Mini 1111: Wait Your Turn, Tex! (GAME OVER)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Hmm. The two possible plans are no-lynch + crossfire as you suggest and lynch + triangle. In the second case we win simply by lynching correctly (since the triangle is guaranteed to kill off scum), which seems fairly manageable. In the first case we lose if it's either of the pairings we made. Let's assign probabilities of being scum to each of us: p1>p2>p3>p4 (the numbers are in order of scumminess; this is all hypothetical.) Then the chance of success for the first one is p1 whereas it's 1-p1p4-p2p3 (fairly sure that's the two pairings you want to pick) for the second one. If p1=p2=p3=p4, both would be 0.5. If we now disturb things by making p1 higher at the expense of p4 and p2 higher at the expense of p3, then we find a derivative of 2(p1+p2)-2, whereas the derivative is 1 in the first case. So in this simplistic model p1+p2 must be higher than 1.5 just for the chance of success to grow faster than that of the triangle plan which clearly suggests the triangle plan is better.

But the best way of judging would probably be for UA to post how likely he thinks people are scum and we can just do the calculations!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Ignore those calculations. We can express the probability of winning following the crossfire plan as p1(1-p4)+p4(1-p1) (i.e. odds of #1scum#4town OR #1town#4scum) which can be rewritten as p1 - p4(2p1-1). This clearly shows that firstly pairing #1 with #4 would be optimal (since p3>p4) and that the crossfire plan is strictly worse than the triangle plan since p4(2p1-1)>0 (p1>0.5).

[Fate]

FUCK YOUR MATH AND FUCK YOUR PLAN SCUM.


IS SCOTMANY TOWN? IS THAT IT?

[Fate]

AND WHY ARE UA'S READS MORE IMPORTANT THAN YOUR OWN?

CLAIMING SCUM CES? AFTER YOU PLAYED SO WELL LAST GAME WE WERE IN?


OH YOU'VE FALLEN.

OH MAN.

[Fate]

Katsuki

BTW I CAUGHT YOU KATSUKI SO LOL NO BRAG FOR YOU.

SADLY I TOOK CESSCUM OFF THE SHOOTING LIST, BUT ITS OK I'LL GET HIM DEADEAD TODAY

[PokerFace]

I clearly missed a class in college or am just overworked as some of CES's stuff is complicated. UA being only confirmed should get final call on what plan is best. I am fairly certain scotmany is scum while i have no clue as to who of fate or CES is his buddy. Fate's actions seem to swing in all directions and I doubt CES would have stuck his neck out for sudo yesterday. I'll take some time to think on this

[scotmany12]

Fate's plan only works if we pair scum with town in order to crosskill. Which is impossible to determine.

[Fate]

SAID THE SECOND SCUMBAG.

LOL.

LOLOLOLOL

THIS IS TOO EASY

"your plan doesnt work because we can't determine scumbags"

"lets wait for UA tot ell us who will win this game or not"

NOT AN OUNCE OF SCUMHUNTING.

POKERFACE IN ALL HIS MADNESS IS OBVTOWN COMPARETIVELY.

UA WHAT SAY YE? LYNCH SCUMBAGS OR SHOOT THEM AT NIGHT?

[scotmany12]

There isn't an ounce of scumhunting in your recent posts either. You only called me and ces scum, without any justification what so ever.

And your plan doesn't work. There is a risk of pairing the two scum with each other, which would give them the win. Fuck that.

[Fate]

HEHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

But I CALLED people scum.

I clearly have SUSPECTS.

TOWN READS.

CONNECTIONS

You're sitting there with your scum role PM sucking on your thumb.

You've lost this game.

Where is this risk?

Who is this mysterious scumpair that I'm pairing?

You're scummy as all hell.

I'm surprised no one shot scot last night.

[scotmany12]

Calling someone scum, while providing no justification, is not scumhunting.

And we aren't going to let you pick the pairs. For all we know, you could be scum with ces. You acting like you're confirmed town is scummy. If we are going to do this plan, then UA, the only person here who is confirmed town, is going to pick the pairs. I'm not going to let someone who has the chance of being scum pick any pairs.

[Fate]

Not calling anyone scum.

Sitting there and hoping UA will come in and say FATE IS SCUMZ LYNCH HIM. Or something like that, I don't know what your "plan" is to win but you don't have a slim chance.

"For all we know" yeah for all TOWN COULD know there is that chance. But what do you THINK? What are your STANCES?

I'm not gonna play the semantics game after this post: You're right it isn't scumhunting. Because I KNOW you two are scum. Its called BEING TOWN.

I'm not acting like confirmed town.

PokerFace, and UA are the only ones that need to read my interactions with the dead scum to READ me as town, and I think such is obvious. You are not doing anything that is indicitative of town, which is why POKERFACE is the other real Even Night vig and you are scum.

