Mini 1108 - Mutiny on the High Seas - Game Over

[SnakePlissken]

If your in misery why don't you self hammer?

[AurorusVox]

This is a dumb end to the day, for the record. We've had two claims and we're going to kill a third? Bad policy, town. We should have just killed one of the people who already claimed. I guess we'll see how it plays out.

Tell me about it. I'm gonna have a quick look to see if any one person has been on each of the Shadow-Chess-IS wagons. Voting chart pending...

[Umbrage]

I also would hammer IS (as much as it would pain me to do so) so we can have a lynch today. We will need the information from a lynch. I can only hope any night kills will be equally illuminating.

This is a dumb end to the day, for the record. We've had two claims and we're going to kill a third? Bad policy, town. We should have just killed one of the people who already claimed. I guess we'll see how it plays out.

QFT

I've got a bad feeling about this lynch. The wagon grew too quickly. It won't give us much information. But above all, IS reads like genuinely frustrated town.

[Internet Stranger]

If your in misery why don't you self hammer?

Self hammer? Why would I want to do that?
The frustrating part is that people are throwing this kind of scummy bullshit out there and no one even blinks.

I might as well try to play mafia with a bunch of bricks; I will write scum or town under them and just throw one when its time to lynch.

[AurorusVox]

Okay well, I've just constructed a vote chart and my vote analysis has yielded a result. We've definitely caught one scum here.

I'll share the chart so you can see exactly what I'm talking about: click

Scroll across so that you can see the extra information and Doombunny's column at the same time. Notice that as soon as Shadow claims, Doom votes Chess. Soon after Chess claims, Doom unvotes. He later revotes Chess but then soon after hops on the Internet Stranger wagon, putting him at L-2. This is by far the most opportunistic claim hunting behaviour out of all the votes that have gone through.

Others have jumped Shadow --> Chess (Umbrage and Britstep) after Shadow's claim, and a couple have gone Chess --> Internet Stranger after Chess said he wasn't a VT (Nero Cain, Smargaret and Wraith (with a short spell of Umbrage vote between))

---

With this in mind, in my opinion, Doom is 99% likely scum and Umbrage is one of his buddies. This should give those who think IS is scum pause; I have no doubt his wagon is largely scum driven by Doom plus one of { Nero/Smargaret/Wraith } or Shadow.* Umbrage has stayed off it since he doesn't need to hitch a ride - in fact, notice Umbrage flip flopping on whether he supports an IS lynch or not, he was clearly deciding whether his vote was necessary or not.

*There's still a chance that scum took a risky near-bus distancing gambit with the earlier votes on Shadow. In fact, considering that his wagon disintegrated so quickly after the claim - and considering Doom and Umbrage were the first two to unvote - I'm definitely not discounting the possibility of a Doom-Umbrage-Shadow team. It actually looks quite feasible.

[AurorusVox]

EBWOP: Oh yeah, also, where you see a vote is greyed out, it's because the person forgot to unvote so it didn't count. Just in case you were wondering..

[Wraith]

When did chess soft-claim non-VT?

[Shadow1psc]

Has everyone fingered Umbrage at this point? IS, CK? Everyone has been like "Well, I think X person is scum... and this is more prevalent than Umbrage over here, he can be dealt with tomorrow!"

If people are split pretty evenly between myself, IS and CK, but everyone agrees Umbrage is general scum in the background, I could go for an Umbrage lynch. Though, obligatory "What have we learned if Umbrage flips town?" question has to be asked.

[AurorusVox]

I claimed
not a vt
adjfioadsjfiojadfja
jesus H CHRIST

^most explicit here

Not exactly "soft" though

[Jedo the Jedi]

Even though you could have easily gone over some things at least a little (i.e. the AV vs. Umbrage debate and more than just "Umbrage's prove it defense is weak and he shouldn't be using it anymore"), I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt on this one as I can see where you're coming from with a townie mindset.

What would you have had me say? I have already stepped into that quagmire once, and I've tried to avoid getting into anything more with Umbrage. This new round doesn't look any different from the first. I can see how you would want me to respond to some other interactions (I think that's the point you're driving at), but I think part of the strength of the town is that we notice different things. If I let somebody shake-down smargaret because they think she is scum, they will do a better job of it than me (who doesn't) and I can benefit by reading their analysis later on. Besides, I can't respond to everything. My posts are big enough as it is!

Plus, I'm not likely to reveal too many of my reads at once because that's just added info for the mafia to evaluate who is a threat (and it's just WIFOM for the town).

Anyway, I'm intrigued by Vox's post/vote analysis. There may be something there, but I'm not quite sure yet. Votes can provide lots of info, but they also can easily be misleading.

IS, I would do you that honor, but I will wait a few hours. I want to soak up as much last-minute discussion as possible.

[AurorusVox]

Has everyone fingered Umbrage at this point? IS, CK? Everyone has been like "Well, I think X person is scum... and this is more prevalent than Umbrage over here, he can be dealt with tomorrow!"

More people have fingered you, in fact.

But I like how you're trying to distance from him at a point when its far too late to actually get Umbrage lynched. Where were you when I was asking those who supported his lynch to hop on his wagon a few days ago?

[SnakePlissken]

Aurorus that's some pretty good info (abiet a bit game anal) and I'm prepared to step off the IS vote for a bit.

