Multiple Personality Mafia (Game Over)

[Llamarble]

Vote:FATE

May this Fate wagon be as productive as the last!

[Llamarble]

UNVOTE: FATE VOTE: TWOHEADEDBOY
I don't like THB's words "legitimately scummy" for Shado's actions. Sounds a lot like "Yay, I've found somebody I can look town by accusing and it sounds sort of sensible!"

I agree that frustration under pressure can be a towntell, but I don't think Shado demonstrated it convincingly. Mafuyu pointing out that he was fully aware of having less than half the necessary votes is a good point, and in general, I did not get much "this is BS!" vibes from Shado. But I find THB scummier for this than Shado because I see this as more of the same pointing out common ideas to look like a contributor without checking closely for how well they apply to the situation (as a townie actually trying to figure things out would). The back and forth misrepping accusations also feel like this to me.

Accusing people of lining up lynches this early in the game Also sounds like fishing for reasons to find someone scummy. I don't see scum expecting to be able to line up lynches at this point, so unless there is a followup later I don't see this action as "planning lynches." It looks more to me like pointing out a potential scumlink, which is useful content. Again THB looks like scum excited to have found something they can accuse as being buzzword X, fitting into the pattern of "Yay, I've found something to point out without looking bad!"

"(meaning he's still scummy, but scummy things you can forgive, which is TERRIBLE)"
Is another THB statement which felt to me like a player getting very excited (enough to bold and caps the statement) about being able to throw in a "legitimate" looking accusation edgewise against another player.

I agree with Ortiz that THB characterizing their actions as not-pushing seems innaccurate, though I don't see why scum or town is more likely to innaccurately characterize their actions this early on. Ortiz, why do you think this is scummy?

I don't see how Elli voting no-lynch is particularly scummy; he knows enough not to actually want to no-lynch, and that NL votes tend to do what other RVS votes do, which is produce discussion.

[Llamarble]

I don't see why everyone says OMGUS is scummy. If you believe scum are more likely to vote townies than scumbuddies, then OMGUS is legitimate reasoning because somebody voting you will result in a (slight) +scumminess update of their scumprobability.

Exe seems to be trying to produce content by tunneling somebody, but that works a lot better when accompanied by evidence.

I await responses from THB or other players to my THB case.

[Llamarble]

What makes me suspicious of THB is not pointing out scummy things, it's that I get a sense he is excited when he sees something he'll be able to grill somebody over in a way I've noticed myself doing when I've been scum.

I don't think it's reasonable to think of players lining up lynches at this point since the first lynch is so far off. It just seems like getting to work building connections to me. If later on they try to use the ideas presented there as groundwork for pushing a lynch, then it will look like lining up lynches.

My take on shado is that he's defending fine so far. I haven't gotten any clear scumtells or town tells off him yet.

@Tunio:
What motivates an 80% town read on Ellibereth off of 5 posts?

Ellibereth and Rena 'looking for their townreads' on Fate seems weird to me, but Fate is acting different from his play in my last game with him.
@Fate:
Why does the "Caps-Lawke-Alliance" lie dormant thus far?

[Llamarble]

THB has responded well and been contributing usefully.

UNVOTE

I do not approve Rena's calling Exe scummy for joining an RVS wagon; that seems like a perfectly reasonable action. Sheeping onto the shado wagon and pushing it seems a reasonable to move the game forward as well, though presenting accompanying logic would make it more useful. Playstyle is another null tell.
Exe is pretty null for me right now because his playstyle seems easy to fake as scum but also believable from town.
VOTE: RENA

[Llamarble]

He then goes on to vote Shado and claims it is not an RVS vote. This looks a lot like vote hopping because he doesn't explain why he believes Shado is scum and merely votes him. By doing this, he not only causes problems for his own slot but he makes Shado look bad because Shado can't defend himself for Exe's vote. Looking at his next post, it looks like this is just sheeping again because he QFT's Lambda's post - it seems to me that he was just waiting for a reason to come along for Shado's lynch that he could just jump on.

After complaining about Exe's lack of reasoning, why no explanation of the Gen vote / wagon call?

@Fate: POST MOAR I NEED MAH TOWNREAD ON YOU NOW AND THAT LAST POST DIDN'T DO IT FOR ME.

P-Edit: OH PLEASE ANGEL ARCHER, AREN'T YOU THE ATTENTION WHORE

An attention whore scum... Why, I don't believe I've ever heard of one of those before... Isn't the point the AVOID drawing attention to yourself?

