Mafia 124 - Dilemma Mafia (Day 6)

[Yosarian2]

This "he claimed VT at that point because if he had claimed PR it would've been countered" shit is just that.
1. A VT claim USUALLY results in a lynch, the fact that it didn't was a miracle of towniness from several people. THUS scum claim PR to either
-Live as a PR fakeclaim for ahwile
-Out a PR.

(shrug) In my experence, scum claim VT fairly often, probably more often then they should.

Also, I never have and never will consider a VT claim to be a town tell. No VT should ever claim in any case, and there's no way in hell I'm going to encourage that garbage. Pretty much any situation where town bandwagons someone to a claim, if they claim VT, you should lynch them; bandwagoning people to a claim and then unvoting anyone who claims VT is horrible town play, it just outs all the power roles without giving the town any information.

My best bet, based on the timing of his claim, is that he just couldn't come up with a good fake claim that'd be believed and wouldn't be counterclaimed. Considering the fairly narrow range of roles allowed in normal games these days, that's not really surprising.

[Fate]

I made a post directrly countering one of your quotes, and you ignored it.

Yosyosyos.

Using things like site meta "scum claim VT a lot" and vague "the timing of his claim means he couldn't come up with something" instead of the much more plausible "he was town that wanted discussion."

Lamee

scummmmmmmmmm

[Yosarian2]

I think you've been much more worried about self-preservation then about anything else.

I don't think Whiskey is scum either, though I'm in the middle of a post on that.
Let's lynch BB.

I try hard not to get lynched as all roles and all alignments.
Not getting lynched is playing toward your wincon unless you're a jester.
Also VT happens to be my favorite normal role.

^This is not scum worried abotu self-preservation. He calls the counter wagon, that

we know was on town

, "not a good choice" and call Whisky TOWN, when he could've easily had a "scum" read on him to justify Whisky's wagon.

NEXT.

Ok, that's a reasonable point. Thank you for actually starting to play mafia, instead of just making random declearations and assuming everyone would just do whatever you say.

Anyway, I'd feel better about it if it wasn't for the fact that it seemed like he was willing to defend Whiskey (and keep Whiskey on his side) until the point when Whiskey claimed power claim; I think Llamascum was willing to let a VT Whiskey live, but wanted a power role Whiskey to die.

[Yosarian2]

I made a post directrly countering one of your quotes, and you ignored it.

Um, or you could wait until I finish typing before you attack me for "ignoring your post", lol.

[Fate]

UH OH YOSARIAN CANT TWIST FATES POINTS BECAUSE FATE ACTUALLY KNOWS HOW TO PLAY MAFIA?

UH OH WHATS YOSSCUM GONNA DO NOW???

BUS DARLA?

STALL AND LURK?


*POPCORN*

[Fate]

Anyway, I'd feel better about it if it wasn't for the fact that it seemed like he was willing to defend Whiskey (and keep Whiskey on his side) until the point when Whiskey claimed power claim; I think Llamascum was willing to let a VT Whiskey live, but wanted a power role Whiskey to die.

This is hilariously bad.

There's no way you're town tunneled this deep.

You want to keep up the heat so that when you NK me tonight you can say "OK NOW WE MISLYNCH MARBLE! LETS GO GUYS BACK ON TRACK"

Cept you won't be abel to say that because I'll have taken you down with me.

Your budding anger that I'm throwing "random" accusations (that you know are accurate) and people are listening to me is noted.

NOTED IN THE NOTEBOOK OF NOTES.

[Yosarian2]

UH OH YOSARIAN CANT TWIST FATES POINTS BECAUSE FATE ACTUALLY KNOWS HOW TO PLAY MAFIA?

UH OH WHATS YOSSCUM GONNA DO NOW???

BUS DARLA?

STALL AND LURK?


*POPCORN*

Hah. You're actually town, aren't you? I was wondering for a while there, but I don't think you could fake this as scum, and I really don't think you'd be crazy enough to try to pull this off as a partner of Llama.

You're going to feel pretty dumb when you find out you were defending scum all day, though.

