Mafia 124 - Dilemma Mafia (Day 6)

[bobsnox]

Why is Fishy so darn sure Llamarble would flip town?

gosh

There is no shot I'm going to be on the same wagon as Darla, Nikanor and whoever else some of the scumbags are who are voting Whisky right now. I will only join if I absolutely have to to avoid a no-lynch. I think I stated or insinuated earlier that MoreWhisky might just be bad - just a bad player.

I am completely with DLG about the evaporation of the two leading bandwagons. Ridiculous.

Some more food for thought: why was Llamarble so darn desperate to stay alive if he's just a VT?

CryMeaRiver - have you not realized your bandwagon theory is invalid yet? I'm pretty sure I was voting Fishy before you came up with it. Makes no sense according to your scheme. Time to find a new target.

[Llamarble]

I don't think Whiskey is scum either, though I'm in the middle of a post on that.
Let's lynch BB.

I try hard not to get lynched as all roles and all alignments.
Not getting lynched is playing toward your wincon unless you're a jester.
Also VT happens to be my favorite normal role.

[brokenscraps]

Also VT happens to be my favorite normal role.

You prefer VT to mason? For reals?

[Final Fires]

Bobsnox, were you not satisfied with Fishy's defense against your case? (Post 391)

[Llamarble]

VT is very "pure." I play because I like trying to read people and I like trying to get people to agree with me, which is all a VT does.
Also I like that if I draw the scumNK I have done a good thing.
I certainly enjoy other roles too though.

Still figuring out Whiskey (and reading other games).

[Llamarble]

Whiskey is town, I think.
His ISO makes sense. I looked at his meta and his play as townie in a newbie game isn't dissimilar from his play here.
I think he believes what he's saying and his logic looks like town logic even if I don't agree with him in places.
Why are we lynching him again?
I looked through everyone's cases, and it's basically because of this post:

sorry guys on phone here, gonna try to get to what I can see

@DLG - My stance on ender is simply Meta. The other game we participated in he acted exactly the same, blatant scum moves, and ended up we killed our doc due to other factors which I don't want to elaborate on due to the game being on going. If you want to see it yourself it's Newbie #1045. I am not disregarding his actions but I know this is how he plays as town, and granted I haven't seen him as scum either, I honestly just see him as a n00b and do not like his wagon. My guess is that we have at least one if not two scum on that wagon because he's made himself the perfect target for a scum push. As for Fires I don't know, I just get a noob vibes off him. Between he and ender I'd be more inclined to do an ender lynch, but again, I would need something more blatant from him to make me think he wasn't actually town given the meta I have.

Whiskey - thank you for elaborating and to everyone jumping on me for using a vote to get that answer out of him, pardon me if I felt that something needed to be done to get his attention since he ignored me twice

unvote

I am still not sure what Whiskey sees as so scummy about Yos, and not Bob / Jahudo who're also on the ender wagon, but it's worthy of a look back at Yos' posts for me. Maybe he's seeing something I'm not, (although it'd be helpful if he articulated it more clearly if he is town.)

Right now I'd like to see more from Albie. So far his posts have been primarily fluff, o/t or one or two lines.

more coming when i am not on my phone. and apologies if autocorrect did anything wonky in this post, no time to check it.

I really dont like this post you seem to be all over that place finding someone to pin the scum tag on. I also dont like how u ask someone a question about there actions on other players, normally this is sort of ok but here im sure this is another tactic to deflect the chat from you.

And whats all this phone business? we all have stuff to do. have some more time on the phone

vote Darla

I agree that this case is weak. I also think he believes it. "Pinning the scumtag" means the same thing as "fake scumhunting." So he thinks she is fake scumhunting. I disagree, but I don't find it difficult to believe TownWhisky believes a pattern of moving votes around indicates scumminess. The phone stuff is null. He thinks she's making excuses, it gets explained, and he later apologizes.

The contradiction business is explained completely by realizing he's sarcastic there.
I'd let him defend himself but there isn't really time.

[Empking]

Vote Count 19

1. bobsnox (1) - , CMAR
2. DarlaBlueEyes (1) - MoreWhisky,
3. werewolf555
4. DLG
5. Jahudo
6. Bub Bidderskins (2) - Llarmable, Fishythefish
7. Fishythefish (1) - bobsnox
8. Brokenscraps
9. CryMeARiver
10. Nikanor
11. Yosarian2
12. Final Fires
13. Llarmable (4) - Yosarian2, Bub Bidderskins, werewolf555
14. MoreWhisky (6) - Jahudo, Final Fires, DLG, Nikanor, DarlaBlueEyes, Brokenscraps


Not Voting:


With 14 alive its 8 to lynch.

