Mafia 124 - Dilemma Mafia (Day 6)

[bobsnox]

FoS everyone not on the Llamarble bandwagon lol

seriously though. why is llamarble still alive?

[bobsnox]

I though scum usually claim VT not PR. Someone (other than Llamarble) correct me if I'm wrong.

And I find it interesting that Llamarble claimed VT (didn't he? I forget now. I'll go look).

[Yosarian2]

GO LOOK. THAT WAS AFTER HE SAID HE HAD POWER BUT BEFORE HE MADE HIS RIDICULOUS FAKECLAIM. I stated that because he claimed a PR, and scum near lynch do so a large fraction of the time, he was now substantially more likely to be scum than before. I also STATED THAT MY PRIOR READ ON HIM DID NOT SUGGEST HE WAS SCUM so I adjusted the odds he was scum down by a significant amount. I obviously didn't believe his ridiculous claim when it actually appeared. And I voted him because he was at that point the only alternative to lynching me, the only player I know to be town.

Wait...so you were MORE willing to lynch him because he claimed to be an unspecified power role? That's kind of absurd.

I though scum usually claim VT not PR. Someone (other than Llamarble) correct me if I'm wrong.

Eh. In theory, scum should probably play PR much of the time when they're in trouble, but in practice, they usually seem to claim VT.

And I find it interesting that Llamarble claimed VT (didn't he? I forget now. I'll go look).

Heh. Yeah, that's another reason to lynch him. You usually want to lynch the claimed VT's, all else being equal.

[Llamarble]

My vote was on him because he was the only alternative to myself.
I also thought he was more likely to be scum because he claimed an unspecified power role. I prefer to lynch scummy players who claim PRs unless they're confirmable because scum typically claim PRs, especially D1 when it typically buys them a night. I wouldn't normally want to lynch a non scummy claimed PR, but it was the only alternative to lynching me. See Mini 1105 for me (as llamagod hydra) lynching a claimed cop D1 (he was scum) if you don't think this is something I normally do.

[Fishythefish]

1. Quicklynch. You called for someone to hammer Llama when he was clearly producing content, and discussion was very much ongoing. I call that a quicklynch. Your stance seems to be that it isn’t possible to quicklynch someone who has produced some content, which I find ridiculous. If that’s not what you mean in post 36, please clarify.

The idea that a Llama wagon was a "quicklynch", at a point where most of us had already been wagoning that player slot for something like two weeks, when he'd had a chance to respond to everything, and when he had claimed, is kind of crazy.

In fact, if we had lynched him then, like we should have, we wouldn't have had the kind of random deadline bullshit that we did that prevented him from being lynched for no good reason and lynched Whiskey instead. That's why you don't always wait right up until the deadline;

when you have a good case on someone, you give them a chance to respond, you give them a chance to claim if they want to, and then you lynch them, you don't stall for another few weeks.

Fishy's overall posting here is bizzare. He was willing to lynch Llama at deadline, after defending him for days, but is upset that DLG was willing to lynch Llama at deadline when DLG had clearly suspected Llama for most of the game? However, we can't let ourselves get sidetracked again today here.

Vote:llarmable

After we lynch him, like we should have yesterday, and he flips scum, then we'll deal with Fishy's crazy attempts to distract from the wagon again; Fishy managed to derail the Llamarble wagon yesterday with a lot of frantic handwaving, I am not willing to let him do it again today.

Bolded mine. Read when DLG asked someone to hammer Llama (344). Llama was quite clearly in the course of responding to the case on him - the argument hadn't settled nearly enough for a lynch to be a good idea. He also hadn't claimed. We had a long time before deadline. It was totally premature.

I'm not in the slightest bit upset that DLG was willing to lynch Llama at deadline (not that he was - he voted MW). That is a total misrep. I'm upset that he was willing to lynch Llama when
1. Llama wasn't his top suspect
2. Llama was actively responding to the case on him
3. We had some days until deadline.
(The point of 1. is that it makes 2. and 3. important).

@DLG: with the opinions in the game, there was zero chance of a DLG or BB lynch in the time we had. Llama was the best option who might get lynched. Denying that would have done no good.

