Mini 1086 - KGB Mafia Game Over

[Katsuki]

Apologies everyone.

I thought I could help LMP out by replacing in when he needed the replacements but alas, I only added to his burden.

Since you guys are claiming though, VT here.

[LimMePls]

Battousai replaces Katsuki effective immediately. Thanks for helping out Battousai!

[Xdaamno]

I'm a VT. The high number of VT claims isn't that surprising, and I expect we'd see some more power roles soon. Popcorn to whoever wants to claim next.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm a VT. The high number of VT claims isn't that surprising, and I expect we'd see some more power roles soon. Popcorn to whoever wants to claim next.

Unwilling to commit to who needs to claim next? Scumtastic way to attempt to avoid making relational links.

[Xdaamno]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paranoia

[Empking]

Please popcorn.

[Xdaamno]

I would have preferred to see who jumped in, but if you're going to get your panties in a twist to make me go back and see who hasn't already claimed, I'll say you, Empking.

[Empking]

VT

Sens

[SensFan]

Cop. Volkan-Town, DGB-Town.

Goof is the last one left, I think.

[DrippingGoofball]

2-shot tracker.

Results as well as role already breadcrumbed.

No result on vollkan, then tracked SF to me and I wasn't dead, haha.

[Empking]

Why did you two target Volkan?

[SensFan]

I wasn't around N1, that was my predecessor.

[Empking]

No Lynch is pointless then so who's up with lynching the rat.

[SensFan]

This set-up doesn't make sense. It seems to be like 100% based around praying the Cop finds at least a scumbag or two.

[danakillsu]

Lynching the rat seems fine to me.

[Battousai]

Ok, just got my Role PM. Reading the thread now. Starting with the last 6 pages to be caught up with current events. But mass claim is interesting so I'll post something on that now.

Roles: 8 VT, 2 shot tracker, (possible naive) Cop, bulletproof

If we assume that scum fake claimed vanilla, then we have a cop, weakened limited cop, and a NK immune player. My guess on setup would be 3:9 with 6 VT.
If we assume that scum fake claimed 1 PR, then that person is either the tracker or the cop. In that case the setup would be 2:9, with scum being DGB and 7 VT
If we assume that scum fake claimed 2 PR, then they are the tracker and cop. In that case the setup is 2:9 and both Sensfan and DGB are scum, and 8 VT.

8 VT is unlikely, and 7 VT seems pretty high for current site meta, I believe. My guess is that both DGB and Sensfan are town, and 3 scum are hiding amoung the VTs (Battousai, MoI, pappums, dana, xdaamo, and empking). Chances for successful lynch today, based on just the numbers is 50%. Going off of the fact that town has failed to lynch scum, I would wager it's closer to 40%.

NL has been thrown around. Right now there are 3 scum and 5 town. A no lynch would push that to 3 scum, 4 town tomorrow and it is pretty obvious that SensFan will be NK'd. So we can either wait until tomorrow to find scum or we can do it today. Either way, our chances of lynching is the same (but waiting also increases the chances that someone else will replace out).

[Xdaamno]

Good post Batt, and welcome to the game. I agree with almost all of it - but it should also be considered that there might be a hiding town doc, as this game seems pretty rough otherwise. After a bit of thinking, I think this is a valid reason to no-lynch; indeed, our statistical chances of lynching scum are barely improved, but this isn't a reason

not

to no-lynch. Plus, if there

is

a doc and they target SF, we win big.

[Empking]

I disagree completely with Xdaamo. In the (next to zero) chance we have a doctor then scum will have a roleblocker. If we lynch today then there are more town voices to drown out the scum's votes.

[danakillsu]

Yeah, I agree. We should lynch today, at this point.

[Xdaamno]

I disagree completely with Xdaamo. In the (next to zero) chance we have a doctor then scum will have a roleblocker. If we lynch today then there are more town voices to drown out the scum's votes.

Unless you have any other reasons, your argument boils down to two points:

"The scum will have a roleblocker". First off, that doesn't support the idea that we should lynch at all. Just because there is a possibility the doctor will be blocked, this does not confer any disadvantage to nolynching and any advantage to lynching whatsoever. Also importantly, the idea that the doctor will be blocked is a very, very slim situation because not only does the roleblocker have to target the right person but the roleblocker has to exist in the first place, which is a further probabilistic multiplier that makes the situation ever less likely. But like I said, that's irrelevant.

"If we lynch today then there are more town voices to drown out the scum's votes." This argument seems sound at first, but quickly becomes ridiculous when you think about it for a few moments. If having a greater town:scum ratio is advantageous

given a fixed number of lynches

, then apparently town would have a good chance of lynching scum in a 3:1000 alignment ratio setup in three days. The extra element here is that the person who would die overnight is a player who is almost confirmed as town, and once again, this seems to make the no-lynch option redundant, because we do not have the advantage of being able to listen to SensFan tomorrow.

But here's where you need to think extra-carefully, so pay attention.

The advantage of being able to listen to a near-confirmed town player's opinions today isn't at all exclusive to the situation of us lynching someone.

We have the option to let SensFan say all he wants to say on who should be lynched, and then to follow that advice tomorrow (with the

additional

benefit that it holds even more weight if he turns up dead.) As a result, the problem is once again reduced to the simpler reducto ad absurdum form in the above paragraph, and a no-lynch is advantageous.

[Empking]

But here's where you need to think extra-carefully, so pay attention.

The advantage of being able to listen to a near-confirmed town player's opinions today isn't at all exclusive to the situation of us lynching someone.

We have the option to let SensFan say all he wants to say on who should be lynched, and then to follow that advice tomorrow.

You've played mafia before right?

[Xdaamno]

Well, first off let me point out that you just made the cherry picking fallacy by ignoring the rest of my post. This is why arguing on the internet is annoying, lol. But anyway, I guess you're referring to the fact that we probably won't heed his advice tomorrow? That doesn't make lynching the optimal play. It's just something we have to make a mental note to do.

[SensFan]

I'm tempted to vote for Batt for trying to undermine the Cop's results by this Naive nonsense.

[Xdaamno]

Oh yeah, I missed that. Strikes me as just be gratuitous though.

[SensFan]

Not only are all Cops Sane in Normals, but even if that rule wasn't around, the Mod would have to be crazy to think BP/NaiveCop/2shotTracker is anywhere NEAR enough Power for a 3:9 set-up. Already with me being Sane I really don't see enough Power.