Mafia 124 - Dilemma Mafia (Day 6)

[Llamarble]

Also new reads because I have to go and may be dead before I get back.

Town:
Llama
Fishy
Darla
Whisky
FF
Bobsnox
Jahudo

Neuteral
Nik
DLG
Broken
CMAR

Scum:
Bub
Werewolf
Yosarian

[brokenscraps]

Deadline is still two days away, close but not as close as some are making it seem

DLG, that is garbage statistics, four ways does not mean 50/50.

Curious as to why Fish reinvigorated the Llamarble wagon rather than hopping on the at that stage larger (I'm pretty sure) whisky wagon considering how heavy hearted he was about the whole thing.

@Llamarble: would you vote whisky to prevent a no-lynch?

[Final Fires]

FF
When you say "flip" do you assume that LL is scum, and that he will flip scum. Also, if you are so sure of yourself, why don't you hammer?
Please clarify

When I said "flip" I meant flip either way - town or scum.

I think that llama is scummy, but I'm not sure if he's scum. It didn't help his case that he got ender's slot, who had been towards the top of my scum list from the start. At this point I would prefer if morewhisky was lynched, but that's obviously not going to happen. See post 412 if you want a more detailed description of my most recent opinion on whisky/llama.

I'm waiting the town's approval before I hammer. If there's anything else that needs to be quickly discussed or finished I would like to give everyone the opportunity to do so before we move in to the night phase. With that being said...

Yikes, looks like I'm getting lynched again. Precisely how soon is the deadline?

I believe it's in a day or two, but I'm not sure if it's tonight, so I won't hold off hammering for too long (ninja'd - two days according to brokenscraps). If no one objects, I will hammer later tonight. Assuming that the 4 total votes against llama wasn't a typo. If it was, me voting tonight will allow someone the time to change their vote for a lynch tommorow.

[bobsnox]

I'm waiting the town's approval before I hammer. If there's anything else that needs to be quickly discussed or finished I would like to give everyone the opportunity to do so before we move in to the night phase.

Yeah I have something to discuss: someone vig Darla tonight. That last post was megascummy.

Or vig Bub Bidderskins (if Llamarble flips town). I like Llamarble's and CryMeaRiver's points against him if Llamarble flips town.

[DLG]

DLG, that is garbage statistics, four ways does not mean 50/50.

Confined solely to the hypothetical situation Fishythefish presented, it does. Two cases he is not scum. Two ways he could be.

[brokenscraps]

DLG, that is garbage statistics, four ways does not mean 50/50.

Confined solely to the hypothetical situation Fishythefish presented, it does. Two cases he is not scum. Two ways he could be.

The world either ends tomorrow or it doesn't, therefore there is a 50% chance of the world ending tomorrow.

[DLG]

The world either ends tomorrow or it doesn't, therefore there is a 50% chance of the world ending tomorrow.

Not the same thing.

In yours, there are an unspecified number of days. In this case, we have a confined set of possibilitie. His argument is that 2 of 3 possibilities are eliminated by the hypothetical mod statement. Therefore, it is not equally likely. I counter with the fact that there are really 4 ways, and eliminating two leaves two. It is equally likely.

If you prefaced your statement with there are two days on which the world can end, then it would be the same argument, and the conclusion would be correct.

[Yosarian2]

Okay, insincere scumhunting is basically the best tell we have. All others are secondary.

Yes, it is.

For example:

Scum:
Bub
Werewolf
Yosarian

Which, other then Bub, has absolutely nothing to do with the "scumhunting" Llamarble did early.

Also, i notice that somehow on this most recent list, Whiskey has wandered back up to the town category, again with no explanation.

I'm becoming incresinly confidnent that Llamarble and Whiskey are scum together here.

[DLG]

@ brokenscraps
Keep in mind that the 50/50 is only applicable as it applies to Llamarble being scum specifically as his alignment is related to Bub Bidderskins being scum. That is the root of this debate, and why I think it was game related enough to discuss with you in thread.

[Llamarble]

I would vote Whisky to prevent a no-lynch.
And I gave my updated reads without my reasoning because I had to leave and thought I might be dead before getting a chance to post again.
Yos and Werewolf are a ways behind Bub on the scum totem-pole, but Werewolf showed up and voted me for no stated reason after flinter basically just joined the Darla wagon.
Yos seems too experienced of a player not to have town on me at this point (haha burden of proficiency), and he has been voting the enderslot the entire game. Also many of his arguments have a twisty feel to them.