Re: why only you and BB. Your votes were the worst. BB has the added bonus that he's the obvious reason scum would want to go after Llama (Llama was attacking him).

[DarlaBlueEyes]

I think that Llama is considerably less scummy than fish today, and I don't see any reason to rush a lynch when we have 2 weeks to scumhunt and make sure we get a good lynch and don't lose town again. We're already down a PR which really sucks for us.

I don't like how Bobs is pushing for a quick lynch already, and I still am not comfortable with him from yesterday. His play hasn't changed from when I voted him D1 and I am doubtful it's going to. I have no meta on him outside of this game, which I plan to remedy soon, but I really don't like bobs. Get major uneasy vibes from him.

I like DLG for town right now, probably my strongest town read.

I am going to go look back over the fishy case, but I don't like this rush lynch. Not at all.

[Llamarble]

I can't vote in two places at once, and the vast majority of my suspicion of Llamarble rests on my ender241 read. I think Llamarble's case on Bub Bidderskins is sincere. I think it a case of genuine scum hunting from a scum slot. That would mean a multi-faction game, and while there is a possibility of that, there is no guarantee of it.

ONE PERSON DIED LAST NIGHT. THEREFORE GENUINE SCUM HUNTING PROBABLY MEANS TOWN. BUT IN SPITE OF THINKING I'M GENUINELY HUNTING FOR SCUM AFTER A NIGHT WITH 1 KILL, YOU STILL VOTE ME???

AND WHY ARE BOBSNOX AND WEREWOLF VOTING ME?? I SEE NOTHING IN THEIR ISOS TO EXPLAIN THAT. ESPECIALLY WEREWOLF'S.

[Empking]

Fate replaces Ninkanor.

[Empking]

Vote Count 23

1. bobsnox
2. DarlaBlueEyes
3. werewolf555
4. DLG
5. Jahudo
6. Bub Bidderskins (2) - Fishythefish, llamarble
7. Fishythefish (1) - Fate
8. Brokenscraps
9. CryMeARiver
10. Fate
11. Yosarian2
13. llarmable (5) - bobsnox, Yosarian2, Bub Bidderskins, werewolf555, DLG

Not Voting: DarlaBlueEyes, Jahudo, brokenscraps, CryMeARiver

With 12 alive its 7 to lynch

Yos, Bub, Werewolf

[DarlaBlueEyes]

Oooh. Everyone talks about Fate. Now I get to meet the infamous one. Welcome to the game, sir.

[bobsnox]

I think that Llama is considerably less scummy than fish today, and I don't see any reason to rush a lynch when we have 2 weeks to scumhunt and make sure we get a good lynch and don't lose town again. We're already down a PR which really sucks for us.

I don't like how Bobs is pushing for a quick lynch already, and I still am not comfortable with him from yesterday. His play hasn't changed from when I voted him D1 and I am doubtful it's going to. I have no meta on him outside of this game, which I plan to remedy soon, but I really don't like bobs. Get major uneasy vibes from him.

I like DLG for town right now, probably my strongest town read.

I am going to go look back over the fishy case, but I don't like this rush lynch. Not at all.

Hey Darla. I'll give you the same treatment I gave FF. Lynch me.

I don't think it would take much for people to hop on another Darla wagon.

Weird how DLG and I are practically 100% in agreement on things yet he's your strongest town read and I'm your main suspect.

Why would my play change? Did it ever look like I felt any pressure from your and FF's whimpy cases on me? "oh no they're on to me! I need to change my play!" no. but someone else has definitely done just that (you). I understand outside circumstances, but when you've been here you've been pretty inconspicuous.

We stand to learn some stuff/lynch scum by lynching Llamarble. No one is pushing a speedlynch on him - I'm just shocked he's still alive and people aren't more focused on him.

Acceptable lynches:
-Llamarble
-Darla
-Fishy
-Bub Bidderskins (scummy behavior, plus we'd have a better idea about Llamarble and Fishy)

I can't vote in two places at once, and the vast majority of my suspicion of Llamarble rests on my ender241 read. I think Llamarble's case on Bub Bidderskins is sincere. I think it a case of genuine scum hunting from a scum slot. That would mean a multi-faction game, and while there is a possibility of that, there is no guarantee of it.