Not having heard of attention whore scum doesn't seem to agree with lacking a townread on poemwritingFate.

[Llamarble]

A player defending fine without giving off scum or town tells means I haven't seem aspects of their play making it much more likely they're of one alignment vs. the other. The bit about lining up lynches was explaining I don't think that makes sense as a scumtell early in the game.

I'm pretty sure I never accused Shado of being scum on account of his NL vote, so I don't see where the double standard is there.

I still want Tunio to explain their 80% townread on Elli off of such minimal information.

Dayvig is interesting. Who do we think he should shoot?
I don't recommend Fate since from my experience Fatetown is very valuable. I'd prefer someone scummier and lessuseful.

[Llamarble]

I don't think Fate should be shot this early since he's one of the most effective town players I've encountered.
Either a major wagon target or scummier lurker would be much better options.
Shadowolf or Exe would be the most informative shots.
Otherwise just shoot your top scumread.
Dayvigging is definitely the right choice if it's an option, since it's basically an extra lynch without the scum having votes.

[Llamarble]

No millers in this brain.
Where is Rena? I want her responses to my case earlier.
VOTE: Rena

More tomorrow.

[Llamarble]

I have more time for this game now that cookie thief mafia is done.

Hydraheads disagreeing explains some of the weird early business, but I still think the case against presented against Exe looked weaker than a townie would believe in (my meaning when I said I didn't approve it). I also don't see where the "Tuni is scum" stuff is coming from.

Reading the Beefster/TMH business now.

[Llamarble]

Hrm, Fate's case on Beefster makes sense.
He attacks Exe, who was on the Shadow wagon, while saying he thinks Shadow is scum.
That doesn't point to a consistent perspective on the game unless Exe is bussing Shadow,
but Beefster doesn't ever mention bussing or appear to be thinking about it until he talks about Exe's logic against Yasuda.
Beefster did not say "Shadow could also be scum" but clearly said he thought both were scum.
The daycop business is just silly.
I'm also getting townvibes from many of the people on Beefster's wagon, so I'll go ahead and
VOTE: BEEFSTER
TMH does kind of seem like an insane man muttering in the corner, but the connection people are making between the two of them makes some sense.

Sheep Fate to Victory.

[Llamarble]

We're now at L - relatively small number, I think.

[Llamarble]

Some roles might be provable/worth keeping around; also some roles might affect best time to lynch.
Scott makes an interesting point about scum trying to arrange optimal nighttime. We should probably wait some amount of time before anyone hammers to try to avoid any particular personality region they're targeting? Talking more is pro-town regardless.

[Llamarble]

I can't actually. I don't see enough to concretely say he's scum but for god's sake if his conscience is so guilty that he doesn't dispute

factually incorrect

cases about himself that has to mean something, right?

Perfectly willing to hammer here, just lemme know when we're ready. I just got off work and I'm exhausted, expect a biting response tomorrow

What?
He doesn't think a whole lot of the cases against Beefster, then suddenly is willing to hammer him because Beefster didn't realize an inconsistency and therefore he has a guilty conscience??
TMH didn't seem that nutty in my other games with him.
Though I guess he did claim mason as a VT in another game (still going but we're both dead)...

Yes, getting all the millerclaims before bedtime would be wise.

[Llamarble]

Too much "I think X" and not enough "I think X because Y" from a lot of players makes reading hard.

We're now at L - relatively small number, I think.

Unvote, Vote: Beefster

L-1 by my count, feel free to double-check. Fate, Ellibereth, Lateralus22, CupcakePanda, Tuniogen, KitoMo, Llamarble, Exe, us.

FoS Cupcake + Llama

, if there's scum on this wagon, I'm leaning towards one of these for bussing. Especially Cupcake.
Huge

PoS/HoS

for Mafuyu, especially if (when) Beef flips scum.

Why?

@TMH:
I would think a player who reads cases against them to deconstruct them as town would be equally likely to do so as scum, so failure to do so doesn't seem like a tell to me. How do you feel about the fact that Beefster was attacking Exe while believing Shadow to be scum?

[Llamarble]

I'm sick, so I'm not typing out a full fucking wall.

Exe is correct about the scum slip. His first instinct was to defend a non-existant scum report. As if he expected it. That's confirmation enough for me.

