Mini 1102 - Rivertown Mafia (Game Over!)

[InflatablePie]

el simo (4) Umbrage, ThAdmiral,

sorasgoof,

Olinea

The first 4-player wagon. Out of the three unconfirmed, suspicious to least:Umbrage, ThAdmiral, Olinea.


Umbrage (5) chamber, Furcolow, ortiz1193, el simo,

Thirdkoopa

The first 5-player wagon. This is a very odd wagon looking back, because I had townreads on these players for a while (and, for the most part, still do). Oritz is the most likely to be scum on the wagon, followed by chamber (Baby Spice), el simo and fur.


Thirdkoopa (4)

Sorasgoof, Cyberbob

, InflatablePie, ThAdmiral

From my point of view, this makes ThAdmiral a lot more likely to be scum, being that it was a townie lynch and there are two confirmed townies on the wagon. I doubt scum would completely stay off of this wagon.

One VC later, I switch off and fur switches on. Not much of a difference, being that I don't suspect fur.


Thirdkoopa (7)ThAdmiral, InflatablePie, Fugitive, Baby Spice,

Sorasgoof

, Furcolow, el simo

Here's the final wagon. I know there's scum on here. Not counting fur and el simo (my townreads), nor myself, this leaves me with ThAdmiral, Fugi and BabySpice. There's also Olinea, oritz and Zednek.

I'm going to take out BabySpice and Olinea (gut read of chamber + gut read) from my suspicions. This leaves me with:

ThAdmiral
Fugi
oritz
Zdenek

I'm willing to bet there's one scum in the first two, and one in the second. Most likely, ThAdmiral and Zdenek, judging from ThAdmiral's placement on every wagon but Umbrage's/Z's. It's completely possible that Z threw his vote onto ThA in order to bus him, yes. It seems odd that he just came in and threw his vote on someone no one had really suspected. Probably to gain town cred. And yes, I realize that's exactly what I did with Umbrage -> 3K, and that also uses the "if he was scum" logic. Regardless:

Vote: ThAdmiral

Assuming three scum, I am guessing at a team of ThAdmiral, Zdenek and oritz. I don't think Fugi and oritz are scum together due to interactions, so Fugi *could* go in place of oritz, but I still don't like that post of oritz's from yesterday, so yeah.


Kind of starting semi-fresh, just looking at the wagons without remembering a sizable portion of yesterday's events (which tends to happen after a night phase, for me). So I'll have to read back as well.

[ThAdmiral]

My reads are:
-Town-
el simo - after the weird random-vote thing at the start posted well and looked to be genuinely scum-hunting
Olinea - asked good questions, formed reads and stuck to them
Fugitive - spoke his mind, came across as genuine

-Neutral-
Baby Spice - hasn't said enough for a proper read
Furcolow - said some weird stuff, said some good stuff. I'm not too sure if he is scum or town

-Scum-
Zdenek - replaced scumbrage, the unexplained +s and +t stuff was suspicious, and after initial burst of activity seemed to fade in to the background
InflatablePie - interesting interactions with ortiz, spent majority of day 1 attacking sorasgoof and 3k who were both town, as per his own argument being on the 3k wagon when it got to 4 makes it likely for him to be scum
Otiz1193 - interesting interactions with ip, wishy-washiness - I also found this:

I still don't like Olinea's play. He rarely posts and avoids all major wagons when he does. I mentioned this earlier but I'm pretty sure I got no responses from anyone on the matter.

Is there anything you want me to comment on? I realize the activity could be better but I think anything major that's happened I've given my views on it.

Which major wagons have I avoided? I've had soras pegged as town for a while and nothing else major jumps to mind.

Nothing specific. The problem is you play exactly like I used to as scum.

You post in a really protown style and then avoid voting for the people who are under suspicion to avoid voting for a mislynch, which makes you look more town.

For example, we had like 4 scum candidates at one point that everyone's attention was on, you posted and called Soras town and then voted Umbrage (who wasn't suspicious at the time.) It's just a style I'm familiar with and it makes you seem likely scum to me.

