Mafia 124 - Dilemma Mafia (Day 6)

[brokenscraps]

Don't have much time, but there is scum on this small early wagon:

12. Final Fires (4) - Brokenscraps, Bub Bidderskins, bobsnox, ender241

CMAR doesn't have time to explain anything but has time to go back and check an early wagon before making their "I don't have time" post? Also blanket and fairly unexplained. However, I'll agree it is interesting to look at and I'd guess there'd probably be a scum there too. Just don't love the way you presented it.

[Empking]

Vote Count 22

1. bobsnox
2. DarlaBlueEyes
3. werewolf555
4. DLG
5. Jahudo
6. Bub Bidderskins (1) - Fishythefish
7. Fishythefish (2) - Nikanor, DLG
8. Brokenscraps
9. CryMeARiver
10. Nikanor
11. Yosarian2
13. llarmable (1) - bobsnox

Not Voting: DarlaBlueEyes, werewolf555, Jahudo, Bub Bidderskins, brokenscraps, CryMeARiver, Yosarian2, llamarble

With 12 alive its 7 to lynch

[bobsnox]

lol I vote in !'s now

[Jahudo]

@Darla: What was the main reason for switching to Whisky in post 440? Was it better than a bobs lynch or was it more about lack of time left? Why didn't you mention bobs at all then? Did something make you think the wagons were too far apart to make bobs the more viable lynch? Or was there another reason you compromised before trying to get others to compromise to you?

Fishythefish is the player with a terribly unjustified vote on Llamarble at the end of Day 1. I cannot imagine a town motivation for selling all out to defend another player, then being willing to be part of potentially lynching that slot.

Do you think his reasons are unjustified in his vote post? Or is it more about him settling on a target that he was defending before that?

[Nikanor]

hey

empking: replace me please.

based on fishy's vote for dlg yesterday then quick switch to llamarble, i think that dlg and fishy are scum together. you guys should really lynch fishy today and i hope that my replacement keeps my vote where it is (on fishy).
bye everyone, good luck.

[Fishythefish]

That quick switch came because I noticed a looming deadline. It had been in the back of my mind, but I wasn't thinking about it when I voted DLG.

[Jahudo]

No Nikanor, don't go!

Is the DLG-Fishy connection because of the timing of the vote? What about their attitude towards each other?

I think its more likely a scumbuddy would show signs of distancing instead of defending in almost any scenario. The DLG-Fishy interactions don't seem forced, so I don't see how they can look like scumbuddies.

-------

@CryMeARiver: What was your original reasoning for these reads:

Scum
Ender's Slot, now Llarmable
Darla
Bobsnox
Null
Albert's slot, now Flinter (leaning scum)
Pom's slot, now Fishy
Brokenscraps (has remarkably flown under my radar)
Nikanor (leaning scum)
MoreWhisky (leaning scum)

That is alot of people to have as scum/leaning scum and most of them were undeveloped reads.

So how did this comment:

Llarma is town because he thinks his opinion matters.

Overcome your read on ender?

How did it take you until post 407 to decide that Darla's cautiousness was normal for her, when other people had brought up that idea way before that? Did you consider that back in post 352 or did you miss that idea? I can't tell what made you find her behavior scummy in the first place.

Your lack of explanations in the first place make any opinions you give later on seem very convenient. As scum you could have given any reason to drop Llamarble or Darla from your scumlist.

[Nikanor]

sorry jah! it was nice knowing you. i'd be lying if i said i didn't in for this game because i saw your name.
anyway, gotta go! byyyye

[Yosarian2]

1. Quicklynch. You called for someone to hammer Llama when he was clearly producing content, and discussion was very much ongoing. I call that a quicklynch. Your stance seems to be that it isn’t possible to quicklynch someone who has produced some content, which I find ridiculous. If that’s not what you mean in post 36, please clarify.

The idea that a Llama wagon was a "quicklynch", at a point where most of us had already been wagoning that player slot for something like two weeks, when he'd had a chance to respond to everything, and when he had claimed, is kind of crazy.

In fact, if we had lynched him then, like we should have, we wouldn't have had the kind of random deadline bullshit that we did that prevented him from being lynched for no good reason and lynched Whiskey instead. That's why you don't always wait right up until the deadline; when you have a good case on someone, you give them a chance to respond, you give them a chance to claim if they want to, and then you lynch them, you don't stall for another few weeks.

Fishy's overall posting here is bizzare. He was willing to lynch Llama at deadline, after defending him for days, but is upset that DLG was willing to lynch Llama at deadline when DLG had clearly suspected Llama for most of the game? However, we can't let ourselves get sidetracked again today here.

Vote:llarmable

After we lynch him, like we should have yesterday, and he flips scum, then we'll deal with Fishy's crazy attempts to distract from the wagon again; Fishy managed to derail the Llamarble wagon yesterday with a lot of frantic handwaving, I am not willing to let him do it again today.