[Fate]

Oh ok, "I dont haz a read on fate"

You had NO READ on me after my giant mass of a stream of thought catchup post?

GUESS YOU CANT TIE ME TO ME MARBLE ANYMORE CAN YA?

BTW I COULD TOTALLY FAKE THAT AS SCUM.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, I'd feel better about it if it wasn't for the fact that it seemed like he was willing to defend Whiskey (and keep Whiskey on his side) until the point when Whiskey claimed power claim; I think Llamascum was willing to let a VT Whiskey live, but wanted a power role Whiskey to die.

This is hilariously bad.

There's no way you're town tunneled this deep.

I don't believe that any pro-town person would actually think "Huh, the guy I've been defending all day claimed power role? Ok, now I want to lynch him." That is so completely counter-intuitive to how pro-town people actually think.

I mean, after Whiskey did his hilariously bad fake-claim, sure. But before that, when he just claimed generic town power? I have trouble believing it.

[Fate]

I don't believe that any town person would still be voting Marble right now.

Move your vote asap if you want me off your ass.

[Yosarian2]

Oh ok, "I dont haz a read on fate"

You had NO READ on me after my giant mass of a stream of thought catchup post?

At first, i thought you looked town-ish. Then you suddenly started defending an obvscum for no good reason, in a way that was disturbingly reminiscent of how Fishy derailed the wagon earlier, and I was starting to wonder if you were on the Llama-Fishy team.

BTW I COULD TOTALLY FAKE THAT AS SCUM.

Neah. You wouldn't commit yourself this deeply to a defense if you were Llama's scum buddy. If you had just kept being vague and spouting meaningless platitudes, though, you'd move up my suspect list pretty fast, especally if both LLama and Fishy flip scum.

[Yosarian2]

I don't believe that any town person would still be voting Marble right now.

(shrug) Well, you're obviously wrong.

Move your vote asap if you want me off your ass.

Screw that. He is going to die, and he is going to die today. If he flips town, you can bloody well try to lynch me tomorrow about it. But I really don't think he's going to flip town.

[Fate]

Llama-Fishy-Fate team huh?

I mean, I see what you're doing. "IM SO CERTAIN THAT MARBLE IS TOWN THERES NO WAY I WOULD PUSH A MISLYNCH THIS HARD AS SCUM"

but its not going to work.

Especially with such lame connections as "Marble+Fishy+You all defending eachotehr teehheehehe"

Especially considering EVERYONE ELSES play in this game, if you were town you wouldnt be nearly as paranoid about me and Fishy, given the list of shit players with shit play in this game.

The REALITY is that MOST of those players are town that you can get mislynched at anytime, so you feel no need to focus on them. Because you are SCUM

[Fate]

I don't believe that any town person would still be voting Marble right now.

(shrug) Well, you're obviously wrong.

Move your vote asap if you want me off your ass.

Screw that. He is going to die, and he is going to die today. If he flips town, you can bloody well try to lynch me tomorrow about it. But I really don't think he's going to flip town.

I'm not sure what part of "Marble won't die as long as I'm alive" you don't understand, but you're gonna want to get that through your head quick scum.

[Fishythefish]

I'm feeling more optimistic about this game than I have in a long while.

@Fate: most of your case on Yos is that his reads on Llama and myself are not up to scratch, and with Yos's weighty burden of proficiency that doesn't ring true. I totally agree with you, but since his thoughts have been shared by the vast majority of the players I haven't been thinking of that as a scumtell. Having an outside perspective that actually agrees with me changes that somewhat.

I find it unconvincing that Yos simply labels all who argue with his view on Llama as scum. That seems far too simplistic - it's just totally unrealistic that there is a Llama/Fishy/Fate scumteam whose strategy is to spout bullshit whenever Llama gets close to a lynch, and I struggle to believe Yos thought there was.

UNVOTE: VOTE: Yos

@mod: I'm V/LA from tomorrow until Monday

(I forgot to bold that before).

[Yosarian2]

I find it unconvincing that Yos simply labels all who argue with his view on Llama as scum. That seems far too simplistic - it's just totally unrealistic that there is a Llama/Fishy/Fate scumteam whose strategy is to spout bullshit whenever Llama gets close to a lynch, and I struggle to believe Yos thought there was.

