Mini 1090: Of Rogues and Curses ~ Game Over

[tanstalas]

This post is horrible. The AtE is noted, but what's worse is that you're setting up a lynch with

very

faulty logic. Consider this: if Mothrax is shot and he is scum, we win yay, but if he's not, that means that he really did block me, and I couldn't possibly have killed Vi, which pretty much confirms me as town. So lynching me then would be a demonstrably bad idea.

Except there is that thing floating around where it looks like Vi died from the flu.. however I do see your point. Well, I am blocked for tonight, so if not you or I for the lynch then who would you recommend if killing Mothrax doesn't end the game?

[tanstalas]

@Uite - How many scum do you think are still in the game?

[mothrax]

It is fairly clear that my flip is necessary to the game at this point.
@inhim: does your daykill resolve instantly or at twilight?

My proposal: Daykill me. I will flip town, Uite will be cleared. I suggest looking to troll after that. if the game is not over by then, when tomorrow comes if there was a kill, tans is also cleared which gives us to confirmed town to work with. At that point it will be a 4 person game. If both tanstalas and uite are cleared, I would look to nocase, as he could easily be a mafia rolecop. His is the claim that sticks out to me as not being inherintly town (other than zorblag).

[inHimshallibe]

It is fairly clear that my flip is necessary to the game at this point.
@inhim: does your daykill resolve instantly or at twilight?

My proposal: Daykill me. I will flip town, Uite will be cleared. I suggest looking to troll after that. if the game is not over by then, when tomorrow comes if there was a kill, tans is also cleared which gives us to confirmed town to work with. At that point it will be a 4 person game. If both tanstalas and uite are cleared, I would look to nocase, as he could easily be a mafia rolecop. His is the claim that sticks out to me as not being inherintly town (other than zorblag).

See, this makes me think you're town, whereas Uite's unwillingness to let PoE happen makes me think he's scum.

If Troll is town, nocase is confirmed by Troll's role.

OK, so kill mothrax, lynch Troll, wait for Night to happen. If there's a kill, tanstalas and the remainder of I/nocase can lynch Uite. If there's not a kill, it's tanstalas.

Actually: mothrax, can you confirm that your roleblock will occur even if you die?

[nocase]

@inhimshallibe

, could you please go into more detail about the pgo aspect? does it only stop kills? also, is it only effective at night or does it also count during the day?

so, to state the obvious:

• a. inhimshallibe is scum and lolol.
  b. inhimshallibe is town and there are four mafiosi.
  c. inhimshallibe is town, there are three mafiosi, and the remaining mafioso is the guy who no-scoped jfk.

role claims:

• vanilla townies: 2 alive, 3 dead.
  town prs: 4 alive, 1 dead.
  mafia goons: 1 dead/confirmed.
  mafia prs: 1 dead/confirmed.

town power roles

flavor cop. immediate. nocase.

INVESTIGATIVE.

roleblocker. delayed. mothrax.

BLOCKING.

vig/bomb (one shot), temporary reviver (one shot). immediate. inhimshallibe.

KILLING

,

DISTRIBUTIVE

.
inventor effective only on town (one shot), rolestopper effective only on town (one shot). immediate. zorblag.

INVESTIGATIVE

,

BLOCKING

,

KILLING

,

DISTRIBUTIVE

.
kill predictor. immediate. vi.

INVESTIGATIVE.

known scum roles

recruiter into the mafia or a scum-occupied neighborhood (?). exe.
vanilla. xvart.

so basically we've got a straight flavor cop (which is beginning to look like it functions as a regular cop), an investigative inventor who is also a rolestopper, a kill predictor who can confirm invention (and who can absolutely ensure that the cop outs reports before getting killed), a delayed roleblocker, and a one-shot vig who acts as a bomb if he doesn't use his shot and who can also call in a dead player to make a post.

this goes up against a vanilla goon, a recruiter whose role name hints at no other abilities, and one or two other roles, at least one of which must be a roleblocker or godfather.

three investigative roles of some sort, a roleblocker, zero millers out of three dead vanilla townies and two more vt claims, an gun inventor and rolestopper that can't distribute guns to scum, and a one-shot vig and semi-resurrector that can't scum can't safely knock out without taking a loss, AND THE DELAYED FUNCTION OF NIGHT KILLS MEANS THAT THE MAFIA CANNOT QUICKLY REACT TO NEWLY DISCOVERED THREATS.