QFT. Confidence of Beefscum just went up a lot.

[Llamarble]

I think it just ended

[Llamarble]

Yeah, I think it did. We were at L-2 and LL and Tunio added votes.

[Llamarble]

If there is anyone else who interacted with this clusterfuck last night they need to speak up.

Not done with catch up reading yet, but I jailkeeped Fate, which could also potentially have stopped the kill from either end.

[Llamarble]

This is some real insanity... how fitting.
Keeping the list together: (mostly quoted from SB)
1. LL gets a guilty on Rena when attempting to investigate Fate.

Since insane and sane cops are equally likely, a guilty/innocent doesn't actually mean anything without sanity information. That means the investigation on Rena doesn't make her more likely scum and doesn't really weigh into this.

2. Rena JK Mafuyu.

3. TMH roleblocks Rena.

4. Elli redirected Lady to Rena. This would make sense and I don't really see a scum reason to claim this.

5. Cupcake JK TMH.

6. Llamarble Jailkeeps Fate.

No NK means the scum either got RBed or tried to kill someone who was protected (or bulletproof/etc). 1 or 2 of the players in this mess may also be lying (there are a lot of claims here), and I don't know exactly how the RBs work. Do RBs have precedence over JKs or anything like that?

So I think either:
TMH, Mafuyu, Rena, or Fate are scum and got RBed or Fate was the killtarget.
(I don't see scum NKing TMH or Mafuyu)
I don't think TMHscum would have submitted the NK due to high attention meaning higher likelihood of being tracked or blocked. TMH could of course still be scum independently, especially since the order of the claims makes it seem like he may be lying to protect mafuyu.

Most likely scum roleblocked kill submitter imo:
VOTE: Mafuyu

Skimming LLD youb are STILL as fucking terrible as always if you think me being rbd makes me scum.

There's plenty of OTHER explanations for a nokill and I would NEVER send in the kill for my team.

God you're train of thought is terribad

This suggests he knew he got roleblocked last night, which could be because of the kill failure or due to any number of powers not working. I don't know Fate well enough to verify the statement that he wouldn't send in the kill. What do people who know him better think of that? I think Fate is town though due to general impression and his role in the beeflynch (my JK was primarily intended to use the protective end).

[Llamarble]

Math says there should be around 1 scum roleblock/JK type role and 1 town roleblocky role (maybe three total because of the choosing without replacement thing). So either we randomly got a TON of RBs or somebody is fakeclaiming. I still don't think TMH would have submitted a scum kill, but he could certainly be fakeclaiming (presumably hoping to incriminate Rena further after a guilty that he may not have realized doesn't matter or hoping to protect Mafuyu).

Rena's guilty doesn't matter; without prior knowledge of sanity a guilty verdict is 50/50 on anybody regardless of their alignment and thus the first use of a cop ability provides no information about the alignment of the copulation victim.

We should be careful not to let TMH quickhammer somebody in order to avoid being vigged.

Recommended next Fate personality: Angel Archer.

[Llamarble]

12 days is indeed a lot of time to kill until viggies start clarifying things for us.
But the chance of scum that act during the day is relatively low, so SB daykilling whomever the consensus is gives us a second lynch with minimal cost, which is pretty huge for odds-of-winning.
We also have more time to look at players we haven't analyzed much.
Kitomo said they endorsed a Fate Vig and that it was a terrible idea in their next ISO post. Explanation?
Most of the rest of his stuff looks alright.

[Llamarble]

Hahaha awesome, maybe TMH made the NK after all.
We could quicklynch now or wait for SB's dayvig time to lynch so we can use him twice. Either way gets an extra daykill tomorrow, yep?
Where can I find the action resolution rules? I'm still confused about what happened last night though TMH failing to kill is now seeming like the most parsimonious explanation.
I don't like it when players do what Fate's doing since it would be painful losing to Fatescum after a scumclaim. That said I've never had a player cheeky enough to do that sort of stuff actually be scum.

VOTE: Robocopter

Apparently he's not getting poisoned and in addition to his lurking his reaction to his own impending doom was to just wait for death rather than give reads and suggestions.

[Llamarble]

Mongoose looks town to me.
Robo, Mafuyu, and Alan all seem like good lynches though.
Robo for lurking, general uselessness, and lack of reaction to expected doom.
Mafuyu because that would explain the lack of kill last night well; TMH could have submitted it but I don't see why he would have when so likely to be blocked/tracked/etc.
Alan because Lat seems like a way more likely Scum RBtarget than town RBtarget and for general uselessness.