ONE PERSON DIED LAST NIGHT. THEREFORE GENUINE SCUM HUNTING PROBABLY MEANS TOWN. BUT IN SPITE OF THINKING I'M GENUINELY HUNTING FOR SCUM AFTER A NIGHT WITH 1 KILL, YOU STILL VOTE ME???

AND WHY ARE BOBSNOX AND WEREWOLF VOTING ME?? I SEE NOTHING IN THEIR ISOS TO EXPLAIN THAT. ESPECIALLY WEREWOLF'S.

LOUD NOISES

I'm voting you for the same reasons I was voting you yesterday, plus the fact that you have ceased doing all that wall-posting/scumhunting stuff. Your behavior is scummy and your predecessor was scumtastic.

Fate replaces Ninkanor.

oh boy...

[bobsnox]

also, Darla, scumhunting for 2 weeks does not necessarily increase our chances of hitting scum. We spent a long time going back and forth on several targets yesterday only to mislynch. Using more of our time does not necessarily increase our chances of being correct.

If we find scum (like I believe we have), we pick the best option and lynch one of them.

bandwagon derailing is what led to MW's lynch, btw. More time = more derailing. Several people are sure about Llamarble. It's time for a lynching or for someone to develop a better wagon.

[Jahudo]

@Jahudo: Who are your suspects and why? I find it hard to tell based on your ISO. Which is not a good sign. And you got on the Whisky wagon for the contradiction-logic, which looked like obvious sarcasm to me.

im joining the escaped prisoners tonight as a prisoner traitor.

This sounds like a traitor role, except traitor is a scum role. If you are not claiming scum, Whisky, how is your role different and why shouldn't we lynch you at this point?

This sounded weird to me. My reaction was "huh, obvious fakeclaim, lynchtime." Your reaction sounds vaguely like "Please claim something else so I don't have to lynch you now that I've learned you're a mafia traitor." Care to explain?

I've been rereading so far today, so the only suspicion I've given recently is CMAR.

Explain again how that looked like sarcasm? I didn't read it that way and he didn't defend it that way. Sarcasm would have been a believable excuse if Whisky had really been pushing the idea that they were scumbuddies, so he'd be sarcastic about how long it took someone else to pick up on the idea or how someone else falsely believed they were creating the idea in the first place. But Whisky only suggested the idea once, and bobsnox did not act like he was creating this idea. Also the contradiction was not the only reason I was on his wagon.

His claim was very confusing so I asked for clarification. I wanted to know what he thought the traitor role was because either he was scum trying to get modkilled or town who didn't know that traitor is a scum role. And he also claimed undercover cop so it was possible his clarification would have been more about that. Like he's a cop with some kind of prisoner flavor. It did feel fake, but I've seen VTs fakeclaim before this incident so its not a big surprise.

[Jahudo]

Darla, I think there are still a few issues with how you played the end of yesterday.

UNVOTE: Fishythefish
VOTE: Llamarble

I mistook the votes right before mine as having been subtracted from Whiskey.

Bobs switched his vote the very post before you switched. How did you miss the bolded part where he was unvoting Fishy and not Whisky? I find it hard to believe that you missed this.

I will say while his play at first was very scummy he since has seemed to be very aggressive in his scum hunting which is a lot more helpful and townish than what others are doing. (IE: Whiskey)

I wanted a lynch and both Llama and Whiskey were appealing to me and yeah. I thought the bob and fish vote changes were coming off of whiksey because I didn't actually check.

Why the sudden turn around from Llamarble was townish to both Llamarble and Whisky are appealing lynches? How is a townish person appealing to lynch?

What is your excuse for not reading that page when you voted? Deadline was still a day or two away. A no lynch was not going to happen if you wait 15 minutes to read a couple of posts.

[brokenscraps]

Why's so much space being dedicated to Llamarble having a town-read on Whisky or not at the end of day 1 as if being correct on a town reads says anything?

This town is also faction-driven right now, but what I wanna know is why Llamarble stalled and Whisky went down so smooth, was it heading this why prior to the fakeclaim? I'll check when I have time.

This sounded weird to me. My reaction was "huh, obvious fakeclaim, lynchtime." Your reaction sounds vaguely like "Please claim something else so I don't have to lynch you now that I've learned you're a mafia traitor." Care to explain?

