Blackest Night Mafia (GAME OVER!)

[Katsuki]

Tell him not to kill you tonight, fate and I would be lonely if you got taken from us.

[xRECKONERx]

He won't do it..

HIS SCUMBUDDIES WILL.

OOOOOOH SNAP

[SensFan]

SSBF PREFERENCE FOR TOWN?
SENSFAN CLAIM OF SCUM COLORS?
RECK AND FATE ENDORSED?

UNVOTE, VOTE: SENSFAN

Can someone explain to me how the fuck I'm supposed to defend from "SSBF would send in Town, so Sens must be lying Scum!"?

[AlmasterGM]

SSBF PREFERENCE FOR TOWN?
SENSFAN CLAIM OF SCUM COLORS?
RECK AND FATE ENDORSED?

UNVOTE, VOTE: SENSFAN

Can someone explain to me how the fuck I'm supposed to defend from "SSBF would send in Town, so Sens must be lying Scum!"?

How about you defend your utter lack of non-setup-speculation content?

I'll comment on everything else once I muster up the strength to go read the last five pages or whatever it is.

[xRECKONERx]

AGM

Wagon Sens please.

[SensFan]

Gladly, AGM.

I'm of the opinion that we need to try and bruteforce this, and that scumhunting at this point is less fruitful than breaking the setup. As Reck has pointed out, if we massclaim, absolute bestcase scenario is that we end up with a subset of 7 players, 3 of whom are Scum. Furthermore, we'll lock all of the Scum into mini-groups of Colour claims, and then as more and more people die, we'll have more chances to lynch within a subset of players for increased Scum odds.

[Jack]

The quote that MoI claimed meant ssbf would never send in sk or scum turned out to say nothing of the sort.

setup breaking is boring and lame.

[The Stove]

AGar here.

I also thought it was obvious who was posting since we generally reference the other head, but will comply with sigging.

I need to confer with Zito on swapping to Sens. I didn't buy the whole "I picked anti-town/anti-town and SSBF picked anti-town/anti-town but I got town," sham that he put forth early on, and his posting has been contentless. He's more interested in taking out his anger against RC (the co-mod?) than doing anything productive for the town.

Our Starbuck vote is also good, for the record. Either wagon will be fruitful.

@AGM - No, we won't be crutching to lurk via hydra. I more am out of town and forgot about MS yesterday.

Ninja: Sens' first non bitching production has been "We should break the setup." When the bestcase scenario gives us 3/7 chances of hitting scum, out of a likely 9... it's NOT A GOOD CHOICE.

[SensFan]

Wrong, AGar.

Worst-case colourclaim scenario gives us 3/7=42.85% chance of hitting Scum today, forces Scum into a colourclaim today, and allows us to use flips to have icnreased lynch chances down the road.
Not colourclaiming gives us 9/25=36% chance of hitting Scum today, does not force Scum into a colourclaim today, and doesn't give us increased lynch odds down the road.

[Vi]

setup breaking is boring and lame.

But does it work?

[Kdub]

Jack, I know you're a man of few words, but if you're going to call a case bogus with no explanation, it is not furthering the discussion in any way.

Katsuki, I'm still waiting for those reasons.

I'm of the opinion that we need to try and bruteforce this, and that scumhunting at this point is less fruitful than breaking the setup. As Reck has pointed out, if we massclaim, absolute bestcase scenario is that we end up with a subset of 7 players, 3 of whom are Scum. Furthermore, we'll lock all of the Scum into mini-groups of Colour claims, and then as more and more people die, we'll have more chances to lynch within a subset of players for increased Scum odds.

The worst case scenario is that the mods put in a mechanic to punish massclaim, so we think we have broken it but in fact have not at all. I don't know much about dana as a mod, but I know Charlie is not an idiot because I am working with him on a setup and I know how he thinks about designing games. I can be almost certain that he will have given safeclaims in a way such that massclaim will not break the setup.

[Jack]

setup breaking is boring and lame.

But does it work?

Not if I can help it.

