Mafia 124 - Dilemma Mafia (Day 6)

[Empking]

Vote Count 28

1. bobsnox
2. DarlaBlueEyes (1) - Jahudo
3. werewolf555
4. DLG
5. Jahudo
6. Bub Bidderskins
7. Fishythefish
8. Brokenscraps
9. DavidParker
10. Fate
11. Yosarian2 (4) - Fate, llamarble, bobsnox, Fishythefish
13. llarmable (4) - Yosarian2, Bub Bidderskins, werewolf555, DLG

Not Voting: DarlaBlueEyes, brokenscraps, DavidParker

With 12 alive its 7 to lynch

[Yosarian2]

And saying (as Yos did) that I didn't have time to make up a fakeclaim is absurd.

I never said anything of the sort. You're pretty much juts making stuff up at this point.

All that requires is picking one of tracker/doctor/vig/jailkeeper/roleblocker/cop/JOAT/1shotvig/watcher/bulletproof or any other reasonable choice (hardly a cointoss) out of a hat and boom, you live at least an extra day in most towns.

Out of those 10, most really conformable, and therefore horrible fake claims. Scum really can't just fake-claim vig or one-shot vig, for any number of reasons (the biggest one being that the real vig will probably just shoot him, plus of course you can't usually fake an extra nightkill). If you claim bulletproof or whatever, then again, logical option is for a vig to test your claim by shooting you. Jailkeeper and roleblocker are often testable, either through claimed night actions not matching other people's choices, or a vig saying "Ok, I'm going to shoot you. Prove you can roleblock me." (Plus if someone claims roleblocker, then people in the current meta are likely to assume they're a scum roleblocker anyway). JOAT is generally confirmable, depending on exactly what abilities are claimed.

The ones that aren't 100% confirmable (basically just doc and the info roles) are pretty major and pretty common power roles, all of which are very likely to be counterclaimed. (Even if it's not directly counterclaimed; if there is a cop and a tracker in the setup, and you claim watcher, people are going to figure out you're BSing.) Plus, even if it's not counterclaimed, keeping up a fake cop claim or whatever as scum for the long run without giving your buddies away is pretty damn challanging.

None of those roles really makes a great scum fake-claim; all of them are risky. You might get another day, but it's risky, and if you think you can argue your way out of it without BSing your way through a fake claim that will probably get you caught eventually, it's a good idea.

This is exactly why it's damn dangerous for a scum to try to fake-claim a power role in normals these days, and why so many scum claim VT instead.

The fact that you seem to think that "scum never claim VT", and are actually trying to use that as a defense, further undermines the argument by adding in a ton of WIFOM; if you think claiming VT is a good defense, then why wouldn't you claim VT is scum?

[Llamarble]

My best bet, based on the timing of his claim, is that he just couldn't come up with a good fake claim that'd be believed and wouldn't be counterclaimed. Considering the fairly narrow range of roles allowed in normal games these days, that's not really surprising.

This is what I'm referring to. I think it's ridiculous to believe I couldn't come up with a proper fakeclaim.
A. Most of the methods of confirming you described involve letting the claimant live extra days, which significantly increases the scums' odds of winning unless a buddy gets lynched instead. Since Whisky was town you can rule that out.
B. You can say you got roleblocked, since roleblockers are a very common scum PR.
C. If somebody does counterclaim, you've outed a PR, which is better than nothing.
D. While I believe scum (should) rarely claim VT D1, I am also aware that this is not an opinion shared by many players, and that many players are reluctant to lynch claimed powerroles while claimed VTs are usually lynched immediately. Maybe once I have enough meta for people to realize I only claim VT (D1 anyway) as town I can start claiming it as scum to take advantage of that, but I haven't played enough games for that to be obvious yet (2 scumgames completed).

[Yosarian2]

This is what I'm referring to. I think it's ridiculous to believe I couldn't come up with a proper fakeclaim.
A. Most of the methods of confirming you described involve letting the claimant live extra days, which significantly increases the scums' odds of winning unless a buddy gets lynched instead. Since Whisky was town you can rule that out.
B. You can say you got roleblocked, since roleblockers are a very common scum PR.
C. If somebody does counterclaim, you've outed a PR, which is better than nothing.

Sure. Faking a role claim > getting lynched right away.

