Blackest Night Mafia (GAME OVER!)

[Kdub]

I'm trying to process Kast's numbers post right now. I think he's probably scum though, so maybe it's not worth the effort.

[MagnaofIllusion]

At this stage all the speculation about what should or might happen Night 4 is pointless. Until we have a flip to judge whether we’ve yet again successfully lynched Scum and if so what type trying to plan around how Scum factions will operate is a waste of time and typing.

So lets get to hanging NoPoint or Tans or AGM or Kast.

--

Based on the numbers, we've got 11 alive, and assuming starting distribution of 4x per color:

Aside from the other inherently bad assumptions in your large wall of numbers (one of which is that I’m Yellow) this line in itself is exactly why you spent all the time you did for nothing. Based on the claims as they have come down and based on the existence of a Black Recruiter the 4 across the board theory has been blown to Hades.

I do think the Recruiting is Operative Only, sounds like a very plausible limitation/mechanic

I have to disagree with Kast, Kdub and Andrius on this. Having a Cult with a separate win condition in a game with 9 unrecruitable targets (4 Red, 4 Yellow and 1 Orange) is borderline bastard modding. Adding another 2 to 3 per Color (so assuming an average lets say 10) unrecruitable players would bring the unrecruitable total to 19.

If that is the case there is no way there is an independent player with a Cult Recruitor win condition. In that case I’d expect the Black Lantern appearance to be Mod driven (which I still consider VERY bastard modding).

I think it is a safer to make no assumptions at all and assume there is a Black cult out there that may be 3 members strong and plan accordingly.

Also, to add on Stove's speculation, I bet KK's setting up for a Stove recruit tonight.

If you really believe that KK is the Black Recruitor this is just stupid. Telegraphing in thread who you would want to recruit would be suicide.

This is another checkmark in the “Kast as Black trying to scum up an alternate candidate” column for me.

[Dekes]

Sorry, Kast, I read the last part of your spoilered section first and when it said lynching you would mean a guaranteed town loss the rest of it became suddenly awfully uninteresting.

I'm willing to leave Kast alone today if we lynch between tans and AGM. And reluctantly nipau.

I disagree with people who say the more scum factions we keep alive the more probable cross kills are. Scum have no interest in reducing the suspect pool. If the pool of town people is still big enough scum will imo always try to kill off townies and get scum from the other factions lynched.
The only common interest scum have with town is eliminating black if black's wincon is making up the majority.

And btw, am I the only one who thinks part of why black may be such a big threat now is because the mason recruiter got killed Night one. I think he was probably supposed to act as some kind of a counter-cult for town.

[nopointinactingup]

@MOI, Andy: I'm still voting tans, what SUP with you guys? It feels like you are purposely trying to paint me bad.
@MOI:
1> I didn't say you aren't Yellow xD I said you have a chance of not being yellow.
2> What's that logic? They basically said I'm not red, I'm not yellow, therefore I'm Orange. WTF?
3> G .... U .... T
4> ...
5> I change my playstyle a lot.
@Deke: Nipau LOL!

I like KDub's theory. Though there is many unrecruitables. Black appears later on in the game so they could use POE to deduce the Operatives easy peasy.

[Kdub]

Part 1 of Kast's reasoning (contained in his first "spoilers" section):

First, I don't see why x1+x2+x3 necessarily has to equal 3. That assumes black recruited successfully every night. That is just highly unlikely for balance reasons, and even more unlikely if black has restrictions on who they can recruit. Also, you are making the assumption that lynching the recruiter leaves the already-recruited members still in the game and still on the black team. A lot of your scenarios also seem to assume that different scum groups will all target different town PRs, which is the worst case scenario, but fairly unlikely.

I feel like you are trying to paint a scenario that looks like doom for the town just to convince us not to lynch you, but in reality, a lot of things have to break just right, and the initial setup had to be extremely tilted against the town for this to occur. I'd like to see what your analysis would look like if we assume you are the black recruiter and we DON'T lynch you today (assume we lynch orange or whoever you want instead). If you're honest in your analysis, I bet things don't end up looking any better for the town, and in fact I could see things looking much worse.