Note that he left his vote on cyberbob for the majority of the day. Not only was cyberbob town but he got up to a grand total of 2 whole votes at one point. I would say he was "avoiding voting for the people who are under suspicion".

[ThAdmiral]

vote: ortiz

[InflatablePie]

He agrees on Zdenek, calls me suspicious, but then votes oritz. I'm starting to feel better about a ThAd/Z/Fugi scumteam now, unless he's bussing both his buddies.

Yes, I am assuming we have three scum from here on out because it's much more common that 8:2:2 or 10:2 or 9:2:1 or whatever other combo you can think of. Stating this here before someone calls a future post of mine a "slip". Also, three scum is worst-case scenario right now, I believe (giving us one mislynch today barring another extra-kill), so I might as well think there's three.

[Fugitive]

He agrees on Zdenek, calls me suspicious, but then votes oritz. I'm starting to feel better about a ThAd/Z/Fugi scumteam now, unless he's bussing both his buddies.

Yes, I am assuming we have three scum from here on out because it's much more common that 8:2:2 or 10:2 or 9:2:1 or whatever other combo you can think of. Stating this here before someone calls a future post of mine a "slip". Also, three scum is worst-case scenario right now, I believe (giving us one mislynch today barring another extra-kill), so I might as well think there's three.

I'm too tired to VCA right now, because that actually involves thought, but I want to clarify something.

You're seriously calling a 3 man scum-team with with 2 deaths? That's a very best case scenario 8:3:1. You're really calling a 2:1 town to anti-town ratio with multiple kills per night? I'm not sure if this is a scum slip and you know there's a 3 man team and the setup really is that crooked or you're town and just off your rocker. I would say the setup is almost guaranteed 9:2:1 at this point, otherwise it's completely and utterly unbalanced toward anti-town forces.

Then don't get me started how lumping me into a scumteam based on other people's reads when we don't even have a scum flip yet is just absurd in itself.

I really REALLY don't like this post, but I don't even think it's scummy, it's just not good.

Onto my reads:

Looks like my CB read was shot to hell, but it sorta makes sense to try to make yourself a little scummy as a BG. And now 3 of my scum reads flip town and I'm doing something wrong. I'm going to reread the thread tomorrow and look at Pie's VCA to try to start reads over from scratch with knowledge of soras, 3k, and CB town. Also want to hear everyone weigh in on the two kills. I still think I can't be wrong on every read though, so process of elimination says Furc is VERY likely scum. Umbrage/Z was the other scum read that was left. Everybody else here was town/neutral, which I'm pretty obviously wrong on at least one of them. I can almost guarantee one of the furc/Z is scum. I'll be looking into those two the most heavily, and from a brief pass over the VCA I don't like Umbrage's votes. Lastly, Ad is looking scummier when more pressure is applied, I'm not so confident in that town read anymore, but I'll delve deeper into that tomorrow.

He agrees on Zdenek, calls me suspicious, but then votes oritz. I'm starting to feel better about a ThAd/Z/Fugi scumteam now, unless he's bussing both his buddies.

Could you please explain this logic to me, Pie? I honestly don't follow.

[ThAdmiral]

Did you not read the bit about ortiz doing exactly what he says he does as scum?

[ThAdmiral]

Sorry that was to Ipie

[Olinea]

Hmm.

Cyberbob's flip is the most astonishing to me. Not so much the town flip, but the fact that he died at all. Both kills on fairly scummy players? I can't see anyone consciously deciding to clear out a Cyberbob red herring so I would think he died protecting someone.

Zdenek's still at the top of my list due to "Scumbrage" (I like that almost as much as Umb

RAGE

) and his play. With the lack of Cyberbob as a read I really need to shift my thoughts since the rest of the players in this list didn't strike me as scummy. I still maintain my town read on ThAdmiral since I really like his scumhunting and chamber's play plus Baby Spice's play makes that spot town. I'd like to say there's one scum in Fugi/Pie and between ortiz/el simo/Furcolow I would place it as

el simo

,

ortiz

,

Furcolow

. Simo's attack on me for checking out Furcolow's play towards the end of D1 was nothing short of suspicious, Ortiz blends in well and isn't too transparent about his play, and Furcolow seemed to get more town as D1 progressed further and further.

