Open 274: Game Over!

[Fenchurch]

Now, I believe if there is no move by deadline Ald is lynched because he had 3 votes first, however, the rules don't say so.

It's not in the rules but BlakAdder has stated that this is what he'd do, yes.

So Fenchurch, with your indecision, you could kill Ald.

I'm aware of this.

The problem is, my gut feeling is that Ald isn't scum. Whereas I do find Fritz pretty scummy, but then, it doesn't really add up for him to be scum, because everyone in the game has at some point pushed for his lynch, when they didn't have to (ie. at a point where it doesn't seem beneficial to bus). Except for Ald who took his vote off early in the game; but then, I don't believe Ald is scum.

Which leaves neither lynch to be a good one. So what do I do

[Alduskkel]

Fenchurch, what happened to your vote chart? It was pretty useful.

[Stefunny]

Which leaves neither lynch to be a good one. So what do I do

Tell us who you think

is

scum.

[Fenchurch]

Woops, tried to update it because of the crossposting, I deleted it but it turned out I couldn't replace.

Here, I think this is up-to-date

[Fenchurch]

If I'm right that neither Ald nor Fritz are scum, then for me the likely combinations are:
Hoopla - andrew
andrew - DMG

Hoopla - DMG is harder to believe due to their attacks against each other.

Which makes andrew the best lynch imo.

However I'm still trying consider the options that include Fritz, because my gut feeling on him is pretty consistently scummy. Hoopla took her vote off early, but only after asking me and Stef if we wanted to hammer. andrew's been sitting on him the whole day. I'm still reading.

[Fenchurch]

Sorry, there is a lot to get through and it's late here. If I had a lot more time I think I could crack this but I don't so I will have to take a stab.

Stef, I'm not going to lynch Ald. Would you rather I vote Fritz, or switch to andrew? Ald, how do you feel about andrew?

[Alduskkel]

If andrew94 is scum, then why would he suggest that the backup claim? I don't see any scum motivation behind that. So andrew94 is very town to me.

[Stefunny]

If andrew94 is scum, then why would he suggest that the backup claim? I don't see any scum motivation behind that. So andrew94 is very town to me.

I still think it benefits both sides. It narrows down who is or isn't a power role that needs immediate attention.

[Fenchurch]

I no longer think the backup claiming was such a great move. As andrew points out, if scum aim for her and the doctor blocks, we're still in mylo; we've still got to pick 2 scum out of 5. So it's to the scum's benefit to aim for her regardless, either she dies, or she's a confirmed innocent but to no statistical gain for the town.

I also think backup claiming plan overstated the chance of a mislynch today. If we don't mislynch today, then it's not such a good plan, and there's a 2:7 chance more or less than we can lynch correctly.

I guess it has helped in that it's been a lot easier to look at pairings, with the ability to discount Stef. But nonetheless.. I don't think it was a foolproof townie plan.

-----------

My other thoughts...

If it's Fritz it pretty much relies on him being goon, there's no way andrew would bus to the extent this otherwise, nor probably Hoopla.

DMG and andrew have barely interacted as far as I can see, right now it's looking to me like they're the pair.

There's also a chance that all these are crackpot theories and I'm wasting time/giving scum a huge laugh. But I hope not!

[Fenchurch]

Ald, you're voting Fritz more or less out of necessity. But do you see him as scum? If so, how do you explain the lack of partners?

[Alduskkel]

Bleh. Mostly necessity. But CA was active lurkish even before he decided to just quit, and Fritzler hasn't even really constructed a case. So far he has not stated why I am scummy to him either, despite the fact that he put me at L-1.

[Alduskkel]

As for the lack of partners, I am currently rereading so I'll get back to you on that.

[Da_Mafia_Godfather]

If andrew94 is scum, then why would he suggest that the backup claim? I don't see any scum motivation behind that. So andrew94 is very town to me.

I still think it benefits both sides. It narrows down who is or isn't a power role that needs immediate attention.

This is a zero-sum game. Which side does it benefit?

Also, Ald or Andrew?

Fenchurch: Though its true that we haven't interacted I think you're ignoring the fact that we haven't been ignoring each other (i've made it abundantly that I consider hiom almost certain town (as I'm sure you know considering you haven't tried to draw mer on his wagon). I hold the view that its the ignoring and not the non-interacting that's the scum tell.