FZCK.

inhimshallibe should use his shot today. the only way our two remaining vt claims can both be scum is if they have brick-shitting roles, so they're off the table for the shot, and they're probably off the table for the lynch, too. if mothrax is town then we should take a long hard look at troll and inhimshallibe. i could absolutely see a scum-sided gun distributor, especially since he can't distribute to scum, and the curse may equate with a protective or rolestopping ability that targets teammates. a scum-sided day vig is also exceedingly plausible, and day vig is a simple ability so it's exceedingly plausible that it fits neatly in with another anti-town ability.

if we shoot or lynch a pr claim and the player flips scum and the game doesn't end then that would be the time to take uite and mothrax more seriously.

i need to mull over this some more.

unvote.

[Uite]

Well, I am blocked for tonight, so if not you or I for the lynch then who would you recommend if killing Mothrax doesn't end the game?

I'm not sure. You and Mothrax are my two biggest suspects at this point. I'm not entirely sure that inHim is trustworthy though.

@Uite - How many scum do you think are still in the game?

I answered this already. I think there's one scum left.

See, this makes me think you're town, whereas Uite's unwillingness to let PoE happen makes me think he's scum.

How am I unwilling to let PoE happen? Seriously, how have I said anything on the subject since we PoE'd Seraphim?

OK, so kill mothrax, lynch Troll, wait for Night to happen. If there's a kill, tanstalas and the remainder of I/nocase can lynch Uite. If there's not a kill, it's tanstalas.

Again with the faulty logic. If Tanstalas can be cleared on account of a block, why can't I? Going along with Tans's bad logic and contradicting yourself in the process, while making up stuff to accuse me isn't making you look good.

[nocase]

uite is off the table for the shot so quit making fun of him, assholes.

[inHimshallibe]

If I am killed or hammered and I have NOT used my daykill, the killer will be DOOM-ed the same as if I had targeted them during the day.

My daykill is not immediate, it takes seven RL days to go off.

The only two I will consider for my shot are mothrax/Troll, because they are PRs of varying suspicion that can confirm/condemn other players.

@Uite: My logic is not faulty - it is all based off of my interpretation of Vi's death, which I think is a very strong one. In my eyes, you thought your ticket to victory was written and now that we have a pretty solid plan to effectively guarantee a Town win (by PoE), you're starting to throw up muck every which way.

[mothrax]

It is fairly clear that my flip is necessary to the game at this point.
@inhim: does your daykill resolve instantly or at twilight?

My proposal: Daykill me. I will flip town, Uite will be cleared. I suggest looking to troll after that. if the game is not over by then, when tomorrow comes if there was a kill, tans is also cleared which gives us to confirmed town to work with. At that point it will be a 4 person game. If both tanstalas and uite are cleared, I would look to nocase, as he could easily be a mafia rolecop. His is the claim that sticks out to me as not being inherintly town (other than zorblag).

See, this makes me think you're town, whereas Uite's unwillingness to let PoE happen makes me think he's scum.

If Troll is town, nocase is confirmed by Troll's role.

OK, so kill mothrax, lynch Troll, wait for Night to happen. If there's a kill, tanstalas and the remainder of I/nocase can lynch Uite. If there's not a kill, it's tanstalas.

Actually: mothrax, can you confirm that your roleblock will occur even if you die?

[mothrax]

really... I meant to quote and respond not just quote...
A1) meh, I am less concerned about my own survival and more concerned about the town winning. I wish it could be done otherwise, but it seems because of my previous play the only way to convince you guys is with my flip. Since my flip potentially clears some folks, I am down with it.

B2) I will ask the mod.

[mothrax]

so mod confirmation... my rb will not go through if I am dead... today is a sad day.

[inHimshallibe]

Hi Troll.

[Zorblag]

Good day inHimshallibe. That's a fascinating role you apparently have; I'm not quite sure how likely it makes you to be scum but only because you've come out with it when I don't think you were in any real danger. I'm guessing that this new vig bit is the curse that I've got the ability to remove in part because it's coming from the Crone (one of the roles that makes sense to be involved with cursing) and in part because it fits so much better than anything else has up till now. That being said, if that's the case then so long as it's done publicly and in an intelligent way not only do I not have a reason to try to block it but it can also be timed so that I wouldn't have a chance to anyhow.