But Bub is really miles ahead of these two in obvscumness.

[Final Fires]

It doesn't sound like any one is in opposition.

Vote: Llama

Not sure if this is the hammer or not. We might still need one more vote for a lynch.

[Fishythefish]

Deadline has got too close for me not to be on one of the biggest two wagons. With a heavy heart,
VOTE: Llama

I cannot even begin to explain how many things are wrong with this.
Somebody vig this guy.

There is no way I'm getting a lynch on my preferred targets. I'm voting for the most scummy player I feel is realistic to get lynched. I don't particularly like it, but it's better than any of my other options. I don't see your problem.

@DLG: I did miss SK. That's totally irrelevant. Point is that ruling out options for Llama to be scum makes him less likely scum. brokenscraps is right about the statistics, but that's even more irrelevant.

@scraps: I don't like either of these wagons. I like the Llama one a little more.

[Llamarble]

Okay at this point it looks like Bubscum will have to wait.
VOTE: Morewhisky
Hopefully I'm wrong and he's scum.

[Final Fires]

Unvote: Llama
Vote: Whisky

Sorry to keep flipping my vote. I think I've made it clear that I would prefer a whisky lynch over a llama one, even though I would be happy with either. Especially when I look at who's voting for who, a lot of the people who I'm suspicious of are voting llama, where as most of the people I have town reads on are voting whisky. Overall I think the whisky vote is much safer, and now that I'm looking at the votes, more town driven lynch than the llama wagon.

This puts whisky at L-1, llama at L-2 I believe.

[Nikanor]

incresinly confidnent

How drunk are you?

Also, Fishy and DLG scumteam ftw. Seriously.

[DarlaBlueEyes]

I prefer whiskey lynch too. I'll hammer after he claims.

[Final Fires]

Also, I can't believe I missed this earlier:

Fine. I'll bite because I want a lynch.

vote Llama

that's L-2. Two more people vote this.

This is a lie. The whisky bandwagon that Darla was on was already at L-2 before she unvoted. Whatever darla's reasons for switching her vote, it wasn't because she wanted a lynch - whether she had voted for llama or whisky they both would've been at L-2. Darla definately had a different motive for switching her vote over to llama.

It surprises me that she would vote llama over whisky too. Especially because earlier in the game she was trying to protect ender, and attack whisky. But then when she gets the opportunity to decide which one is at L-2, she votes for llama/ender?

Whoops, ninja'd! Darla if you prefer a whisky lynch over a llama one, why did you switch your vote a while back to llama instead of keeping it at whisky?

(This might be a null point now, but I thought it was still worth sharing)

Whisky please claim

[DarlaBlueEyes]

Um, who are you to tell me what my motives are? You read minds or something? No.

I saw the Whiskey wagon beginning to deteriorate and wanted to ensure we had a lynch rather than a no-lynch. In the future maybe you should ~question~ a person instead of telling them their proclaimed reasoning is a lie. All you ever had is what someone tells you and what they prove in this game, so.

[Final Fires]

But the whisky bandwagon wasn't deteriorating. It was at L-2 when you switched your vote.

I can't read minds, but I can read actions. By switching your vote you put the whisky wagon at L-3, and the llama wagon at L-2. That was no closer to a lynch then your original vote (where whisky was at L-2 and llama L-3) - but you claimed you switched your vote because you "want[ed] to lynch". Switching your vote did nothing to accomplish that.

[Final Fires]

(And I did question you, by the way, post 471. However you didn't respond, so I assumed you were just brushing off the question.)

[DarlaBlueEyes]

I actually missed your question, I'm sorry about that and as for the switch I mistook the votes right before mine as having been subtracted from Whiskey. I didn't take the time to check which was my bad, but I thought the wagon had just fallen apart and moved BACK to Llama hence my vote swap back over. I wanted a lynch and both Llama and Whiskey were appealing to me and yeah. I thought the bob and fish vote changes were coming off of whiksey because I didn't actually check.

that's the reasoning for all of this

[MoreWhisky]

Right guys you want me to claim ? i will but i would really appreciate it if some votes could come off me first, the reason is as soon as i claim certain ppl in a faction will hammer me. I will also need doc protection tonight. Its up to you lot.

[Llamarble]

Unvote

Go ahead.

[MoreWhisky]

Can i have a vote count please ? and im glad you did that llmarble as your vote was a bit scummy and ive got you down as town my faith is restored ).

[Llamarble]

Uh you're presumably at L-2 now.