Open 268: Raise the White Flag (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 3.03

bvoigt (1) - SnakePlissken

Not Voting (6) - andrew94, bvoigt, Chaotic Neutrality, Lindisfarne, rekirtS, silverbullet999

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

The deadline is Saturday, January 15, 11:59 PM EST (UTC-5).

Notes

silverbullet999 has been prodded (50 minutes early).

[silverbullet999]

early prods are cruel...

this is getting interesting
*grabs popcorn*

[Equinox]

*crickets*

[SnakePlissken]

Ok people I'll back it down for now.

unvote

FOS bvoigt

[bvoigt]

So you were deliberately misquoting me then?

Vote bvoigt

Lets get this wagon on the roll.

I just snipped out the long post you were referring to. I didn't change the actual words you wrote. If you didn't mean, "no one was scummy enough to be voted," (paraphrased), what did you mean?

[SnakePlissken]

No I did mean no one was scummy enough but in my view. Not from the general consensus.

[rekirtS]

I'm surprised there was no quick hammer attempt. Makes me more suspicious of Bvoigt OR Snake.

[Lindisfarne]

And why does it make you more suspicious of those two, rekirts?

To get the ball rolling again on some discussion: you said earlier, CN, that you disagree with roughly half of what I say. Can you enlighten me with what you disagree with? Some good old fashioned debating might help bring life back to this game (it's dragging considerably)

[rekirtS]

If Snake is scum the other two scum wouldn't have the votes to quickhammer bvoigt and if bvoigt was scum then there would be no quickhammer attempt again. If both are town three mafias could have jumped on it and won the game. Of course theres no daytalk meaning it would be impossible for scum to organize it.

Lindis who are your top scum reads?

[rekirtS]

And on that note Silverbullet you have any reads?

[bvoigt]

I'm almost ready to place a vote on Snake. There is a small chance that we are both town, but if so, then scum have already proven they're not going to try for a quickhammer.

I've already stated my case on Cookie, but for reference, here it is again. First of all, his ISO #7 is odd because he supports the Werewolf wagon, but doesn't vote for Werewolf. Instead, he votes Andrew for trying "to discourage the wagon for no apparent reason." Maybe he didn't want to be held responsible after Werewolf's flip. Then in his next post, he says, "You're willing to end the day? How is that not scummy?" and votes Shotty. Yet in ISO #13, he says, "I doubt we would see such a reckless hammer from scum." This isn't just a change of mind-- it's a clear contradiction of a specific point.

I haven't mentioned as much about Snake's play. Most of his posts have only been a line or two (which doesn't make him scummy, just more difficult to read). His first real content post is ISO #5, where he sort-of defends chkflip, and sort-of says he might be scum. He never really commits to a read, one way or the other, probably becuause he wants to be able to change his mind later. I also don't think his point about being misquoted makes much sense.

[andrew94]

... someone remind me who bvoight thought was scum earlier?

[bvoigt]

... someone remind me who bvoight thought was scum earlier?

Snake and rekirtS have been my top suspects all of toDay....

[andrew94]

yea, toDAY...

u changed between snaky and sriker all day, i believe u want to vote snake mainly because he voted you?

[bvoigt]

I've actually suspected both of them. When I FOS'ed rekirtS in ISO #29, I still approved of my FOS on Snake from ISO #27. I guess it wasn't very clear, though.

[Lindisfarne]

This ISO business has a tendency to make people lazy. Use quotes that was said and your thoughts on them individually.

And striker: most everyone. I'm leaning that snake is town, In this setup I don't see scum trying to bus one of their own at this point, and there is a good deal of snake hate. That much consensus is bizarre, especially since exactly half of you are scum.

I'm off for a bit after tomorrow morning, so im going to reevaluate posts and plop up my findings. I might end up going in a new direction. Logic is saying to stick with my original assumptions, but my gut is telling me otherwise.

[SnakePlissken]

So I unvote and the discussion dies. It would have made more sense for me to keep my vote on at least even if everyone though I was scum it would have generated more discussion. The scum are lurking and leaving Bvoigt to fend for himself by all accounts.

[Lindisfarne]

MOD

CN hasn't posted in 3 days in this game, and yet, he is posting actively in other areas on the site on a daily basis.

Life's distractions are understandable, but that is deliberate lurking.

Also, silverbullet is getting close to needing a prod...again -sigh-

Whoops! Sorry about that. I spaced out and forgot to check activity today. Thanks for the reminder. Chaotic Neutrality is getting prodded now; silverbullet999 will be force-replaced if he doesn't post in ~13 hours.

[andrew94]

re-do the Fos then

fos snake

[Lindisfarne]

Mod

If we get a replacement, the day deadline will be extended, correct?

Correct, since it's close to deadline.

[bvoigt]

@Lindis: Hasn't there been roughly equal support for a lynch of me or a lynch of Snake?

[andrew94]

im thinking one of you has to be scum....

[rekirtS]

That occured to me too Bvoigt, in fact CNs FOS list has more people suspicious of you then snake.

[Chaotic Neutrality]

MOD

CN hasn't posted in 3 days in this game, and yet, he is posting actively in other areas on the site on a daily basis. Life's distractions are understandable, but that is deliberate lurking.

I could give you a long list of excuses (some more valid than others) to explain my lack of posting, but I'll try to give you only relevant information.

1) I'm much less confident with mafia, and have lost a lot of motivation to play (especially this game). I was just recently NKed N1 in an ongoing game, and I screwed the town of NS's 5-man vengeful over and got myself lynched day one. Not only were my reads on werewolf and Chkflip both wrong, but I helped quite a bit to lynch them. I feel like it's my fault that we're losing, and I've become fearful that if I start trying to push a lynch again than I'll end up losing this game for us too.

2) We've basically lost this game already. Even if we lynch scum today, we also have to lynch scum tomorrow, which statistically gives us a ~17% of winning ((3/7) * (2/5) = 0.17). To make matters worse, we have about 5 days, and I still suspect almost everyone.

To get the ball rolling again on some discussion: you said earlier, CN, that you disagree with roughly half of what I say. Can you enlighten me with what you disagree with?

Sure, as well as finish this, and make a response to other minor posts I find notable like this one.

[andrew94]

why so persismistic
ur 17% chance of winning is if we random lynch,
and if we lynch scum today, we can see connections(cough)