...um, did you miss the part where I decided that Fate is probably town? I never actually argued that there was a "Llama/Fishy/Fate scumteam" at all. What I have been trying to do is to figure out who likely has a connection to the scum that I believe I've caught, which is of course what any pro-town person should be doing here.

And it looks like I have. Fate looks like he's probably misguided town, but you look like scum.

[Fishythefish]

Oh ok, "I dont haz a read on fate"

You had NO READ on me after my giant mass of a stream of thought catchup post?

At first, i thought you looked town-ish. Then you suddenly started defending an obvscum for no good reason, in a way that was disturbingly reminiscent of how Fishy derailed the wagon earlier, and I was starting to wonder if you were on the Llama-Fishy team.

BTW I COULD TOTALLY FAKE THAT AS SCUM.

Neah. You wouldn't commit yourself this deeply to a defense if you were Llama's scum buddy. If you had just kept being vague and spouting meaningless platitudes, though, you'd move up my suspect list pretty fast, especally if both LLama and Fishy flip scum.

Yeah, so I wasn't reading hard enough here, and missed the fact that this was hypothetical. Still, this says that at some stage you found Llama/Fishy/Fate likely - which I really doubt.

Looking for connections to the scum you think you've caught is ok - although there's no real reason to do it today. But I think the connections you were drawing here are odd ones - I can't see you actually thinking "if Llama and Fishy flip scum, Fate is a likely buddy". Aside from the fact that it's looking ludicrously far into the future, it's just not a likely conclusion from this situation.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, so I wasn't reading hard enough here, and missed the fact that this was hypothetical. Still, this says that at some stage you found Llama/Fishy/Fate likely - which I really doubt.

Eh. Anyone who defends scum is an automatic suspect; defending scum is pretty much the best scumtell there is, period. Also, it does seem clear here based on voting patterns and the way that wagons against him keep being deflected that if Llama is scum, which seems the most likely scenerio here, that his buddies are trying damn hard to keep him alive.

Looking for connections to the scum you think you've caught is ok - although there's no real reason to do it today.

Just the opposite. The best time to put you on the spot about your defense of Llama is now, while Llama is still alive, and while if you were his scumbuddy, you wouldn't be able to retreat or go back on yourself without abandoning your buddy.

It wouldn't make any sense to

lynch

person A as a possible buddy of person B without finding out B's alignment first, of course. But you should start probing for person A's buddies while person A is still alive; it puts the buddies in a much more difficult position.

But I think the connections you were drawing here are odd ones - I can't see you actually thinking "if Llama and Fishy flip scum, Fate is a likely buddy".

Again, I never actually made that accusation at all. I did think it was worth the effort to put some time into questioning Fate to try to get a read on him and see if he'd be a plausible buddy of Llama and/or you, and I'm glad that I did, I think I got a lot of information out of that.

But let's talk about you for a minute. Literally all you have done today is basically run a series of chainsaw defenses for Llama. First you attack DLG because you don't like his Llama vote yesterday. Then you go over to voting for Bub because you don't like hs Llama vote. And now that I've been taking the lead on the Llama wagon today, you are voting me. I already explained why I think your DLG attack is absurd, and probably scummy; nothing you've done since then looks any better.

Frankly, it's not just a matter of your links with Llama anymore; your contradicitions and your odd priorities are making me think that you're suspicious here independently.

[bobsnox]

I don't believe that any town person would still be voting Marble right now.

Move your vote asap if you want me off your ass.

You would stop thinking Yos is scum if he unvotes Llamarble?...

[Empking]

Vote Count 27

1. bobsnox
2. DarlaBlueEyes (1) - Jahudo
3. werewolf555
4. DLG
5. Jahudo
6. Bub Bidderskins
7. Fishythefish
8. Brokenscraps
9. DavidParker
10. Fate
11. Yosarian2 (4) - Fate, llamarble, bobsnox, Fishythefish
13. llarmable (4) - Yosarian2, Bub Bidderskins, werewolf555, DLG

Not Voting: DarlaBlueEyes, brokenscraps, DavidParker

With 12 alive its 7 to lynch

Darla has been prodded

[DLG]

Fate looks town because the theory he's selling makes sense and is supported by game events. That doesn't make it correct, just a solid theory that's being presented in a cogent way. But, that's not the whole reason Fate's town.

