Open 268: Raise the White Flag (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 3.06

Not Voting (7) - andrew94, bvoigt, Chaotic Neutrality, Lindisfarne, rekirtS, SnakePlissken, themanhimself

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

The deadline is Wednesday, January 19, 11:59 PM EST (UTC-5).

[SnakePlissken]

@andrew - it's gut feeling at the moment not based on any facts yet.

[themanhimself]

Ok, having done some ISO reading, basic vote-counting and examined voting patterns I really think it's CN. He's never voted for anyone who wasn't later confirmed town, he admitted that he should be a suspect and he was on both bandwagons.
VOTE: Chaotic Neutrality
PS If anyone wants me to respond to anything specific just post it and I will

[bvoigt]

I could just imagine you in a QT laughing with your fellow scums about just how clever this whole plot is as it diverts attention away from you.

You know, this actually looks like a town-tell to me. Scum would know that they don't have daytalk. Hmm....

[rekirtS]

Whose your next suspect themanhimself? Thoughts on other players? What makes CN more suspicious then say Bvoigt or lindis?

[bvoigt]

I'd say rekirtS is now my top suspect. As I've mentioned he just kind of hopped on the largest D1 bandwagon without providing any additional reasoning:

But onto the game, this is either really dumb scum play or some crazed gambit. Not sure how you keep denying this.

Unvote, Vote: Werewolf555

I just noticed a possible scumslip in ISO #17:

You would daykill someone and put us with 0 mislynches because hes annoying?

This post was referring to Shotty, his top suspect at the time. Yet he seems to be implying that Shotty would flip town. Plus, I was one of his strongest town reads on Day 2, but now he's changed his mind because I'm "on everybodies scumlist."

[andrew94]

Ok, having done some ISO reading, basic vote-counting and examined voting patterns I really think it's CN. He's never voted for anyone who wasn't later confirmed town, he admitted that he should be a suspect and he was on both bandwagons.
VOTE: Chaotic Neutrality
PS If anyone wants me to respond to anything specific just post it and I will

1) its lylo
2) im pretty sure he listed others who was on both bandwagons.

[Chaotic Neutrality]

When I get up, I'm going to preen over CN. I haven't looked deep enough into him this game. Some things have raised my eyebrows on him in the past, but maybe I dismissed them too quickly. I'll post my findings later tonight/this afternoon.

You have yet to explain any of it. Infact, you never once listed me as a scum candidate until just now, when I stopped posting.

CN's super lurking bothers me (and his suspicion list was incorrect)

I ISOed everyone, took their recently mentioned suspects and put them on the list. That doesn't guarantee precision, but I would think it's at least close enough to get a general picture of what everyone's thinking.

If anyone wants me to respond to anything specific just post it and I will

Lind, bvoigt, and myself were on both wagons. I've voted for Stef, shotty (now Lind), and SB. They're all still alive. I don't understand why I was cherrypicked from the group.

scum, who can win by literally doing nothing

That's not true and you know it. If the scum became dormant, they'd lose their influence over the game. Scum need influence over the game to flourish and prevent themselves from getting lynched.

The scum are lurking and leaving Bvoigt to fend for himself by all accounts.

The only reason you would know what the scum were doing is if you were scum yourself. Why do you act like Bv's town when you've been on his case all game?

[Chaotic Neutrality]

@Mod:

I'm requesting replacement. Something's come up in my personal life.

All right. I hope everything goes well!

[andrew94]

= =
sighs

[rekirtS]

I just noticed a possible scumslip in ISO #17:

You would daykill someone and put us with 0 mislynches because hes annoying?

This post was referring to Shotty, his top suspect at the time. Yet he seems to be implying that Shotty would flip town. Plus, I was one of his strongest town reads on Day 2, but now he's changed his mind because I'm "on everybodies scumlist."

Taken waaay out of context dude, weak. I'm not implying that at all. Literally the next sentences after are "Not because you think hes scum or not? First trying to policy lynch at the beginning of the game and now you would just randomly take a shot as dayvig? Why are you trying to waste our days?"

[themanhimself]

Whose your next suspect themanhimself? Thoughts on other players? What makes CN more suspicious then say Bvoigt or lindis?