I also would think it's 2 scum, 1 SK but I haven't ruled out the possibility of a vig fire. This is my first experience with a Mini Normal and so I don't know whether it would be more likely to have 3 scum + SK or 2 scum + SK. I've never played in a game with a vig before but if I understand my Mafia theory vigs should try and hold their fire until later if they're one-shot.

However, my number one scum read is still alive, and so,

Vote: Zdenek

[Baby Spice]

My thoughts would be 3 scum and a town vig. CyberBob seemed to hit a lot of scummy lists, and I was leaning that way on him, and so his death might be a mis-shot.

I like Pie's analysis, and Baa

Vote ThAd

[el simo]

Simo's attack on me for checking out Furcolow's play towards the end of D1 was nothing short of suspicious,

I never attacked you, I gave you scum points for bringing up an inaccurate meta to try and cast a player in a suspicious light. Do note I listed you as my only town read.

I don't think we have a vig, not with a body guard. I think 3 scum 1 sk with the body guard there to try and balance out the SK, I've played in set ups like this many times before.

Pies VCA sounds pretty reasonable to me, I can't find any reasons to disagree with.

Don't know why Cyberbob and sora were killed, although now that I think about it Cyberbob was playing a very docterish game. Sora though was my main target today and I'm certain I could've had him lynched, so this is a surprise to see, not only dead but as dead town too.

In light of last nights events, ortiz' rushed and opportunistic vote to lynch sora (read: town) yesterday is standing out for me, Cyberbob was pretty sure on ortiz too and now that we know he was town we can read his views as unbiased and in with genuine best interest for the town.

Vote: ortiz

[Furcolow]

I have read everything other than skimming Olinea and El Simo's walls, but I find them town, and am not going after them
Zdenek may be an easy mislynch, but I am very suspicious of the slot
I am also very willing to lynch most of the other people getting votes, because I love a good bandwagon

Thank you for saying I grew more and more town as D1 progressed, Olinea, I am basking in the warm glow of my ego right now.
I am not

quite

ready to put a vote down at this point, as my reads are a little bit more town-sided-deduced reasoning vs. actually knowing who the scum are at this point. I'd like to see more than 30 pages before I can really decide who is aligned to what.

In terms of Fugitive saying "IT IS DEFINITELY SK", I really disagree. With it being Bodyguard, I am more inclined to lean towards Vig/BG/Cop(or tracker/watcher?) style setup. Possibly Vig/Amnesiac/BG/Cop, but Amnesiac could be anti-town if in the hands of a player who liked scumwins more than town wins. I'm not really sure if that role appears here on MS...

Anyways, I am going to have to say we should probably no lynch unless we get someone claiming vig and leading a lynch (I don't believe it would be pro-town to mishit again, anyways) plus mafia might counterclaim *gasp* what an amazing concept

[Zdenek]

As far as what I think of the kill goes, my guess is that Cyberbob was killed by scum, since sorasgoof would have been an easy mislynch, and I think that sorasgoof was killed by either the SK or the vig hoping to hit scum. The vig would obviously want to hit scum, and SK probably would have too, especially considering that we lynched town day one.

The only person Cyberbob has a town read on was ThAdmiral, so if he died protecting anyone, it would have probably been him. Because of my own views on ThAdmiral, I doubt this is the case.

I agree with Furcolow that we should consider a no lynch today, if I was voting, I'd still be voting ThAdmiral.

[InflatablePie]

He agrees on Zdenek, calls me suspicious, but then votes oritz. I'm starting to feel better about a ThAd/Z/Fugi scumteam now, unless he's bussing both his buddies.

Could you please explain this logic to me, Pie? I honestly don't follow.

