Mafia 124 - Dilemma Mafia (Day 6)

[Empking]

Vote Count 17

1. bobsnox (1) - DarlaBlueEyes,
2. DarlaBlueEyes (3) -, CMAR, MoreWhisky, flinter
3. flinter
4. DLG (1) - Nikanor
5. Jahudo
6. Bub Bidderskins (2) - Llarmable, Fishythefish
7. Fishythefish (1) - bobsnox
8. Brokenscraps
9. CryMeARiver
10. Nikanor
11. Yosarian2
12. Final Fires
13. Llarmable (5) - Yosarian2, Bub Bidderskins, Brokenscraps, Final Fires, DLG
14. MoreWhisky (1) - Jahudo

Not Voting:


With 14 alive its 8 to lynch.

[Nikanor]

Hey MW, do you want to join the budding DLG wagon? I'm sure it has the potential to go far, and I can certainly make it worth your while.
Plus, when DLG flips scum you'll get town points for being one of the first on the wagon. Even if you're town, you can't deny that you need that boost to avoid being lynched within the next couple of days.

[flinter]

Empking, if you already have someone who wants to enter this game, you can replace me. My activity is far from what I would want it to be.

[bobsnox]

Llarma is town because he thinks his opinion matters. That is classic townie thinking all the way. I'm only skimming his posts but from what I read it really does look like he thinks we care about what he has to say.

Vote: DLG.

Fishy, would you like to join me? A DLG lynch would be excellent right about now.

lolll

FoS Nikanor. Maybe you're just silly. But that sounds pretty scummy right there.

Why are you only skimming the posts of one of the leading bandwagons, not too mention the replacement for one of the scummiest players?

I support a Nikanor lynch now

Supported lynches:
Llamarble
Darla
Nikanor
Whisky
Fishy
Bub

Its been said before but ender made a mess of his role, he wasnt scum he was new to this. Llmarble doent deserve this wagon.

"made a mess of his role"? you know what his role is?

[CryMeARiver]

Its been said before but ender made a mess of his role, he wasnt scum he was new to this. Llmarble doent deserve this wagon.

"made a mess of his role"? you know what his role is?

I noticed that too. Explain please Whisky.

[Yosarian2]

Its been said before but ender made a mess of his role, he wasnt scum he was new to this.

What makes you think Ender wasn't scum?

Yes, granted, he played badly no matter what his alignment, but playing badly is hardly a town tell. He also did a number of very specific behiavors that I consider to be pretty good scumtells.

I'm not convinced by Fishy's defense of Ender/Llamarble either, his posts seem mostly due to paranoia about the people on the wagon.

By the way, Whisky, I want a very specific answer, with quotes from Ender's or Llamarble's posts that you think make him more likely to be town, and I want it soon. We don't have that much time left, and I really want to get you down on record on Ender before he flips.

[Empking]

werewolf555 replasces flinter

[CryMeARiver]

Bandwagon analysis was interesting for two people (also showed me that my vote was on Darla). The following wagons show the person voting at the peak of the wagon they were on.
UNVOTE: Darla

Vote Count 3
12. Final Fires (4) - Brokenscraps,

Bub Bidderskins

, bobsnox, ender241

Vote Count 12
2. DarlaBlueEyes (6) -

Bub Bidderskins

, CMAR, DLG, MoreWhisky, bobsnox, flinter

Vote Count 15
13. Llarmable (7) - Yosarian2, Nikanor, bobsnox,

Bub Bidderskins

, Brokenscraps, Final Fires, DLG

Let the records show that Bud was indeed one of the first people on the Darla wagon, however he recently abandoned it for the Llarmable wagon which was reaching its peak at the time.

Vote Count 3
12. Final Fires (4) - Brokenscraps,

Bub Bidderskins

,

bobsnox

, ender241

Vote Count 6
13. ender241 (3) - Yosarian2,

bobsnox

, Jahudo

Vote Count 12
2. DarlaBlueEyes (6) -

Bub Bidderskins

, CMAR, DLG, MoreWhisky,

bobsnox

, flinter

Vote Count 15
13. Llarmable (7) - Yosarian2, Nikanor,

bobsnox

,

Bub Bidderskins

, Brokenscraps, Final Fires, DLG

Very similar actions to Bub indeed. From the wagons, Bob is clearly very reactionary with his vote and is quick to abandon his wagon for one that is gaining steam.