Unvote

[Shadow1psc]

Has everyone fingered Umbrage at this point? IS, CK? Everyone has been like "Well, I think X person is scum... and this is more prevalent than Umbrage over here, he can be dealt with tomorrow!"

More people have fingered you, in fact.

But I like how you're trying to distance from him at a point when its far too late to actually get Umbrage lynched. Where were you when I was asking those who supported his lynch to hop on his wagon a few days ago?

On IS, who has a much more prevalent wagon. I've stated about 100 times that Umbrage is my number two suspect. Again, I merely suggest that if we can't decide between myself, CK and IS (people seem pretty divided), that nearly everyone

does

agree that Umbrage looks terrible, despite the current vote split. There's no distancing, and less people have said Umbrage looks town than have said the same about me.

[Umbrage]

FYI, the reason I haven't been lynched yet is that nobody's managed to come up with a reason I'm scum beyond gut instinct and tells that simply don't exist. There's always suspicion toward very aggressive, very pro-town players, and it has the same credibility as paranoid delusions.

And do show where I've changed my opinion of IS. This is what I'm talking about, lots of bark, but no bite.

Honestly, I think AV is more likely to be scum than IS. AV has been doing the exact same thing as IS, only it's far less obvious. There is nothing that IS has done that AV has not. I'm not saying AV is scum, just that if you think IS scummy, you have to think AV scummy.

[Nero Cain]

FYI, the reason I haven't been lynched yet is that nobody's managed to come up with a reason I'm scum beyond gut instinct and tells that simply don't exist. There's always suspicion toward very aggressive, very pro-town players, and it has the same credibility as paranoid delusions.

And do show where I've changed my opinion of IS. This is what I'm talking about, lots of bark, but no bite.

Honestly, I think AV is more likely to be scum than IS. AV has been doing the exact same thing as IS, only it's far less obvious. There is nothing that IS has done that AV has not. I'm not saying AV is scum, just that if you think IS scummy, you have to think AV scummy.

I neither see you as aggressive or pro-town. What is bad is the fact that you flat out refuse to put IS at L-1 and that reads as cautious townie/scum. But currently there are several people that are worse than you.

As for AV I'm more willing to say he's more closely related to Jedo. Jedo is scum so AV as scum wouldn't surprise me. My most confident reds are IS/Jedo and Chess/Snake and AV are on my short list.

[Nero Cain]

NC: why is Jedo understandable over the others you mentioned? Also are you seriously trying to get another claim prematurely? If neither Chess nor Shadow are scum (I assume you at least think Shadow is town), we already have (a) a claimed VT, and (b) an outed PR. All this near-lynch hopping sure looks like scum manipulation to out as many claims as possible.

Jedo is scum so its understandable that scum would A.) Avoid the buddy wagon as long as possible (yet he says he'll hammer while he believes IS is town) or B.) Try to avoid a town lynch (and b4 you say I'm flip flopping I'm just open to the possibility that others are scum.)

I also don't like your fear mongering. There's nothing "premature" about it. The guy was @ L-2 with 2 days till deadline. So what are you saying'? We should lynch him without a claim? Why don't you want him to claim? Should that be our town policy now that we lynch without claims?

[Umbrage]

What is bad is the fact that you flat out refuse to put IS at L-1 and that reads as cautious townie/scum.

IS WAS at L-1 for a while there. I've said I was willing to hammer, nobody requested IS be put at L-1.

[Nero Cain]

Well I'm requesting it now.

[Shadow1psc]

IS doesn't plan on claiming I guess. I find the "it's WIFOM" argument either as he's just gonna claim 'nilla, 'cause he is, or because he is in fact scum.

[Umbrage]

Fine. Clearly there's nothing more I can do for the town today.

UNVOTE: Jedo
VOTE: Internet Stranger

Time for a THIRD claim.

[Internet Stranger]

I love how Shadow reiterates my point while still painting me with the scum brush.

I will never claim.

N E V E R

[Nero Cain]

^^^^^^^^^
scum

[Shadow1psc]

I love how Shadow reiterates my point while still painting me with the scum brush.

I will never claim.

N E V E R

Which is anti-town. unless you're power, and then you're still anti town, because we don't lynch claimed power D1. Either way, you still look like scum.

[Jedo the Jedi]

Jedo is scum so its understandable that scum would A.) Avoid the buddy wagon as long as possible (yet he says he'll hammer while he believes IS is town) or B.) Try to avoid a town lynch (and b4 you say I'm flip flopping I'm just open to the possibility that others are scum.)

I believe IS to be town, that's why I wouldn't vote for him, but since we need a lynch today (for the info of comparisons), I would hammer him to ensure we have a lynch. Are you going to pick on bri for the same reason?

Anyway, we need to lynch someone because a no-lynch is no good to anyone except those scummy bastards. I'll support the same people I have already mentioned those being Umbrage, Shadow and Chesskid. If we get to within an hour or the phase ending and IS needs a hammer then I'll do it but I'm not going to until then just because it's there. I still think IS is town after all.

I don't understand B. Of course I want to avoid lynching a town person...wait for it...because that's unhelpful to town.

[Jedo the Jedi]

We're all in for a world of hell. Time to open Pandora's box.

unvote, vote Internet Stranger