. You can, from a position of hindsight, claim that Katsuki had stronger evidence against him. In hindsight I can’t dispute he was scum. That said –

1. I had a scum-read on NoPoint during Day 1.
2. His claim of not dying despite Hiding behind Vi read to me as an attempt to cover for the unrevealed potential Track result from Spyrex D2.

If as this game progresses you feel the need to string me up in a PoE process (which is clearly where the game is headed in quick fashion) to root out scum do so. I’m not going to stop playing the way I do and stop scum-hunting to play follow the Cop / Failed Recruit / Nebulous Unspecified Result. I know I’m not going to flip Yellow or Red or Orange. So do what needs to be done.

That said I’d like you comment on NoPoint’s claim of Hider and the information I pointed out in 1307.

Also, I’ve looked at you Day 2 ISO. Why did you not press against AGM or any of the other playes who actively argued against Guderain’s lynch Day 1?

I'm not disputing that you found nopoint scummy, I'm more concerned with the fact that you almost completely ignored Katsuki to focus on nopoint when there was clear evidence of her being scum that should have been acknowledged.

I agree with you that nopoint's claim sounds like a possible action-immune scum (SK?). However, I have reasons to trust SpyreX/Andrius, and I think we'll find out sooner or later whether he is scum or not, so I haven't been worrying too much about it.

AGM's been a bit under the radar for me, plus I was focused on xvart yesterday since I knew he was scum. He only defended Guderian after it was clear that Gud was going to be lynched, and I'm not sure he would do that if he knew Gud was flipping scum. If anything, his defense of Gud plus his attacks on Sens make him more likely to be yellow scum than red.

[Kdub]

Magna, did anything happen to you last night? Just say yes or no.

Black Lantern Corps = cult? The mod's comments are a bit vague and I don't know the source material. If it is a cult, then unfortunately we can't assume anyone as confirmed town anymore, but we can deal with that later.

[Kdub]

Dekes, how would you suggest we start hunting for black scum then? Mass claim is going to do little good since anyone who has been converted can claim their original role and actions.

I'd like to hear from Magna before I say anything else.

[Kdub]

tans, why would you not shoot at Sens last night?

[Kdub]

I believe you, but I want to have a chat with Magna before I say anything more on it.

[Kdub]

I do not think we should decide on mass claim until everyone has posted today. We can figure out what to do then depending on how many scum we've caught.

I would also like to point out that if we assume symmetry between the red and yellow factions, the last red scum is likely some sort of investigative role (I'm guessing rolecop or tracker), and the yellow scum probably have a goon and some sort of manipulative role (I'm guessing framer/tailor or a reflexive-something) left.

[Kdub]

Dekes's idea is worth a try.

VOTE: ReaperCharlie

Mod: votecount please

Tans is almost certainly today's lynch, although I still am waiting to hear from Magna. Tans is basically confirmed scum though.

[Kdub]

I'm guessing that the black lantern faction does not have a night kill, so I don't think KK is cleared of being the black recruiter, but he is likely cleared of being red/orange/yellow (assuming gunsmiths wouldn't get a positive result on recruiters).

I am still undecided on massclaim until we hear from everybody, but if Andy has reason to think he can figure this out, I'll go along with it. Since Magna appears to be the top suspect of those who haven't claimed yet, I propose that if we claim, the order go like this:

Magna -> popcorn among {Kast, Dekes, nopoint, KageLord, AGM} -> KK -> {me, Andy, Stove} in some order (if necessary)

Unless we can catch the black recruiter for sure today, I still think tans is the best lynch.

[Kdub]

Sorry, I might not get a chance to read the last page in detail until later tonight. Just one thing for Andy regarding Magna, it's not what you think. I was bluffing. You were on the right track earlier. That's all I'm going to say for now.

[Kdub]

If black can recruit scum, then what happens to the recruited player? Do they suddenly vanish from the scum quicktopic? Furthermore, that immediately allows black to know who is in that scumteam and out them, which seems broken.

Now that everyone has posted, I still don't really see a huge benefit to mass claim, but if Andy has reason to believe it will help us, I am willing to go along with it. I have almost no knowledge of the source flavor, so I will defer to him.

