A Storm of Swords - Lay your swords down!

[Shadow1psc]

ITT: Chess still doesn't acknowledge he's part of the problem n.n

It's gonna be a great game<3

[chesskid3]

to clarify, at lylo shadow will ignore any townreads he has acquired throughout the game and follow any claimed investigative result. You disagree with that, Shadow?
Jesus I saved your ass from being mislynched. You reward me by going full retard at lylo.

So I don't actually need him to be scum to want him gone.

[Shadow1psc]

You were never a town read *shrug*

Anyway, different game. As long as you don't kick your caps lock up to 11, we'll have a dandy time.

[chesskid3]

pity you won't be around to enjoy it

[Shadow1psc]

Anyway, I'm going to ignore chesskid and the irony he brings to the table for now.

[Eddard Stark]

Vote count 1.1

Twilight Sparkle (1) Zdenek
Percy (2) LynchMePls, Magua
Zdenek (1) MagnaofIllusion

Shadow1psc (5) Hasdgfas, zoraster, Twilight Sparkle, Mikujin, chesskid3

DrippingGoofball (3) GreyICE, Bunnylover, Locke Lamora
chesskid3 (1) Benmage
xvart (1) Song of Ice and Fire
Mikujin (1) Danakillsu
LynchMePls (1) (DrippingGoofball)

Not voting (9) diddin, Nexus, Percy, xvart, Xtoxm, Raivann, Shadow1psc, Feysal, Kast

With 25 alive it takes 13 to lynch.

Raise Count 1.1

Locke Lamora (1) Locke Lamora
LynchMePls (1) LynchMePls
MagnaOfIllusion (1) MagnaofIllusion
Hasdgfas (1) Hasdgfas
GreyICE (1) - GreyICE
Twilight Sparkle (1) Magua
Mikujin (1) Mikujin
DrippingGoofball (1) Danakillsu
Bunnylover (1) Bunnylover
Danakillsu (1) chesskid3

Not raising (15)diddin, Nexus , Benmage, Percy, xvart, Xtoxm, Raivann, Zdenek, Zoraster, Twilight Sparkle, Song of ice and fire, DrippingGoofball, Feysal, Kast, Shadow1psc

With 25 alive it takes 13 to raise someone

Any mistakes in the votecount PLEASE point them out. God knows it'd not be the first time I made a mistake.

[chesskid3]

Oh I would also like to take this opportunity to mention that my character was once the hand of the king
so
I deserve it

[Twilight Sparkle]

If I supported a Day 1 policy lynch on Chess I’d be voting for him.

Why don't you support a Day 1 policy lynch on Chess?

[Mikujin]

to clarify, at lylo shadow will ignore any townreads he has acquired throughout the game and follow any claimed investigative result. You disagree with that, Shadow?
Jesus I saved your ass from being mislynched. You reward me by going full retard at lylo.

So I don't actually need him to be scum to want him gone.

Anyway, I'm going to ignore chesskid and the irony he brings to the table for now.

Girls, girls, you're

both

very pretty.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If I supported a Day 1 policy lynch on Chess I’d be voting for him.

Why don't you support a Day 1 policy lynch on Chess?

Because policy lynching doesn't work. I used to support them (which carried over from the old site I used to play at) but in my year here I've come to the conclusion they don't work. Furculow in [REDACTED] was the last straw for me. I support hanging VIs when they play scummy, not simply because they are historic VIs.

Do you support a Day 1 policy lynch of Chesskid?

And which of the three heads are you anyway?

[Bunnylover]

I know MoI, I was just joking. I would actually kill myself if for some reason people actually gave me that thing <_<.

[Twilight Sparkle]

If I supported a Day 1 policy lynch on Chess I’d be voting for him.

Why don't you support a Day 1 policy lynch on Chess?

Because policy lynching doesn't work. I used to support them (which carried over from the old site I used to play at) but in my year here I've come to the conclusion they don't work. Furculow in [REDACTED] was the last straw for me. I support hanging VIs when they play scummy, not simply because they are historic VIs.

It depends what you mean by "dosen't work." Your ISO 1 suggests that you understand the value of town composition. I'm certainly not saying we should be policy lynching this instant; but blanket opposition to a Day 1 policy lynch seems a little heavy-handed. If there are no extremely convincing scum cases, a good policy lynch is a helluva silver medal.

Do you support a Day 1 policy lynch of Chesskid?

It'd be a good lynch. Not as good as a lynch on a likely scum, but a good lynch.

And which of the three heads are you anyway?

Every post so far has been hito. We do intend to sign all of our major posts; I haven't felt the need to sign one-liners.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Second head of the sparkly unicorn alliance checking in!

Poor Percy is screwed because of his performance last game. No one wants to raise him now.