For part 2 of your post (in your second "spoilers" section), it's fairly long and I may go through it in more detail later, but it looks like you are trying to argue for an orange lynch because there are more scenarios in which that helps the town, is that correct? I'm just going to point out that you have started with the assumption that you are town, which from my point of view (and the point of view of any other town player), can't be assumed up front, and probably changes your scenarios quite a bit when we account for those probabilities. If you were confirmed town, maybe your reasoning would apply, but by throwing out the possibility that you are scum, I can't draw any conclusions from these numbers because they only account for a very specific scenario.

I have to disagree with Kast, Kdub and Andrius on this. Having a Cult with a separate win condition in a game with 9 unrecruitable targets (4 Red, 4 Yellow and 1 Orange) is borderline bastard modding. Adding another 2 to 3 per Color (so assuming an average lets say 10) unrecruitable players would bring the unrecruitable total to 19.

If that is the case there is no way there is an independent player with a Cult Recruitor win condition. In that case I’d expect the Black Lantern appearance to be Mod driven (which I still consider VERY bastard modding).

I think it is a safer to make no assumptions at all and assume there is a Black cult out there that may be 3 members strong and plan accordingly.

I would consider it even more bastardly if Black could recruit scum (basically meaning their whole scum team is exposed) or a mason. It's plausible that Black can recruit other town PRs, although in that case, I think there would have to be some limitation (i.e. not unlimited recruit attempts) for balance.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOI:
1> I didn't say you aren't Yellow xD I said you have a chance of not being yellow.
2> What's that logic? They basically said I'm not red, I'm not yellow, therefore I'm Orange. WTF?
3> G .... U .... T
4> ...
5> I change my playstyle a lot.

1. You suddenly are a lot less sure than you were earlier. Reads to me as backing off your position with not a single reason as to why.
2. I laid out in 1802 very succienctly why, aside from you brutally bad claim, I think you are very likely Orange. It has nothing to do with eliminating you from Red or Yellow. That you ONCE AGAIN ignore everything said doesn’t mean it isn’t there. It just means you are trying the ostrich defense.
3. Great. I’ll file that in the ‘Pointless’ cabinet for later.
4. I asked who you were voting for because Mod vote counts are very rare around here.
5. If you are actively trying to play this scummy as a “playstyle” change then you probably should worry less about being able to be metaed and more about not being Obv-scum. The last part is for future reference. I’m glad as scum you made that decision here.

I like KDub's theory. Though there is many unrecruitables. Black appears later on in the game so they could use POE to deduce the Operatives easy peasy.

I love how you are taking as fact that Black wasn’t here from the start. Am I wrong about you being Orange and you are Black instead and letting your inside info show?

--

I would consider it even more bastardly if Black could recruit scum (basically meaning their whole scum team is exposed) or a mason. It's plausible that Black can recruit other town PRs, although in that case, I think there would have to be some limitation (i.e. not unlimited recruit attempts) for balance.

I agree that Scum recruiting is outside of the Norm. I just don’t necessarily see Town PRs as being off the table logically.

[nopointinactingup]

All of your arguments can be interpreted in either direction MOI. In other word, you are not saying I'm scum, you are once again saying I might be scum, which goes for everyone. Ya?

[MagnaofIllusion]

All of your arguments can be interpreted in either direction MOI. In other word, you are not saying I'm scum, you are once again saying I might be scum, which goes for everyone. Ya?

Just No. Do everyone a favor and just stop flailing and hang quietly. You might save some dignity that way.

[nopointinactingup]

I thought Magna loves seeing scum flail? Or maybe you know that I'm not scum and trying to save yourself some dignity.

[nopointinactingup]

MOI: ZOMGGGGG NoPoint is scum for ignoring everythingzzz
Nopoint: Here you go, here are my arguments *bow*
MOI: STFU be ashamed of yourself and hang quietly
Nopoint: ???

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOI: ZOMGGGGG NoPoint is scum for ignoring everythingzzz
Nopoint: Here you go, here are my arguments *bow*
MOI: STFU be ashamed of yourself and hang quietly
Nopoint: ???

What? Your post isn't an argument. An argument would take all the things I've said an counter them. You do nothing of the sort. This is just pure, scumtastic rhetoric.

1. You haven’t EVER showns the breadcrumbs you claimed to have done.

Do so NOW

.
2. You haven’t made the slightest attempt to explain anything about that I pointed out in 1802 such as –

A. Why you didn’t claim untargettability when Hiding immediately when Spyrex claimed role info on you.
B. Why you claimed that Andrius tried to kill you instead of once again claiming untargettablilty when Andy claimed to have targeted you with a Cookie.
C. Why you only remembered about that 'part' of your role after Spyrex theorized about it.

