Blackest Night Mafia (GAME OVER!)

[SensFan]

Anyways, I'm off to head to my dad's place for dinner and then watching Canada win gold. See you guys later.

[Vi]

Starbuck is town and voting her is a waste of time.

I decided to humor you and look for why you would say this.

...it's not great, but I don't know how good a scum strategist Starbuck is.

Unvote: Starbuck
Vote: Jacques

(L-something)
Since Toogs posted everything Jack has said looks bad.

Not interested in wagoning SensFan tbh.
Although SensFan - Where's your vote?

---

The issue with color claiming is that it assumes that there are four players to a color. Given that that was the very first thing announced about this game (long before the setup was actually put together) I don't think we can guarantee that that assumption still holds. If it doesn't hold, massclaim loses a lot of value.

[AlmasterGM]

AGM

Wagon Sens please.

Oooh I'm waaaay ahead of you in the "voting SensFan" department.

SensFan is scum because

1) Breaking is a total waste of time. The fiiiirst thing you should be doing when you create a game like this one is make sure massclaim doesn't break to stupid, obvious ideas. Yeah, maybe there's some obscure way to crack this, but there's NO WAY RC didn't foresee D1/D2/Dwhatever color claiming. Trying to this is just going to either mean 1) we accomplish nothing or 2) we get punished for it because we THINK we broke it, but we didn't and we shoot ourselves in the foot.

2) The fact that he is saying we need to break INSTEAD OF SCUMHUNTING is such a god awful plan I don't even know what to say. What happens when it tanks? We sit around and say, "cool, we just wasted the whole day, now let's quickwagon someone so we don't no-lynch?"

[xRECKONERx]

Starbuck is town and voting her is a waste of time.

I decided to humor you and look for why you would say this.

...it's not great, but I don't know how good a scum strategist Starbuck is.

Holy shit Vi, we can be friends now!

@AGM: I haven't conferred with Fate yet, but you're probs okay to join the alliance. 'Cause you've got your head screwed on straight.

[Fate]

Who the hell is Jaques?

[xRECKONERx]

Jack.

[Jack]

If Sens is not willing to do whatever would give SensSK the highest winrate, Sens is presumably not SK. He could be Mafia or Town, and of course there's a significant difference between the two.

Screw it. Hammertime.

Unvote, Vote: Sens

SensFan -Prince Humperdink - Serial Killer - Lynched day 1

[AlmasterGM]

LOL PWND.

[Kdub]

Jack, the difference between you and Plum is that she was already suspicious of tans for reasons unrelated to the single scum-team theory, so if she got a feeling that he really did believe that theory, that shouldn't have impacted her earlier reasons for calling him scum. And if, for whatever reason, she did get a gut feeling that he may not be scum based on his conviction of the theory regardless of those earlier reasons, why did she not just say so when asked about it instead of the vague, wordy non-answer she gave instead?

Kdub, even assuming the Scum has optimal fakeclaims (whether provided, planned, or luck), we still get subsets of {6, 6, 6, 7} people, each of which contains exactly 4 Town. That means that today, we can get ~43% chance of lynching correctly today, by targetting the group of seven. This is as opposed to 36% chance of lynching correctly from the set of all players. Furthermore, as people gets lynched and NK'd, the number of alive players in each subset will decrease, but we will always know the exact number of Town players in each group. So every Day, we will be able to get better results from targetting the subset with the highest percentage of Scum in it, as opposed to lynching from the set of all players.

There are a lot of assumptions here that things will work out in exactly this way. 43% vs. 36% is all well and good, but this also only applies to the one group of 7 on D1. Also, by mass claiming, we are helping scum to optimize their night choices, which needs to be considered as well.

[Jack]

Well, I find plum somewhat scummy so I'm not going to argue about it.

[MagnaofIllusion]

The whole Katsuki and Tans back and forth that starts around page 21 makes my brain hurt. I can’t say that I can recall seeing more futile uselessness in a back and forth outside of 1st graders …

NoPoint continues to be scum and I await Gud’s response to our latest exchange.

