Mini 1102 - Rivertown Mafia (Game Over!)

[InflatablePie]

god everyone stop changing votes

also FoS Nico for lurking

I think this puts Koopa in the lead,

@Mod: Votals please? And maybe PM Nico like 12 times so he knows that he's been replaced? <_<

[el simo]

I don't know I've never been one to use my gut in this game, Admiral. If a tell is committed and my gut tells me not to vote him I'm only going to be distracted by him as long as he is alive.

Scum tell is scum tell, gut feeling or no. My vote stays.

[ThAdmiral]

I don't know I've never been one to use my gut in this game, Admiral. If a tell is committed and my gut tells me not to vote him I'm only going to be distracted by him as long as he is alive.

Scum tell is scum tell, gut feeling or no. My vote stays.

Oh I am totally with you as far as scum tell>gut. In fact I hardly use my gut because, as you say, it can distract you and make you second guess yourself. I don't think I've ever voted someone based solely on gut.
But... I feel like I have an ok-to-good handle on whether someone voicing their frustrations are doing so as town or as scum. In this case I believe sora is town.

[diddin]

Votecount

ortiz1193 (0)
el simo (0)
ThAdmiral (0)
Furcolow (2) Umbrage, Fugitive
Umbrage (3) chamber, Furcolow, Olinea
chamber (0)
sorasgoof (1) el simo
InflatablePie (0)
Olinea (0)
Cyberbob (1) ortiz1193
Thirdkoopa (4) Sorasgoof, Cyberbob, InflatablePie, ThAdmiral
Fugitive (0)
Not Voting (0)Thirdkoopa

It is now day one. With 12 Alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 6 to no lynch. Deadline is Wednesday, January 5 at 10:41 AM Central Time.

[InflatablePie]

After attempting a votecount analysis and failing halfway, I've come up with this:

InflatablePie

Olinea

chamber

ThAdmiral

el simo

Furcolow

Fugitive

Cyberbob

ortiz1193

Umbrage

sorasgoof

Thirdkoopa

(guess who's having fun with the new(?) font color thingy)

I believe 3K is still our best bet for a lynch at this time. I'm seeing Umbrage as worse and worse as the day goes on, but that might also be due to the gaining suspicion on him subconsciously influencing my thoughts of him, if that makes sense.

There's just something about this game, I'm having a really hard time getting decent reads on people... =/

[el simo]

Right so you failed in an attempt to analyse something but you post the results anyway because?

[Olinea]

Also, which is of note, Umbrage disapproved of me and chamber posting snippets earlier on but he appears to have no problem with Furcolow doing so.

With Furcolow, it's far more obvious

That he's posting snippets? What do you mean by this? I don't think that it's difficult to tell if it's a snippet or not just based on who's posting it.

and he's a new player

Judging by join date, unless I haven't kept too close of a track, you and I are the two newest members on this site, not to mention that Furcolow claims to be an alt. I wouldn't expect many new players to create an actual and a "VI alt" when they sign up.

He's already taking a lot of flak.

From you.

Why would you feel the need to remark that the sky is blue?

Confused by this. Is "Umbrage scorning chamber/Olinea but being okay with Furcolow" equivalent to "The sky is blue"? Because you appear to be asserting that the sky is

not

blue.

[InflatablePie]

el simo: Because posting my new/updated reads is better than doing nothing?

[Fugitive]

el simo: Because posting my new/updated reads is better than doing nothing?

Oh, those are your reads? That wasn't clear. It looked like those were the results of vote analysis and solely vote analysis.

[el simo]

Olinea, Furcolow is NOT an alt.

Ip Man, my point was that you are making reads on an admittedly failed analysis. In other words your failed analysis is now the basis of your new reads. I don't get it, it doesn't make much sense.

[InflatablePie]

Right, I'm tired as hell so my posts probably aren't making much sense. I attempted to do a voting analysis and gave up on it halfway because it's slightly hard to do with no alignment flips yet. But from the little bit of analysis I did, it helped me get some slightly new reads on people. Notably oritz, who had no problem jumping off of the el simo wagon once it began to pick up steam, only to go onto the Umbrage wagon, and now sits comfortably on Cyberbob who probably won't be lynched. There's something fishy there. If I had the time and patience and was able to concentrate long enough to thoroughly examine everyone's voting patterns, I could probably come up with something of more substance than what I've been posting lately.

*sigh* This all makes sense in my head, I'm just not great at explaining this stuff.

[Furcolow]

I'm at the top of 16
I noticed Umbrage and Fugitive were voting me
my initial reaction is to laugh at this
I seriously doubt the town will lynch me

Anyways, I will be catching up on this game tomorrow in all likelihood. I am happy with where my vote is on umbrage, am unsure of 3rdkoopa, but I will definitely consider pushing someone fresh not even wagonned yet if my reading tomorrow goes well. here's to scumhunting

[Umbrage]

I am willing to switch my vote over to ThirdKoopa if it comes to it. I'm not going anywhere in the couple of days.