My next suspect would be bvoigt and then lindis. CN ranks above them because not only was he on both bandwagons but everyone he's ever voted for has both died and been a confirmed townie. He hasn't voted for anyone that could be scum this entire game.

[bvoigt]

rekirtS: I don't see how the additional sentences make a difference.

You would daykill someone and put us with 0 mislynches because hes annoying? Not because you think hes scum or not? First trying to policy lynch at the beginning of the game and now you would just randomly take a shot as dayvig? Why are you trying to waste our days?

The first sentence still sounds like you

know

he'll be a mislynch.

[rekirtS]

rekirtS: I don't see how the additional sentences make a difference.

You would daykill someone and put us with 0 mislynches because hes annoying? Not because you think hes scum or not? First trying to policy lynch at the beginning of the game and now you would just randomly take a shot as dayvig? Why are you trying to waste our days?

The first sentence still sounds like you

know

he'll be a mislynch.

Its taken WAY out of context, you're reaching too hard.

When CN asked Andrew if he had a daykill who would he use it on, and andrew said "Shotty cause he's annoying". Andrew wasn't going to shoot shotty because he thought he was scum, but because andrew felt he was annoying. Hence me asking him "You would daykill someone and put us with 0 mislynches because hes annoying?".

[bvoigt]

I realize what you were trying to say, but I think you slipped and showed that you knew Shotty's alignment. Town, not knowing his alignment, would say: "You would daykill someone and

possibly

put us with 0 mislynches because hes annoying?"

[andrew94]

ok i read the whole thing over (Actually i stopped at page 4) and i think bvoight is clear.
notice he votes me in rvs because ' i claimed cop as vt in his newbie game (its a good strategy etc....)'.
later on, he was the first to catch werewolf apparently breadcrumbing cop. but did not vote him.
i always had a sus on him because he waited till yabba and someone to start the wagon. but now, it seems he might be careful due to past experiences with me?


and about the daykill, not sure about resirts but i said i would say that shooting shotty even if hes an innocent child would be a pro town thing to do

[Lindisfarne]

He's never voted for anyone who wasn't later confirmed town, he admitted that he should be a suspect and he was on both bandwagons.

Uhhh, take a look at MY posts. I've done the SAME thing. Why would CN be, in your eyes, more likely to be scum than myself?

you never once listed me as a scum candidate until just now, when I stopped posting.

Oh yeah?

CN has raised my eyebrows more than a few times this game

I had you in my top 4 suspects in my third post. I DID chose to focus on the other three, since I found they had more obviously scummy actions, and had a higher probability to be scum at the time, but I still found you suspicious early on. Then, in a later post about 10 days ago:

. You and I are fairly logical talkers in this game, which makes us a natural enemy to scum.

This was just a part of a long winded rant. I said that you and I are pretty logical talkers, and natural enemies for scum, and we would both be good NK targets. However, neither of us are dead. I then went on to say no one found us overly suspicious (since I asked who found the two of us at the top of their scum lists), meaning it isn't a ploy to have one of us get lynched since we were on both wagons. Why would scum let two people, who are good logical players, live through NKs, while not applying pressure for them to be lynched? Makes no sense.

I didn't just now start to say you are suspicious: I've pointed out since the beginning that, although I think you're fairly logical, you are still a possible suspect.

scum, who can win by literally doing nothing

That's not true and you know it. If the scum became dormant, they'd lose their influence over the game. Scum need influence over the game to flourish and prevent themselves from getting lynched.

It IS true! Look at how many games the scum have lurked throughout and WON! I'm sure EVERYONE can give you stories of it happening, because it isn't a rare occurrence. Regardless, we have only a few days left: What more influence do they need to acquire? The game is already pretty much in shambles. This is the perfect chance for scum to sit back, and let the town pretty much fall apart. This is an exceptionally weak argument CN, most anyone could dispute it. I'm surprised, you normally have better points than this.

@Mod: I'm requesting replacement. Something's come up in my personal life.

What. What? Ok everyone, check this out!

CN's last post in THIS game was at

12:47

He then makes a post in another game at

12:55

Here's where it gets good: he then requests a replacement in this game at

12:57

.

Two

Minutes. You mean to tell me, that in the span of two minutes, something comes up that causes you to have to quit a game that is in LYLO? I call bullshit.