@Gud

– Nothing to say at 550 or 556 in defense of your scummy response to me? Scumtastic!

--

Correction: Would it work?

The only way to tell is to actually implement it. Based on your comments about assumptions not holding am I to assume you do not support it?

--

LOL PWND.

What’s odd is that I didn’t play in Princess Bride Mafia with Sens and Jack and I knew exactly what Jack was getting at, but Sens who was directly involved attempts to play it off. More scum-points for Sens.

--

CAPSLAWKALLIANCE = ALIGNMENT CONFIRMED MASONS, NEXT!

Just stop this stupidity … please.

--

There are a couple people on both leading lynches I don't really care for.

Who are they? Statements like this are not very useful, Panda.

--

Any sane man knows that scum have no motivation to run headfirst into a modkill, but he leaves that option "open" just in case he needs to wagon hop later.

Yeah, you seem to forget that Town has no motivation for acting like a spoiled child either. Oh wait, don’t let that little fact get in the way of your ego-driven response that amounts to ‘Anyone who questions my stupidity must be scum’.

So what exact alignment read am I supposed to get from temper-tantrums and play that you said was meant to be ineffective?

I’d like to know. Because I all have seen from you is FUCKING USELESSNESS.

[Plum]

Kdub: I don't know how to tell you that there are other factors besides whether or not my original case is still valid or not that can make me think Tans might not be scum. I'm sorry if you find this scummy, but multiple factors affect my judgement of scumminess. Tans speculated about a scumteam structure which a scum member would know very very well wasn't in play.

Let me give you a simple example. Let's say I voted someone in a game for, say, opportunistic voting on a wagon and I established why I found that scummy. Then suppose the player paraphrased his flavor - let's say it's a theme game - and I realize that, given my role information, he is a Town role, he must be a specific Town role if he has that information given my information. I would unvote him not because his voting looked any less opportunistic, but because other factors made me think he had to be Town.

Naturally the Tans info is much more ambiguous and much less conclusive. But unrelated reasons for finding someone scummy and for doubting the scumread =/= insincere scumhunting, and I'm getting ticked off at your continued insistence that it is, and I'm trying not to let it color my feelings on your own relative scumminess, Kdub, but damn. Urgh.

[Vi]

Correction: Would it work?

The only way to tell is to actually implement it. Based on your comments about assumptions not holding am I to assume you do not support it?

That question was there specifically to get an answer out of Jack.
(I reworded it because after seeing his answer I thought "No way he just said he would deliberately obstruct a massclaim".)
Considering I just pointed out why it may not work, no, I don't support it.

I don't really get good vibes from the MoI post, although that may have to do with the wallpost style exaggerating how little was said.
Right now MoI is with KK and so forth in that O.J. Simpson realm of "probably scum but not going to get convicted" so etc.

---

SensFan is scum because

1) Breaking is a total waste of time. The fiiiirst thing you should be doing when you create a game like this one is make sure massclaim doesn't break to stupid, obvious ideas. Yeah, maybe there's some obscure way to crack this, but there's NO WAY RC didn't foresee D1/D2/Dwhatever color claiming. Trying to this is just going to either mean 1) we accomplish nothing or 2) we get punished for it because we THINK we broke it, but we didn't and we shoot ourselves in the foot.

2) The fact that he is saying we need to break INSTEAD OF SCUMHUNTING is such a god awful plan I don't even know what to say. What happens when it tanks? We sit around and say, "cool, we just wasted the whole day, now let's quickwagon someone so we don't no-lynch?"

1) is fine. I actually did consider a method that would be better than a full color claim, BUT again if the setup isn't 4s across the board it won't work. Plus without people like Kast around it's dubious anyway.

2) I'm half and half on. Playing the setup usually beats playing with reads, but this is also

Day 1

.

The original question was silly, but the Princess Bride anecdote does make some sense.

---

I'll tell you what, and I probably should have done this from the beginning.