[Alduskkel]

Also andrew94's plan to have a confirmed innocent is pro-Town because, from his perspective when he was considering the idea, if the confirmed townie was an otherwise scummy player then that would save us a mislynch, and possibly force the scum to NK that person, and even then they might fail. The only downside is that the scum are just slightly more likely to NK our PR.

Granted, Stefunny was never particularly scummy or anti-Town but the point remains.

[andrew94]

fenchurch, you forgot to mention that the backup claiming today will rule out cc's the next day. and i suggested the plan because it is most likely that we will mislynch on day1.
how have i barely interactefr with dmg?
i think fritz>dmg>ald

[Stefunny]

If andrew94 is scum, then why would he suggest that the backup claim? I don't see any scum motivation behind that. So andrew94 is very town to me.

I still think it benefits both sides. It narrows down who is or isn't a power role that needs immediate attention.

This is a zero-sum game. Which side does it benefit?

Also, Ald or Andrew?

I'm sorry, I don't understand zero-sum game... I see positives and negatives for both sides so it benefits both sides, it depends on how both sides use it.

And my vote is on Ald, I read fairly null on Andrew but an Ald lynch would tell us the most.

[Fenchurch]

if the confirmed townie was an otherwise scummy player then that would save us a mislynch

This works just as well if you ask for claims before you lynch.

And I think that the backup-claim can benefit scum as well, because in an open game, scum don't want to be trapped with confirm-able players; and counter claims can be tricky. The earlier they can eliminate PRs, the better.

fenchurch, you forgot to mention that the backup claiming today will rule out cc's the next day.p

So what, if it doesn't benefit the town in numbers then it doesn't matter whether it rules out counterclaims or not. And counterclaims are often not that hard to deal with. And you said earlier that you couldn't see any advantage to the town if Stef remains alive tomorrow and no one dies, so it is only beneficial if Stef lives in place of someone else, but I can't see why scum would allow that since it doesn't benefit them. So how does it benefit town?

I hold the view that its the ignoring and not the non-interacting that's the scum tell.

To put it another way, having read you both in iso, I see nothing here that I find unlikely as scum. My experience reading through completed games, is that scum rarely interact in a way that's surprising or unusual. I don't usually find scumtells, but I do find a lack of towntells. Having read through as many possibly pairings as I can in this game, I find other pairings don't fit together so well. The two of you are the most plausible as scum.

Look, I need to go to bed now. I still don't agree with lynching Ald, but I don't

know

, and I'm not keen on lynching Fritz either. I'm gonna put my vote where I think it belongs:

VOTE: andrew

If no one changes, then Ald will be lynched at deadline, so be it. If Stef, Fritz or Hoop removes their vote then Fritz will get lynched. If two people (Stef and Ald?) join me on andrew then he gets lynched. The choice is yours.

[Alduskkel]

I don't understand what you find scummy about andrew94, Fenchurch. Also, now that I think about it, your vote on me and subsequent unvote was a really weird 180. You go from saying "Yesyesyes" to being totally unsure about my lynch.

[Alduskkel]

The only major mention of andrew94 being scummy seems to be Fenchurch's suspicion that his attack on Hoopla in the early game was bad and not genuine.

Pretty weak if you ask me.

[Alduskkel]

In case it wasn't clear, this is what I'm starting to get from my reread.

DMG did almost exactly what I predicted he would do: focus on Hoopla and do almost nothing else in terms of other scumhunting. We've got some scum hunting directed at me and a CA vote that was only justified with PoE. As an added bonus, he really hasn't been working towards getting the person he thinks is scum (Hoopla) lynched. He isn't trying to convince anyone, and hasn't except Fenchurch briefly.

Hoopla's PoE post seems well thought out and pro-Town, and in general whenever Hoopla decides to make a large post it comes out that way. So I'll tentatively declare a town read on Hoopla.

Fenchurch could be scum with CA/Fritzler, especially because Fenchurch is the only one who has not held a vote on him for a significant time (only 29 minutes, in fact). But the situation currently means that DMG is probably not scum with Fritzler.