Also, which is of note, Umbrage disapproved of me and chamber posting snippets earlier on but he appears to have no problem with Furcolow doing so.

With Furcolow, it's far more obvious

That he's posting snippets? What do you mean by this? I don't think that it's difficult to tell if it's a snippet or not just based on who's posting it.

Posting in snippets is the least of Furcolow's problems right now. He's done way worse.

and he's a new player

Judging by join date, unless I haven't kept too close of a track, you and I are the two newest members on this site, not to mention that Furcolow claims to be an alt. I wouldn't expect many new players to create an actual and a "VI alt" when they sign up.

He isn't an alt of an experienced player. From what he's said, I'm guessing this is his main.

He's already taking a lot of flak.

From you.

So what's the problem?

Why would you feel the need to remark that the sky is blue?

Confused by this. Is "Umbrage scorning chamber/Olinea but being okay with Furcolow" equivalent to "The sky is blue"? Because you appear to be asserting that the sky is

not

blue.

OK, let me put it this way: would you want to convict a murderer of vandalism? Of course not. A small tell on a scummy player isn't as noticeable as the same tell on an otherwise town player.

This all makes sense in my mind, anyway. I've tried to explain the best I can.

[InflatablePie]

This all makes sense in my mind, anyway. I've tried to explain the best I can.

And FoSes are a worthless waste of space imo.

Why?

sorasgoof

Some general things I've noticed:
-Inactive players are slipping completely under the radar. TheLonging, and Thirdkoopa have notably came under very little suspicion..

>implying 3K is suspicious ("slipping completely under the radar") for his lack of posting

Not so much about Tk, he's actually not been posting much overall. Not to say I don't find him scummy, I just don't find him scummy for his activity levels.

...

I don't really get that vibe as much from soras either, though more than Tk, because he seems to at least be trying to defend himself and his activity seems fairly consistent as well, but there was a bit of a drop off.

Nothing too notable from either.

But your read earlier says he's pretty scummy... yet you have nothing notable?

soras, as you can see by my reads, is already a large suspect of mine.

[Thirdkoopa]

I keep disappearing because of my time online. At this point, I'm just tempted to ask for a replacement. (Watch as you guys somehow turn this into a scumtell)

I'll check if there's anything I need to reply to first but I don't want to make another wall.

[sorasgoof]

@Thirdkoopa: To me, it could be a scumtell, because when I'm scum, I always lurk/threaten to ask for a replacement.

[InflatablePie]

I keep disappearing because of my time online. At this point, I'm just tempted to ask for a replacement. (Watch as you guys somehow turn this into a scumtell)

Sexy Jesus H. Christ, you're sounding like soras now.

@Thirdkoopa: To me, it could be a scumtell, because when I'm scum, I always lurk/threaten to ask for a replacement.

omg you're using WIFOM you're scum

unvote, vote: soras

[Thirdkoopa]

Sexy Jesus H. Christ, you're sounding like soras now.

When you have classes in every corner and a generally busy life it's kinda hard to get time in just to be able to read the thread :/

And my problem with this game is similar to yours, Pie. I can't really get much straight with my reads. Since I know now that people will still care, I'll argue the points I need to.

[InflatablePie]

Sexy Jesus H. Christ, you're sounding like soras now.

When you have classes in every corner and a generally busy life it's kinda hard to get time in just to be able to read the thread :/

And my problem with this game is similar to yours, Pie. I can't really get much straight with my reads. Since I know now that people will still care, I'll argue the points I need to.

I was talking about this:

(Watch as you guys somehow turn this into a scumtell)

[Cyberbob]

ugh sorry about the slight absence, I haven't had any energy over the last couple of days with work (we're chronically understaffed)

Umbrage and Pie are both flailing really really hard to try and find a lynch that they can point to and say that they were a part of. Pie's #460 is particularly painful to read.

[el simo]

^truth

I'd still prefer a sora lynch but I really hate how quickly TK pops up when he name is mentioned and how quickly he disappears when the focus shifts off him. I wouldn't have a problem hammering him to avoid a no lynch, he's probably second on my list. The only reason sora jumped ahead of him is because my recently found suspicion of Ip Man makes me nervous about the validity of the case he built against 3K.

Also interesting to note that his top three suspects are the three flaking most heat from the town. Nice set up for an easy hammer.

[InflatablePie]

I'm not trying to find a lynch just to be a part of it, I am trying to find scum. And probably failing. Like I said, I'm feeling worse and worse about Umbrage, which makes me feel better about soras. Hence why I changed my vote back to 3K. Not to mention I don't like his burst-then-unburst of activity. I went from being very suspicious of him, to becoming less sure, and now I'm back at thinking he's scum.

Umbrage admits in 410 (I think) that he did a good job of pulling a wagon off of 3K, and since I'm finding him more scummy, I'm also finding 3K more scummy by comparison. Not that this is my only reason for the 3K vote, nor does this mean I'm sure of Umbrage being scum, it's just extra reasoning.