[Fishythefish]

Thoughts on MW and MW's wagon:

- Didn't like MW's very first content post (iso 1), fencesitting on FF. However, in iso 2 he comes down on the right side of the fence, saying that FF's explanation was believable.
- MW points to some ender behaviour, but calls it null. Feels potentially like coaching a scumbuddy. Yos jumps on the same points and attacks ender, and MW goes after Yos. Not sure about this. It feels good - like MW believes in his reads. On the other hand, it could be a chainsaw defence. Not scummy for me, but does contribute to an ender-MW link.
- This bothered me, after Yos called ender scummy:

I totally agree with you saying Ender is more bothered with his apperence, but i see that more of a newbie act than scum. I suspose we will eventually find out whos right.

Doesn't really feel like a townie attitude - if you agree with someone about some facts, but not the conclusion, then it's not natural to be content to find out later. I'd have expected MWtown to continue the argument, particularly as he had found Yos's side of it scummy. Again, fits pretty well with an ender-MW team.
- Phone business is totally null for me.
- The lie. I've been waiting for MW to clarify this (just in case I was wrong and MWscum had genuinely slipped) my reading of that post was definitely as sarcastic.

Wagons, in order of how much I like them:
BB = DLG (horrible jumps onto Llama)
DBE (nothing much has changed - still pretty scummy)
Llama (much better information lynch than others, and could definitely be scum if we are in multiscum or I'm wrong about BB/DLG)
MW (really only scummy if Llama is scum)

UNVOTE:
VOTE: DLG

[brokenscraps]

I agree that this case is weak.

Whisky didn't just have a bad case, he is vote-parking on it even after admitting that a big part of it (the phone) was garbage. He didn't find Darla's scumhunting problematic prior to that post and while I can believe seeing scummy play where I don't I find it harder to believe seeing that as scummy play and not her earlier play. And some parts of his ISO read more of making a player look scummy instead of looking for genuine scumtells ("One thing that is going on in this town is that your better of not posting, I say that as this is what Darla is doing now(even if these reasons are very genuine) and its working!"; this could just be trying to get players to pay attention to the Darla case despite her absence but it reads like he intended people to view her genuine difficulty with being active as scummy).

Also odd that Whisky wouldn't switch to you when he was sure of a DBE/Llamarble scumteam and the Llama wagon was finding more success; why would he care which of the scum he lynched? Will be something to look at again when he/you flip.

[bobsnox]

I agree that this case is weak.

...

Also odd that Whisky wouldn't switch to you when he was sure of a DBE/Llamarble scumteam and the Llama wagon was finding more success; why would he care which of the scum he lynched? Will be something to look at again when he/you flip.

Hmmm good point right there...

[bobsnox]

Bobsnox, were you not satisfied with Fishy's defense against your case? (Post 391)

Eliminating half the ways a player could be scum makes it half as likely they are scum. In fact, not being scum with BB eliminates

more

than that - because there's a decent chance there's only one team. It's crazy to say that just because there might be two scumteams, one player being scum can't make another

more likely

to be town.

Even if I knew there were two scumteams, so what? BB is scummier than Llama. Nothing I'm saying relies on there only being one scumteam.

Nope. Doesn't make sense. Particularly "It's crazy to say that just because there might be two scumteams, one player being scum can't make another

more likely

to be town." That doesn't sound logical at all. There is no basis to assume that anyone doing some scumhunting at this stage is not hunting an opposing mafia faction (unless there's only one faction, which is yet to be determined). How then would someone's scum alignment in any way correspond to another person's town alignment?

I can't honestly say I understand his points though. If there is only one mafia faction then he sort of makes sense, but otherwise he seems to be begging the question and drawing unnecessary conclusions.

[Fishythefish]

Currently there are 3 ways for Llama to be scum -
- There is one scumteam, and Llama is on it.
- There are two scumteams, and Llama is on scumteam A.
- There are two scumteams, and Llama is on scumteam B.

Suppose

the mod came down and declared in a voice of thunder that BB was scum, and Llama was not his partner. Then two of these three possibilities disappear. Just because it is

still possible

that Llama is scum, doesn't mean that it is

just as likely

as it was before.

In the case of multiscum, to put it one more way: let's go with the (probably good) assumption that if there are two scumteams, they each have two scum on them. Under the same assumption (BBscum, Llama not scum with him), Llama has had an interaction with a scumbag that rules out his being partners with that scumbag. A town player has 4 opportunities to have such an interaction (one for each scumbag), and a scum player has 2 (one for each scumbag not on his team).

I understand that this kind of thing is not obvious, and some of the reasoning (particularly in the multiscum case) is not particularly "intuitive". It is right, though. I withdraw calling your statements crazy, actually - that's totally unfair of me.

I agree that people doing scumhunting is not a towntell in multiscum. I don't believe that has entered the argument.

