Mafia 124 - Dilemma Mafia (Day 6)

[CryMeARiver]

Typing on a droid so kinda tough sorry for. Typos

@bob: you are right ;should. Have. Said protown vs
Antitown

[Empking]

Vote Count 15

1. bobsnox (1) - DarlaBlueEyes,
2. DarlaBlueEyes (3) -, CMAR, MoreWhisky, flinter
3. flinter
4. DLG
5. Jahudo
6. Bub Bidderskins (2) - Llarmable, Fishythefish
7. Fishythefish
8. Brokenscraps
9. CryMeARiver
10. Nikanor
11. Yosarian2
12. Final Fires
13. Llarmable (6) - Yosarian2, bobsnox, Bub Bidderskins, Brokenscraps, Final Fires, DLG
14. MoreWhisky (1) - Jahudo

Not Voting: Nikanor


With 14 alive its 8 to lynch.

[DLG]

DLG is massively trying to strongarm a Llama quicklynch. Very disturbing, considering Llama was his third option not long ago, and the others (DBE, MW) are possible lynches.

When you steal my arguments that highlight scummy behavior and try to turn them against me, at least use them properly. I have done nothing that could remotely be considered strongarming anyone. Either provide evidence or admit you misrepresented this and explain why you did so.

Yes, this slot was third on my list of preference. There was not enough variance between the three to prevent me from being willing to hammer the one that made it to L-1.

Could you please describe how being willing to hammer a slot that you believe is scum is wrong?

The contradiction (?) between Llama posting content and accusing people of trying to quicklynch him. Not sure I understand this, but that's what it says.

Two weeks is plenty of time to have enough content to make reads solid enough to be willing to lynch. Llamarble claims to have posted as much or more content as everyone else. Therefore, lynching him does not qualify as a quicklynch.

Llama basing an argument on BB knowing he was town. That's a line of argument used all the time. It's a common scumtell that scum know what flips are going to be, and going after Llama for using it is totally ridiculous.

For the sake of argument, assume Bub Bidderskins is scum. Since we do not know the set-up is confined to scum vs. town, Bub Bidderskins as scum does not guarantee Llamarble is town. That is the falsehood Llamarble is selling. Why are you so gullible as to buy it? On the flip side, Llamarble's claim to be town does not make Bub Bidderskins scum for attacking him.

After all, by that reasoning, you must be scum for attacking and classifying that same slot as scum when ender241 was playing.

Your stance is confusing me. You replaced in, found a convenient spot to place your vote, then got very involved once the slot you voted was about to be lynched. Why weren't you pushing Bub Bidderskins as scum earlier instead of parking your vote on this slot?

[DLG]

Bub is OBVIOUS STRONGARMING SCUM.

WHY DO YOU AND Fishythefish NOT UNDERSTAND THAT STRONGARMING MEANS THREATENING ANOTHER PLAYER TO ACHIEVE A DESIRED RESULT?

[DLG]

At this stage of the day, bandwagons are good if and only if they are on scum. If Llamarble flips Vanilla Townie - which I think he will - this day is a

failure

. The information from his lynch is not nearly enough to make up for lynching town.

This is tripe.

At this stage of the day, bandwagons are good. Period. No qualification needed.
We get it, already. You flip-flopped on your read of that slot. That doesn't mean everyone else did, also.
A "

failure

"? Really? Can you say Appeal to Fear? No townie is ever 100% sure that they are lynching scum. Lynches advance the knowledge available to town, regardless of the alignment of the player lynched. Lynching scum is always better than lynching town, but lynching town is nothing near to

failure

on Day 1.

Are we only supposed to overcome the fear of mislynching if you lead us to the lynch? Or, can we use our own reads and minds to get there?