If ThAd, Z and oritz are on a scumteam, that means ThAd is bussing both of his buddies. Therefore, I think it's more likely that he's pushing a ML on oritz and the scumteam is you/Z/ThAd. But only slightly more likely.

You're also trying to belittle my reasoning, which does help support my thoughts of this scumteam, though.

Did you not read the bit about ortiz doing exactly what he says he does as scum?

Uh-huh. Did you not read the bit about how I think you're scum? I don't care what your reasoning is, or even if oritz flips scum. I don't like you (as a player in this game, not a person *hug*).

I also would think it's 2 scum, 1 SK but I haven't ruled out the possibility of a vig fire. This is my first experience with a Mini Normal and so I don't know whether it would be more likely to have 3 scum + SK or 2 scum + SK. I've never played in a game with a vig before but if I understand my Mafia theory vigs should try and hold their fire until later if they're one-shot.

A) Two scum and an SK, I believe.
B) Where'd the one-shot comment come from?

I like Pie's analysis, and Baa

Stop making me not like you (as a player in this game, not a person *hug*).

Anyways, I am going to have to say we should probably no lynch

No.

The only person Cyberbob has a town read on was ThAdmiral, so if he died protecting anyone, it would have probably been him.

THANK YOU FOR CONFIRMING MY CRAZY SCUMTEAM THEORY

[ortiz1193]

Otiz1193 - interesting interactions with ip, wishy-washiness - I also found this:

I still don't like Olinea's play. He rarely posts and avoids all major wagons when he does. I mentioned this earlier but I'm pretty sure I got no responses from anyone on the matter.

Is there anything you want me to comment on? I realize the activity could be better but I think anything major that's happened I've given my views on it.

Which major wagons have I avoided? I've had soras pegged as town for a while and nothing else major jumps to mind.

Nothing specific. The problem is you play exactly like I used to as scum.

You post in a really protown style and then avoid voting for the people who are under suspicion to avoid voting for a mislynch, which makes you look more town.

For example, we had like 4 scum candidates at one point that everyone's attention was on, you posted and called Soras town and then voted Umbrage (who wasn't suspicious at the time.) It's just a style I'm familiar with and it makes you seem likely scum to me.

Note that he left his vote on cyberbob for the majority of the day. Not only was cyberbob town but he got up to a grand total of 2 whole votes at one point. I would say he was "avoiding voting for the people who are under suspicion".

This is the 2nd time you've come up with a bullshit reason to vote me. This is a complete misrep. My vote was on el simo, umbrage, and soras during Day 1, who all had wagons on them. Olinea had his vote on Umbrage pretty much the entire day, who hadn't been a lynch candidate since the beginning of the game when I posted that. The whole point of what I said was that he would make a townie-sounding post, and then stay out of the action for most of the day. Pretty much the complete opposite of my play.

You called me wishy-washy again, prove it. Show me something wishy-washy I did because you're just making stuff up now. I'm pretty sure I already proved you wrong on this earlier.

vote: ThAdmiral

, from the looks of it, the scummiest people entering the day are me/Admiral/Z. Makes sense he would push me right off the bat.

Thirdkoopa (4) Sorasgoof, Cyberbob

, InflatablePie, ThAdmiral

Thirdkoopa (4) Sorasgoof, Cyberbob

, Furcolow, ThAdmiral,

These are the two wagons we can look at with the best chance of getting scum imo. Between Pie, Admiral, Furcolow, Admiral stayed on the wagon.

tl;dr

Complete misrep (again) to push my mislynch + VCA = scum

[Fugitive]

He agrees on Zdenek, calls me suspicious, but then votes oritz. I'm starting to feel better about a ThAd/Z/Fugi scumteam now, unless he's bussing both his buddies.

Could you please explain this logic to me, Pie? I honestly don't follow.

If ThAd, Z and oritz are on a scumteam, that means ThAd is bussing both of his buddies. Therefore, I think it's more likely that he's pushing a ML on oritz and the scumteam is you/Z/ThAd. But only slightly more likely.

