Cyclic Experimentation Set x01 - [Game Over]

[DrippingGoofball]

Not to mention how you'd be leaving Q21-tree-stump and CKD treestump-fail alive.

This move might cost the town the game.

[DrippingGoofball]

Anyone with an eye for it will see that I'm NOT playing to any scum meta. I've been so gung-ho with vote analysis. I can only be town.

[Saint]

IF WE DON'T LYNCH HER, THOUGH, IT COULD BE LYLO TOMORROW AT 4v3v1

vote: DGB

That's insane.

There aren't two full scum teams. There's only one scum team. What are the chances that no other scum team has had a lynch or a crosskill? Like, zero.

more misrepresentation
the 4 would be the town, and that is worst case scenario, as in if the town let you off the hook today we might end up paying for it through being forced between lynching on a 50/50 lynch to everyone

(assume you're in the 4 town, with 3 scum, and DGB as SK...):
you will see 3 town, 3 scum, and an obv-sk
ignoring DGB, as an obv-sk, and writing that off, you are left with 3 town and 3 scum
hence it would be 50:50 on whether or not the town win from every person's perspective.

Factor in Furcolow is in the game, nearing lylo, and the town are truly on a treacherous slope. (lol)
We really need to deal with this situation right now, as opposed to appealing to DGB to let us pull a leash around her neck. Do you all see DGB as a town-pet/mascot-sk? I don't.

IAI, hope you don't defend her, bro.

[DrippingGoofball]

Saint, so you think I'm SK, which I am not.

Are you afraid that I might NK Q21, and Q21 may be town, and failing to confirm you? Are you worried about this?

CKD is total obv scum. You think there's any chance he's town?

You saying I'm misrepping you is a little rich, after you lied about things I didn't say in some old QT. Get a grip, if you're town.

I'm town, and none of these scenarios you are fearmongering are going to happen.

[LimMePls]

IF WE DON'T LYNCH HER, THOUGH, IT COULD BE LYLO TOMORROW AT 4v3v1

vote: DGB

Nice appeal to fear there.

Time's up, lets do this, LEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEROYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY JENKINS!

Unvote
Vote: ckd

[Vi]

Not to mention how you'd be leaving Q21-tree-stump and CKD treestump-fail alive.

This move might cost the town the game.

Indeed we would be leaving q21 and ckd alive... for one Day.

Are you afraid that I might NK Q21, and Q21 may be town, and failing to confirm you? Are you worried about this?

CKD is total obv scum. You think there's any chance he's town?

You saying I'm misrepping you is a little rich, after you lied about things I didn't say in some old QT. Get a grip, if you're town.

I'm town, and none of these scenarios you are fearmongering are going to happen.

EPIC FLAIL

If IAI doesn't call Goofball out on any of this I will... not be surprised at all, actually.

Time's up, lets do this, LEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEROYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY JENKINS!

Unvote
Vote: ckd

IAI+GOOFBALL+LMP
-versus-
TMH+REDCOYOTE+???

THE EPIC BATTLE RAGES ON

[Saint]

This is REALLY getting old.

Not to mention how you'd be leaving Q21-tree-stump and CKD treestump-fail alive.

This move might cost the town the game.

Indeed we would be leaving q21 and ckd alive... for one Day.

Are you afraid that I might NK Q21, and Q21 may be town, and failing to confirm you? Are you worried about this?

CKD is total obv scum. You think there's any chance he's town?

You saying I'm misrepping you is a little rich, after you lied about things I didn't say in some old QT. Get a grip, if you're town.

I'm town, and none of these scenarios you are fearmongering are going to happen.

EPIC FLAIL

If IAI doesn't call Goofball out on any of this I will... not be surprised at all, actually.

Time's up, lets do this, LEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEROYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY JENKINS!

Unvote
Vote: ckd

IAI+GOOFBALL+LMP
-versus-
TMH+REDCOYOTE+???

THE EPIC BATTLE RAGES ON

[DrippingGoofball]

Saint,

Back off.