I vaguely question why inHimshallibe didn't do something to breadcrumb it a bit in order to try to draw a night kill (which would have made good use of the PGO aspect) but perhaps he did and I didn't see it. It does give inHimshallibe a much stronger role than I'd expect town to have (in addition to Vi's role and given what we know of the scum roles) but on the other hand there's really no reason that I can think of for him to have come out with that information now if he was scum.

I need to sort through what this does in terms of our options but it's got a good chance of giving us a certain path to victory even without the assumption that inHimshallibe is town that he's making in the plan that he's outlining. mothrax's roleblock not working if he's killed is inconvenient but I think we've now got enough leeway to work around it. I have to look at the flavor on the Vi kill and see how likely I think the death was to be role mechanic from his role as opposed to a night kill (though one way to get that would be to see what a kill looks like tonight if we've got one.)

Let me sleep on it and see what I come up with in terms of plans for using our tools tomorrow.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[mothrax]

Okay, new proposal,
1. leave me alive today
2. lynch troll (if it isn't tans it is him)
2. wait and see what happens with the tans block tonight (I still think there is a high possibility he is scum.)
3. daykill me tomorrow
4. with my flip tans will be either cleared or confscum
5. profit...

or we could go the otherway and just daykill troll and lynch tans today

[nocase]

there's no point in waiting for night results because even if you are town, scum may have an immediate roleblocking ability.

[tanstalas]

or we could go the otherway and just daykill troll and lynch tans today

Why would we lynch me in this scenario? If you are town your RB would prevent me from killing. If anything it would be Daykill troll and lynch Uite and tomorrow if there is still a kill we lynch you

[nocase]

speaking of uite, uite, stop lurking.

[nocase]

actually, i'm an idiot, but i do want to know the order of your top two scum reads, uite.

[inHimshallibe]

or we could go the otherway and just daykill troll and lynch tans today

Why would we lynch me in this scenario? If you are town your RB would prevent me from killing. If anything it would be Daykill troll and lynch Uite and tomorrow if there is still a kill we lynch you

I don't like any scenario where we don't hit Town AND mothrax lives past Today, tbqh.

[nocase]

can you just shoot mothrax before we trick ourselves into keeping him alive?

[tanstalas]

can you just shoot mothrax before we trick ourselves into keeping him alive?

The only problem I have with this is because he said that Ythill said it wouldn't go through if he was dead (the RB) I agree though, Mothrax is probably the best choice for a daykill. Or daykill Uite and vote no lynch to see if there is a kill tonight.
If there is a kill tonight then I am cleared and Mothrax dies tomorrow

If no kill... well, I guess I'd die.. but WIFOM and stuff, the scum may not have submitted a kill... dunno

[Zorblag]

I'm going over scenarios in my head and with the new restriction on information from mothrax that we need to keep him alive till tomorrow to test his block of tanstalas I'm not seeing a completely safe way to do it. At this point I think that nocase has the right approach and that we should focus first on the claimed power roles because there's just no way that all of the claims are coming from town. I know we've already got two particularly powerful roles in the game (Vi and inHimshallibe) so if both mothrax and inHimshallibe are town at this point the remaining scum role would have to be absurd (and there would probably have to have been more to Exe's role than we know about.)

I think that our best bet at this point is to start taking out power claimed power roles until we hit scum. There are really only three ways that it makes sense to do that given the options that we've got:

Option 1: Daykill me and then lynch inHimshallibe when I flip town.

Option 2: Daykill mothrax, have him flip town and then lynch either inHimshallibe or myself.

Option 2a: Daykill mothrax, have him flip scum and then (assuming the game isn't over with a win) re-evaluate based on that information.

Option 3: Use no kills or lynches today at all. This gives us a chance to see if the kill goes through tonight. If it doesn't then either tanstals is scum or scum are pulling a fast one with a no kill. If it does go through and inHimshallibe is town then there's some chance that inHimshallibe would be the target and that would take a scum out for us (though we'd have to wait 7 days in that case to learn it.)