The second part is that of the three top suspects in Fate's theory - DarlaBlueEyes, Yosarian2, Jahudo - choosing to target Yosarian2 has now given rise to two diametrically opposed competing wagons. And either lynch and flip will serve town remarkably well. This will also force the most reluctant players to actually take a stand.

The town is in better shape now than before Fate replaced in and that makes him town.

Here's my stance if it needed to be clarified for anyone. Llamarble is scum, not Yosarian2. Yeah, I recognize Fate is the one with the great reputation or track record or whatever, but I'm not swayed.

Lynching Llamarble would also clear up the mental block I can't overcome when I try to get a better read on Fishythefish.

Another thing: Vote Yosarian, not Llmarble. Llmarble doesn't die as long as I am alive. Is that clear?

You're not going to sell me on this. I won't vote Yosarian2 today unless it's a last resort. The information gain is equal, but my read is opposite yours.

This "he claimed VT at that point because if he had claimed PR it would've been countered" shit is just that.
1. A VT claim USUALLY results in a lynch, the fact that it didn't was a miracle of towniness from several people. THUS scum claim PR to either
-Live as a PR fakeclaim for ahwile
-Out a PR.
Also your excuse that "FF softclaimed, so marble didnt want to claim PR" is BS because WHETHER FF SOFTCLAIMED OR NOT, scum knows there are POWERROLES out ther ein this setup.

It should've resulted in a lynch. Of course, with Fishythefish fearmongering everyone about the possibility of mislynching, his VT claim was just about as good as a PR claim for the purposes of staying alive. In fact, a PR claim at that point would have reduced his chances of living because it would have been a coin toss to see if he missed Final Fires role. And, the scum didn't need to out a PR at that point because they already had one. Llamarble was focused on survival.

All in all, if Llamarble is scum, he's got to be powered up in some way. There's way too much resistance and scrambling over him getting lynched to explain it otherwise.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Fate, stop being an asshole. If you can't provide a good reason for your arguments in your own posts, then you don't have a good reason. Plain and simple. You have no real original reasons for why you think llamarble is town, and the non-original ones you have your not willing to show us.

Llamarble should be dead by now. He should have died day one, but the stupid townies on his wagon chickened out. Fate, I will only give credit to your "case" on Yos when you produce one.

Fishy was the main reason why the Llamarble wagon de-railed. When it was just him, he looked like flailing scum, but when his buddy came along, it gave the impression that there was more doubt about his alignment than there actually was. However you look at it, if Llamarble is scum, then Fishy is the natural choice for scum bud.

[DarlaBlueEyes]

arg sorry guys, been really busy this week. I'll have a post up by this evening.

[Llamarble]

As Fate already explained, the fact that FF softclaimed a nonspecific PR doesn't matter. Scum already know there are going to be PRs. And saying (as Yos did) that I didn't have time to make up a fakeclaim is absurd. All that requires is picking one of tracker/doctor/vig/jailkeeper/roleblocker/cop/JOAT/1shotvig/watcher/bulletproof or any other reasonable choice (hardly a cointoss) out of a hat and boom, you live at least an extra day in most towns. There hadn't even been a night for action-proving yet.

Now you think if llama is scum then llama must be a mysterious high value scumPR, which should further reduce the odds I'm scum in your mind, but you just don't care for some reason. And you also say Fate's theory makes sense and is supported by game events. And yesterday you thought my scumhunting looked sincere. Why are you still voting me again?

And I don't know if Bub is playing the newbcard at this point or what, but saying Fate hasn't given any reasoning is utterly false. This "the wagon chickened out" stuff is utter garbage.

[Yosarian2]

arg sorry guys, been really busy this week. I'll have a post up by this evening.

Please do. If this turns into one of those "I'll post later, I swear" posts where "later" turns into "never", I'm not going to be happy.