[Yosarian2]

Actually, Ether put it better then I ever could, in her incredibly funny satire "list of tells" post on MD a while ago, where she went through a long list of ways common scumtells are commonly misused.

Rushing the day - This is when someone tries to achieve a lynch.

https://www.mafiascum.net/archive/viewt ... ed13bce0a7

[Bub Bidderskins]

I'm really sorry I haven't posted much recently, but real life got in the way of my mafia.

Vote: Llamarble

Obvscum here. He was able to deflect his wagon unsuccessfully onto me, and successfully onto More Whisky.

Whisky's claim was pathetic. I can't believe he would do that.

[bobsnox]

where is llamarble and his awesome scumhunting?

[werewolf555]

where is llamarble and his awesome scumhunting?

you're hilarious
I always thought lla was the better choice than whisky, and I stand by it now
VOTE: Llamarble

[DarlaBlueEyes]

I just now noticed it's d2, fail me. Reading what I missed!

[bobsnox]

I will still support a Darla lynch, btw. her level of scumminess has not diminished. she's just flying under the radar

[Llamarble]

I'm really sorry I haven't posted much recently, but real life got in the way of my mafia.

Vote: Llamarble

Obvscum here. He was able to deflect his wagon unsuccessfully onto me, and successfully onto More Whisky.

Whisky's claim was pathetic. I can't believe he would do that.

WHAT?? SUDDENLY I'M OBVSCUM? THIS IS GARBAGE. I didn't "try to deflect my wagon onto morewhisky." I SAID I THOUGHT HE WAS TOWN. THAT IS THE OPPOSITE OF DEFLECTING MY WAGON ONTO SOMEBODY.

VOTE: BUB BIDDERSKINS
My reads are 2/2 so far. I'm starting to feel like Cassandra.

[DLG]

Do you think his reasons are unjustified in his vote post? Or is it more about him settling on a target that he was defending before that?

My first impression was the second reason. After re-reading, though, I'll say that both are bad. It actually started here.

Wagons, in order of how much I like them:
BB = DLG (horrible jumps onto Llama)
DBE (nothing much has changed - still pretty scummy)
Llama (much better information lynch than others, and could definitely be scum if we are in multiscum or I'm wrong about BB/DLG)
MW (really only scummy if Llama is scum)

This looks like a transition post to set-up his vote move.

Deadline has got too close for me not to be on one of the biggest two wagons. With a heavy heart,

This was posted on February 3rd. For a player who was so adamantly pushing the quicklynch is scummy line, I don't understand why he felt he had to be on one of the two biggest wagons with two days left. A much more natural response would have been something like, "Please reconsider. I will only vote Llamarble or MoreWhisky to prevent no-lynch." Plus, the whole tone of the post is still defending Llamarble. These things do not add up.

@ Fishythefish
Game Post #295 bobsnox moves vote to Llamarble.
Game Post #305 Nikanor gives the Llamarble wagon a push.
Game Post #308 Bub Bidderskins moves vote to Llamarble.
Game Post #310 brokenscraps moves vote to Llamarble.
Game Post #313 FinalFires moves vote to Llamarble.
Game Post #315 I promise hammer and request a claim.
Game Post #352 CryMeARiver announces intent to hammer.

How come only two of us, me and Bub Bidderskins were culpable in your eyes for the attempted "quicklynch"?

[CryMeARiver]

Don't have much time, but there is scum on this small early wagon:

12. Final Fires (4) - Brokenscraps, Bub Bidderskins, bobsnox, ender241

CMAR doesn't have time to explain anything but has time to go back and check an early wagon before making their "I don't have time" post? Also blanket and fairly unexplained. However, I'll agree it is interesting to look at and I'd guess there'd probably be a scum there too. Just don't love the way you presented it.

Day of the Super Bowl and right before Mass (which I was a lector at). I had no time. All I had to do for that post was ISO Empking and copy/paste.

My explanation for that is that I'm a firm believer in bandwagon analysis. Right after the vote/unvote by FF, truly, I probably would have placed a vote (especially on page 2) onto FF as Broken and DLG did. However, after the further reasoning (explanation of past offsite experience and ESPECIALLY the softclaim) I would have backed off of him. However, Bub, bob, and ender (ender did it more scummily) both continued to pressure and place their votes on FF after this occurred which I don't find protown at all. Therefore, I imagine at least one scum between bob, Bub, and Llamarble. At this point, Bob has indeed been more protown than Bub and ender/Llama. My vote should stay on one of these two throughout the day unless something ridiculous happens. I'm going to analyze the cases on both and decide which dies first.

Sidenotes:

I have very protown reads on Jahudo, Broken, and Yos, though the first two are more sure in my mind than Yos.
Fishy's play so far has indeed been strange and I 100% agree with Yos's 533.
@Werewolf and Darla: Do something.