So if we rule out myself, Stefunny, my two town reads, and the scumpair DMG - Fritzler, that leaves:

Fenchurch - Fritzler
Fenchurch - DMG

Unvote, Vote: Fenchurch

. I'm still shaky on this, but I think I will go with this PoE.

Now, since this puts me right on the chopping block and there are less than 5 hours until deadline,

I will claim: Full Power Role

.

I don't know if it makes any difference whether or not I am the Cop or the Doctor to the Town. So I will hold off on claiming that.

[Hoopla]

Oh wow. Post explosion.

Unless someone is planning on countering this, Alduskkel is confirmed town. This really is great news.

UNVOTE:

~~

From my perspective, at least one Fritz/Fenchurch is scum - as there is no way the Alduskkel-wagon leading up to deadline was all town. I'm thrown off by Fenchurch's strange vote-hopping. It looks genuine in a lot of ways, as if she is trying to figure this game out, but she could just be scrambling. When you weigh up who is likelier to be scum out of Fenchurch/Fritz, it looks more like Fenchurch based on how the wagons have unfolded - there hasn't been significant pressure on Fenchurch and the times where CA/Fritz managed to get to L-1 haven't happened without his possible partner very likely being on the lynch. It makes much more sense for Fenchurch to be scum.

VOTE: Fenchurch

I still love you, though!

[andrew94]

however, I find it interesting Ald didn't claim at L-1.

Town, if I am lynched, and when I turn up innocent, look to see if Fenchurch could have jumped off his Ald scumbuddy wagon (which I think there is a small chance of, but possible).

rolefishing???

@fenchurch i said that it would be mylo if the doc protected stefunny, but i realised that later...

fritz the rolefishing > fenchurch the hopper > dmg

[Hoopla]

Fenchurch - DMG

I think this is the scumteam now. I have a theory about why Fen did this;

Jeez.. town are gonna hate me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Ald is scum actually.

UNVOTE:

But... I can't see through the fog and work out who IS. Panicky re-thinking going on okay.

Alduskkel just posted a small catch-up post that hinted at being a powerrole, as there was an emphasis, or rather, a care to put forth the question of him claiming. This is quite clearly PR eagerness, fearful that he's going to be lynched if he doesn't get this information out in the open. Fenchurch picked up on this, which is the reason for her vote - she doesn't want Alduskkel to claim, because it gives the town another confirmed innocent to work with on D1, narrowing the lynch down even further.

I suspect this is why she was initially against the Back-up claim, because she knew confirmed innocents aid process of elimination A LOT, which is a very powerful tool in a small game. I suspect this is why she shifted to Andrew before allowing Alduskkel to claim, too. She wanted to direct a new deadline wagon, rather than let Alduskkel claim, and the fallout of votes possibly land on her. She is hitting the problem on the head before it surfaces - she knew what was happening.

The push towards Andrew is very bad, and is reinforcing my once strong town read of andrew. His plan to have the back-up claim was very protown, if only because it shows initiative in trying to break the game open a bit more for town, or at least improve our odds. The reason Fenchurch is attacking Andrew is because she is defending herself and Empking by proxy. Leading the fallout of the Alduskkel wagon was necessary, because if Fritz wasn't attacked, which she knew the town was increasingly becoming wary of, herself or Empking were next in line.

Even if this isn't entirely true, and Fenchurch's unvote of Alduskkel wasn't for this reason, it makes the Fritz/Fenchurch pair unlikely, because it increases Fritz' chances of getting lynched by spreading the votes. I'm really starting to think this might be Fenchurch/Empking after all. I can't see Empking/Fritz, really. And I think Fenchurch's push on Andrew makes it more likely he is town, coupled with his protown plan earlier in the game.

Fenchurch is scum. Lets lynch her...

[Fritzler]

Here is the Votecount I made since deadline is 3 hours away.

(1st to 2) Alduskkel (2): Fritzler, Stefunny
(2nd to 2) Fritzler (2): Andrew94, Da_Mafia_Godfather,
(3rd to 2) Fenchurch (2): Alduskkel, Hoopla
Andrew94 (1): Fenchurch
With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

[Hoopla]

Fritz, get your damn vote off Alduskkel.