Jack, I know you're a man of few words, but if you're going to call a case bogus with no explanation, it is not furthering the discussion in any way.

I voted tans, and backed off because I got the impression he believed his crazy stuff. It's not scummy that's how the game works. You think people are scum and then get a town feel or sometimes not.

[SensFan]

Kdub, even assuming the Scum has optimal fakeclaims (whether provided, planned, or luck), we still get subsets of {6, 6, 6, 7} people, each of which contains exactly 4 Town. That means that today, we can get ~43% chance of lynching correctly today, by targetting the group of seven. This is as opposed to 36% chance of lynching correctly from the set of all players. Furthermore, as people gets lynched and NK'd, the number of alive players in each subset will decrease, but we will always know the exact number of Town players in each group. So every Day, we will be able to get better results from targetting the subset with the highest percentage of Scum in it, as opposed to lynching from the set of all players.

Jack, if setup breaking provides the best town win chance, that's the route we have to take. It's irrational and scrub behaviour to not take the best route to winning, simply because of some arbitrary notion of 'fun'.

[Vi]

setup breaking is boring and lame.

But does it work?

Not if I can help it.

Correction:

Would

it work?

[Jack]

Jack, if setup breaking provides the best town win chance, that's the route we have to take. It's irrational and scrub behaviour to not take the best route to winning, simply because of some arbitrary notion of 'fun'.

Well I don't know what scrub behavior would be.

But there's obviously no "have to". And it's obviously not irrational--wanting to have fun is not irrational, and "do unto others as you would have them do unto you" isn't irrational either, jesus-hater. Irrational is a much abused word. It means "not consistent with or using reason". But rational can mean "intellectual, thoughts and logic instead of feelings" and so people use irrational to refer to basing decisions off of emotions. But that's obviously a misuse of the word. It's perfectly consistent with reason to want to maximize enjoyment of a game.

Diving in the penalty box may give your team the best chance at winning, but would you really argue that they "have to" and that it's irrational not to?

Trying to break the setup is like saying to the mafia "you're too good for me to catch you by scumhunting".

Correction:

Would

it work?

I haven't read it very closely.

[xRECKONERx]

Starbuck is town and voting her is a waste of time.

[SensFan]

If you can seriously say "I would not want to try and break the setup, even if I knew it would lead to a higher town win percentage", then you're either Scum or shouldn't play Mafia.

[Fate]

inb4 playstyle debate

[xRECKONERx]

Fate can we play a minivengeful while we wait for these clowns to join us in voting scum?

[SensFan]

There's no debate. It's a debate if Jack says "Sens is wrong that it will lead to a higher town winrate, because of (a), (b), (c)." If Jack is saying "I don't know or care if Sens is right about a higher town winrate if we go that route, but I'm against it", then he must be unconcerned about town win chances, and therefore Scum.

[Fate]

k Sens thats cool. Do yuo have any scumpects based on play in this thread or just based on people's mafialosophy?

[SensFan]

I have multiple suspects. I don't think its in the town's best interests for us to continue scumhunting as if this was a Normal game, when we will have increased success if we limit our scumhunting to the subset(s) containing the highest scum ratio.

[Fate]

^Lol

[Jack]

There's no debate. It's a debate if Jack says "Sens is wrong that it will lead to a higher town winrate, because of (a), (b), (c)." If Jack is saying "I don't know or care if Sens is right about a higher town winrate if we go that route, but I'm against it", then he must be unconcerned about town win chances, and therefore Scum.

What if Sens say "self hammering on page 7 gives me a lower SK winrate, but I'm for it"? Does being unconcerned about the SK win rate make him town?

[SensFan]

If Sens is not willing to do whatever would give SensSK the highest winrate, Sens is presumably not SK. He could be Mafia or Town, and of course there's a significant difference between the two.
If Jack is not willing to do whatever would give JackTown the highest winrate, Jack is presumably not Town. He could be Mafia or SK, and there's really little difference between the two at this point as it relates to whether tha Town should lynch Jack.