Unvote: Jak
Vote: SensFan

(L-7)

I'll work with the alliance (not the one in Kdub's avatar) while offering wise-sounding advice while supplies last.
CAPS LOCK UPON REQUEST EXCEPT WHERE NECESSARY.

U. Vote Count

SensFan (6) ~ AlmasterGM, nopointinactingup, xRECKONERx, Fate, Katsuki, Vi
tanstalas (4) ~ SpyreX, Plum, Kdub, Guderian
Starbuck (3) ~ Jack, The Stove, MagnaofIllusion
xRECKONERx (3) ~ KageLord, xvart, Dekes
Katsuki (2) ~ SensFan, tanstalas
Jack (1) ~ Toogeloo
Kdub (1) ~ Andrius
Andrius (1) ~ Starbuck
MagnaofIllusion (1) ~ dramonic
SpyreX (1) ~ Kublai Khan

Not Voting ~ Stephoscope, Kast

That should be right, anyway.

[Jack]

Reasonable and correct, but scummy.

p-edit:@plum's post

[xRECKONERx]

But MoI, Fate & me & Katsuki are all on a scumwagon right now.

And PS you're 100% right about Guderian & NPIAU. THIS IS WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING FOR PAGES NOW.

PREDIT: HOLY SHIT I LOVE THIS WAGON

[Jack]

That question was there specifically to get an answer out of Jack.
(I reworded it because after seeing his answer I thought "No way he just said he would deliberately obstruct a massclaim".)

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p2298343

[Fate]

My vote's doing more than all of your wallposts combined MoI

<3

[Dekes]

Can I make a proposal because I see that topic popping up every now and then?

Can we drop anything related to the ring situation until we have some actual proof that something will happen to them or there's another agenda surrounding them? The discussion's only distracting and not in the least helpful as of now.


Well, so I guess, I can stop wasting time on Katsuki. That mess can sort itself later out. Same goes for Reck.

I may have to look through Sensfan's Iso again, but if his recent proposition of color claiming has anything to do with his wagon, count me out. While this is a silly idea, because as mentioned, I don't think the mods would have forgotten about this scenario during the designing of the game, I hardly see any scum motivation for the color claiming, since it doesn't help increase scum's chances for hitting any PR's.
That would leave some SSBF alignment preference meta. Not really incriminating. Same goes for the Starbuck case though I see a lot of fluff in her ISO.

If anyone has a more convincing Sensfan case, I'm all ears.

It's noticeable that so many suspicion is cast against Guderian yet no vote on him. Let me help out here a bit:

Unvote; Vote: Guderian

Case is already strong enough, but I found out what bothered me with his initial kdub-tans statement. He asked both to give reasons for why the other is scum (why exactly, if he though both of them were most likely scum?), yet never followed up with this. Nice "pro-active" alibi questioning there.

[xRECKONERx]

Dekes.

Guderian is certainly scum.
But you should settle on lynching otherscum today with us.

[Dekes]

If anyone has a more convincing Sensfan case, I'm all ears.

And I can't say I really trust you, Reck. Though that's not that much of a problem in a two scum group game.So, key points that don't include anything color related suffice for now.

[ReaperCharlie]

Vote Count

SensFan [6] - AlmasterGM, nopointinactingup, xRECKONERx, Fate, Katsuki, Vi

tanstalas [4]

- SpyreX, Plum, Kdub, Guderian

Starbuck [3]

- Jack, The Stove, MagnaofIllusion

Katsuki [2]

- SensFan, tanstalas

xRECKONERx [2]

- KageLord, xvart

Andrius [1]

- Starbuck

Guderian [1]

- Dekes

Jack [1]

- Toogeloo

Kdub [1]

- Andrius

MagnaofIllusion [1]

- dramonic

SpyreX [1]

- Kublai Khan

Not voting [2]

- Kast, Stephoscope

With 25 alive, it is 13 to lynch. Deadline is January 21, 2011.

Would you guys prefer vote counts more often?

Or do you feel every ~5 pages is alright so far.

[Stephoscope]

Can I make a proposal because I see that topic popping up every now and then?