You're also trying to belittle my reasoning, which does help support my thoughts of this scumteam, though.

Never belittled your reasoning on the scumteam itself, read again. That was the part that confused me and I asked for clarification on. I understand the logic now. I belittled the 3 man scumteam part, which brings me to my next point.

I COMPLETELY forgot about vigs. I don't know why it never crossed my mind, but I saw 2 kills and figured there had to be 2 anti-town forces. So forget my whole analysis on that

The only person Cyberbob has a town read on was ThAdmiral, so if he died protecting anyone, it would have probably been him.

THANK YOU FOR CONFIRMING MY CRAZY SCUMTEAM THEORY

BGs don't die when they protect scum, do they? I'll just assume some advanced form of sarcastic caps lock flew over my head on this one.

----------------

Now, Furcolow and Zdenek, my top two scum suspects, are both pushing a No Lynch? I have never seen a situation where a no lynch should even be considered unless it's guaranteed MYLO, and even then, lynching is probably a good idea since there is a better town:scum ratio. I don't like that at all. If the setup is a vig and 3 scum then the vig can no shoot in the case of a mislynch. No lynch = terrible.

Then Z comes out (see, I'm glad I waited for everyone to post) with absolutely no real content and a post entirely speculative, then pushed a no lynch despite saying his vote would be on someone who's very likely to get lynched. If my top suspect had the bandwagon, like he assures his does when he said he would be voting ThAd with a vote, I'd be on that thing in a heartbeat. I'm getting a cautious, knows-too-much, scum-vibe from that post. In fact, that post pretty much single handedly moves him to the top of my scumdar and sets off some LOUD red and yellow flashing sirens. Coupled with scumbrage's terrible play and voting habits (and Z's terrible voting habits):

ortiz1193 (3) el simo, Cyberbob, InflatablePie
el simo (0)
ThAdmiral (0)
Furcolow (2)

Zdenek

, Fugitive
Zdenek (2) chamber, Olinea
chamber (0)
sorasgoof (0)
InflatablePie (0)
Olinea (0)
Cyberbob (1) ortiz1193
Thirdkoopa (2)Furcolow, ThAdmiral,
Fugitive (0)
Not Voting (2)Thirdkoopa, Sorasgoof

ortiz1193 (2) el simo, Cyberbob,
el simo (0)
ThAdmiral (1)

Zdenek

Furcolow (0)
Zdenek (1) Olinea
Baby Spice (0)
sorasgoof (0)
InflatablePie (0)
Olinea (0)
Cyberbob (1) ortiz1193
Thirdkoopa (2)ThAdmiral, InflatablePie
Fugitive (0)
Not Voting (5)Thirdkoopa, Sorasgoof, Furcolow, Baby Spice, Fugitive

ortiz1193 (1) Cyberbob
el simo (0)
ThAdmiral (1)

Zdenek

Furcolow (0)
Zdenek (1) Olinea
Baby Spice (0)
sorasgoof (0)
InflatablePie (0)
Olinea (0)
Cyberbob (1) ortiz1193
Thirdkoopa (6)ThAdmiral, InflatablePie, Fugitive, Baby Spice, el simo, Sorasgoof
Fugitive (0)
Not Voting (2)Thirdkoopa, Furcolow

ortiz1193 (1) Cyberbob
el simo (0)
ThAdmiral (1)

Zdenek

Furcolow (0)
Zdenek (1) Olinea
Baby Spice (0)
sorasgoof (0)
InflatablePie (0)
Olinea (0)
Cyberbob (1) ortiz1193
Thirdkoopa (7)ThAdmiral, InflatablePie, Fugitive, Baby Spice, Sorasgoof, Furcolow, el simo
Fugitive (0)
Not Voting (1)Thirdkoopa

(Those are all the votals since he replaced in. Umbrage, just for the record, self-voted, then was pretty much on soras and Furc until he replaced out. Self-voting never has town motivation, as Z said himself when pointing toward ortiz's self-vote, and we now know soras is town and an easy target. Furc I agree with, quite possibly a bus on a lynch he knew would never take off since no one was listening to my flawless logic). Then, Note the consistent safe votes from Z. Huge scum-tell IMO. He never puts himself out there, content wise or voting wise. He's always on an individual with no chance of getting lynched. Z's eagerness to remain under the radar with no real help toward solid content and reasons; that solidifies my vote. VOTE: Zdenek I want Z forced out for some real content and away from his safe zone.

