@Kdub-
Kdub wrote:I'm just going to point out that you have started with the assumption that you are town, which from my point of view (and the point of view of any other town player), can't be assumed up front, and probably changes your scenarios quite a bit when we account for those probabilities.
Kast wrote:If you absolutely don't trust that I have redirection (ie. it conflicts with your role or whatever), then many of the cases in which my redirection is used to stop a kill switch from town win/stalemate into town loss/stalemate.
Kdub wrote:You presented two scenarios in which there is one Black (the recruiter) based on your "expected" setup, neither of which included you as scum
This proves you didn't read my post. Read again you are completely wrong. I posted three "scenarios" one in which I am the Black Recruiter, one in which I am not the Black Recruiter (KK is the probable one but who it is specifically is
IRRELEVANT TO THE ANALYSIS
), and one in which there is no Black Recruiter (I didn't go into this one in depth). Within the scenario in which there IS a Black Recruiter AND it is NOT ME, I went through MULTIPLE CHAINS that each have
NOTHING AT ALL TO DO
with Kast as
SCUM OR TOWN
.
Your decision to call me scum and use that as an excuse to ignore reading (or just read bits and pieces of) the analysis is ridiculous. Everything I posted is completely transparent and evaluating them from a logical/rational PoV is independent of my affiliation.
If you believe I am town, then my DEMONSTRABLE redirection turns some Town Loss cases into potential Win/Stalemates. If you don't, then they become losses. Treating them as losses (ie. assuming Kast non-Black Scum) doesn't change the fact that lynching Black or Yellow
TODAY
gives town a lower chance of winning than lynching Red or Orange and eliminating a Night Kill.
Kdub wrote:It's hard to take you seriously when you focus on a limited number of scenarios and then complain about me not reading when I think you know very well that you are trying to cover for yourself.
Lulz pure nonsense. "I'm not reading the whole thing because you might be scum. Reading one part out of context sounds like you only talked about one aspect. You're probably trying to convince us of something."
There's an infinite space for possible scenarios. I covered the most probable/widely believed situations. Even then, it's already too much for you to even attempt reading through as you've already admitted. If I included pages of additional but less probable and practically irrelevant ones, it would only give you more "reasons" to avoid reading. Obviously if you just read one case you won't get the analysis on the other cases that you chose to not read. And OBVIOUSLY I want people to consider my analysis when making decisions today/tonight. Is there another reason for posting analysis and DIRECTLY ASKING PEOPLE TO CONSIDER IT?
Kdub wrote:Your last post continues to take the most pessimistic views of the game situation rather than the most realistic.
If you think any of my analyses or conclusions are unrealistic, then explain how. If you're just whining because you looked at a case about A, ignored the case about B, then complain that the case about A isn't about B...
RTFP!!
I can't help you if you're trying to be stupid; you're the one who chose to not read the case about B.
Also, WTF!?!>@? YOU asked ME to analyse the first scenario (Kast as BLACK RECRUITER) if we don't lynch the BLACK RECRUITER.
YOU
are claiming it's the
SAME REASONING
, but it shows town has
BETTER CHANCES
; WTH are you whining about?!?@? Are you even trying to make sense?
@Andy/NPIAU-
-Good move. Reducing NKs is the way to go.
--On the off chance that NPIAU flips green, that'll leave Kage as nigh confirmed scum; keep that in mind if you want to look at Greens tonight.
-I hope you're not expecting scum to shoot at Black. If you are determined to think I'm the Black Recruiter, you need your vig to shoot at me. Being coy about it is just going to cause confusion; especially when scum NK you and Kdub so you're not around to explain things (
because as much as you both wish it won't happen, that's the obvious move for scum
).
--If you want to kill Red, then AGM is more probable than Tans.