[Llamarble]

I doctored SB, so
A: I got roleblocked
B: I'm the useless doctortype
C: I actually CPRkilled him and the scum failed to kill again.

Vote: Mafuyu

[Llamarble]

Ah didn't know unguaranteed sanity was only between naive and sane.
So I'm not of the CPR or weak varieties.

[Llamarble]

Heh, I figured, but was kinda hoping whoever killed SB would come out anyway.
Guess they figured if you weren't gambiting they were screwed anyway and didn't come out.

[Llamarble]

Mafuyu was on the shadowagon, made more sense to me than TMH as the roleblocked killsubmitter N1, and was not on the beefster wagon. She was voting TMH during the beefster wagon, then said she wasn't voting him D2 due to him being vigbait (which to be fair he was). Also she expressed suspicion of Mongoose a long while before voting then hammered significantly later. These sound like FOSing buddies who aren't really under lynchthreat yet without voting them, then voting when the mongoose lynch was inevitable.

[Llamarble]

Scum:
Mafuyu
Yasuda
Tuniogen

Unresolved:
Magua
Robo

Leaning town:
Elli
Rena

Town:
Kitomo
THB
LL
Cupcake
Exe
GreyIce
Fate
Llama

Unresolved guys:
Magua's slot hasn't voted for scum or been useful and claimed a random roleblock.
Robo voted TMH D2 but hasn't been particularly useful.

I'd talk more, but I'm fine with the way things are going.

[Llamarble]

These sound like FOSing buddies who aren't really under lynchthreat yet without voting them, then voting when the mongoose lynch was inevitable.

This might be a viable strategy for scum deaths 1 and 2, but is an absurd gambit for A. scum death 3/5, B. Someone under good odds of being lynched, and C. Someone who has been heavily accused (by a vig-capable person) as scum, therefore a likely vig shot.

No. You're not reading correctly.

I assume this is what you meant by losing my initial reasoning?
I don't think Mafuyu's posting affected whether Mongoose would be lynched or not, and I think Mafuyuscum knew this.
Therefore I see no reason for Mafuyuscum not to add an FOS or a vote there.
I also still think Mafuyu is not unlikely to have been a roleblocked killsubmitter.

[Llamarble]

Your vote on Mongoose was the hammer at a time when one was obviously coming soon.
There was no way you could have done anything about the lynch at that point.
The previous FOS on Mongoose came when you were asked for alternatives to TMH and Robo, and was one line about him being defensive. You spent the rest of that post attacking LLD and Lateralus.
Defending a scumbuddy by attacking somebody else while weakly FOSing them and then hammering when it had already failed is absolutely a reasonable scum move.

[Llamarble]

Nacho here.

I lost access for a couple of days due to snow, meaning I didn't get the opportunity to send the kill in. Hayl's kill command was sent in while we were in personality two, so it didn't go through.

It isn't the wonderful things Grey imagines, just a bit of user-error on my part.

I'm pretty sure you're mistaken.

[Llamarble]

VOTE: Antihero

[Llamarble]

Yasuda has been near the top of my scumlist for a while.
Wasn't sure I'd have batterylife to elaborate.
Yasuda's only action toward beefster was to yell at him for being scummy but not pursue his wagon.
Seemed like "this is what you're doing wrong now fix it!"
No statements about TMH.
No statements about Mongoose.
And Antihero apparently thinks Fate is scummy for lynching lots of scum.

[Llamarble]

I jailkept Rena too, unfortunately. The previous night I jailkept cupcake.
I don't see much benefit to us from claiming things other than roleblocks though.

[Llamarble]

Okay, fine then. Maybe we'll see a way to autowin or confirm some more of us as town.
Fullclaim:
Cop 3 days
VT 4 days
JK 5 days (used on Fate N1, Cupcake N3, Rena N4)
Vig 5 days
Doc 4 days (Used on SB N2, so presumably I'm naive)

Cupcake claiming not to have been blocked N3 means
A: I got redirected or otherwise had my action screwed with
B: Cupcake's lying
C: Cupcake took an action which doesn't get a "You got roleblocked" result when it gets roleblocked.

[Llamarble]

Ah and Robo can go next.

[Llamarble]

Huh, I'mma die now? Since all I get after dying for real is a llama/goat:

Bah! Go town!