[Final Fires]

(Skip to last sentence for short version)

It's a triumph of rhetoric that I really doubt BB actually believes:
1. Tries to undermine Llama because the latter writes in capitals. Painting your opponent as desperate scum is always easier than actually analysing their play.
2. Calls Llama's case on BB weak because it's built on the contradictions of Llama changing on DBE, and of disliking both DBE and BB. This is incredibly weak. First, he makes no attempt to address Llama's (entirely believable) claim that his reads changed while he was catching up. Second, Llama's contradiction, or lack of it, is totally irrelevant to his case on BB. It's totally valid to call both DBE and BB scummy, and be more certain about either than the other. Thirdly, BB simply doesn't bother to defend the actual points! Trying to discredit the attacker instead of defending yourself is a scummy way to go about things.
3. Accuses Llama of trying to speedlynch him! He is comparing trying to build a wagon in a week with demanding claims and hammer. These are clearly incomparable, and this is just BB trying to win an argument.
That's really what that whole post is about. BB is trying to win an argument. Not to defend himself, not to rebut Llama, but to get Llama lynched - and he's happy for truth to fall by the wayside to achieve that. It's a very scummy attitude.

1. Maybe I misunderstood bub, but I read his post thinking he was kidding about the capital letter thing. He put [/sarcasm] at the end, so I'm pretty sure it was just a joke.
2. I agree with most of this point, but it seemed like llama did the same thing. When he had seven votes against him, his first reaction was to try to shift the wagon to bub over defending himself.
3. Again, I agree with this.

I don't think that the case against bub is particularly weak, but I don't think it's any stronger than the ender case. With that being said, I do think the case against whisky is stronger than the bub case. As far as I'm aware, pretty much everyone has vocalized agreement that whisky is scum. Please correct me if there are any mistakes on this list:

People who have stated whisky is scum:

1. DLG (Pointed out Whisky's lie, post 287) (Tried to bandwagon whisky, but was content with llama wagon)
2. Bobsnox (Voted for llama wagon, his only explanation being "are whisky and ender scumbuddies? hmm" Post 294)
3. Final Fires (Voted whisky, long explanation. See 297)
4. Jahudo ("Pretty obvious contradiction from whisky." Post 307)
5. Brokenscraps (Whisky is on his list, but would prefer a llama lynch, Post 310)
6. Llamarble (Said he looks scummy, but he still has reading to catch up with. Post 274) (Said whisky looks pretty bad, Post 288) (Said he thinks whisky was being sarcastic when he contradicted himself, but is still a likely "bidderbuddy", post 318)


People who are on the fence or haven't expressed an opinion:

1. Fishy (Said he had more whisky questions, and would follow up once whisky answere'd DLG's questions, but that never happened. It could just be an accident, but it's worth noting that by not following up conversation on whisky immediately ceased. It's also scummy that he's the one who switched his vote when we were near a lynch. Twice. 299.
2. Flinter (No comment - she is busy until Monday)
3. Bub Bidderkins (Ignored whisky entirely, and quickly switched to llama wagon once whisky wagon began to gain momentum. Post 308)
4. Darla (Sickness)
5. Nickanor (What's new? )

People who think whisky is town:

1. Whisky (I'm not scum I'm town! Post 293)

Sorry to whoever I'm missing!

Just to be honest, when I was rereading the thread it seemed like the whisky bandwagon was quickly pushed aside. Bub shifted to the llama wagon very quickly too, just in time to kill its momentum. The bub case deserves more attention that it's gotten; but it won't have much ground unless darla turns out innocent or whisky flips scum. As for the llama case, I feel he's scummy, but I'm glad that llama is at least posting, which is more than can be said for whisky. If he makes it past tonight, and we did lynch bub, and bub did flip town, he would gain a lot more trust. The question is if we have enough time to allow all that to happen - if all of that doesn't happen, I'm still fairly confident that llama is scum.

This was just a long way to say that I'm still happy with the llama wagon, but if we do switch wagons, I would prefer a whisky lynch over a bub one.

[DLG]

I don't want anyone to hammer until that scummy lurker Nikanor gets a chance to weigh in.

I think we'd all appreciate some valid input from you. Please follow through.

I'm certainly comfortable with a MoreWhisky lynch. I'm also comfortable with a Llamarble lynch. Below those two, I have remaining suspicions towards DarlaBlueEyes and Nikanor.