[Lindisfarne]

CN:

CHK chases silverbullet, because he didn't really give an answer when CHK asked how silver usually approaches D1. Then, cookie hounds chk, stating:

Why are you so insistent on this answer? It doesn't seem like it would provide any reliable indications of silver's alignment.

First of all, it can be: if someone says they play conservatively, for instance, and then that day they throw out votes willie nilly, it is a contradiction in their statement. however, CN brofists cookie and FOS's chk just for wanting an answer.

Cookie beat me to the punch. Er, I'm late to the party. FoS: chkflip

Eh? Its a pretty ok question, and silver's original answer was funky. Why FOS someone for wanting to know a question that has some pertinence to the game?

CN then votes for yabba for voting silver, and then swings over and votes werewolf when he realizes there is no cop in the setup.

In CN's first five posts of the game, he either Votes or FOS's three people who are proven town

I can see where theman was going with his points, that's pretty nuts.

CN concludes there is only a minute chance wolf's post isn't a crumb. Awesome analysis, given that just a few hours prior you had to have someone point out that there wasn't a cop in the setup.

He then FOS's Andrew because Andrew wouldn't...join the wagon? Wut?

why do you seem so insistent on staying off his wagon? Strong FoS

As far as d1 goes, CN spreads a lot of votes/FOS's around (not even counting his first random vote) and pressures people for asking good questions, and not jumping on a stupid wagon. Hmmm...

[andrew94]

if cn gets replaced, he doesnt get the win. i see no reason that he would forfeit the win

[andrew94]

^if he is the mafia.

also, read my points.

also, i have beenn pushing lindis but no1 listening
also, someone is pushing 'logical talker' cn now

[Lindisfarne]

Sorry for multiple posts, folks: I get errors if I try to put it all in as one. This should be the last one.

CN:

"Shotty gave a warning, sure. That doesn't mean his hammer wasn't scummy. He made 3 posts before hammering; the first declared V/LA and willingness to hammer, the second simply said wolf is scummy, and the third was a second warning of the upcoming hammer. That gives

nothing

. No contribution to town, no reasoning, just a willingness to ride the biggest bandwagon. Even if that

is

his meta, we can't simply ignore every scummy thing he says and dismiss it as meta.

VOTE:

drmyshottyizsik

*

*Vote subject to change later tonight when I get around to re-reading day 1

OK class: logic 101. When you analyze an argument you have to assess it's

Truth Value

. Let's analyze this, shall we?
He gives a PLETHORA of reasons as to why shotty can be scum, he lists every thing he did (they were all scummy) and then disavowed his meta, saying we cannot ignore it all.

Now: CN wants to disavow shotty's meta, reasoning being that it all cannot be ignored (given that he pulled a lot of scummy actions). Now, to disavow the meta to help hold up an argument, must mean that shotty is superscummy to CN, and must be stopped: afterall, without the meta protecting him, essentially shotty is scum who wont help town, wont listen to reason and jump on bandwagons.

We can all attest these things are superbad

. HOWEVER:

CN THEN goes to say

*Vote subject to change later tonight when I get around to re-reading day 1

Truth value goes down the hole. CN made it sound like (remember, we are ditching the meta, which means shotty's actions can only be scummy) shotty is a near danger to humanity, let alone the game. If CN really felt that way: ok, fine, all the power to him. However, he then says he's going to reread and might change his vote? It means he himself didn't fully believe in what he was saying. He just busted in, threw down a vote and tossed up his lean-to reasoning (bear in mind, he didn't even reread the first day yet before plopping down his vote). This doesn't sit well with me.

Also, he starts to snap at cookie for defending shotty:

I doubt we would see such a reckless hammer from scum.

Are you really trying to argue he's TOWN because he hammered so ridiculously? I think that's the most ridiculous argument I've ever heard to keep VI scum in the game. "He's so scummy he MUST be town!"

Calm down buddy. That actually IS a valid argument. Scum tries to blend in to the game, not jump out. Hell, my first newbie game, 661, I hammered someone I defended all of d1. I then said "I wont give my reasons on it". I was a cop in that game and was afraid people were catching on to it, since I made a mistake in soft claiming. Sure enough, I lived through the night, and the next day, the guy who jumped me for my scummy hammer was scum himself. We won on d2. This is a valid argument, but one of several examples where CN pressures people for not going his way.