Oddly enough, the more people try to push for a nopoint lynch, the less I want to lynch him. He strikes me as that scummy looking guy in every game who actual scum try to push a wagon onto to deflect from their buddies (tans in this case). I don't dispute that he looks like a possible SK, and his claim sucks, but we have 99.9% confirmed scum in tans. I can't fathom lynching anybody else today unless conclusive evidence surfaces against them (e.g. investigation results), moreso than a weak claim or improbable mechanics (both of which also apply to tans BTW).

What's the reason for people thinking that tans is yellow again? I'm actually thinking he has a chance of being orange himself. His claimed kill targets have to be truthful (or he would have exposed himself as lying scum to whoever actually killed them), and they strike me as "under the radar" targets that fit an SK looking to set up a future vig fakeclaim.

[Kdub]

So I guess the remaining color claims will go Dekes -> KK -> me/Stove?

[Kdub]

I picked orange/blue, and I got blue.

[Kdub]

Andy: Your request is doable, although you probably already knew I was going to say that since SpyreX confirmed us. I'm feeling a bit useless at the moment due to the flavor/color discussion and my lack of knowledge, but I trust you.

I still don't see a good argument for lynching possible/probable scum (nopoint) instead of confirmed scum (tans) today. We have lynched scum three days in a row and have gotten two additional scum deaths in three nights. Assuming the game was balanced to begin with, we have to be in pretty good shape at the moment.

[Kdub]

tans, you are like 99% scum, which is as good as confirmed as far as probabilities in mafia go. I have reasons to doubt that he was roleblocked which I won't get into.

I'm holding off on voting until Andy finishes whatever he's doing. We don't want to end the day before we're ready, like what happened yesterday.

[Kdub]

I have an active ability.

[Kdub]

tans is almost certainly not red. One of his claimed kills was dram, and he almost has to be telling the truth about those.

Andy, is it your opinion that killing scum tonight is more important than catching more scum?

[Kdub]

No time for a detailed post right now, but I just want to say that while Kast's claimed role sounds believable, I really don't like his claimed actions.

N1: Roleblock would be the absolute last of those three abilities I would choose to use on N1 unless you somehow have confirmed scum going into the night.
N2: What's the point of tracking xvart when I already had called him out as scum? What are you going to do, doubly confirm him as scum? Even worse is passing up a doc protect when several players (e.g. Starbuck, Fate) needed protection.
N3: Again, passing up a doc protect on me/Andy/SpyreX to switch colors, which he admits he had no idea how it would change his abilities.

Kast, I would like to hear an explanation on your actions each night.

[Kdub]

@KDub-
D1/N1 I had a pretty strong scum read on SF. Guderian's flip on D1 only increased that. Also, it sounds like you are evaluating RBs from a scum perspective rather than a town RB (limited scum RB is more inclined to wait for claims). If I could stop a N1 scum-kill that would be ideal.

If I have a strong scum read on N1, and I can roleblock or track them, I use the track every single time. Even if you somehow prevent a scum kill (you are assuming they perform the kill), you have no way of knowing that. Roleblocking on N1 (when information is most scarce) is almost never the best play here.

N2 I considered doc, but with a large number of plausibly claimed town PRs, several of whom seemed capable of some kind of investigation, I decided to keep that for a later night when there was a more critical/obvious protection target. Your end of day fingering of xvart was plausible, but not definite/damning. I was hoping that if xvart was SK or scum PR (or scum NK) I could verify both xvart as scum and confirm you as at least having some kind of investigative ability.

You've got to be joking. How much more obvious a protection target can you get than a confirmed mason and several people who had softclaimed investigative roles?

[Kdub]

I should add on that if you were hanging on to the doc protect for a later night, you wouldn't have switched colors the very next day before you could use it.

[Kdub]

Sorry for lack of content the past few days, it's been a bit of a crazy week for me.

Kast, I won't get into an argument about whether your actions were the "correct" plays to make or not. I'll just say that I do not believe that you, as town, would make the choices you say you did, and I'll leave it at that. As far as your plan to confirm your redirecting ability, Andy is right that I have good reason to believe it will not work on our abilities. For all intents and purposes, assume our actions are unblockable/unredirectable.