I am perturbed that so much discussion is being spent on possible scum pairings and advanced planning of suspects on Day 2. All the arguments that revolve around Player A being more likely scum because of their interactions with Player B are off base at this point. It is Day 1, and we should only lynch a player if they are scummy by themself. It should not be this difficult to attain a consensus on who to lynch.

The big problem with putting off the decision on who to lynch is that the town is left scrambling and rushed decisions are not good ones. Let's get it together and commit to a lynch and then move forward with the information we gain.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Fishy wanted me to respond to Llamarble's case, so here I go...

Vote: Bub Bidderskins

(1)Complete lack of towntells. I see nothing in his posting that looks difficult to believe from scum.

(2)Tunneling / vote parking on Darla with a weak case.
(3)The case he makes against Darla is that she was initially hesitant with voting and then starts moving her vote around. I see no reason for scum to be unwilling to have their vote on people, especially so far from lynchtime. This is totally inadequate to lynch somebody on, even D1. Those Darlactions read to me as townie not sure of reads due to lack of information so far, changing reads as more information became available.

The numbers are mine.

1) The idea that somebody is scum simply because they have not displayed anything that looks town is silly. Just because I don't look town doesn't make me scum.
2) My vote was parked on who I thought was scum. Based on what I had seen, I thought that Darla was the most likely scum player there was.
3) I see a reason for them not willing to vote around. It's called caution. Scum are worried about how they look and generally are more cautious. Townies simply vote for who they think is scum and give their honest opinion. Scum, on the other hand, know whether or not the person they're voting for is town.

Now, as to me "lining up bob and whisky for lynches" all I have to say is that I gave my honest opinion that if Darla was town, then bob and whisky were likely scum just because of their bandwagoning. It isn't too different to what Bob said here:

I'd support a BB lynching after we lynch Llamarble (for my previously mentioned reasons).

Do you think that Bob is scummy because of this? Isn't he lining up lynches?

Also, some people asked me about my switch from no-opinion on ender/Llamarble to a scum opinion. Well, I thought that ender and Darla might be a scum team together. The reason for this was Darla's fence-sitting on ender and ender's non-committant attitude towards the Darla wagon. I didn't want ender to think that I had him and his scumpartner pegged until I had more evidence. That's why I was asking ender about the Darla wagon, to see if he could be scum-buds with Darla. Unfortunatly, I never got that answer because he replaced out.

I really want Darla come in and give her opinion, but right now I do suspect a Llamarble/Darla scumteam.

[Fishythefish]

Damn, lost this post.
@DLG:
Re: "strongarming". You're quite right - I picked that term up from a post of BB's and it's the wrong one. Doesn't change the points; you're pushing a wagon very hard for very poor reasons, and trying to get a lynch quickly.

Re: "quicklynching". It's not about how much content Llama has produced, it's about how much he's currently producing, and what's happening. Here's why I think it's bad for you to threaten to hammer: even if Llama were equal with DBE and MW, you should want to firm up your reads on all of them, particularly when the others are possible lynches. It's not natural to just go after one candidate and threaten to lynch him immediately.

Re: BBscum -/> Llamatown. Quite right, actually, I have been making that assumption and it's a bad one. It doesn't change all that much. A terrible wagon does make Llama more likely town, and BB's attacks are still incredibly scummy. You don't address my actual point here. Llama said BB was scum for knowing Llama was town. You said that makes no sense because BB wouldn't know that. But scum

do

assume other people are town, and it's common to use that as a scumtell. I was criticising your point against Llama.

After all, by that reasoning, you must be scum for attacking and classifying that same slot as scum when ender241 was playing.

Your stance is confusing me. You replaced in, found a convenient spot to place your vote, then got very involved once the slot you voted was about to be lynched. Why weren't you pushing Bub Bidderskins as scum earlier instead of parking your vote on this slot?

I don't understand the first sentence here. I don't see how any of my reasoning says that.