Can we drop anything related to the ring situation until we have some actual proof that something will happen to them or there's another agenda surrounding them? The discussion's only distracting and not in the least helpful as of now.


Well, so I guess, I can stop wasting time on Katsuki. That mess can sort itself later out. Same goes for Reck.

I may have to look through Sensfan's Iso again, but if his recent proposition of color claiming has anything to do with his wagon, count me out. While this is a silly idea, because as mentioned, I don't think the mods would have forgotten about this scenario during the designing of the game, I hardly see any scum motivation for the color claiming, since it doesn't help increase scum's chances for hitting any PR's.
That would leave some SSBF alignment preference meta. Not really incriminating. Same goes for the Starbuck case though I see a lot of fluff in her ISO.

If anyone has a more convincing Sensfan case, I'm all ears.

It's noticeable that so many suspicion is cast against Guderian yet no vote on him. Let me help out here a bit:

Unvote; Vote: Guderian

Case is already strong enough, but I found out what bothered me with his initial kdub-tans statement. He asked both to give reasons for why the other is scum (why exactly, if he though both of them were most likely scum?), yet never followed up with this. Nice "pro-active" alibi questioning there.

This is a terrific post. More later, but I should at least cast a vote.

Vote: Guderian

[xRECKONERx]

Can I make a proposal because I see that topic popping up every now and then?

Can we drop anything related to the ring situation until we have some actual proof that something will happen to them or there's another agenda surrounding them? The discussion's only distracting and not in the least helpful as of now.


Well, so I guess, I can stop wasting time on Katsuki. That mess can sort itself later out. Same goes for Reck.

I may have to look through Sensfan's Iso again, but if his recent proposition of color claiming has anything to do with his wagon, count me out. While this is a silly idea, because as mentioned, I don't think the mods would have forgotten about this scenario during the designing of the game, I hardly see any scum motivation for the color claiming, since it doesn't help increase scum's chances for hitting any PR's.
That would leave some SSBF alignment preference meta. Not really incriminating. Same goes for the Starbuck case though I see a lot of fluff in her ISO.

If anyone has a more convincing Sensfan case, I'm all ears.

It's noticeable that so many suspicion is cast against Guderian yet no vote on him. Let me help out here a bit:

Unvote; Vote: Guderian

Case is already strong enough, but I found out what bothered me with his initial kdub-tans statement. He asked both to give reasons for why the other is scum (why exactly, if he though both of them were most likely scum?), yet never followed up with this. Nice "pro-active" alibi questioning there.

This is a terrific post. More later, but I should at least cast a vote.

Vote: Guderian

And this is a terrific vote.

[xvart]

You are missing the whole point. You said scumSensFan implies scumDram, which implies scumnopoint, and you want to start at nopoint and work your way backwards? On what planet is does this line of thinking imply the best lynch order starts with the person that is contingent on two other unflipped people being scum? Is SensFan your buddy and this is a terrible passive aggressive bus?

It took me a little while to work everything out in my head. Plus, I'm always REALLY REALLY hesitant to vote dramonic since I wuv him and all, so I try to find the best way to NOT do that… but now I've realized it doesn't really matter since all three of them are scum.

Unless you have three cop results indicated that all three people are scum your original assertion still says you should lynch them in the complete opposite order since, despite how golden your reads are, you should be lynching people that are the primary and give substantiating reads for the other players FIRST. Not second or last. Additionally, your whole scum team, as I have said repeatedly, has hinged on SensFan irregardless of how likely they are guaranteed to be scum now in your eyes, yet you have never voted SensFan up until recently.

Hello? I'm not asking questions to entertain myself here. Explain this post:

See above.

Okay then, what contributed to the turnaround on dram? Just the bus you think you identified? I understand you have been working on this scum team for a while or whatever, but what about his vote makes it a certain vote? Pure meta? He hasn't ever come back from lurking and voted as town? Or as scum voted someone after lurking that wasn't his scum buddy?

[ReaperCharlie]

P.S. No more of this caps lawk alliance nonsense. I WILL modkill you.