While I found ender quite scummy, I agree with Nikanor about what he said about Llamarble. I do think that slot is wrong for the lynch today. The wagon analysis also show that, while I found it quite peculiar that Darla was hesitant to vote her foses at the beginning of the day, it is clear that this is her general style of play. Before, during, and after having a wagon on her, she remained hesitant with her vote (unvoting often) and never tried to push any big counter wagons. This I find more town play than scum play.

An ISO will come later, but for now, my vote belongs here. VOTE: Bobsnox

[werewolf555]

Commencing read

[Llamarble]

Welcome Werewolf!

On a reread it looks like DLG may actually believe what he's saying, so he moves to somewhere between null and town.
I don't particularly like Yosarian's ISO but I've never played with him and it's certainly not in the same scumminess league as Bub.
That scumslip of Bub's I pointed out most recently needs comments.
Do all you people not voting Bub really buy that he's a townie who was most suspicious of Darla in spite of her making what he agreed was a respectable case against Bobsnox? And then he immediately turned around and said that it was notable she was continuing to move her vote around?? When was it ever bad to make a reasonable case against somebody and move your vote to them?? When I read that post of his I felt like he knew Darla believed what she was saying, which does not make sense if he thinks she's scum.

[CryMeARiver]

Welcome Werewolf!

On a reread it looks like DLG may actually believe what he's saying, so he moves to somewhere between null and town.
I don't particularly like Yosarian's ISO but I've never played with him and it's certainly not in the same scumminess league as Bub.
That scumslip of Bub's I pointed out most recently needs comments.
Do all you people not voting Bub really buy that he's a townie who was most suspicious of Darla in spite of her making what he agreed was a respectable case against Bobsnox? And then he immediately turned around and said that it was notable she was continuing to move her vote around?? When was it ever bad to make a reasonable case against somebody and move your vote to them?? When I read that post of his I felt like he knew Darla believed what she was saying, which does not make sense if he thinks she's scum.

Interesting. And my wagon analysis does support this. I still prefer Bob at this point.

[Jahudo]

@Jahudo: have you looked in detail at the cases of BB and DLG on Llama? What do you think of them?

I've commented on some points but yes, I can go point by point for the record.

Bub's case on llarmable:
- 302 says llarmable flip-flopped on Darla read.

I don't read much into it because replacements can have second-thoughts after reads and re-reads of ISOs. His posts looked more like a running commentary than solid stances. And I don't think llarmable directly called Darla scum or scummy in 277.

- 339 says llarmable looks scared scum for writing in caps, and that llarmable is contradictory in calling his wagon a quicklynch while trying to quicklynch Bub.

I don't think CAPS is an alignment tell. Its a playstyle thing some people do situationally to their advantage, but I think they would do it as either alignment--Fate included. The quicklynch comments sound like hot air on both sides because they are viewing their wagons from their perspective only. Llarmable was already half-way to a lynch when he replaced in so I don't think people were piling on him in a hurry to get him lynched, but at the same time Llarmable responded like any townie should in his situation: defend the case against you and offer a better alternative through scumhunting.

- 353 says Llarmable lied about his read-through timeline, and that he boosts about his content like cornered scum.

It looks like Bub has a point but I only read it as a lie/mistake. Llarmable had no reason to lie that I can see. The part about content is subjective coming from Bub, because most of it is an investigation he is against. As a neutral party I do see enough content that I could expect from a player replacing under these circumstances. I like that Llarmable pointed out the examples of people lining up lynches, or at least having suspects on the condition that so and so flips first (but alot of people did it so it might not be as reliable as the suspicion sounds). He also tries to be involved in other discussions like the Whisky lie/sarcasm, so there is content from llarmable. I don't see evidence of it being hollow or forced.

DLG case on llarmable:
-343 says llarmable flip-flopped on Daria because she hadn't done anything between his posts to warrant a flop, says he buys time for strategy, implies llarmable called bobs town for his stance on Bub, and tries to stall his wagon.

