Mini 1090: Of Rogues and Curses ~ Game Over

[tanstalas]

I am good with a Mothrax or Xvart lynch at this point.

Like nocase, I am wondering where Troll's content is

[Ythill]

@mod: Replace Troll

Zorblag has more than 16 hours to post. I have a replacement waiting if he qualifies.

• Vote Count
  
  3 ~ mothrax (nocase, Vi, Seraphim)
  2 ~ xvart (tanstalas, inHimshallibe)
  1 ~ inHimshallibe (Zorblag)
  1 ~ Seraphim (Uite)
  
  Not voting: mothrax, xvart

• Notes
  
  
• With nine alive, it takes five to lynch.
  
• Deadline is Saturday, January 8th, 22:00 PST (GMT-8).
  
• D2 Prods: Zorblag (1), Mothrax (1).
  
• Overall prods: Zorblag (2).
  
• InHimshallibe and tanstalas will be V/LA until January 2nd.

[Vi]

*xvart bait goes here*

[Vi]

EBWOP: *as does Uite bait*

[xvart]

I already said she was my number two scum read at the time.

Then why would you even consider Vi? I mean, I would have approved of the Vi block given my view during the night, but considering RBing someone because he/she leads the town over your number two suspect?

I'm sort of waiting on Troll/Seraphim before casting my Mothrax vote.

[nocase]

why wait for them? he isn't at l-1.

[mothrax]

^what he said. That doesn't read right to me.
If you think I am scum you vote for me, I have already claimed so a quicklynch isn't an issue. It sounds like someone who is waiting for approval before his vote.

vote: xvart

[xvart]

lol? I don't think it really matters if I vote now or after Troll/Seraphim come back; but whatever.

VOTE: mothrax

[xvart]

Oh, and mothrax - you missed the important part of my post:

Then why would you even consider Vi? I mean, I would have approved of the Vi block given my view during the night, but considering RBing someone because he/she leads the town over your number two suspect?

[mothrax]

nagging suspicion=gut. I considered a gut rb on vi, but my brain won out.

[Zorblag]

OK, I'm done with break. Let me take care of the game that I'm modding right quick and I'll be back to look more closely at those two claims from mothrax and xvart. Offhand I don't love either one.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Right, first a couple answers.

As nocase has since clarified the werewolf thing should be done with once he's made his kill. It should just be a one shot vig enabler that only works on members of the Ungrika clan. I don't think that it counts as a curse though though I suppose I'll check to see if the mod would like to correct a misconception. There's really nothing in my role that talks about an alignment change being brought on by the lycanthropy.

For those who asked, I picked nocase because I had a marginal town read on him but didn't have enough in the way of expectations of his play to be sure so he made a pretty good candidate for the ability from the cop-side (given that it's more advantageous if I could hit town with it.) I also hoped that if he was Ungrika he'd make a kill that I'd like and I didn't think he had a great chance of drawing a night kill (that seemed much more likely to come to Vi, VP Baltar or I offhand with a couple other outside chances.) It turns out that he did make a kill that I was happy enough with right up until Mariyta flipped town so, on the whole it went as well as a vig shot from me would have (as I probably would have taken that shot last night if it had been an option) so we're no worse off than if the decision had just been mine to make.

@Vi, I agree that the kill last night didn't look like a curse offhand, but flavor-wise it also didn't look like something that would have had to have been arranged in advance. I'm not entirely sure what curses would look like. How certain are you that you're going to die rather than just being targeted? If there's a chance that I can stop this kill I suspect it's worth trying.

Actually, if you're sure that the kill will go through that's probably a reason to think that mothrax's claim makes more sense from town if we're just looking at the mechanic. If town has a protective role that's going to be balanced against a delayed killing role in a way that would use your ability to know who's going to die a delayed roleblock would do the job nicely (and my remove curse ability must be for something else.) That's especially true when paired with the fact that you knew that the nocase kill was going to happen but not who was going to be killed (which you couldn't have gotten mod information.) Had the roleblock actually worked you probably simply wouldn't have gotten any premonition or whatever about the other kill.

Scum probably wouldn't have a reason to bother blocking a claimed VT which is now what we're looking at. On the other hand, unless Vi is scum there would be a pretty good scum motivation for the originally stated N2 block. If I thought there were scum day talk then I'd be inclined to think that a partner might have pointed that out but we've got a pretty clear indication in rule 6 in the general rules that scum don't have day talk. As such, if mothrax is scum trying to take advantage of it he's doing so in a way that's far more clever than I expect him to be on his own. I just don't see what mothrax in particular as scum would be looking at in terms of motivation for making that change; I think it largely increases his chances of being lynched without any gain that I think he'd see. I'd still be surprised if mothrax was scum.