Given that the Uite read (and tomorrow the tanstalas read) is somewhat tied into the mothrax flip if we're going to kill twice today and mothrax is one of the one's we'd kill he makes sense to kill first. If we're not killing mothrax today but do want to kill then, as I said, we should focus on the power roles. Given that I assume inHimshallibe isn't interested killing himself (whether he's able to or not) I would have to be the first to get killed in that case.

A lot of the right move boils down to how likely we think various people are to be scum.


I know that I'm town and it really feels that assuming I'm right and that his day kill/PGO is a curse either inHimshallibe needs to be scum or our roles have been put there to interfere with eachother/draw some mutual suspicion if they stay in the game long enough. If inHimshallibe is scum then the Ungrika Seal has to be some sort of godfather thing to the thief rolecop and I'm trying to decide how likely that is. Pitch Pipe and needles fit a mistral and tatoo artist well; I don't know what would fit the crone offhand. inHimshallibe being scum would also match the stated strength of his belief that Uite might not have been blocked last night and the Vi kill was just part of the Vi's role. If he's scum inHimshallibe needs to have enough possible mislynches to get through the rest of the game.

Having said that a strong argument against inHimshallibe being scum is that he really doesn't have any need to reveal his day kill at this point in the game that I can think of if he's scum. Unless he was pretty sure he'd have to use it later and he needed to get us used to the thought that it'd be coming I don't think he's any better off putting it on the table. I also largely think that if he's scum he could have gotten through the rest of the game without the extra kill given the number of suspects (though perhaps that requires that we buy the Uite thing or that he's able to get my lynched instead of himself at some point.) Still, with Vi's recommendations he had a blueprint for a scum win pre reveal.

@inHimshallibe, why did you wait until after letting Vi talk today to bring up your kill. That might be what's bothering me most about the ability now. That's exactly the sort of extra information that it would have been useful for Vi and the other dead townies to have when giving advice for what to do with the rest of the game. Clearly you were planning on revealing it today anyhow as you did so before we got to the lynch; why not speak up about it earlier? Again, I think that it might have been handy to use as bait for drawing a kill if you left out the PGO part but that's something we can talk about post game when we see what's actually what.

The other player that I need to consider for now is mothrax. As of the end of yesterday I thought that he was a decent lynch and the way the hammer went down felt pretty awful. I sort of think that if he's scum there's a pretty good chance that we'll see a no kill tonight in the hopes of implicating tanstalas (just because that's what I think I'd do in his situation without knowledge of an addition day kill for town) but this latest plan of his where we lynch tanstalas today undercuts that possibility to some degree. The offer to let himself get killed for flips does look as though it's coming from town but now we've got him saying he's got mod confirmation that it won't work the way we need it to which undermines that to some degree.

@mothrax, how certain are you that inHimshallibe is town at this point? Your latest plan seems to rely on that fact. What would you think of inHimshallibe if I were killed and came up town? How much of a chance do you think Uite has to be town right now?

Of the two I think that mothrax is more likely to be scum based on overall play and the plausibility factor of inHimshallibe being a godfather on top of everything else. I'd like to hear their answers to those questions but right now of the options I'm putting out there I prefer option 2 (and think we'll get 2a or simply end the game with a mothrax lynch.) Option 1 doesn't lynch mothrax today no matter what (though it wins the game if inHimshallibe is our only scum) and Option 3 seems to leave too much in terms of decision making to the scum (and has a chance of wasting the day kill.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[tanstalas]

Of the two I think that mothrax is more likely to be scum based on overall play and the plausibility factor of inHimshallibe being a godfather on top of everything else.

I totally agree with the above statement

[Ythill]

• Vote Count
  
  
  
  Not voting: mothrax, inHimshallibe, Zorblag, tanstalas, Uite, nocase

• Notes
  
  
• With six alive it takes four to lynch.
  
• The deadline is Monday, January 31st, 23:30 PST (GMT-8).
  
• Overall prods: Zorblag (2), Mothrax (1).

[Uite]

@Uite: My logic is not faulty - it is all based off of my interpretation of Vi's death, which I think is a very strong one. In my eyes, you thought your ticket to victory was written and now that we have a pretty solid plan to effectively guarantee a Town win (by PoE), you're starting to throw up muck every which way.

Please tell me what muck I am throwing up. I don't see it.

actually, i'm an idiot, but i do want to know the order of your top two scum reads, uite.

Tanstalas and Mothrax, in that order.