But if you can claim vanilla and not get lynched, like you did, then that puts you in a much better position then faking a role claim that'll get you caught eventually. As scum, stalling your lynch from day 1 until day 2 is a pretty marginal improvement; giving yourself a shot at getting through until endgame by claiming vanilla is a better move for you to do as scum, if you think can pull it off. And you did.

I don't know where this recent idea that a VT claim is a town tell is coming from; I've heard it from a number of newbs recently, and I think it's blatantly absurd. A VT claim is either a null tell or a mild scum tell, depending on the circumstances. The idea that it's a town tell, and should be rewarded and encouraged as such, is both wrong and a horribly anti-town idea, and that idea needs to be killed with fire before it spreads. In an ideal work with proper play, pro-town people should never claim VT at all.

[bobsnox]

He should have died day one, but the stupid townies on his wagon chickened out.

Why are you assuming townies chickened out?

[Bub Bidderskins]

He should have died day one, but the stupid townies on his wagon chickened out.

Why are you assuming townies chickened out?

Because Llamarble was at L-1 and didn't get lynched, (i.e. the people on his wagon chickened out/got cold feet/backtracked/pick your expression).

And I don't know if Bub is playing the newbcard at this point or what, but saying Fate hasn't given any reasoning is utterly false. This "the wagon chickened out" stuff is utter garbage.

Fine, what are his reasons? From what I was reading, he just sort of commented on the game, and then arbitrarily said that you were town and yos was scum. If he did list reasons and I missed them, the repition won't hurt you.

Also, what do

you

call it when the town corners scum at L-1, forces a claim, and then lynches somebody totally un-related to the person they pressured?

[Llamarble]

Cmar had recently stated intent to hammer following a non-PR claim. My wagon was twice the size of anyone else's. I had no reason to expect I would survive after claiming VT. Also scumpower often helps scum 'prove' their fakeclaims.
@Bub:

Marble has been fighting for his life for goddamn last 15 pages of this thread for what I can see.

SO YEAH, when I come in and see how town he is and I fight on his side, unlike Fishy who is a passive player, he SUCKS UP TO ME.

BECAUSE I AM THE SAVIOR OF THIS TOWN.

This "he claimed VT at that point because if he had claimed PR it would've been countered" shit is just that.
1. A VT claim USUALLY results in a lynch, the fact that it didn't was a miracle of towniness from several people. THUS scum claim PR to either
-Live as a PR fakeclaim for ahwile
-Out a PR.
Also your excuse that "FF softclaimed, so marble didnt want to claim PR" is BS because WHETHER FF SOFTCLAIMED OR NOT, scum knows there are POWERROLES out ther ein this setup.


Go back. Re-read the WHOLE pages from when Marble was at L-2, to when he was at L-1, to when he claimed. His LINE OF THOUGHT was CLEARLY town. He wanted to get as much information and debate out there as possible, BEFORE claiming VT which he knew would likely result in his lynch.

THAT IS OBVTOWN.

Another thing: Devil's avocado on "Llmabrble wont die at night cuz hes scum" is stupid and just arguing for the sake of it.

Another thing: Vote Yosarian, not Llmarble. Llmarble doesn't die as long as I am alive. Is that clear? Mislynch him tomorrow if you fucks want, but not today.

Another thing: Marble's train of thought when Whisky was being run up, then softclaimed, then BULLSHIT CLAIMED, was clear as day.


Oh and here I am, I basically just listed all the reasons Marble is town.

SO THEREY OU GO YOSARIANSCUM, YOU GOT WHAT YOU WANTED. LETS SEE HOW YOU TWIST THESE POINTS

I think you've been much more worried about self-preservation then about anything else.

I don't think Whiskey is scum either, though I'm in the middle of a post on that.
Let's lynch BB.

I try hard not to get lynched as all roles and all alignments.
Not getting lynched is playing toward your wincon unless you're a jester.
Also VT happens to be my favorite normal role.

^This is not scum worried abotu self-preservation. He calls the counter wagon, that

we know was on town

, "not a good choice" and call Whisky TOWN, when he could've easily had a "scum" read on him to justify Whisky's wagon.

NEXT.

I call people lynching one person when they could have lynched another "thinking and deciding another player is more likely to be scum."
I believe Bobsnox's point is that you referred to the players who got off my wagon as "townies" which may have been an alignment-knowledge slip.

[bobsnox]

yep

[Jahudo]

Well I got around to a partial ISO at least.

it sounds like Llamarble already knows Darla is going to flip town.