What, pray tell, are you saying here/trying to achieve?

Waiting for fresh eyes, I'm tired and without the time to pay proper attention, more eventually.

[Yosarian2]

Why's so much space being dedicated to Llamarble having a town-read on Whisky or not at the end of day 1 as if being correct on a town reads says anything?

Being correct or not dosn't necessarily say anything, although of course how he reacted to the day 1 wagon is going to be relevent to an analysis of Llamarble.

On the other hand, if Llamarble is being disingenuous about his behavior towards Whiskey, that is a problem, and that's what it looks like to me. It looks like he wanted to get credit for defending Whiskey at a point in the game when he was actually doing the opposite, and that's scummy.

[Fate]

Afternoon town,

My name is Fate, nice to meet you.

I'll be in here with a stream of thought catch-up post that nails likely 75% of the scumteam and reasons with. As for when, I guarantee by Wednesday, but I'll get started tonight.

Thank you for your time.

[Jahudo]

Yay for stream of thought. I don't think like the Bub or llamarble wagons so hopefully you will have some new ideas.

Right now I'm looking at CMAR, Darla, werewolf and Fishy as possible scums but no one is jumping out as vote worthy. CMAR and Darla I've expressed some suspicions that I'd like to talk with them about; werewolf and his predecessors have been too null so far which is always a concern after day 1; and DLG's take on Fishy has peaked my interest so I want to re-read him again.

[Bub Bidderskins]

I'm really sorry I haven't posted much recently, but real life got in the way of my mafia.

Vote: Llamarble

Obvscum here. He was able to deflect his wagon unsuccessfully onto me, and successfully onto More Whisky.

Whisky's claim was pathetic. I can't believe he would do that.

WHAT?? SUDDENLY I'M OBVSCUM? THIS IS GARBAGE. I didn't "try to deflect my wagon onto morewhisky." I SAID I THOUGHT HE WAS TOWN. THAT IS THE OPPOSITE OF DEFLECTING MY WAGON ONTO SOMEBODY.

VOTE: BUB BIDDERSKINS
My reads are 2/2 so far. I'm starting to feel like Cassandra.

WHAT?? SUDDENLY YOU DECIDE TO ACTUALLY READ THE THREAD?

And seriously, what the hell are talking about saying you thought morewhisky was town. YOU VOTED FOR HIM!!! So you are essentially saying that you voted for somebody you thought was town.

I'm not in the slightest bit upset that DLG was willing to lynch Llama at deadline (not that he was - he voted MW). That is a total misrep. I'm upset that he was willing to lynch Llama when
1. Llama wasn't his top suspect
2. Llama was actively responding to the case on him
3. We had some days until deadline.

You are upset about how DLG voted for some who wasn't his top suspect, but what do you think of Llamarble voting for someone he had a "town read" on?

[Llamarble]

YES. I VOTED FOR SOMEONE I THOUGHT WAS TOWN BECAUSE AT THAT POINT IT WAS ME, WHO I KNOW IS TOWN, OR HIM.

Gah I hate this situation. Either me or a claimed PR I have a townread on is getting lynched today...
Why couldn't we just have lynched Bidderskins obvscum??

Scum almost always claim PRs D1 because it sometimes stops them from getting lynched when they would otherwise.
This makes a claimed PR a lot more likely to be scum.
Also FF softclaimed, meaning the odds of randomly hitting a town PR are reduced further.
I may not have access enough to vote in time tomorrow and lynching 40%scum60%PR (normally it'd be more like 60%scum but I dropped the percentage due to my read) is better than lynching 100% VT.
VOTE: MoreWhisky


By the way I reread Jahudo and don't have a strong townread on him anymore.
Too much clarificationy posting. The main scumhunting he does is finding Ender scummy for the FF unvote, which is easily explained by Ender just not thinking to put his vote back on, and the Whisky contradiction, which was pretty obviously sarcasm.

P. Edit: Mod fixed that votecount, which is why the last couple posts look weird.

AGFUDTNKIBGDTKKTT
The reason we are talking about whether I had a townread on Whisky or not is because Bub claimed I "Tried to push my wagon onto Morewhisky."