He then unvotes and votes Stefunny (Also proven town).
When I join in, him and I have some back and forth, and he makes the point to say "I disagree with half" of my arguments. yet never really clarifies on it.

NOW Here's a clincher:
I made my case on CHK. Barring an earlier vote on CHK in d1 that was, honestly, bullshit; CN left the dude alone. Now he votes him. and tosses up a paragraph on why CHK is a good scum choice in ISO 19. Odd, didn't he disagree with "roughly half" of what I say? Why is he so confident in a vote when I was the one pursuing him, especially if he isn't down with half of my points. His actions contradict his words.

And now we are onto D3:

Right now my top suspect is bvoigt. He's the third person on each lynch, and not only that, but both times as a follower, not a case maker. It really seems to me as if he is riding the coat tails of the bigger speakers whenever they are wrong. In fact the only reason he stopped making his weak case on Cookie/Snake is to unvote and vote with the wagon. I'd like to point out that Snake and Bv have been tunneling each other all game, without actually stepping up to the plate and nailing a case, and without seriously chasing each other down. Snake has refused a strong read on anyone all game. Not to get too far ahead of myself, but I believe Bv and Snake are scumbuddies.

First off, he is a copy cat. I had CHK as my first suspect, and he voted him. My second suspect on the list was Bvoigt, who is CN's prime suspect. Whatever happened to disagreeing with roughly half of my points? I find it ironic he says not to narrow down the list to just people on the wagon, and one of his prime reasons on bvoigt was his voting positions on the wagons. Contradictory. HE then goes so far as to say snake and bvoigt are scumbuddies...for tunneling each other the whole game? Bear in mind, the only negativity he had towards snake/cookie was snapping at him in d2 in for cookie not being down with a shotty vote. Where did this come from?

I'm pretty sure Lind is town, as (1) scum don't normally spend that much time making cases on townies and (2) he lead the lynch, quite boldly, something that scum wouldn't do, because naturally that puts pressure on them the next day. He's the only person I trust as town

WHOA THERE! He trusts me because I lead the charge against CHK? And scum wouldn't do that? What about shotty? You went off about how it was ridiculous to think shotty was town for hammering, you yelled at cookie for thinking scum wouldn't be so bold, yet you buddy up with me for being bold; when you would have condemned my predecessor for it? BUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUULLSHIIIIIIIIIIT.

At this stage he mentions possible scumteams and throws andrew and striker into the blender. What? Where does that come from? Here is something interesting for all of you:

Me

Bvoigt

Striker
Andrew

Yabba

Snake

Wolf

Silver

Stefunny

CHK

The bold are people CN has either Voted, FOS'd or had big suspicion of throughout the game. Interesting. Now he throws striker and andrew into the mix as possible scum partners with bvoigt? Where does that come from, he hasn't had anything scummy from those two all game! I call BS.

He eventually peters out, going 3 days without posting. His logic is silly. He is afraid to lose...and afraid to push for anyone in the chance he may lead town to lose. He is aware we only have 5 days left (at the time) and yet he was content to sit back and let the game fizzle, costing town the win REGARDLESS? I can understand the feeling of being on the losing team, but at least I try to be productive. He sounds sympathetic to town, yet his actions state the opposite.

He says he will respond to what points of mine he disagrees with, but NEVER does. Then he's gone.

-Poof-

CN bemoaned losing, but never thought to replace out until one guy voted him, and another was going to preen over his posts. I think he was on a personal losing streak, but was sticking with this game since his faction would have won. Now that people are looking into him though, his personal confidence has been somewhat broken and he isn't taking a chance to make a mistake and die. We have little time left, but CN is my most comfortable subject.

Vote: Chaotic Neutrality

[andrew94]

thats a bit far fetched.
cn is replacing out of all his games.
you seem to me to be making a huge post whilst jumping on the wagon

[andrew94]

inf act

vote lindis

earlier he said that he was on both wagons too and attacks themanhimself.
+ my earlier suspisions

[Lindisfarne]

You obviously didn't read my posts did you? Oh, wait...

*glances at my list of CN's voting/suspicions record*

Well that makes sense.

[andrew94]

i skinned it, and your most bottom paragraph ocupied me.
its still ridicolous

unvote