On the other hand, xvart's claim doesn't fit nearly as well with Vi's claim. if xvart has an ability that lets him do some commuting (and it looks like that's what he's claiming rather than hiding) but which he can't do every night there would be much more trouble having Vi get accurate results about who's going to be dying the next night. If the commute is optional on a given night that xvart was due to die I don't see an elegant way to give results. Assuming that I'm willing to believe that Vi is town (and calling one's own death the following night does a lot to move me towards being convinced) I think that xvart is probably lying.

There are probably similar issues with scum motivation for stealing from a claimed vanilla as there are with roleblocking them but in this case, we've just got the claim going and it's not changing anything. I think that xvart is much more capable of coming up with that sort of reasoning on his own that mothrax would be.

I'd like Vi to verify now whether he knows he's going to die or that he's just going to be targeted. If the answer is that he's going to die (which I think it is) then I'll be voting for xvart.

UNVOTE: inHimshallibe

Also, inHimshallibe should not use his ability today. He should instead use it tomorrow. Assuming that Vi is the night kill we know that inHimshallibe should survive the night. That'll give us access to more confirmed town voices later in the game than we'd get now. That should be better for us in the long run. So long as we can verify that the voices are actually coming from town (and I think that I know Vi and VP Baltar well enough for them to come up with some references to put in that should be easy enough for me to verify that it's them talking) we don't even need to be sure about inHimshallibe's alignment to gain from that ability.

And almost all of what I've said this post goes straight out the window if Vi is lying and doesn't die tonight. I don't think that it's a gambit Vi would go with as scum based on my experience playing scum with them but if I'm wrong and this all turns out to be unnecessary clever planning then I've been played nicely and give my congratulations in advance. Similarly, (but in something I can deal with earlier) if all Vi knows is that they're the night target then we're in some sort of middle ground and I'll need to re-evaluate.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Vi]

Vi, I agree that the kill last night didn't look like a curse offhand, but flavor-wise it also didn't look like something that would have had to have been arranged in advance. I'm not entirely sure what curses would look like.

Fair enough. If it's not the werebeer, barring some new death mechanic Night-kills are the only curse-worthy things left.

How certain are you that you're going to die rather than just being targeted? If there's a chance that I can stop this kill I suspect it's worth trying.

...
I wasn't planning on playing this card Today, but if you're claiming Doctor and we're arranging Night actions, I think it would be best if you knew.

It shouldn't surprise anyone to hear that I'm slated to die Tonight, given that I was making no secret of being a power role. I also learned before the Day began that someone will die at nocase's hands (so to speak).

There's one last bit that I'll keep to myself for now.

This last bit is--I actually don't know that I was targeted, BUT
*I

do

know there will be no kill Tonight, and
*I'm one-shot NK-immune
so I just connected the dots. Given that nobody has claimed a protective role that they have used and xvart has claimed he can't Hide/Commute Tonight (and even if he could, unless he can submit actions in advance the mod would have no way of telling me if there would be a kill) I believe that I was correct in assuming that I'm the target.

So to a degree I was lying and I won't die Tonight. But I hope you can appreciate why. Until now, the scum had no way of knowing their kill would fail, and would have targeted someone else N2. Confirmed innocent found, and while I wasn't counting on a Doctor we can stop THAT kill too if that's what your beer is for. Now, if nothing else we can still do the latter.

-----

You touched on what I was referring to here:

Bonus round, related to one of the three issues mentioned above:
mothrax-Town implies xvart-scum, although mothrax-scum doesn't quite mean xvart-Town. The pizza for guessing this one has a cheese-stuffed crust.

Let's run through the Night power claims here.
xvart -

Immediate

Hider/Thief/Whathaveyou
mothrax -

Delayed

Roleblocker
Scum (as said by Vi) -

Delayed

kill
Exe -

Delayed

(well, kind of) Neighborizer+more

One of these doesn't match. However, your claim messes with this logic.
Troll -

Delayed

Vigmaker;

Immediate

Doctor(?)

This aside, I do agree with you that xvart's immediate Hide and my ability to predict the kill in advance seem incompatible.

Unvote: mothrax

Vote: xvart

(L-2)

I really want to say something about a tidy Exe/xvart/Uite scumteam given
*xvart calls Uite out for scum early but hasn't said a single word to him since
*xvart said very little bad about Exe before being willing to hammer (this post is the first of it)
*Uite never framed Exe as scummy (other than hypocritical) and never even acknowledged the Exe wagon
*Uite's case on xvart was terrible but after Mariyta shows up he doesn't bother with him at all except to say D2 that he might kinda maybe be scummy
*Process of elimination as given here which nobody has bothered to discuss
and truthfully I MOST want Uite's flip but it can wait.