[DLG]

My reads are 2/2 so far. I'm starting to feel like Cassandra.

Well, you and the whole damn town were reading FinalFires as town. Not quite so scintillating in that light is it? And, when you had that little interaction with MoreWhisky just prior to him being lynched, here's what you said.

I may not have access enough to vote in time tomorrow and lynching 40%scum60%PR (normally it'd be more like 60%scum but I dropped the percentage due to my read) is better than lynching 100% VT.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for MoreWhisky as Captain McTownie.

I detest "I told you so" posts. Ones that are so blatantly misleading are even worse. Celebrating the deaths of two townies to prop yourself and your reads up is ultra-scummy.

UNVOTE: Fishythefish
VOTE: Llamarble

[Jahudo]

That's a good point about the early Final Fires wagon, CMAR. Bub voted before FF said he came from 24 hour day games, and the tone in Bub's vote was measured like he was in it for pressuring and reactions. ender's vote is questionable.

----------

@werewolf: why do you like the llamarble wagon? All the reasons provided so far? Only some? Any new takes on llamarble or ender?

[bobsnox]

how many is that on llamarble? 5?

Llamarble is at L-2 just so everyone knows.

I really wish we could lynch Llamarble and Fishy today. If anyone thinks Fishy is a better lynch I will join that wagon.

[werewolf555]

I will respond to Jahudo's question later, but I have to sleep and come back from school.
I'll answer in about 24 hours.

[Llamarble]

My reads are 2/2 so far. I'm starting to feel like Cassandra.

Well, you and the whole damn town were reading FinalFires as town. Not quite so scintillating in that light is it? And, when you had that little interaction with MoreWhisky just prior to him being lynched, here's what you said.

I may not have access enough to vote in time tomorrow and lynching 40%scum60%PR (normally it'd be more like 60%scum but I dropped the percentage due to my read) is better than lynching 100% VT.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for MoreWhisky as Captain McTownie.

I detest "I told you so" posts. Ones that are so blatantly misleading are even worse. Celebrating the deaths of two townies to prop yourself and your reads up is ultra-scummy.

UNVOTE: Fishythefish
VOTE: Llamarble

WHAT. YOU ARE ACCUSING ME OF NOT HAVING A TOWNREAD ON WHISKEY BECAUSE I SAID I WOULD RATHER LYNCH HIM THAN MYSELF?? THAT IS RIDICULOUS. I specifically stated in the sentence you quoted that I had a town read on him which was weakened by his PRclaim, which turned out to be fake anyway.

@Jahudo: Who are your suspects and why? I find it hard to tell based on your ISO. Which is not a good sign. And you got on the Whisky wagon for the contradiction-logic, which looked like obvious sarcasm to me.

im joining the escaped prisoners tonight as a prisoner traitor.

This sounds like a traitor role, except traitor is a scum role. If you are not claiming scum, Whisky, how is your role different and why shouldn't we lynch you at this point?

This sounded weird to me. My reaction was "huh, obvious fakeclaim, lynchtime." Your reaction sounds vaguely like "Please claim something else so I don't have to lynch you now that I've learned you're a mafia traitor." Care to explain?

[Yosarian2]

WHAT. YOU ARE ACCUSING ME OF NOT HAVING A TOWNREAD ON WHISKEY BECAUSE I SAID I WOULD RATHER LYNCH HIM THAN MYSELF?? THAT IS RIDICULOUS.

If you say someone is "40% likely to be scum", that's not a town read; that's you saying that the person is better then a random lynch.

"X is 40% likely to be scum" is the same as saying "X is somewhat scummy" or "X is scummier then average". (Remember, a random person is something 25% likely to be scum.) You now claiming, after Whiskey is dead, that that's the same as you having a town read is iffy at best.

I do realize that in earlier posts you had claimed a town read on whiskey, but that is not what you said when push came to shove, and I dislike you trying to revise history here.

I mean, granted, after that horrible fake claim I'd expect you to change your mind. In fact, "40%" seems low after such an obvious lie; it kind of feels like you knew he was going to flip town, despite the horrible fakeclaim, but wanted to lynch him anyway.

[Llamarble]

GO LOOK. THAT WAS AFTER HE SAID HE HAD POWER BUT BEFORE HE MADE HIS RIDICULOUS FAKECLAIM. I stated that because he claimed a PR, and scum near lynch do so a large fraction of the time, he was now substantially more likely to be scum than before. I also STATED THAT MY PRIOR READ ON HIM DID NOT SUGGEST HE WAS SCUM so I adjusted the odds he was scum down by a significant amount. I obviously didn't believe his ridiculous claim when it actually appeared. And I voted him because he was at that point the only alternative to lynching me, the only player I know to be town.