3K is our best lynch at this point IMO - on the slim chance he even IS town, he's certainly not contributing (again). I can even settle for an oritz/Cyberbob/Fugitive lynch at this point (preferring oritz out of those three of course), but like I said earlier, we do need to focus on a wagon... and those three look like the main choices. Deadline's in what, two RL days? Less?

Also interesting to note that his top three suspects are the three flaking most heat from the town. Nice set up for an easy hammer.

I understand why you think this, but isn't it possible there's a REASON these three are gaining the most heat? Like, I don't know, because they're the scummiest players? Anyways, out of all three, I'm least sure about Umbrage, because he was giving townie vibes early on... but he seems to be getting scummier as the day progresses. Not to mention the simple fact that so many people are now saying he's scum might be making my perception of him biased.

This game is making my brain hurt.

[ortiz1193]

So I take it no one wants to lynch CB? >_> I've been seeing "yeah he's scummy but I'd rather lynch xxx" all game which makes me think CB is scum who is just getting distanced.

Deadline is soon, with the activity we need to decide on a lynch by tomorrow night since deadline is in the AM on Wednesday. I'll switch to TK if necessary for a lynch, but I'd rather lynch CB or atleast Soras. The only other options seem to be Furcolow and Umbrage and neither are as good of lynches as TK.

Pie: You need to quit trying to scumhunt by connections on Day 1. I don't even know why you're trying without a single flip, it just seems pointless. Your reads on player A & B shouldn't be altered by player F voting a certain way >_>. (atleast not on Day 1)

[Cyberbob]

So I take it no one wants to lynch CB? >_> I've been seeing "yeah he's scummy but I'd rather lynch xxx" all game which makes me think CB is scum who is just getting distanced.

Watching mafia concepts thought up by good players mindlessly regurgitated by bad players is the funniest thing.

[Fugitive]

Pie, I'm actually genuinely concerned. You're not playing mafia like scum or town I've ever seen from you. It seems like context in everything, your posts and others', is just slipping past you. It's even hard to read your posts, and I've been even more confused by your recent posts, like the vote analysis and question addressed to me. So let me address the context problem with this suspicion you've brought up.

sorasgoof

Some general things I've noticed:
-Inactive players are slipping completely under the radar. TheLonging, and Thirdkoopa have notably came under very little suspicion..

>implying 3K is suspicious ("slipping completely under the radar") for his lack of posting

Not so much about Tk, he's actually not been posting much overall. Not to say I don't find him scummy, I just don't find him scummy for his activity levels.

...

You seem to be confusing "slipping under the radar" with "I'm suspicious of this person." I'm suspicious of Tk for the quality of his posting, not because of his activity. That doesn't also mean he's not slipping under the radar, though he's actually not anymore.

I don't really get that vibe as much from soras either, though more than Tk, because he seems to at least be trying to defend himself and his activity seems fairly consistent as well, but there was a bit of a drop off.

Nothing too notable from either.

But your read earlier says he's pretty scummy... yet you have nothing notable?

Nothing notable in relation to the question you asked, not nothing notable overall. Context, bro. I'm saying nothing is notable about their activity levels, not that nothing is notable about him. Yes, he's pretty scummy, and yes, nothing is notable about his activity level. See the contexts you were messing up? In fact, it seemed like you were taking things out of context to build a fake case. Again, el simo says +1 scum-tell. I happen to agree. Mixing and matching contexts to lie and make a case out of nothing.

soras, as you can see by my reads, is already a large suspect of mine.

Cool! Another picture! Basically, read above.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As far as the Tk wagon goes, it's not bad, but it's still not the best. And I like the best. The AtE from him was a little annoying, but not necessarily a scum-tell like Pie is trying to make. In fact, Pie is looking worse and worse, he's kind of building cases on everyone.

@CB - what was wrong with what ortiz said? Genuinely curious, I think he made a good point and I hate when people blow things off by just insulting someone's ability to play the game. That seemed pretty uncalled for.

el simo is looking more town, I don't fault him for defending fur. I tend to do that same if I think someone is town. Pie and Umbrage seem to find that suspicious though. That goes back to Pie building cases on everyone... though Umbrage does the same thing.

I like how fur reacted to the votes. I'm trying not to think too much on it, because he obviously hasn't read the case up yet, but just laughing them off like that actually seemed kinda townie. I'd still like to hear the responses to what I've said about him and what Umbrage is saying. I just read this whole damn game and I already feel like I need to reread. I keep second guessing everything. It seems like every player has a really scummy and really townie side. The vote stays for now though.

Does Umbrage pushing so hard of fur look like an early bus to anyone else? I just feel like the case lacks substance but it's being pushed so hard that he's disregarding every other player. That, and Umbrage seems eager to go with anyone as evidenced by the somewhat random Fur vote then the willingness to switch to Tk.