I'm still not feeling good about a nopoint lynch today, given our options. I could probably go for a Kast lynch since he's looking very much like scum with a bad fakeclaim, and is probably Black if that's the case. I would then recommend any town players who have a vig opportunity tonight to use it on tans.

[Kdub]

The scum (that is, the other scum that aren't on your team) won't touch you. If you somehow survive the night, you are definitely tomorrow's lynch.

[Kdub]

Kast:
I think you, as scum, were limited in that you needed to come up with plausible actions that couldn't be contradicted by anybody. You can try to redirect me if you want, but I'm telling you it would be worthless.

LOL tans thinks he could somehow draw a scum nightkill tonight.

Andy:
I don't think the fact that his claimed role doesn't work the same way as ours is a conclusive piece of evidence (unless there are flavor reasons that all blue roles would likely function the same way). He's still scum though. What is your view on the "lynch Kast, vig tans" idea?

[Kdub]

Kast, I already said you can assume our actions can't be redirected. Even if you were telling the truth, you couldn't prove it.

Andy:
I wasn't planning to claim, but I think you (and a couple others I think) already know what my N3 action was. Any new thoughts from your reread? I don't really have anything else to discuss today.

[Kdub]

Responding to prod. Just waiting for the go-ahead from Andy. I'm down for either a Kast or tans lynch, with the provision that the other get vigged tonight.

Kage, Andy's action is, for all intents and purposes, unblockable. tans is scum.

[Kdub]

@Andy/Kdub-
I don't know what your powers are, but you're both clearly jumping to conclusions and not reading my full post. I get that you both claim to have unblockable/unredirectable abilities that target others. I get that one of you can give your target the ability to one-shot vig (and potentially other abilities). From your responses, you weren't addressing my previous proposal. The proposal was that if you ARE REALLY unblockable/unredirectable, then I can redirect the VIG KILL (or WHATEVER ABILITY you grant to your target), NOT redirect you. Tell your vig target he has to shoot me; presumably you can pick a target who is unlikely to be "recruited" already.

Sorry, I'm not taking the bait. We'll target whoever we want, and we're not going to inform the scum of who those players may be.

Andy, I think you're getting a bit paranoid and overthinking things a bit. We've lynched scum the first three days in a row, and we've averaged one scum death per night (counting Toog). If we're dealing with an unfavorable situation, then the game wasn't balanced to start with.

Theory: black can only recruit operatives? We discussed why they couldn't recruit scum. It would be pretty bastardly if they could recruit a mason. And it would be hugely swingy if they could recruit one of the better town PRs. Just speculation.

I am still not in favor of a nopoint lynch over Kast or tans today, but if you (Andy) are absolutely convinced that's the right play, I'll go with it.

[Kdub]

I'm trying to process Kast's numbers post right now. I think he's probably scum though, so maybe it's not worth the effort.

[Kdub]

Part 1 of Kast's reasoning (contained in his first "spoilers" section):

First, I don't see why x1+x2+x3 necessarily has to equal 3. That assumes black recruited successfully every night. That is just highly unlikely for balance reasons, and even more unlikely if black has restrictions on who they can recruit. Also, you are making the assumption that lynching the recruiter leaves the already-recruited members still in the game and still on the black team. A lot of your scenarios also seem to assume that different scum groups will all target different town PRs, which is the worst case scenario, but fairly unlikely.

I feel like you are trying to paint a scenario that looks like doom for the town just to convince us not to lynch you, but in reality, a lot of things have to break just right, and the initial setup had to be extremely tilted against the town for this to occur. I'd like to see what your analysis would look like if we assume you are the black recruiter and we DON'T lynch you today (assume we lynch orange or whoever you want instead). If you're honest in your analysis, I bet things don't end up looking any better for the town, and in fact I could see things looking much worse.

For part 2 of your post (in your second "spoilers" section), it's fairly long and I may go through it in more detail later, but it looks like you are trying to argue for an orange lynch because there are more scenarios in which that helps the town, is that correct? I'm just going to point out that you have started with the assumption that you are town, which from my point of view (and the point of view of any other town player), can't be assumed up front, and probably changes your scenarios quite a bit when we account for those probabilities. If you were confirmed town, maybe your reasoning would apply, but by throwing out the possibility that you are scum, I can't draw any conclusions from these numbers because they only account for a very specific scenario.