Deadline has got too close for me not to be on one of the biggest two wagons. With a heavy heart,
VOTE: Llama

[Jahudo]

@Yosarian: Can you give some examples of llarmable doing what you mentioned here:

It feels like when he got in trouble, he just spammed up the thread with a bunch of garbage,

[Yosarian2]

@Yosarian: Can you give some examples of llarmable doing what you mentioned here:

It feels like when he got in trouble, he just spammed up the thread with a bunch of garbage,

Basically, Llamable got to 6 votes on post 308, at 6 PM January 29th; the response to this was an absolute flood of posts from him, and in the next 32 hours or so, he made 22 posts, some of them quite long. Now, again, there's nothing wrong with posting a lot; that's not a sign of alignment, either way. A lot of the content of those posts, though, was really iffy, and most of it just feels like wild flailing, mostly directed at the people attacking him. Post 7 included a vague attack at "scum piling on his wagon"; post 8 he attacks Bub; post 9 he attacks FF for voting him; post 10 he attacks DLG for voting him. Post 11 he calls whisky a buddy of Bub. Post 13 he changes his mind and calls FF town again; post 15 he calls me and Fishy buddies of Bub and defends whisky, while post 16 he calls whiskey scum again. Note this is all within a 4 hour period, and right after he gets to lynch -1.

It really does look like when his back was against the wall, Llamble's response was to just try to flood the thread with posts; the posts don't look like a coherent attempt to scumhunt at all, more like a series of wild swings in a last ditch attempt to go after or discredit anyone and everyone who was attacking him. Also some weird stuff going on here with him and whiskey, he keeps swinging back and fourth between calling whiskey scum and defending him, and this continues.

It all looks to me like a scum trying to fight his way out of a corner. I'm trying to avoid using the word "spamming", since he got offended by that and it's really not accurate (it was all game-related stuff, for one thing), but the key thing here is that posting a lot when he gets in trouble is not a town tell here at all, and it feels like people are treating it like one.

[Nikanor]

Deadline has got too close for me not to be on one of the biggest two wagons. With a heavy heart,
VOTE: Llama

I cannot even begin to explain how many things are wrong with this.
Somebody vig this guy.

[bobsnox]

Ok Fishy I can respect that.

You've been downgraded to an FoS.

"heavy heart" <_<

UNVOTE: Fishythefish

VOTE: Llamarble

Let's do this.

[DarlaBlueEyes]

Fine. I'll bite because I want a lynch.

vote Llama

that's L-2. Two more people vote this.

[MoreWhisky]

Thats a scummy reason for a lynch if there ever was one Darla.

Impatient to NK are we?

[Final Fires]

Fine. I'll bite because I want a lynch.

vote Llama

that's L-2. Two more people vote this.

I might be wrong, but I think that's L-1. Would anyone be opposed if I go ahead and hammer? This deadline is getting too close and I'm afraid waiting much longer might result in another derailed bandwagon.

[DLG]

I might be wrong, but I think that's L-1. Would anyone be opposed if I go ahead and hammer? This deadline is getting too close and I'm afraid waiting much longer might result in another derailed bandwagon.

I disagree with your count. By my count, we are at L-2 on both MoreWhisky and Llamarble.

[DLG]

Correction. DarlaBlueEyes' vote move made it 6 on Llamarble and 5 on MoreWhisky.

Better yet.

@ Empking: Could we have a vote count, please?

[Final Fires]

The last vote update shows that llama has four votes, but it only shows three names (he's gotten three votes since). I assumed that there had been a double voter, but it could just be a mistake. I'll hold off voting just for a little so that I don't accidently hammer.

And Darla, is the only reason you're voting for llama to get a lynch at this point? Or are there others? It would be nice to get your final opinion on record before llama flips.

[DLG]

Currently there are 3 ways for Llama to be scum -
- There is one scumteam, and Llama is on it.
- There are two scumteams, and Llama is on scumteam A.
- There are two scumteams, and Llama is on scumteam B.
Suppose the mod came down and declared in a voice of thunder that BB was scum, and Llama was not his partner. Then two of these three possibilities disappear. Just because it is still possible that Llama is scum, doesn't mean that it is just as likely as it was before.

Nope. You missed SK. Four ways. 50/50.

[werewolf555]

And Darla, is the only reason you're voting for llama to get a lynch at this point? Or are there others? It would be nice to get your final opinion on record before llama flips.

FF
When you say "flip" do you assume that LL is scum, and that he will flip scum. Also, if you are so sure of yourself, why don't you hammer?
Please clarify

[Llamarble]

Yikes, looks like I'm getting lynched again. Precisely how soon is the deadline?

Okay, insincere scumhunting is basically the best tell we have. All others are secondary. So assuming the scum are scumhunting basically throws out 80% of the information we can use to find scum. This is why I don't worry about multiscums D1.

And we should lynch Bub because:
FOS Nik with questions followed by Nik is too VI to be scum with nothing in between from Nik
Voteparked on Darla with weak case. While voteparked there, he
A. Attacks the people he supposedly thinks are helping him lynch scum.
B. Says Darla is doing good scumhunting.
C. Says that changing her vote due to good scumhunting is scummy.
Specifically he says that Bobsnox is probably scum if she is town and calls her out for moving her vote to Bobsnox...
Then suddenly he jumps onto my BW after I call him out as scum simply because the "Darla wagon isn't going anywhere." Hardly a town reason to change wagons, and incredibly insufficient reasoning to stop attacking someone you've been calling scum for a long time.