Llarmable did not re-think Daria based on current events, it looked clear that he was still reading past events and he talked about it that way in that post. I don't understand the "buying time" argument either because the earlier quote suggests llarmable saw the ender case but did not understand it. So it actually does make sense that he would take another look at the ender case if he was town or scum. The part about bobs is a valid point to think about. Llarmable is clearly forming his bobsnox read using the confidence he has that Bub is scum. It looks similar to the purpose behind "setting up mislynches on a single player's alignment", but the affect on bobs is less clear here. And finally the "stalling" argument is null because town would try anything to survive just like scum. Its a circumstantial tell only.

- 396 uses the argument that ender also looked like scum.

Personally my read was incomplete when ender replaced out. He didn't defend against himself and I never got an answer for why he didn't re-vote Final Fires right away after learning he could without hammering. It bugged me, but I don't know if he actually had a reason or not because he never said. So he's still just a person of interest in my eyes.

---------

Its been said before but ender made a mess of his role, he wasnt scum he was new to this. Llmarble doent deserve this wagon.

A wagon you've read through? Can you honestly say you know why people are voting llarmable for things llarmble has said/done?

[Final Fires]

Its been said before but ender made a mess of his role, he wasnt scum he was new to this. Llmarble doent deserve this wagon.

Whisky you keep contradicting yourself, and in your last post you sounded very confident that ender is town. Like bob and cmar pointed out, you saying "made a mess of his role" assumes you know that he's town.

Nikanor you asked us to wait for you to weigh in before hammering. In the time that took, the llama wagon derailed. Potential stalling? If llama is scum we should keep an eye on him. For now though I've still got a null read on Nik.

Llama makes a good point on 409. The more he posts the less I'm sure of my read on him, because he seems to really believe what he's writing. Plus I'm grateful that he is at least active, which means in the future (if he is scum) it'll be easier to catch him in a lie. He's still on my scummy list, but I think whisky is a safer vote right now. I've mentioned all of the reasons that I think whisky is suspicious in past posts. If anyone wants me to I can go dig up my reasoning again, but for now I don't want to be repeating myself.

Unvote

Vote: Whisky

Like I've said before, I would prefer a whisky lynch over a bub one. He's barely posting right now in the hopes that the bandwagon will stay off of him.

The fishy "bandwagon" looks like bob is just upset fishy put suspicion on him. The case itself isn't solid, and fishy defended himself well.

I can't tell if nik's vote is serious or not.

I agree with the bobsnox "wagon", but whisky is higher up on my scumlist.

[MoreWhisky]

Hey MW, do you want to join the budding DLG wagon? I'm sure it has the potential to go far, and I can certainly make it worth your while.
Plus, when DLG flips scum you'll get town points for being one of the first on the wagon. Even if you're town, you can't deny that you need that boost to avoid being lynched within the next couple of days.

Thanks for the offer Nikano , but theres more important potential scum out there at moment, my votes stand for the mo.

[Nikanor]

Supported lynches:
Llamarble
Darla
Nikanor
Whisky
Fishy
Bub

What a long list! Personally, I feel privileged to reside in the esteemed company of ones such as Llamarble, Darla and Fishy.

Nikanor you asked us to wait for you to weigh in before hammering. In the time that took, the llama wagon derailed. Potential stalling? If llama is scum we should keep an eye on him. For now though I've still got a null read on Nik.

You know that I've called Llama town, right? Meaning I

want

his wagon derailed.
And my vote is very serious. Mafia is serious business and this is no time to be fooling around. There is evil afoot!

[CryMeARiver]

*feels that the bandwagon analysis was useless due to no reactions to it*

[DLG]

says llarmable flip-flopped on Daria because she hadn't done anything between his posts to warrant a flop

That is not what I said. Here is what I said.

What happened, the only thing that happened, in between these two was a vote-count which showed DarlaBlueEyes with 6 votes. Scum motive to flip-flop? Blend into the crowd. Don't stand out. Stay off the radar.

For reference, look at Game Posts #275 - #277.

I like seeing votes going on MoreWhisky. He still refuses to address what I call a lie, and several players have tried to give him an out of being sarcastic. Here is the quote again.