[diddin]

Votecount

ortiz1193 (2) ThAdmiral, el simo
el simo (0)
ThAdmiral (3) InflatablePie, Baby Spice, ortiz1193
Furcolow (0)
Zdenek (2) Olinea, Fugitive
Baby Spice (0)
InflatablePie (0)
Olinea (0)
Fugitive (0)
Not Voting (2) Furcolow, Zdenek

It is now day 2! With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch and 5 to no lynch! Deadline is currently Sunday, January 30, at 5:42 PM Central Time.

[InflatablePie]

The only person Cyberbob has a town read on was ThAdmiral, so if he died protecting anyone, it would have probably been him.

THANK YOU FOR CONFIRMING MY CRAZY SCUMTEAM THEORY

BGs don't die when they protect scum, do they? I'll just assume some advanced form of sarcastic caps lock flew over my head on this one.

I didn't mean that (and also, it's POSSIBLE, but really depends on the mod. I don't think they usually do this, though). He's defending Thad (new nickname go). Fairly obviously, too.

Looking more confident in oritz-scum trying to bus Thad-scum who was first trying to bus oritz. Fugiscum is possible still (I really can't choose D:) but I'm leaning towards oritz again after these last few posts.

[Zdenek]

Vote ThAdmiral

Well, it seems like no one likes the no lynch idea, but this fine too. It's L-1.

I think IP completely misrepresented my thoughts on CyberBob's death by remove the sentence following the one he quoted.

Fugitive, the only reason my vote was ever on Furcolow is because Umbrage had it there. I have never been suspicious of him.

[InflatablePie]

I didn't add it because it seemed hollow and tacked-on as a way of voting Thad later. On that note, thanks for bussing. And speaking of, Fugi, you can hammer your (possible) buddy now for towncred if you want.

I love segues.

[Zdenek]

I didn't need a "tacked-on" way to vote for ThAd. I've been suspicious of him since I've entered the game.

[Furcolow]

IF YOU ARE A VIG, DO NOT HIT, OR ELSE WE WON'T HAVE 4v3 MYLO WITH A MISLYNCH HERE
I DO NOT KNOW IF THIS IS A MISLYNCH
*CROSSES FINGERS*
anyways, we'll know if it's vig/sk tomorrow... if it's sk they will hit, and we won't lose yet, if it's vig we will not have 2 hits, unless they are very, very dumb or they actually hit scum... or else we lose.

I don't like Fugitive, as he offends me for always pushing me with "flawless reasoning" when I am town... WHATEVER

admiral lynch is a go

vote: Thadmiral

sorry, bro, but you're not acting like town-ad to me
i love you, though

[Furcolow]

if thead is town, though, i'm going to sheep his reads

[diddin]

Final Day 2 Votecount

ortiz1193 (2) ThAdmiral, el simo
el simo (0)

ThAdmiral (5) InflatablePie, Baby Spice, ortiz1193, Zdenek, Furcolow

Furcolow (0)
Zdenek (2) Olinea, Fugitive
Baby Spice (0)
InflatablePie (0)
Olinea (0)
Fugitive (0)
Not Voting (0)

ThAdmiral has been lynched! Flip and flavor coming later tonight. Until then you may continue discussion (except for ThAd of Course).

[ortiz1193]

holy shit quick lynch

[Fugitive]

Seriously? Not even waiting for a claim? Christ guys, use your heads.

Then, of course my two top scum reads change their minds from no lynching to quick hammer Thad as soon as I call them on it. Not liking this one bit.