If you're town, back off. You're getting in the way of awesome, the kind of awesome that leads to little titles under one's name

Where are Q21 and CKD in your little scenario, there?

Suddenly, nowhere?

How do you go from me being 100% SK in the bag, to a whole scum group? A scum group with IAI??? IAI, who is townier than anyone can claim to be?

CKD and Q21 are town, now? GET REAL.

[DrippingGoofball]

Saint, you weren't voting CKD at all, were you.

[Saint]

*remembers sign that says "Do Not Feed The Trolls"*

I'll be happy to speak to anyone else at this point.

[Saint]

*remembers sign that says "Do Not Feed The Trolls"*

I'll be happy to speak to anyone else at this point.

Clarification because someone's going to ask -
Arguing with Goofball about her being scum is pointless; it's an argument I can't win. But I *can* convince other people to vote her.
That's a much better use of my time and patience.

[LimMePls]

IAI+GOOFBALL+LMP
-versus-
TMH+REDCOYOTE+???

THE EPIC BATTLE RAGES ON

EPIC FLAIL

[Saint]

I was wondering how long you were going to wait before deciding on a reaction to that.

So now that I have your attention, why are you glossing over Goofball being scum in favor of pushing ckd through?
I've very neatly outlined why she's scum and why she's a better lynch.

[popsofctown]

@Pops, you ask me if I am kidding. You said anti-scum factions would kill each other first. Well if that is the case, why is the shotgunning team shooting at MOI, Diddin, and me/Implosion? Your theory seems to only work for one team...

MoI was not particularly pro-town, just really active.

Diddin had been publically confirmed not to be a part of the shotgun faction, and wasn't autotown at all. As good of a shotgun target as an Elite standing a meter away with his shields down.

As for shooting you, idk. The shotgun faction might have thought tunneling and dueling scum is a thing. Or the primary scum faction may be less certain there are two factions, since the purge kill flavor had a rather positive ring to it. Or it'd be the second time someone who was attacking me had died, so perhaps I was the ~real~ kill target there.


I'd ask you, if it's the case that DGB is an SK, why'd she claim the RC shot D2? Your theory only works for one day..

Anyways, are you claiming SK? It appears you are softclaiming it.

Hardclaiming almost.

am not caught up, class

[LimMePls]

Oh, sorry, I thought that said "EPIC FAIL" Cause that's what it is, not EPIC FLAIL. That's different.

@Saint: ckd is scum. DGB is probably scum. The difference is massive.

[Saint]

Oh, sorry, I thought that said "EPIC FAIL" Cause that's what it is, not EPIC FLAIL. That's different.

This is 2011. Nobody should say EPIC FAIL except ironically.

@Saint: ckd is scum. DGB is probably scum. The difference is massive.

Almost. The difference WOULD be massive.
What makes ckd defscum while Goofball only probscum?

[LimMePls]

1) We told CKD to pass the treestump to TMH.
2) CKD did not pass the treestump to TMH.
3) TMH flipped scum.
4) Scum cannot pass abilities to their buddies.

This sequence of events has no logical explanation but that CKD and TMH are buddies. There are plenty of other reasons why too.

@Saint: Do you honestly believe DGB is part of a second scum team and not a SK? What evidence do you have of this?

[Saint]

1) We told CKD to pass the treestump to TMH.
2) CKD did not pass the treestump to TMH.
3) TMH flipped scum.
4) Scum cannot pass abilities to their buddies.

This sequence of events has no logical explanation but that CKD and TMH are buddies. There are plenty of other reasons why too.

Yes, between the failure to pass to tmh and generally not existing since sometime in Day 2 there's quite a bit of reason to believe that ckd is scum, and only a fragment of Page 4 words to defend him.

Contrast that with Goofball, who has been all but positively identified as scum and (separately) a killing element.

The difference looks like:
*ckd has a snowball's chance in Florida of being Town
*Goofball has a snowball's chance in Hell of being Town
*A Goofball lynch, if SK, would reduce the number of night-killing elements in the game by 1, slowing LyLo even with the Tree Stump still in play. If second scumgroup, it would cast everything that has been done during the Day and the Night so far in a completely different light.
Therefore a Goofball lynch is not only more likely to hit scum, but also more likely to help Town.