Whiskey is town, I think.
His ISO makes sense. I looked at his meta and his play as townie in a newbie game isn't dissimilar from his play here.
I think he believes what he's saying and his logic looks like town logic even if I don't agree with him in places.
Why are we lynching him again?
I looked through everyone's cases, and it's basically because of this post:

sorry guys on phone here, gonna try to get to what I can see

@DLG - My stance on ender is simply Meta. The other game we participated in he acted exactly the same, blatant scum moves, and ended up we killed our doc due to other factors which I don't want to elaborate on due to the game being on going. If you want to see it yourself it's Newbie #1045. I am not disregarding his actions but I know this is how he plays as town, and granted I haven't seen him as scum either, I honestly just see him as a n00b and do not like his wagon. My guess is that we have at least one if not two scum on that wagon because he's made himself the perfect target for a scum push. As for Fires I don't know, I just get a noob vibes off him. Between he and ender I'd be more inclined to do an ender lynch, but again, I would need something more blatant from him to make me think he wasn't actually town given the meta I have.

Whiskey - thank you for elaborating and to everyone jumping on me for using a vote to get that answer out of him, pardon me if I felt that something needed to be done to get his attention since he ignored me twice

unvote

I am still not sure what Whiskey sees as so scummy about Yos, and not Bob / Jahudo who're also on the ender wagon, but it's worthy of a look back at Yos' posts for me. Maybe he's seeing something I'm not, (although it'd be helpful if he articulated it more clearly if he is town.)

Right now I'd like to see more from Albie. So far his posts have been primarily fluff, o/t or one or two lines.

more coming when i am not on my phone. and apologies if autocorrect did anything wonky in this post, no time to check it.

I really dont like this post you seem to be all over that place finding someone to pin the scum tag on. I also dont like how u ask someone a question about there actions on other players, normally this is sort of ok but here im sure this is another tactic to deflect the chat from you.

And whats all this phone business? we all have stuff to do. have some more time on the phone

vote Darla

I agree that this case is weak. I also think he believes it. "Pinning the scumtag" means the same thing as "fake scumhunting." So he thinks she is fake scumhunting. I disagree, but I don't find it difficult to believe TownWhisky believes a pattern of moving votes around indicates scumminess. The phone stuff is null. He thinks she's making excuses, it gets explained, and he later apologizes.

The contradiction business is explained completely by realizing he's sarcastic there.
I'd let him defend himself but there isn't really time.

HOW THE ^#@$)! IS THIS "TRYING TO SHIFT MY WAGON ONTO MOREWHISKY???"

[Llamarble]

This sounded weird to me. My reaction was "huh, obvious fakeclaim, lynchtime." Your reaction sounds vaguely like "Please claim something else so I don't have to lynch you now that I've learned you're a mafia traitor." Care to explain?

What, pray tell, are you saying here/trying to achieve?

Jahudo said something weird and seemed hesitant to lynch a potential claimed mafia traitor. I requested clarification of this statement along with actual stances / analysis from him. I am trying to achieve finding the scum.

I'm voting you for the same reasons I was voting you yesterday, plus the fact that you have ceased doing all that wall-posting/scumhunting stuff. Your behavior is scummy and your predecessor was scumtastic.

This response is totally inadequate. My point was that you didn't give any even vaguely decent reasons yesterday.
All I saw was Ender's votes on FF. Which while wrong apparently were due to FF playing the newbcard and softclaiming.
And my "lack of scumhunting" (and now suddenly he accuses me of having "stopped scumhunting" so clearly he thought I was before).

[werewolf555]

FoS everyone not on the Llamarble bandwagon lol

seriously though. why is llamarble still alive?

I completely agree
Just look at his attempts at "scum hunting" and his death becomes clear

[DLG]

WHAT. YOU ARE ACCUSING ME OF NOT HAVING A TOWNREAD ON WHISKEY BECAUSE I SAID I WOULD RATHER LYNCH HIM THAN MYSELF?? THAT IS RIDICULOUS. I specifically stated in the sentence you quoted that I had a town read on him which was weakened by his PRclaim, which turned out to be fake anyway.