I'm going to ask something a bit strange. Do people think that a one-shot governor would be useful for town? Say, on a town read in LYLO who looks lynchable but whom you're sooooo sure was town (which is a double-edged sword, if you're wrong or it )?

Right now, I think the role would mainly have a scum benefit, and even then, only when played at the right time. I'm asking because we're discussing the best use of the role in the Hydra QT. We'll explain more, later.

Longwinded statistics talk

Leaving aside that I agree with GreyICE/DGB that the difference between town and scum self-raising is negligible, in ACOK, people went meta on self-raising vs. raising someone else

on page one

(when scum!MacavityLock was the first to say not self-raising was a scumtell). How is the discussion here any worse? Instead of biding your time, you came out on

page three

to discuss what trends you hypothetically might have noticed, that hypothetically might have helped you catch scum in an alternate universe, had we all not been idiots who weren't psychic enough not to destroy your pristine experiment.

This feels like an excuse to post intimidating statistics and analysis to show everyone what a helpful protown townie you are. The real protown move would have been to keep your mouth shut for a few pages, even if the data had been somewhat compromised. Eh. I like a few of the questions you've been asking, but overall, your posts feel padded with theory talk and IIoA.

Then really it isn’t a few unless you have voices in your head you are counting we don’t know about. For that reason I don’t buy your hedging here. If you only trusted yourself you would have said “I’m the only player I trust”. For someone who prides themselves on strong oratory skills I’m not sure I buy your explanation.

And the scum motivation for backtracking on this would be _________?

And yet the very fact that you know this statistic tells us that scum could easily have seen this and decided to self-raise because "that's what town does".

Yes, I did know this general trend, though I didn't know the actual statistic. I was maf in the first one and didn't self-raise, because I genuinely thought it was stupid.

Okay, I played in the last one, and I'm calling you on this. Are you honestly saying that any point during or after the game, you'd thought, "Gee, it's funny that a disproportionate number of scum are raising people others than themselves"? Even though MacavityLock and xvart, two of your three scumbuddies, both self-raised at first?

I like GreyICE's argument that the statistical difference is negligible, but not yours that scum would be aware of the trend. Since the "trend" is only noticeable if you mathematically calculate the percentages, I really don't like you saying, "Oh, sure. Yeah. I totally noticed it was a trend all along."

In other news, I agree with Locke that DGB has been a bit off so far. Maybe it's that she's aggressively defending more than attacking so far. I also get the impression that she's trying too hard to seem careless. Also echoing Magna's question: why didn't you share your negative opinion of self-raising in

ACoK

?

Were I alone, I'd move my vote, but as I'm only one third of a pony, I'll let my partners

neigh

weigh in first.

~Mina

fixed ~ mod

[GreyICE]

As for your datamining, it's obviously worthless. One player voted themselves instead of another, and it would be 40% scum voted self, 33% voted town. A swing of one person would reverse your so-called results. That's below the noise level, and no useful data can be gleaned except that scum are reasonably good at blending in with town - when there's no useful ability to be gleaned. That was true in CoK. Do I trust it's true here and now? No.

Dismissing that any possible information can be gleaned from information in a similar past game is short-sighted.

Honestly, I really want to kick you. A 25 person sample is nowhere near enough to get below noise on anything less than a 30-40% difference. I'm glad you brought it up now, because there's a chance you could derail a scum wagon with an argument that fucking poor. If you have any more terrible statistics that are below noise level, please don't share them with us.

Did you miss the part where I said the real important data would be mined at a deeper level? Ok thanks. And the little strawman you throw out here about ‘derailing a scum wagon’ is noted. You are pre-supposing how the information would be used when there is no evidence that it would be used in that manner. Especially since, as I said in that post, the likely relevant trends from Clash have been rendered useless the discussion already.

I notice you didn't address my response to your statement that your all-caps statement about scum seeking to raise Partners. Do you really think they would go out of the way to immedaitely draw links to each other?

Oh shut up with the self-justifications, MoI. That garbage data was mislynch fodder waiting to happen. I have no problem learning things from past games, I have problems learning

things that are wrong.

You drew a conclusion that was not justified by the data. That's wrong. I'm not insisting on three sigma, but I'd like at least

ONE SIGMA

.

This is fucking classic IIoA. Mislynch after mislynch out of your garbage data? No. If it's not significant, keep it out of the thread. If it becomes significant, bring it up. Don't fucking give me shit statistics and expect me to smile and eat them as if you're adding something.

So far you've added nothing but wall post after wall post, IIoA, and no fucking analysis whatsoever. I am telling you the truth, I am town, you are not helping the town. As for scum establishing links between themselves, yes, sure. Look at the thread - most people are recommending that we don't select for a week. Lots of time to establish your town cred, throw your town cred behind other scum's town cred, start a wagon, whatever.