Darla and ender being scum together? wow i would have never thought of that

but it seems to make sense.

Top idea Bob

im gona look into that more.

Remove the bolded portions and I could accept it was sarcasm. With them, however, this was not sarcasm. I believe this lie was the single scummiest thing in the game so far. His continued refusal to even acknowledge there is a question surrounding it supports my belief he is scum. FinalFires has caught him contradicting himself several other times. Par for the course, MoreWhisky simply ignores these charges in the hopes they will go away.

I can't vote in two places at once, and the vast majority of my suspicion of Llamarble rests on my ender241 read. I think Llamarble's case on Bub Bidderskins is sincere. I think it a case of genuine scum hunting from a scum slot. That would mean a multi-faction game, and while there is a possibility of that, there is no guarantee of it.

So there is no misunderstanding, I will have no hesitation hammering Llamarble if his wagon goes back to L-1. But, of the two, I think there is less reason to doubt that MoreWhisky is scum. Therefore,

UNVOTE: Llamarble
VOTE: MoreWhisky

[bobsnox]

Welcome Werewolf!

On a reread it looks like DLG may actually believe what he's saying, so he moves to somewhere between null and town.
I don't particularly like Yosarian's ISO but I've never played with him and it's certainly not in the same scumminess league as Bub.
That scumslip of Bub's I pointed out most recently needs comments.
Do all you people not voting Bub really buy that he's a townie who was most suspicious of Darla in spite of her making what he agreed was a respectable case against Bobsnox? And then he immediately turned around and said that it was notable she was continuing to move her vote around?? When was it ever bad to make a reasonable case against somebody and move your vote to them?? When I read that post of his I felt like he knew Darla believed what she was saying, which does not make sense if he thinks she's scum.

Interesting. And my wagon analysis does support this. I still prefer Bob at this point.

you gotta be kidding me. me over bub?

oh hey don't worry about me voting Fishythefish or anything

[bobsnox]

Supported lynches:
Llamarble
Darla
Nikanor
Whisky
Fishy
Bub

What a long list! Personally, I feel privileged to reside in the esteemed company of ones such as Llamarble, Darla and Fishy.

Nikanor you asked us to wait for you to weigh in before hammering. In the time that took, the llama wagon derailed. Potential stalling? If llama is scum we should keep an eye on him. For now though I've still got a null read on Nik.

You know that I've called Llama town, right? Meaning I

want

his wagon derailed.
And my vote is very serious. Mafia is serious business and this is no time to be fooling around. There is evil afoot!

Nikanor why are you

skimming

Llamarble's posts? That's extremely scummy behavior.

[bobsnox]

*feels that the bandwagon analysis was useless due to no reactions to it*

It is useless because you picked the wrong guy for bad reasons.

[bobsnox]

Hey MW, do you want to join the budding DLG wagon? I'm sure it has the potential to go far, and I can certainly make it worth your while.
Plus, when DLG flips scum you'll get town points for being one of the first on the wagon. Even if you're town, you can't deny that you need that boost to avoid being lynched within the next couple of days.

Thanks for the offer Nikano , but theres more important potential scum out there at moment, my votes stand for the mo.

do you just play drunk or something?

[bobsnox]

Can someone please just vig MoreWhisky tonight? I feel like he's just playing stupidly.

Crymeariver - I'll just say I honestly thought you had something interesting in your bandwagon case except for when you concluded that I was scummier than bub. You almost convinced me to vote for him.

[CryMeARiver]

Can someone please just vig MoreWhisky tonight? I feel like he's just playing stupidly.

Crymeariver - I'll just say I honestly thought you had something interesting in your bandwagon case except for when you concluded that I was scummier than bub. You almost convinced me to vote for him.

Meh, it was on the basis that his early play was rather protown and his bandwagon shifting was a tad different than yours.

[Fishythefish]

@Nik: I would gladly lynch DLG.

[Nikanor]

Nikanor why are you skimming Llamarble's posts? That's extremely scummy behavior.

I can't help it. It's just the way I am. See this picture of me for reference:



Fishy: You should prob vote for him, then.