[inHimshallibe]

Finally, excellence.

...

BUUUUUUUUUUUT, I'll play along for the folks at home.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p2690823

This post clearly states you think (actually, the tone of your post is more like you

know

, which again brings Troll's alignment into question...), and yet you don't think there's any reason to ask nocase who he might use it on? You weren't worried he'd use it on you and that you'd like some last words, that you have some possible helpful information? You weren't worried he might use it on Mariyta, who you JUST confirmed as a Vanilla the Night before? You mildly suggest using it for a double-lynch, but give no hint as to it would be helpful to kill or not to kill.

Yeah, this stinks.

You are a kid in a candy store right now, aren't you? Youdodge the game all game (seriously, I can't even remember how many times you've posted "collecting my thoughts" or similar reasons) and now you finally latch onto something that can probably yield you a mislynch. But this something is so stupid. I can't believe you are actually trying to set me up as scum because I didn't warn nocase not to kill mariyta because of a less than strong confirmation of Mariyta's alignment? Especially considering how little of an impression nocase was giving about who he was actually going to kill.

This post clearly states you think (actually, the tone of your post is more like you

know

, which again brings Troll's alignment into question...), and yet you don't think there's any reason to ask nocase who he might use it on? You weren't worried he'd use it on you and that you'd like some last words, that you have some possible helpful information? You weren't worried he might use it on Mariyta, who you JUST confirmed as a Vanilla the Night before? You mildly suggest using it for a double-lynch, but give no hint as to it would be helpful to kill or not to kill.

First of all, I'm not the type of player that is going to lobby for killing someone. I made the suggestion about using it as a second lynch instead of leaving it up to one person. I also don't feel like wasting my breath with nocase and trying to convince him of anything so individually directive, especially now that I know he is crypto. And, as he displays later with his vote on me, it would have been even more of a waste. He was pretty clear that he was running solo on the kill. I also like how you minimize my suggestion to use it as a second lynch by saying I

mildly

suggested it. Do you not think that would have been a good plan?

So far I am the only person to claim any sort of investigation role, and a weak one at that. Regardless of my knowledge (or lack thereof) of other investigtion roles you think it would have been the best move to say "HOLD UP PEEPZ. NOCASE DO NOT KILL MARYITA EVEN THOUGH I DON'T THINK YOU WILL CAUSE SHE IS PROB WHAT SHE SAYZ CAUSE I FOUND NOTHING WHILE HIDING OUT AT HER TENT..."

Seriously, the reasons you are voting for me are total bullshit. If tans isn't getting lynched then I would be fine with an inHim lynch because you are obviously just trying to get on a mislynch for what you think are good original reasons so you will be in the clear tomorrow for lynching town today.

This is also lulz.

[Zorblag]

@Vi, interesting. That does nicely explain your reluctance to have protective roles stay hidden which was a bit surprising and the bit about how you're an auto lynch in a 3 player LyLo (or whatever it was you said; I should look it up but now I've got context that makes it unnecessary.) I think I'm happier knowing this now than I would be tomorrow as you being alive was going to look somewhat bad if it was unexpected and now I do know not to use the remove curse type beer. As it stands I'm comfortable still assuming you're probably telling the truth and working with that assumption for now.

To clarify though, did you learn that VP Baltar was definitely going to die or that he was being targeted after N0? It sounds like you're predicting deaths in particular with your ability but the mechanics are confusing enough that I'd like to have them as clear as possible at this point.

In other news related to the beer I've gotten the information that I don't know if the lycanthropy counts as a curse or not so I tentatively think my best plan for now is the following:

Don't use it tonight as it's not clear yet what it's for. If nocase does go wolf on us again tomorrow we use his kill in a more structured way as xvart suggested and then I probably need to use the potion on him either that night or maybe (if we think that the numbers would allow it and I'm not scheduled to die via Vi's prediction) the next night. That second option probably only works safely if we hit scum today or tomorrow and regardless of that, if I'm scheduled to die then I need to use the remove curse on nocase right away to be (relatively) sure it gets in. If nocase doesn't go wolf then I'll try the remove curse on whoever's scheduled for the kill (barring some further information that would make some other option more reasonable.)