I replaced in, and decided who I thought was scummy. When I came back to see a terrible bandwagon on one of those people, I decided the bandwagon was worse than the person it was on. I can hardly believe you are actually asking why I didn't push BB as scum earlier - it's totally obvious. BB's scummy actions came

after

my original vote.

At this stage of the day, bandwagons are good if and only if they are on scum. If Llamarble flips Vanilla Townie - which I think he will - this day is a

failure

. The information from his lynch is not nearly enough to make up for lynching town.

This is tripe.

At this stage of the day, bandwagons are good. Period. No qualification needed.
We get it, already. You flip-flopped on your read of that slot. That doesn't mean everyone else did, also.
A "

failure

"? Really? Can you say Appeal to Fear? No townie is ever 100% sure that they are lynching scum. Lynches advance the knowledge available to town, regardless of the alignment of the player lynched. Lynching scum is always better than lynching town, but lynching town is nothing near to

failure

on Day 1.

Are we only supposed to overcome the fear of mislynching if you lead us to the lynch? Or, can we use our own reads and minds to get there?

There's no appeal to fear here. I was saying to bob that what we need to do is lynch scum, and nothing else. He seems to think that the information content from this lynch is comparably important to the result. A bandwagon on town at this stage of the day is

bad

if we can lynch scum instead. We have a whole week, and someone being at L-1 is a very poor reason to lynch them. bob seems content with lynching Llama and seeing the outcome, and I think he should be thinking harder about the situation. Obviously I expect people to use their own reads and minds to make their votes, but equally obviously right now I've got a fairly strong opinion I want people to agree with.

You haven't defended any of your points on Llama.

@bob: I was quite sure about Llamatown, but as I say above that's a little off. What I'm now pretty sure of is that the recent wagon is scumdriven, which certainly reflects well on Llama. BB looks

terrible

from this wagon, and the recent points against Llama are generally pretty awful. That makes BB a better lynch than Llama.

@FF: quite right that I forgot about MW (as you may have noticed, I got a bit distracted). I'll do a full post on that later tonight. The main point wass a fairly strong MW-ender/Llama link, which was more interesting when I wanted a Llama lynch.

BB claims to have voted Llama based on a BB/Llama scumteam. This doesn't explain why move from BB to Llama, and it doesn't explain trying to justify that move with some extremely bad points and posts.

[bobsnox]

I was saying to bob that what we need to do is lynch scum, and nothing else. He seems to think that the information content from this lynch is comparably important to the result. A bandwagon on town at this stage of the day is bad if we can lynch scum instead.

right so let's lynch Llamarble

bob seems content with lynching Llama and seeing the outcome, and I think he should be thinking harder about the situation.

look at this awesome wagon stalling out...

was ender scummy? yep. has llamarble rectified that? nope.

Obviously I expect people to use their own reads and minds to make their votes, but equally obviously right now I've got a fairly strong opinion I want people to agree with.

ok so I'm voting Llamarble. why are you posting stuff like that?

"Don't do what you want to do but do what you want to do"

@bob: I was quite sure about Llamatown, but as I say above that's a little off. What I'm now pretty sure of is that the recent wagon is scumdriven, which certainly reflects well on Llama.

I now support a Fishy lynch until further notice

He is way too sure Llamarble would flip town.

Supported lynches:
Llamarble
Fishy
Bub
Darla
Whisky

[Fishythefish]

@bob: DLG accused me of trying to direct the lynch, and turn the town into a flock of mindless sheep. I simply said the obvious thing - I want to persuade people of what I believe to be true.

What do you think of BB's and DLG's cases on Llama?

[bobsnox]

Fishy - how many scum teams do you think there are? You seem to be talking like there's only one.

[Fishythefish]

I have no idea. I probably do tend to assume one (in my head this game feels like a mini), but that assumption is not necessarily good. It doesn't really matter for anything I'm saying. If there are scum driving Llama's wagon, that makes it more likely he's town either way - then there is at least one scumteam he can't be on. And BB is much scummier than Llama at the moment, which is really the crucial point. Whether Llama is townish, null or mildly scummy isn't that important.