I would have liked a little warning and opportunity to explain whatever actions of mine you thought "didn't fit," since there IS a reasonable explanation and I have a good memory so I could probably have given my full train of thought where necessary.
And I would have liked to be around to find a way to win for sure after the massclaim finished.
Oh well,
Reads & ideas for making sure we don't lose incoming.

[Llamarble]

Gah I just realized it was really late (3 am) so I'm going to dump what I had so far and go to bed.

You apparently were a jailkeeper too, and jailkeepers can't get roleblocked. (Would this apply to a scum jailkeeper submitting a kill? That could deconfirm some players)

As for my Beefster vote, I think you have me mixed up with Kitomo. I voted Beefster for the "thinking the people helping you lynch scum are scum" tell, then voted him harder when he started assuming a daycop of himself had come up guilty. I also pointed out the weirdness of TMH's treatment of Beefster. I did unfortunately think Mongoose was town. I thought Alantwo was scummy but Magua seemed less so. I've found Mafuyu & Robo scummy for much of the game.

As for the CPR thing I simply didn't realize nonguaranteed sanity could only be between sane and naive. I claimed because GreyIce said he was watcher and asked for watch-ees to claim; apparently the scum decided the chances GreyIce was gambiting were high enough to not claim (or were lurking during the gambittime).

Out of my roles, vig is pretty provable; I don't think scum have an equivalent for regular vigilante, so a 2 kill night during my vigperiod would make me town.

Reads:
Nice thing is with only one scum left, any claimed action confirming a player as town actually confirms them as town.
Confirmed town, barring weirdness:
LLD (Mafuyu weak doctor)
Rena (Roleblocked by me and cupcake)
Fate (roleblocked by Rena)
Me! Though obviously you all don't know that.

Town:
Exe would have to have bussed his whole team in a row.

Probably town:
Cupcake shot TMH. And voted Mongoose. And voted Beefster for awhile then changed their mind. But they did govern maguascum.
THB was on the magua lynch and the Beefster/TMH lynches. Was against Mongoose lynch though.

Mreh:
Kitomo was on Beefster lynch

Scum:
Mafuyu
Robocopter

I think it may be possible to guarantee a win since we can use roleblockers to confirm more people as town.
today: 10 players, 3 confirmed town. Lynch Exe during supersaint period (?) (force scummiest player to hammer) & dayvig -> 7 w/3 conf. town.
nighttime a confirmed townie will likely die, but hopefully we can confirm another from night actions and have 6 with 3 confirmed town after nighttime. Then we just vig & lynch down to 3 confirmed townies and one scumbag.

So I think we pretty much are guaranteed to win unless something weird happens with a scum appearing as confirmed town.

[Llamarble]

Well played, town! Great setup & modding, Parama!
I think 5 scum was the right number.
As for the mystery of the failed scumkill N1, our team actually failed to submit a kill.
I did indeed jailkeep Fate and Cupcake and Rena. I didn't want to lie about JKing since the keep-ee can often know whether they've been blocked.
I also shot SB and Tunio and doctored Magua.

We were hoping to get a lynch between PDays 13-15 when we would have Mongoose's busdriver and my poisoner and a couple roleblockers.
The thought of GreyIce gambiting occurred to me, but I didn't think about the fact that I was essentially guaranteeing my death enough. In retrospect I should absolutely not have claimed since there was almost no way scum could win if I put myself on a must-die-eventually list.
I think one reason this game went so well for town is that none of the scum had a lot of control over who got lynched. I like to play influential scum, but I didn't manage to achieve that here.

I'm excited to see the dead QT! I'm fine with release of the scumQT though I suppose I should wait for buddy approval.

[Llamarble]

On Tuniogen kill / Rena JK:
I figured I'd end up confirming someone as town by jailkeeping them. I didn't want to lie about timeline since that would probably be bad long term and I needed to survive several days, and I didn't want to lie about roleblocking because that's easy to test. Tuniogen voted for _all_ the scum and was suspicious of me, while Fate/Cupcake already had protection promised to them. LL may have been a better choice, but I forgot Mafuyu's claim to have weak doctored her.

I too would play this setup again.

[Llamarble]

I see no reason anybody will object to sharing our QT.
http://www.quicktopic.com/45/H/M5iE5BP67Xx

[Llamarble]

Oh and I was curious what neighbors talked about.