No. I never said anything about you would rather lynch MoreWhisky than yourself. My point was that you came out describing yourself as an oracle, when the FinalFires read was one everyone seemed to share and your more MoreWhisky read was not as strong as you implied in that post. I particularly note how you tried to use this flim-flam to support your Bub Bidderskins case.

ONE PERSON DIED LAST NIGHT. THEREFORE GENUINE SCUM HUNTING PROBABLY MEANS TOWN. BUT IN SPITE OF THINKING I'M GENUINELY HUNTING FOR SCUM AFTER A NIGHT WITH 1 KILL, YOU STILL VOTE ME???

Let's be clear, although I know you want things blurry. I didn't think you were genuinely scum hunting after a night with 1 kill. I thought that before the night phase. How about the rest of that post that you truncated?

I can't vote in two places at once, and the vast majority of my suspicion of Llamarble rests on my ender241 read. I think Llamarble's case on Bub Bidderskins is sincere. I think it a case of genuine scum hunting from a scum slot. That would mean a multi-faction game, and while there is a possibility of that, there is no guarantee of it.

So there is no misunderstanding, I will have no hesitation hammering Llamarble if his wagon goes back to L-1. But, of the two, I think there is less reason to doubt that MoreWhisky is scum.

So, at the point where multi-factions seemed a reasonable possibility, I was willing to acknowledge that you seemed to be genuinely going after Bub Bidderskins as a scum suspect. Given the events of the night, a single faction seems more likely. In that light, I must have been mistaken about your sincerity.

The reason we are talking about whether I had a townread on Whisky or not is because Bub claimed I "Tried to push my wagon onto Morewhisky."

And because I called BS on your brag post. Convenient for you to try to shift the focus onto the easier to defend accusation.

These attempts to deflect the real points by misrepresentation are strongly indicative of scum desperation.

[bobsnox]

I'm voting you for the same reasons I was voting you yesterday, plus the fact that you have ceased doing all that wall-posting/scumhunting stuff. Your behavior is scummy and your predecessor was scumtastic.

This response is totally inadequate. My point was that you didn't give any even vaguely decent reasons yesterday.
All I saw was Ender's votes on FF. Which while wrong apparently were due to FF playing the newbcard and softclaiming.
And my "lack of scumhunting" (and now suddenly he accuses me of having "stopped scumhunting" so clearly he thought I was before).

I should have been more clear: "so-called scum-hunting" is what I meant. You stopped your seeming scumhunting.

I'm liking what I see from DLG, Jahudo, and Yos.

I'll be interested to see what Fate comes up with. I'm sure it will involve a multitude of capital letters, which is always entertaining.

Jahudo - I'm all for a Darla wagon if no one is going to finish Llamarble off.

[DLG]

@DLG: with the opinions in the game, there was zero chance of a DLG or BB lynch in the time we had. Llama was the best option who might get lynched. Denying that would have done no good.

Re: why only you and BB. Your votes were the worst. BB has the added bonus that he's the obvious reason scum would want to go after Llama (Llama was attacking him).

My point had nothing to do with you accepting reality. My point was that for the champion of "quicklynch is scummy" (you) to settle in on the player you had given so much effort to defending with 2 days left until deadline is contradictory. I could easily accept that you would vote Llamarble to prevent no-lynch at deadline. But, that was not the case when you voted him.

I reiterate that I absolutely disagree that being willing to hammer a scum read is bad. I voted him back to L-1 after you had unvoted. I did it to try to get a lynch accomplished on a slot that the bulk of the town had expressed suspicion towards.

From a theory standpoint, I firmly believe that scum will have a much more difficult time avoiding being lynched when towns show themselves willing to use their lynches aggressively instead of being afraid of being wrong. On Day 1, I was gratified to be playing in a town that had such a general consensus on one slot. If that lynch had occured, and turned out to be a mislynch, then analyzing how each player attached to the wagon would be an important avenue of investigation.

Instead, we ended up in a position where it is remarkably easy to defend votes by saying, "We needed a lynch, and choice A was better than choice B". In other words, we can't investigate the wagon as well.

Just to be clear, if I have said someone is in my top 2 or 3 suspects, and they get to L-1 without my vote, I

will

be willing to hammer them.