[bobsnox]

unvote

vote: fishythefish

time for a new wagon

[Fishythefish]

Why do you think I'm scum?

[bobsnox]

Why do you think I'm scum?

I have no idea. I probably do tend to assume one (in my head this game feels like a mini), but that assumption is not necessarily good. It doesn't really matter for anything I'm saying. If there are scum driving Llama's wagon, that makes it more likely he's town either way - then there is at least one scumteam he can't be on. And BB is much scummier than Llama at the moment, which is really the crucial point. Whether Llama is townish, null or mildly scummy isn't that important.

1 - it does matter.
2 - that wouldn't make it more likely he's town
3 - your last sentence is scummy

You are way too sure Llamarble is town and you're not drawing appropriate conclusions concerning the possibility of there being more than one scum faction.

Conclusion: you are scum who knows there's only your scum faction to deal with and that Llamarble isn't one of your scumbuddies.

[Fishythefish]

Eliminating half the ways a player could be scum makes it half as likely they are scum. In fact, not being scum with BB eliminates

more

than that - because there's a decent chance there's only one team. It's crazy to say that just because there might be two scumteams, one player being scum can't make another

more likely

to be town.

Even if I knew there were two scumteams, so what? BB is scummier than Llama. Nothing I'm saying relies on there only being one scumteam.

What do you think of BB's and DLG's cases on Llama?

[DarlaBlueEyes]

sorry guys. my sick turned into the flu and I've been passed out almost everyday I am starting to feel a little better but am still feverish but I'll really try to get something up tomorow

[Llamarble]

I'm tired tonight, but I'll be around tomorrow.
I don't really care about potential multiteams D1. If the scum are scumhunting sincerely (for another faction) then we don't really have anything to go on anyway except associative tells among small groups.

I'm not sure why Broken is still voting me. Please address viewtopic.php?p=2760740#p2760740

So far my biggest suspect is Bobsnox, who on review of most of his posts/iso as been a total sheep and hostile when his actions are questioned. This screams scum to me and one that can easilly slip under the radar with the Fires/Ender blunders and me, apparently. Looking back over it he gives me the most uneasy vibes of anyone, and if you look at his ISO you'll see why. I also have an uneasy read on Whiskey but he's actually scum hunting which is much more beneficial to town than what Bob has been doing.

No content - no original thought - hostility when questioned - expecting everyone to just accept his actions or shut up.

vote Bobsnox

I agree that bob looks really scummy if you assume that you are town. Since I do not hold that assumption, I do not feel that bobsnox is very scummy. However, if it so happens that you are town, then bob is extremely scummy. I've already said that. I feel bad repeating myself.

Darla, this is the 3rd time you've changed your vote since page 4. Comparing this to the start, where you played very cautiously, and were unwilling to even place a (serious) vote, you're play style really seems to be changing. You spent a lot of time ISO'ing Striker and Whiskey, and then out of nowhere you vote Bob? I understand that you said you were going to do more ISO's, but still, that seems really strange to me.

My thoughts exactly.
[/b]

I missed how awful this was before. HE THINKS HIS TOP SCUMREAD IS DOING GOOD SCUMHUNTING. AND HE THINKS HER CHANGING HER VOTE TO THE PERSON SHE FINDS SUSPICIOUS BECAUSE OF THIS SCUMHUNTING IS A SCUMMY MOVE. THIS IS _NOT_ TOWN LOGIC.


Reply to Bub's most recent post:
1. As I've said, most players do at least _something_ that feels weird under the assumption that they're scum.
2. Voting who you think is scum is fine. Tunneling/voteparking with a weak case isn't since it suggests you're not actively looking around for scum.
3. Cautiousness is not a strong enough scumtell to justify your behavior toward the DBE wagon. I read her as town trying to find the scum but not getting strong positives yet and thus being hesitant / moving around, which is how she described herself as well.