I don’t think this is a reliable tell. A lot of people have called flips in this game, many about llamarble being as good as caught scum. It comes from confidence, not inside information.

Anyone who votes you is scum, huh?

You kinda have a point, at one point or another he did call everyone on his wagon scum except Final Fires (and bobs who he called town by the time bobs voted him).
Yosarian and Nikanor, Bub Bidderskins, brokenscraps. But from the perspective of a hypo-llamarble-town he would be trying to find the scum on his wagon, so its not unheard of to focus on two people while being wary of a couple more.

I don't think you have. Most of your attacks look like OMGUS to me. I don't see Bub as suspicious at all. I also think your "Yos and Bub are scum together and they're part of an elaborate plan to lynch Darla" theory is raving paranoia at best; it dosn't seem to be based on any actual evidence of anything in the game, it more seems like a wild theory you cobbled together based on nothing to allow you to attack the people who suspect you.

Llamarble jumped to one conclusion with that theory. He didn't say why it was more likely than anything else. It looked like he chose the outcome to fit with his narrative actually. Without that evidence (ie: the difference between calling someone being wagoned town and preparing for their lynch) it does look suspicious coming from him, like when he called Whisky pretty bad in one post and a convenient scumtarget in the next. Man, I hadn't seen it that way before.

the posts don't look like a coherent attempt to scumhunt at all, more like a series of wild swings in a last ditch attempt to go after or discredit anyone and everyone who was attacking him.

And most of the swings were against the most vocal people on his wagon, the ones pushing it harder. It’s how scum probably would operate in that situation, assuming those votes are there to stay while being nicer to the swing votes. That would possibly require exaggerating tells against the stronger voices while ignoring similar tells against the swing votes.

One could argue that Whisky was sitting on the Darla wagon with weak reasons as much as Bub did, if not more. This might be something here.

I can see Yos town taking the stances he did on day 1 for the most part. I wished he had explained more of the flailing in detail at the time, and even the clarifications felt like generalizations, but I could see that he is depending his llamarble-scum read with his Bub-town read alot too. He thought Bub took an even and genuine stance on the Darla wagon, llamarble disagrees and sees a different conclusion.

Llamarble makes more sense as a lynch to me than Yosarian. There are more questionable motivations on that side. So even though I've been gun ho about a Darla lynch today, I'll help the arms race right now.

unvote;
Vote: llamarble

[bobsnox]

how about we lynch Bub or Darla today?

[Fate]

Thats horse-shit Jahundo, and it won't be forgotten when Yos fips scum.

[Fate]

Yosarian is basing literally ALL HIS READS off "Marbe is SCUM YOZ"

Now, he's either a shitty town player (no)

Or a scumbag trying to use his fabricated case to chain other fabricated cases, aka "I wouldnt be able to make a real case against fishy's play by itself, so I'll just tie him to my MArble case by saying hes defending his buddy. hehehehhee"

And JAHUNDO is content to put Marble at L-??whatever when Darla hasn't even POSTED yet.

Bullshit and more bullshit.

I swear this day is NOT ending in a marble lynch unless you get ALL DEM SCUMBAGS on the wagon right now.

[DarlaBlueEyes]

I've read over the last few pages of posts, and really the only thing I came away with of any consequence is how badly Llama is sheeping fate, and as someone said (idr who it was anymore) brown-nosing Fate who's being loud, and aggressive, and easily derailing the llama wagon. I didn't want to lynch Llama the first page into D1 but I think his play has gotten progressively worse and lazier and he's just resting on his laurels letting Fate do all the work for him.

DLG strikes me as town, so does Jahudo

Null reads on Yos and Fate, honestly I find them both a little intimidating and difficult to read

Llama and Bob both still seem scummy to me, bob for the same reasons I've mentioned in d1, and llama for his shameless sheeping d2 and him trying once more to get his wagon derailed by any means possible without actually putting forth any original thoughts. I'd love to see a bob lynch, and I need to go look back at fishy more closely because I have a null read on him too, but for now, and DavidParker person I wanna see something from too.

vote Llama

Sorry this is rushed I have been having a super hectic week and only got a short amount of time here to be on MS before I need to toddle off to bed for my early morning. Will pick it up tomorrow night, which is when my hectic schedule clears up.

[DarlaBlueEyes]

ebwop first page of D2***

[Fate]

A LLAMA VOTE?

WHAT A BIG FUCKING SURPRISE.

JAHUNDO.