@Saint: Do you honestly believe DGB is part of a second scum team and not a SK? What evidence do you have of this?

There is no evidence. It's a possibility at best. We can find out by lynching Goofball, of course.

[I Am Innocent]

@Pops, you ask me if I am kidding. You said anti-scum factions would kill each other first. Well if that is the case, why is the shotgunning team shooting at MOI, Diddin, and me/Implosion? Your theory seems to only work for one team...

MoI was not particularly pro-town, just really active.

Diddin had been publically confirmed not to be a part of the shotgun faction, and wasn't autotown at all. As good of a shotgun target as an Elite standing a meter away with his shields down.

As for shooting you, idk

. The shotgun faction might have thought tunneling and dueling scum is a thing. Or the primary scum faction may be less certain there are two factions, since the purge kill flavor had a rather positive ring to it. Or it'd be the second time someone who was attacking me had died, so perhaps I was the ~real~ kill target there.

How do you know they shot me? I said either me (Doctor Protection) or Implosion (Hibernate Ability)?

Interesting.

**********
Saint/vi, you just went off your rockers.

We have a dead bad guy (TMH) and someone who was told and agreed to send a role to him. They failed to do so. It ("randomly") ended up in what many players consider a very town player.

You admit to being totally wrong this game, say you are going to follow mine and DGB's lead, and now you do a 180. I'm wondering if I have you and Pops mixed up after all...

**********
Saint/vi, your analysis on the previous page shows we are at 11 players currently, I believe it is 12, no?

*********
Saint/vi, you said that DGB was the likely target last night, but yet survived? How could that be if he did not have the Hibernate Ability and PleaseLynchMe said he protected me?

[I Am Innocent]

1) We told CKD to pass the treestump to TMH.
2) CKD did not pass the treestump to TMH.
3) TMH flipped scum.
4) Scum cannot pass abilities to their buddies.

This sequence of events has no logical explanation but that CKD and TMH are buddies. There are plenty of other reasons why too.

Yes, between the failure to pass to tmh and generally not existing since sometime in Day 2 there's quite a bit of reason to believe that ckd is scum, and only a fragment of Page 4 words to defend him.

Contrast that with Goofball, who has been all but positively identified as scum and (separately) a killing element.

The difference looks like:
*ckd has a snowball's chance in Florida of being Town
*Goofball has a snowball's chance in Hell of being Town
*A Goofball lynch, if SK, would reduce the number of night-killing elements in the game by 1, slowing LyLo even with the Tree Stump still in play. If second scumgroup, it would cast everything that has been done during the Day and the Night so far in a completely different light.
Therefore a Goofball lynch is not only more likely to hit scum, but also more likely to help Town.

Regarding the last line, I respectfully disagree.

DGB has been told to take out q21, and the treestump. Anyone else being purged is an autolynch D5.

We can have CKD, q21, and the treestump gone by the beginning of D5 or we can have DGB. Which sounds better?

[popsofctown]

There is too evidence. Occam's razor and process of elimination suggests two scumteams.
1. TownDGB neither has control of a perpetual nightkill nor lies about her abilities.
2. SKDGB doesn't claim her nightkill because it proves (1), and guarantees a lynch in SK lylo. Furthermore, the SK strategy that Vi copypasted from DGB's former QT says that DGBSK keeps a low profile and tries to tick neither scum nor town off. Claiming a nightkill doesn't fit that mold.
3. ScumDGB doesn't mind "proving" herself "SK", because it creates a lynch desire that's easily procrastinated to the point that her unscarred, unknown faction swings directly to victory. ScumDGB could also have a role interaction involving a teammate to protect her from nightkills, perhaps the ability remover of confusing mechanics does it somehow even. ScumDGB sees ckd lynch all lined up, and sees her place in the queue. It's the most plausible thing.