I agree that a ton of players appear to be lining up lynches; your example was especially blatant but in general it's not a good sign to be saying "tralala when my current target X flips town I'll go after Y."

Your reasoning for switching to Ender is all by association with Darla. If you think Darla is independently scummy and Ender is likely to be scum if Darla is, then why switch wagons? The reasoning there was just very weak. You simply being afraid of Darla's replacement catching you and OMGUSing to get me out of the way makes much more sense as your actual reason.

[brokenscraps]

Struggling to read now but can everybody just please stop posting monster posts? This day is already going on too long and these are unenjoyable to read and anti-town in their repetitive mind numbing.

[Jahudo]

Do you know why it is weak? Because it is birthed from desperate scum and built on a contradiction. You say that you don't like my case on DBE, then you say that you find Darla to be scummy. Then you vote for me and call me the scummiest player around. You think that Darla is scummy and yet you think that the main pusher of the Darla wagon [me] is scum. Your default stance on Darla is that she is town, and yet when you look back at her posts, you realize that she's been posting scummy. So you panic because she's your partner and you chainsaw me.

I don't see this point. Where did Llarmable call Darla scummy or scum? I don't see anything other than a "maybe I'm wrong about Darla, i'll read some more" in post 277. He says he could "see her as scum" but I don't think that can be called a official suspicion by him.

Complete lack of towntells. I see nothing in his posting that looks difficult to believe from scum.
Tunneling / vote parking on Darla with a weak case.
The case he makes against Darla is that she was initially hesitant with voting and then starts moving her vote around. I see no reason for scum to be unwilling to have their vote on people, especially so far from lynchtime. This is totally inadequate to lynch somebody on, even D1. Those Darlactions read to me as townie not sure of reads due to lack of information so far, changing reads as more information became available.

I don't support this case for the most part. Town don't normally explain towntells. Some people give a general "these people look town" and that's it. It shouldn't be any more specific or scum are given help on who to NK first. The lack of a vote or suspicion is enough to say "I don't find you suspicious for what you've done so far".

The vote park looked warranted early on when it was clear Darla was cautious, and an investigation to see if that came from town or scum motivation could be determined. Though by 178 I thought she was starting to play more aggressively, and I'm wondering why people on that wagon didn't talk about it then.

@Bub: You didn't see Darla's vote on bobsnox are aggressive play? Or at least less cautious and something to point out in the thread?

----------

MoreWhisky are you around?

I thought maybe darla and llamarble are scum buddies, but ive now gone off that idea, im not gona join the Bw on llamarble.

So were you being sarcastic to bobsnox in post 285 or not?

Do you still think Darla is the best wagon today? Why or why not?

If you like how Llarmable has defended the wagon against him, do you also think the wagon against him is scum-driven or has scum logic?

[DLG]

I don't understand the first sentence here. I don't see how any of my reasoning says that.

You read ender241 as scum. You voted him. Therefore, you must be scum for attacking such a townie slot. That is the same argument that Llamarble is using against Bub Bidderskins.

Go back and re-read ender241. Then, remember that Llamarble is in that slot. Llamarble's play looks to me like a skilled player replacing in a scum slot that was bungled by the first occupant.

I'd advise anyone who is having second thoughts about lynching Llamarble to do this. If your conclusion is that ender241 was scummy, then you should have no hesitation in lynching Llamarble.

[Fishythefish]

I will do what you ask on ender, later today.

Where in Llama's posting does he say that attacking townies is scummy? To be clear, that is not a position I support in any way. Llama being town is neither here nor there to this terrible wagon.

@Jahudo: have you looked in detail at the cases of BB and DLG on Llama? What do you think of them?

[Nikanor]

Llarma is town because he thinks his opinion matters. That is classic townie thinking all the way. I'm only skimming his posts but from what I read it really does look like he thinks we care about what he has to say.

Vote: DLG.

Fishy, would you like to join me? A DLG lynch would be excellent right about now.

[MoreWhisky]

Its been said before but ender made a mess of his role, he wasnt scum he was new to this. Llmarble doent deserve this wagon.