3. You don’t address how improbable it is for a Hider to exist who can’t be targeted by any ability when Hiding and also doesn’t die when hiding behind scum. Also in context of flavor you didn’t explain how using a “Bulldozer” explains why you can’t be targeted by other abilities while hiding

I’m not going to even bother to ask you to explain your coasting and lack of scum-hunting.

The quote above is exactly the same thing AGM has tried (and been smacked down for). Thanks for adopting yet another scum tactic.

Facts as they stand

- your belabored explanation fits much more as trying to make your real role as an action Immune SK fit to a Hiderfake claim than an actual claim.

[nopointinactingup]

Haizz here we go again ..
1>

Now that you mention it. I've never been vigged before o.0

This means that I'm confident that I won't be vigged.
2>
A. Becuz I was not told that he targetted me
B. It was a fuking joke for godsake! And I thought it was obvious that nothing could target me while I hide.
C. No I didn't remember it when Spy theorized it. He just spoke it before I could.
3> Ok so the deal is. I have a bulldozer and could burst out of places where they keep me to hide away to live another day ( I have no idea why they have to keep me before killing me ). Ya ya I know you're gonna say it's madness odd bullshit blah blah blah but whatever, at least I'm not faking the damn thing. And yes, I would sue the mod for this irrational piece of chit xD.
Also, I actually have more chance of being killed if I hide. Since 4-5 people are targetted with kill abilities per night. I just don't die on those WITH INTENT TO KILL ME. So I think it's pretty balanced.
4> ? *Ignores*

[KageLord]

So Andy... NPIAU or tans? Both are almost sure scum, but I'm not sure which is which (i.e. which color) so I'm okay with either. I'm fairly sure that neither of them are yellow, so we should be getting rid of an NK either way (or a recruitment if we're lucky).

[MagnaofIllusion]

This means that I'm confident that I won't be vigged.

So that’s your breadcrumb. Nothing about being a Green Lantern, no attempt to work your Role Name in? Just you are confident you will not be vigged?

Weak. Moving on …

A. Becuz I was not told that he targetted me

Um what? No Hider is told that someone targeted them. Durp.

Furthermore explain this sequence of events –

I may have some more awesome to add to it.

Nopoint: Claim.

The clear implication here is that Spyrex has role information on you.

Nopoint needs to make with the claiming before night. 100%

This further solidifies that perception.

And what the deal with making me claim?

In your first post of the day you clearly show you see that Spyrex is asking you to claim.

Because SpyreX claimed something on you.

Andy expressly states that Spyrex has role information on you in the next post.

Ahh yeah I see. Spy could be rolefishing but Imma claim anyways cuz I'm kinda safe. I breadcrumbed it I'm a hider and I have no idea why I'm not dead yet.

This is your next post.

If your role functioned as you claim you wouldn’t have said Spy ‘could’ be role-fishing because you would know he was since he couldn’t have role-information on you. Instead you try to cover the eventuallity that you would be worried about -- a Watcher. This took place well before Kats claimed Watcher so your claim that you hid behind a dead body was the result.

B. It was a fuking joke for godsake! And I thought it was obvious that nothing could target me while I hide.

So now it was a joke. Derp.

Hider being unable to be targeted by any ability is not a standard but variant of the Hider role. And not dying when hiding behind scum is FAR from standard. In truth I’ve never seen it before. Also given that Reck supposedly died as a Mason trying to recruit Kats I find that particular claim by you suspect.

Ya ya I know you're gonna say it's madness odd bullshit blah blah blah but whatever, at least I'm not faking the damn thing.

Preemptively arguing against something is a mild scum-tell, IMO. Thanks for adding that to the list. Are you saying you are not faking anything because that is the ‘flavor’ you got in you Mod fake-claim?

Also, I actually have more chance of being killed if I hide. Since 4-5 people are targetted with kill abilities per night. I just don't die on those WITH INTENT TO KILL ME. So I think it's pretty balanced.

Way to once again try to ignore the fact that Hiders as a standard role die when hiding behind scum. So your conclusion that your role is ‘pretty balanced’ is fairly illogical.

[The Stove]

Has anyone ever stopped to consider the possibility that Black can recruit power roles and then they just STOP BEING POWER ROLES?