-cut-

IAI, why do you still expect a player who has claimed SK to be motivated by threat of delayed lynches?

[Saint]

We have a dead bad guy (TMH) and someone who was told and agreed to send a role to him. They failed to do so. It ("randomly") ended up in what many players consider a very town player.

This is true.

You admit to being totally wrong this game, say you are going to follow mine and DGB's lead, and now you do a 180. I'm wondering if I have you and Pops mixed up after all...

Circumstances have changed since I said that. For instance, Goofball is all but guaranteed to be scum.

Saint/vi, your analysis on the previous page shows we are at 11 players currently, I believe it is 12, no?

Read the assumptions again.

Saint/vi, you said that DGB was the likely target last night, but yet survived? How could that be if he did not have the Hibernate Ability and PleaseLynchMe said he protected me?

I'm reasonably sure you're speaking to the wrong Saint head. Regardless, SK+NK-immunity.

Given that there's no guarantee of SK+NK-immunity I'm willing to buy that you were targeted by <shotgunned>. You'll have to talk to Furc separately.

Until I see Goofball flip I'm not completely sold on you-Town.

DGB has been told to take out q21, and the treestump. Anyone else being purged is an autolynch D5.

We can have CKD, q21, and the treestump gone by the beginning of D5 or we can have DGB. Which sounds better?

That depends on whether ckd and q21 are scum, which isn't particularly debated...
More importantly, there's a flaw to trying to control an outed SK. The SK knows that from Town's POV she has to get lynched sometime before it obviously becomes too late; saying she'll get autolynched if she fails to fulfill her end of the job implies that she isn't already an autolynch for D5. (cut by pops saying the same thing) Even if she reaches LyLo, she doesn't necessarily pick up the win (she would need NK-immunity, normally). In this game, Goofball-SK's chance of victory requires that Tree Stump to stay in the game. There's no reason to believe she would aim for the Stump, instead either targeting whoever she could most likely get away with (me) or claiming to be Roleblocked. Granted, she can still be Tracked, but there are better things we could be doing with the Tracker than checking on known scum.

If we've established that ckd and q21 are both scum, we can easily lynch them on subsequent Days with scum:Town death parity. There is no such guarantee if we leave Goofball alive.

[Saint]

Of course, if Goofball is part of a scumgroup then the interactions this Day become what you could call "quite telling", and it allows us to correct for assuming scum+SK sooner. So that's another plus to lynching her now.

[popsofctown]

As furc has explained, leaving DGB alive is the most dangerous thing regardless of whether she's SK or an entire scumteam.

1. If DGB is SK and ckd is scum, lynching DGB puts the ckd lynch off a day, but then we lynch ckd the next day and an explosion of confirmed innocents and other preponderances of information win the game.
2. If DGB is SK and ckd is scum, lynching ckd gains the same preponderance of information and we then proceed with great accuracy, but we do so while potentially losing two townies a night, dampening the autowin down to a maybe. Yeah, maybe DGB is terrible at mafia and shoots q21, but even then you're just changing autowin of (1) to autowin, at the risk of losing autowin. Zat's no good.

If DGB is Sk and ckd isn't scum, but rather someone who didn't post in any games because he really wasn't on mafiascum, then lynching him means we lose up to two townies tonight, don't even get the helpful information, and are forced to lynch DGB the next day, and basically it's just like 2 except even more fail.

[Bunnylover]

Frankly I have to agree that lynching the SK is best. IT means the game won't end quicker, we should only have 1 kill at night, and we don't have to worry about that "what if DGB doesn't do what we say which would mean we would go CKD - 2 townies dead - DGB - 1 townie dead - Q21.

Vote: DGB

Frankly those who are saying that lynching DGB is scummy are idiots.
Scum would both want to keep DGB around so later down the line they can say, "Alright now lets stop scumhunting and kill this Sk we are all so sure about!"
Scum would also want to kill DGB now because it means they don't have to waste their NK on him and he is a threat to their win condidtion.
This all means that wanting/keeping DGB around is a null tell.