It really is just that simple.

[PokerFace]

Square with no lynch = 50%

scuma > towna > scumb > Townb> = win
scumb > townb > scuma > Towna> = win
scuma > townb > scumb > Towna> = win
scumb > towna > scuma > Townb> = win

scuma > scumb > towna > Townb> = loose
scuma > scumb > townb > Towna> = loose
scumb > scuma > towna > Townb> = loose
scumb > scuma > townb > Towna> = loose

Triangle with lynch = 50%

lynch 50% chance hit scum and if that goes through then triangle does too obviously

Cross with no lynch

scuma >< towna & scumb >< townb = Win
scumb >< towna & scuma >< townb = Win
scuma >< scumb & towna >< townb = Loose

Lookslike cross is best option. UA check my math and tell me what you think and who i should cross with

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

AND WHY ARE UA'S READS MORE IMPORTANT THAN YOUR OWN?

Because the confirmed innocent decides things, jackass.

IS SCOTMANY TOWN? IS THAT IT?

I don't know. I think PokerFace is scum, but I'm not sure who his partner is.

POKERFACE IN ALL HIS MADNESS IS OBVTOWN COMPARETIVELY.

Pokerface is doing the

exact same thing

you're accusing me and scot of: leaving it up to UA and set-up speculation.

Cross with no lynch

scuma >< towna & scumb >< townb = Win
scumb >< towna & scuma >< townb = Win
scuma >< scumb & towna >< townb = Loose

Although crudely simplistic it does show my earlier conclusion was wrong. I see I forgot to adjust the probabilities of #4 being town given that #1 was scum and vice versa, which would give p1(1-0.5p4)+p4(1-0.5p1)=p1+p4(1-p1), which ironically reverses the conclusion: although the improvement is slight (it's significantly smaller than 2/3 vs. 1/2 as in Pokerface's example because he implicitly assumed the distribution (0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5) which hurts the triangle plan most), crosskilling is always better. I feel silly.

[Fate]

Imagine that. The plan proposeed by scumCES has a worse win percentage

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Please.
1) The difference isn't that big.
2) That assumes no one won't check my work.
3) I have too much mathematical pride to do such a thing.

[UltimaAvalon]

I'd like to point out that I have a secret win-condition of Fate dieing in any way other than my own bullet

Serious post to come later

[Fate]

Please.
1) The difference isn't that big.
2) That assumes no one won't check my work.
3) I have too much mathematical pride to do such a thing.

MATHEMATICAL PRIDE NOTHING.

SCUM CAN MAKE NUMBERS SAY ANYTHING.

THE MAIN POINT I WAS MAKING IS LOLYOURE100%SCUM.

GUARANTEED.

AVALON MY PLAN REQUIRES MY DEATH, BUT I ALSO GET TO FULFILL MY SECRET WIN CON OF NAILING CES-SCUM

(in all seriousness I didn't nail anyone this game, Hoopla nailed Xalve, and probably shot Katsuki too (who I thought was a buddy I admit) scotmany was and is obvscum, and I had no read on CES until it came down to simple PoE)

KEKEKEKKEKE

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Caps aren't going to change anything. Try providing some content next post instead of this posturing.

[Fate]

ME? PROVIDE CONTENT?

LOL THE IRONY.

LOLFUCKING L.

THERE IS NO MORE CONTENT MY SLOT CAN PROVIDE. YOU AND SCOTMANY ARE SCUM AND I'VE STATED WHY. POKERFACE IS TOWN I'VE STATED WHY.

YOU'RE THE ONE WHOS ALL "scot is scum but iddunooo his partnerzzz waaaaaaaaaaa"

LOL

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

YOU AND SCOTMANY ARE SCUM AND I'VE STATED WHY. POKERFACE IS TOWN I'VE STATED WHY..

I believe that was about scot and me deferring to UA and/or talking about the set-up while PokerFace was supposed not to have done this even though he totally did. Not very convincing.

YOU'RE THE ONE WHOS ALL "scot is scum but iddunooo his partnerzzz waaaaaaaaaaa"

Way to pay attention. Pokerface is the scums.

[Fate]

POKERFACE?

YOURE GONNA TRY TO PUSH A HAILMARY LYNCH ON POKERTOWN?

I GUESS THATS YOUR ONLY ROUTE TO VICTORY, HUH.

KHAHAHHEHEHAHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That seems unlikely since we aren't lynching.

[Fate]

WE CAN DO THIS ALL NIGHT CESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

ALLLLLL NIGHTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

ALLL RIGHTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

[UltimaAvalon]

Not that I dont like being put in the spotlight, I just don't like the whole game riding on my decision, since I'm pretty shit at this whole "Mafia" thing

That said, Fate and Pokerface are Scum, so it should go CES>Fate>Scot>Poker>CES

Shut up Fate