It's simple, make me Hand.

Who wants their majority lynch aborted for terrible reasons? Who thinks that we're going to learn more about who is town and who is scum in a week? Or are we more likely for the scum to find a way to get a "townie enough" scum in place?

Want me to put the arguments in your terms, MoI?

Clash of Kings - they voted scum into the doublevoter, didn't they? How long did they take to decide that? Did they come to some compromise candidate everyone liked? What are the odds that that selection was scum influenced? It didn't hurt the town... once. Will it hurt the town this time? I don't like arguing from a sample size of one. What's the odds scum will end up with the power? What are the odds scum can push the governor power onto someone they think might misuse it?

I'm in the spotlight. You think this is a scum gambit? It's not. I'm running this out there. I'll take the governor power, not use it because "I like somebody" or "Goddamn it, I'm smarter than the town and I know who scum is" or "for t3h lulz." You want to lynch me, you think you have good reasons? Lynch me. Appointing me to this doesn't confirm me town, and I'm not arrogant enough to say it does. What I won't do to you? I'm not governing someone who is not confirmable/confirmed town,

period.

I'll make my arguments in the forum, in the thread, like everyone else, and if you disagree with me, I'll accept it.

P.S. My vote is still on DGB.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Goddamn it.

Eddard Stark: could you fix my quote tags, please?

to clarify, at lylo shadow will ignore any townreads he has acquired throughout the game and follow any claimed investigative result. You disagree with that, Shadow?
Jesus I saved your ass from being mislynched. You reward me by going full retard at lylo.

So I don't actually need him to be scum to want him gone.

Anyway, I'm going to ignore chesskid and the irony he brings to the table for now.

Girls, girls, you're

both

very pretty.

So, um, do you have opinions on anything that's happened so far? Or are you going to play the same total flippancy card you did last game as scum until you got wagoned for it and miraculously raised your game?

~Mina

[GreyICE]

Oh and Sparkle (gah, I want to call you Mina, you so read Mina right now) - in case it's not clear. I believe the 1-shot governor is more beneficial for the scum if you compare 1-shot Governor Vanilla Townie versus 1-shot Governor Mafia Goon. I can find plenty of ways of using it that are terribly non-beneficial to the town - bolster a fake cop claim, earn townie points for pardoning a mislynch, screw with our heads in LyLo, hell... LyLo. If the governor is on the scum in 3 man LyLo

the town loses

. Automatically.

It has to go on town who will not abuse it or misuse it, because the ideal use, in all likelihood, is to

never use it.

P.S. Seriously, what do you want me to call you?

[hasdgfas]

It's simple, make me Hand.

.

*shakes head*

Oh I would also like to take this opportunity to mention that my character was once the hand of the king
so
I deserve it

[Twilight Sparkle]

*total useless fluff post before I hurry to get ready for work*

You can call me Mina if you're referring explicitly to a post I made, or Twilight/Twilight Sparkle/Sparkle/whatever. It really doesn't matter.

I normally play all-alted games (ironically, on a fansite for

A Song of Ice and Fire

), and everyone spots me within my first three posts.

I think you're being a bit paranoid about just how dangerous the governor role is, but I will deliberately withhold most of my thoughts on the Hand/governor role for a while. (I keep writing sentences and then deleting them.)

Preview-edit: Cow, whether or not you find GreyICE's and chess's behaviour eyeroll-worthy, do you find it scummy?

[hasdgfas]

Preview-edit: Cow, whether or not you find GreyICE's and chess's behaviour eyeroll-worthy, do you find it scummy?

GreyICE

chess

*shakes head*

[Twilight Sparkle]

Cow, do you have some kind of posting restriction this game that limits you to smileys/actions?

[Shadow1psc]

Bran, tree stump, GO!

[Kast]

GreyIce is overreacting a lot.

I was gonna disagree with MoI about VIs, then I read #84 & it's exactly what I was gonna say. Let's lynch scummy (regardless of VI status). However, deviation from expected behavior will likely influence whether something done by a specific player is actually scummy or not.

I don't see what the big deal about D1 governor. If the governor screws with the town preferred lynch, we get info & he has to justify himself. But that's prolly not going to happen.

[hasdgfas]

Cow, do you have some kind of posting restriction this game that limits you to smileys/actions?

*puts hands forward, palms up*
*raises left, lowers right*
*raises right, lowers left*

[Shadow1psc]

What's that? Rickon fell down the well?! xD

[Shadow1psc]

While its slow, I guess I'll take a moment to mention that I am most active when I work, which is a normal 8-4 weekday kinda deal. I tend to try and read along through the weekends from iPhone/iPad, but I don't post much on Friday-Sunday.