C'mon people.

[Andrius]

That's a good point, but it couldn't recruit masons... :/

10 pages left. Reading in a bit.

[Kdub]

Stove:
That's a reasonable point, although I still believe there have to be some restrictions (e.g. limited number of recruits) for balance reasons.

[Andrius]

Mason recruiter was odd-night
In the reread starbuck said reck was odd-night only.

[The Stove]

@Mod: Votecount plz

And please do them more often.

I'm pretty fried with this day honestly. If ya'll don't want to lynch Yellow I think that's a mistake (reminder: scum factions need to off other scum factions just as much as town) BUT next best thing is sk/black recruiter guy. So I'm cool with a NPIAU wagon, just making sure AGar is cool too before I switch.


-PZ

[Andrius]

I'm considering the merits of lynching tans.
EVEN if he doesn't die.

Because he'll either:
A) flip scumbag
B) be unlynchable and that's confirmed, we move into night; someone will shoot him before he can shoot tomorrow night, so. :/

[Andrius]

You know what? Fuck.
Quick little thing to add to the mystery of Blue-ness tonight:
Dekes, you a PR with an active ability?
Just wondering if I need to be going after Greens or Indigo tonight.

[Kast]

Aside from the other inherently bad assumptions in your large wall of numbers (one of which is that I’m Yellow) this line in itself is exactly why you spent all the time you did for nothing. Based on the claims as they have come down and based on the existence of a Black Recruiter the 4 across the board theory has been blown to Hades.

Based on the claims as they have come down and the existence of a single Black Recruiter who otherwise defies the 4x per color, then 4x per color is PERFECTLY supported by all evidence at hand.
Also, nothing in my numbers assumes you are Yellow, you're just whining about being called probable Yellow.

Telegraphing in thread who you would want to recruit would be suicide.

Explain. There's obvious benefit if Stove gets killed and flips Black Recruit; it gives KK a platform to claim his speculations are correct. If people make the silly assumption that you are doing, then Stove flipping Black Recruit also let's him push the defense that he can't be the Black Recruiter because he wouldn't have pointed out Stove as a Black Recruit.

@Kdub-
Are you actually reading through my scenarios?

First, I don't see why x1+x2+x3 necessarily has to equal 3.

This is based on the speculation that KK and others have pushed forward as the PRIMARY reason for lynching me: Kast is Black Recruiter and has been recruiting successfully since N1.
You can run through each scenario while subtracting 1-2 Black Recruits and adding 1-2 additional towns, but the REASON that situations of successfully lynching the Black Recruiter TODAY result in a TOWN LOSS hinges on the number of kills happening each night. Scum doesn't care whether it's 5 Town - 1 Black, 4 Town - 2 Black, or 3 Town - 3 Black. It's all the same to them in terms of the voting pool and whether to shoot each other or not.
You could also look at the scenarios in the latter half in which Black Recruiter is lynched first, but take out Kast's potential redirect. Those scenarios also result in Town Loss without the redirection to kill a scum and block a town death.

A lot of your scenarios also seem to assume that different scum groups will all target different town PRs, which is the worst case scenario, but fairly unlikely.

This is just you being lazy and not reading. I included both scenarios where 3 scum kills result in 2 town deaths AND where 3 scum kills result in 3 town deaths. The scenario where 3 scum kills results in 1 town death is just wishful thinking.

I'd like to see what your analysis would look like if we assume you are the black recruiter and we DON'T lynch you today (assume we lynch orange or whoever you want instead). If you're honest in your analysis, I bet things don't end up looking any better for the town, and in fact I could see things looking much worse.

Spoiler: Done

Assuming Kast is Black Recruiter with 2 Black Recruits, then leaving him today means:
(1) Lynch SK (removes a kill and allows potential NK on Red)
(2) Lynch Yellow (evens playing field among scum teams; making crosskills more likely in end game)

-If (1), then:

1

/

0

/

2

/

0

/

2

/

2

/

0

/3

--Black is needs to be killed by town and still not a threat to scum.
--Remaining Scum still have to aim for Town PRs.
--Assuming town has a vig, then SK is off limits due to BP so Black Recruiter is the obv kill with Red as runner up.