I have to disagree with Kast, Kdub and Andrius on this. Having a Cult with a separate win condition in a game with 9 unrecruitable targets (4 Red, 4 Yellow and 1 Orange) is borderline bastard modding. Adding another 2 to 3 per Color (so assuming an average lets say 10) unrecruitable players would bring the unrecruitable total to 19.

If that is the case there is no way there is an independent player with a Cult Recruitor win condition. In that case I’d expect the Black Lantern appearance to be Mod driven (which I still consider VERY bastard modding).

I think it is a safer to make no assumptions at all and assume there is a Black cult out there that may be 3 members strong and plan accordingly.

I would consider it even more bastardly if Black could recruit scum (basically meaning their whole scum team is exposed) or a mason. It's plausible that Black can recruit other town PRs, although in that case, I think there would have to be some limitation (i.e. not unlimited recruit attempts) for balance.

[Kdub]

Stove:
That's a reasonable point, although I still believe there have to be some restrictions (e.g. limited number of recruits) for balance reasons.

[Kdub]

RTFP! I addressed this exact point in my post.

You presented two scenarios in which there is one Black (the recruiter) based on your "expected" setup, neither of which included you as scum. You did consider situations where you are scum in your scenarios where there are three Black scum, but it's misleading to point to that and say you "addressed" that point since the situation is different from your other one-black scum situation. What I am saying is that there is a huge number of situations (a large setup parameter-space if you will) which are not covered. It's hard to take you seriously when you focus on a limited number of scenarios and then complain about me not reading when I think you know very well that you are trying to cover for yourself. Your last post continues to take the most pessimistic views of the game situation rather than the most realistic. And if you think I am not following your reasoning properly or not reading your posts, I invite any other player to tell me that I'm wrong and that we actually shouldn't lynch you based on your numbers. Granted, some of the players favoring your lynch are probably scum, but the fact that not a single person has spoken out in support of you is a pretty good indication that your reasoning is not convincing.

I feel like this could go back and forth for a while unless someone else chimes in, so until somebody else brings up convincing points in favor of your argument, I'll back down and wait to see what Andy comes up with.

[Kdub]

I'm trusting you here Andy, I'll put my vote on tans whenever you give the go-ahead.

[Kdub]

tans is almost certainly not red or black because he has to be telling the truth about his claimed kills. He's either yellow or orange.

[Kdub]

Dekes, tans is not Black. See my last post.

[Kdub]

OK, I'll go along with a nopoint lynch if you're sure about this.

Anyone with a vig shot had better kill Kast or tans tonight.

[Kdub]

Alright Andy, give me the OK and I'll hammer.

[Kdub]

Magna is town. I've been going with hunches and/or null-reads rather than my direct suspicions this whole game, both for information purposes and for misdirection once it became clear I had some sort of power.

There is one orange, one yellow, and probably one black left. The only unconfirmed players are tans, Kast, and Kage. I guess you could make a case for Stove being an investigation-immune scum, but I say we lynch confirmed-scum tans, see where we stand tomorrow, and make a decision on that then. Andy, I suggest you target Dekes again. Dekes protects both of us again. I will try to confirm people with my power. Dekes will probably die, but we should have broken the game open.

Funny how tans is now claiming bulletproof AND unlynchable. Also, there is no dayvig and there haven't been any day kills, so the DK-immune part seems dubious.

VOTE: tanstalas

[Kdub]

Kage's claimed actions might even be worse than Kast's. No investigation on N1, no protection on N2? Also, he claims to finally investigate Magna on N3, conveniently after I've confirmed Magna as town already.

Kast:
My ability confirms Magna as non-scum. Your claim of redirecting him seems a bit convenient, but I'll concede that it's plausible. That doesn't confirm your alignment though.

Here's what's going to happen tonight. Andy targets Dekes. Dekes protects me and Andy. I will randomly target either Kast or Kage. If one of you receives a vig shot from me (meaning you are town), please use it to shoot the other. At the start of tomorrow, I will ask one of you (not necessarily the one I targeted) to claim your night actions. If your claim contradicts what I know actually happened, we lynch you.