@nocase, in the first of those cases I guess the assumption is that you've potentially undergone an alignment change (most likely to SK) without my knowing of that part of the effect but that the remove curse would fix that. If you really have been changed to an SK then this should give you a chance to regain your town win condition when you want to so the ideal way to act for you would be as a town day vig.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[inHimshallibe]

I'm fine with what Vi has claimed. If he's scum and doesn't want to use a kill to justify his prediction, that's fine by me.

[nocase]

i haven't undergone an alignment change.

also, hey, guyz, i'm a pr; want me to claim?

[Vi]

To clarify though, did you learn that VP Baltar was definitely going to die or that he was being targeted after N0? It sounds like you're predicting deaths in particular with your ability but the mechanics are confusing enough that I'd like to have them as clear as possible at this point.

Immediately prior to Day 1, I was told that VP Baltar would die overNight. Immediately prior to Day 2, I was told that nobody would die overNight AND someone would die during the Day due to nocase succumbing to lycanthropy.

I'm fine with what Vi has claimed. If he's scum and doesn't want to use a kill to justify his prediction, that's fine by me.

Precisely. As scum, I can't keep this act up forever, and the longer I do, the worse it is for my faction.

also, hey, guyz, i'm a pr; want me to claim?

...what

At this point, I don't see the harm in it. We have enough outed roles that it shouldn't affect overall power.

[Zorblag]

@nocase, I only want a more detailed claim than that if you think that it's beneficial to the town to know more than you've already said keeping in mind that we've got pretty good reasons to think that you'll be able to share the information tomorrow. You should be town anyhow so it's fine with me if you act independently in a way that coordinates with the other actions you know about. If we should change our actions based on anything you know then speak up.

@Vi, thanks for the clarification. That's what I was waiting for before

VOTE: xvart

This should be L-1

. No one gets to accidentally hammer.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[nocase]

um. okay. urgh.

[nocase]

hey, wait, why is inhimshallibe town again?

[Vi]

Primer for how to win this game is here

[Zorblag]

Er, hold on, perhaps I'm wrong and in fact I get to hammer xvart accidentally (though not regretfully.) It looks like we've got tanstalas, inHimshallibe, mothrax, Vi and Zorblag. If anyone has anything that needs to get said during twilight it might be good to say it (though if day one was an indication we might have a bit more time than in most games.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[nocase]

HEHEHEH.

[Uite]

Also, the sudden jump off xvart. You were basically asking me to hammer, and now you've pretty much backed off him. The parallels between the Mariyta wagon Day 1 are perplexing.

If by "asking you to hammer" you mean "pointing out your terriscummy relationship with him", by "backed off him" you mean "unvoted him for someone better while stating that he is one of only three people I want to lynch", and by "perplexing" you mean that you don't have any solid ground for an accusation but wanted to throw something out, yes.

Allow me to explain:

And I'm to believe that gandalphim is a better vote than xvart right now?

Sounds like a call to vote to me.

As for the backing off part, between your unvote and my post you only mentioned him in #775, where you show doubt about him being scum, though perhaps my reaction was premature. And the parallels between the Mariyta affair really are there. To wit: You ask me to switch to the top wagon both times, which would ptretty much amount to a quicklynch. Yet very shortly after, you leave the wagon yourself to pursue another. I've commented on this before, and I think it's scummy. I'm very tempted to vote for you now, but I want to finish my reread and evaluate what's happened before doing something like that.

Also, I am kind of a dipshit and just rechecked my pms. I was torn between vi and mariyta and ended up rbing mariyta.

Others have pointed it out as well, but really this is bad. Mucho scumpoints for mothrax.

It shouldn't surprise anyone to hear that I'm slated to die Tonight, given that I was making no secret of being a power role. I also learned before the Day began that someone will die at nocase's hands (so to speak).

There's one last bit that I'll keep to myself for now.

This last bit is--I actually don't know that I was targeted, BUT
*I

do

know there will be no kill Tonight, and
*I'm one-shot NK-immune
so I just connected the dots. Given that nobody has claimed a protective role that they have used and xvart has claimed he can't Hide/Commute Tonight (and even if he could, unless he can submit actions in advance the mod would have no way of telling me if there would be a kill) I believe that I was correct in assuming that I'm the target.

So to a degree I was lying and I won't die Tonight. But I hope you can appreciate why. Until now, the scum had no way of knowing their kill would fail, and would have targeted someone else N2. Confirmed innocent found, and while I wasn't counting on a Doctor we can stop THAT kill too if that's what your beer is for. Now, if nothing else we can still do the latter.

How convenient. You know what would give the exact same result? Scum deciding not to kill anyone, and then exploiting that to create a fake semi-confirmed townie.