Probable results:
(1.1) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Black Recruiter (Kast); Black Recruits Town.
(1.2) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Black Recruiter (Kast); Black Recruiting Fails.
(1.3) Red kills town PR (Andy); Yellow kills town PR (Andy); Blue kills Black Recruiter (Kast); Black Recruits Town.
(1.4) Red kills town PR (Andy); Yellow kills town PR (Andy); Blue kills Black Recruiter (Kast); Black Recruiting Fails.

-For (1.1) and (1.2), this puts us in this situation:

1

/

0

/

2

/

0

/

0

/

1-2

/

0

/3-2

--Lynch Red then Yellow. Yellow is forced to aim for Black and create a three way 1 Yellow, 1 Town, 1 Black that's likely to be a 1-1 Black-Town Stalemate.
--Lynch Yellow. Red and Yellow can't cross kill yet (guarantees loss to Black) so they must shoot Black. Cross kill leaves a 1-1 Black-Town Stalemate.

Black-Town Stalemate if (1.1), low chance for town win if (1.2).

-For (1.3) and (1.4), this puts us in this situation:

1

/

0

/

2

/

0

/

1

/

1-2

/

0

/3-2

--Lynch Red, then Yellow. If surviving blue PR can make a vig, then town wins. If not, then Yellow plays Kingmaker with Town and Black.
--Lynch Yellow. Red and Yellow can't cross kill yet (guarantees loss to either Town or Black). They have to kill the remaining town PR to stop potential vigs (probably double kill). If town has a vig, then shoot one scum group. Remaining scum group plays Kingmaker between Black or 1-1 Town-Black Stalemate (1.4 changes this to Kingmaker between Town or 1-1 Town-Black Stalemate).

Winning strategy is to eliminate the kills by lynching Red.

-If (2) then:

1

/

1

/

1

/

0

/

2

/

2

/

0

/3

--Black needs to be killed by town and still not a threat to scum.
--Remaining Scum still have to aim for Town PRs.
--Assuming town has a vig, then SK is off limits due to BP so Black Recruiter is the obv kill with Red as runner up.

Probable results:
(2.1) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Blue kills Black Recruiter (Kast); Black Recruits Town.
(2.2) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Blue kills Black Recruiter (Kast); Black Recruiting Fails.
(2.3) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Black Recruiter (Kast); Black Recruits Town.
(2.4) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Black Recruiter (Kast); Black Recruiting Fails.

-For (2.1), town is eliminated and for (2.2) town has essentially lost:

1

/

1

/

1

/

0

/

0

/

0

/

0

/3

--Lynching non-SK means SK forces Kingmaker between himself and either Red or Yellow.
--Lynching SK lets Red and Yellow force Nash cross kill between each other with either Black win or 1-1 Town-Black Stalemate.

This is just bad for town.

-For (2.3), the situation boils down to 2.2 which gives town at best a Stalemate, while (2.4) is the only moderate outcome for town:

1

/

1

/

1

/

0

/

0

/

1-2

/

0

/3-2

--Lynching non-SK means SK forces Kingmaker between himself and Red or Yellow.
--Lynching SK lets Red and Yellow force Nash cross kill that results in either Town win, Black win, or Stalemate (Red/Yellow determine this with their kills).

Overall, lynching Yellow would be a bad strategy now.

I'm just going to point out that you have started with the assumption that you are town, which from my point of view (and the point of view of any other town player), can't be assumed up front, and probably changes your scenarios quite a bit when we account for those probabilities.

RTFP! I addressed this exact point in my post.

[Andrius]

And if my plan works tonight, it won't follow any of the forecasted scenarios.
Because I don't want to trust in those scumbags to do what they have to do.

[ReaperCharlie]

Alright. Though not much has changed since the last vote count (Kast voted nopoint, that's it).
And it's only been a few pages since the last one I did. Maybe if you guys were more active...

Vote Count

Kast [2] - Kublai Khan, Dekes

tanstalas [2] - nopointinactingup, The Stove

nopointinactingup [2] - MagnaofIllusion, Kast

MagnaofIllusion [1]

- AlmasterGM

Not voting [4]

- Andrius, KageLord, Kdub, tanstalas

With 11 alive, it is 6 to lynch. Deadline is February 10, 2011.

[Kast]

@Andy-
If you have something that gives town a big advantage, then awesome.
By saying you don't want to trust that scum will do what they have to do, are you saying you want to assume scum will suicidally kill each other tonight?