[Kdub]

The no-recruiter theory is possible, but in that case, how many players would the black team need to have a fighting chance? I'd think they would need at least 3, and maybe more if they don't have a NK. And the bigger you assume the black team is, the more imbalanced the game starts to get against the town.

@Kdub-
If MoI started the game as Blue, then became a Black Recruiter on Plum's death, would your ability stop working on him?

Based on the way my ability is worded, yes it would stop working on him.

Anyway, I've laid out my plan for tonight and Andy seems to be in agreement. I'm ready to end the day whenever.

[Kdub]

My character's name is Sayd.

Tans has to be orange if he's telling the truth about not being yellow. If we assume black can't kill, then he can't be black because he claimed two kills.

[Kdub]

You know what they say, "Once you go Black, you don't go back."

[Kdub]

My thoughts on the setup:

The game was insanely swingy, and I feel that Black was imbalanced. Despite that, I thought it was still a fun game.

The main reason why I thought Black (and perhaps cults in general) was overpowered is that the "correct" strategy of scum and town banding together and hunting down the recruiter doesn't actually work in practice. This is because 1) Nobody knew about Black until a late stage in the game, when Black could have already had multiple recruits still alive (the fact that this didn't happen was actually bad luck for Black more than anything, this could have easily been a slaughter), 2) the town had caught several scum with investigation results, and it's pretty hard to convince people to pass up a lynch of a confirmed scum, and 3) a bulletproof, partial investigation-immune recruiter who could recruit scum and masons every night with limited restrictions would never be expected, even if we had known at the start that there was some sort of cult mechanic in the game. What made Magna so dangerous was not just the immunities, but that he could recruit all but 3 characters in the game, even "confirmed" town like the masons. The reason I was never particularly worried about Black until I was recruited myself is because I assumed for balance purposes that Black had to be severely limited in either the number of recruits they could get, or in who they could recruit. Maybe it was bad play for me to assume that, but I feel it's an assumption that most players would have made.

I was secretly hoping that Andy would pull a gambit where he would reveal himself as the cult recruiter and get himself lynched, just for the novelty of having a game where the town went a perfect 6/6 on scum lynches and still lost .

A possible idea: what if players who get recruited at night get a choice? They can either join the cult and win with the cult, or they can choose to die instead, but maintain their original win condition? If I had that choice on N4, I probably would have stuck with the town because I thought we were doing great with the number of scum we were catching. Town probably still would have lost, but it would have been an interesting wrinkle that might have weakened the cult a bit.

Basically I come to the same conclusion that SpyreX pointed out: cults are terrible

But like I said, I still had fun.

[Kdub]

There was nothing you could have done xvart, my ability was unblockable and could not be redirected, so anything you could have suggested that would have interfered with my result would have been shot down. The best you could have done is to try to force me to reveal my role to help out your scum team with planning for how to deal with me, but you still would have been lynched. It's got nothing to do with your play, you just happened to get caught by an infallible investigation result.

Also, if I targeted a VT, they would have received a vig shot as well. That's what happened on N3 when I targeted Jack.

[Kdub]

I think having the Black recruiter be bulletproof was OK, but I would have limited him to recruiting only town, and either giving him a limited number of recruit attempts, or having a number of town players (the color "leaders") be unrecruitable. The unfair part was having Black be able to recruit "confirmed" town pretty much every night.

[Kdub]

I think a lot of the issues people are having with the game could have been remedied by a simple solution: this game really needed to be advertised as a bastard mod game (and not just because of the cult).

[Kdub]

kdub - why did you pick me that night? were you using your role as an investigation because you thought I might be scum or because you thought I was town?

I tried to pick players who I either had no read on, or conflicted opinions about for all of my targets, as well as players who, if town, I felt I could trust to make reasonable kill choices. I could have picked a number of players N1, I just happened to pick you.

[Kdub]

That more than just the mod and back-up should have looked over the game.

Eh, I think this is nitpicking a bit. I've run games where I've had the setup reviewed by someone, and I naturally asked the setup reviewer to be my backup mod as well. I don't think it should be required to get someone not affiliated with the game at all to review it.