GET YOUR ASS BACK IN HERE

[Llamarble]

THAT WAS L - 1

On Darla's votejustification:
Accusing me of lacking original thoughts does not make sense.
Yes, I am happy that a llama/Fishy/Fate townalliance has formed. Fishy's post about feeling more optimistic agreed completely with my feelings. Fate happens to be my favorite player on MS (true since well before I joined this game), so when he shows up, realizes I'm town, and it finally looks like town has a real chance of winning, I feel extremely relieved/vindicated/happy.

On sheeping accusation:
I am voting the same person Fate is voting, but it's not like I haven't given reasoning. In fact, a lot of Fate's own reasoning was exactly the same as things I had pointed out earlier. It's true that I value Fate's opinion highly and that him agreeing on those matters made me trust those arguments more (Fishy apparently felt similarly), pushing Yos over Bub on my scumlist. But by no means am I voting Yos simply because I was told to.

On Jahudo's votejustification:
First off, I said Ender, Whisky, and Bobsnox looked like easy scumtargets IF TOWN. So that doesn't conflict with my then scumread on Whisky.
I described what the situation felt like to me (Yosscum prepping to target bobs/whisky after a darlatownflip). Sure there are other ways to read that situation, but that was an explanation which made the world make sense to me. It's really hard to prove that sort of interpretation is "more likely than anything else," so I stated it so other players could see it and decide if they felt the same way.

This "attacking the vocal voices more than the swing voters" stuff is garbage. Vocal wagonpushers said more things, so I ended up responding to / raging at them more.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Cmar had recently stated intent to hammer following a non-PR claim. My wagon was twice the size of anyone else's. I had no reason to expect I would survive after claiming VT. Also scumpower often helps scum 'prove' their fakeclaims.
@Bub:

Marble has been fighting for his life for goddamn last 15 pages of this thread for what I can see.

SO YEAH, when I come in and see how town he is and I fight on his side, unlike Fishy who is a passive player, he SUCKS UP TO ME.

BECAUSE I AM THE SAVIOR OF THIS TOWN.

This "he claimed VT at that point because if he had claimed PR it would've been countered" shit is just that.
1. A VT claim USUALLY results in a lynch, the fact that it didn't was a miracle of towniness from several people. THUS scum claim PR to either
-Live as a PR fakeclaim for ahwile
-Out a PR.
Also your excuse that "FF softclaimed, so marble didnt want to claim PR" is BS because WHETHER FF SOFTCLAIMED OR NOT, scum knows there are POWERROLES out ther ein this setup.


Go back. Re-read the WHOLE pages from when Marble was at L-2, to when he was at L-1, to when he claimed. His LINE OF THOUGHT was CLEARLY town. He wanted to get as much information and debate out there as possible, BEFORE claiming VT which he knew would likely result in his lynch.

THAT IS OBVTOWN.

Another thing: Devil's avocado on "Llmabrble wont die at night cuz hes scum" is stupid and just arguing for the sake of it.

Another thing: Vote Yosarian, not Llmarble. Llmarble doesn't die as long as I am alive. Is that clear? Mislynch him tomorrow if you fucks want, but not today.

Another thing: Marble's train of thought when Whisky was being run up, then softclaimed, then BULLSHIT CLAIMED, was clear as day.


Oh and here I am, I basically just listed all the reasons Marble is town.

SO THEREY OU GO YOSARIANSCUM, YOU GOT WHAT YOU WANTED. LETS SEE HOW YOU TWIST THESE POINTS

I think you've been much more worried about self-preservation then about anything else.

I don't think Whiskey is scum either, though I'm in the middle of a post on that.
Let's lynch BB.

I try hard not to get lynched as all roles and all alignments.
Not getting lynched is playing toward your wincon unless you're a jester.
Also VT happens to be my favorite normal role.

^This is not scum worried abotu self-preservation. He calls the counter wagon, that

we know was on town

, "not a good choice" and call Whisky TOWN, when he could've easily had a "scum" read on him to justify Whisky's wagon.

NEXT.

I call people lynching one person when they could have lynched another "thinking and deciding another player is more likely to be scum."
I believe Bobsnox's point is that you referred to the players who got off my wagon as "townies" which may have been an alignment-knowledge slip.

So to sum it all up, the only reason he thinks you're town is becacuse you claimed VT. And question, is Whisky more likely scum than you? No. We are now 100% sure that Whisky was not scum. It was chickening out. Fishy and you were able to sow enough doubt into the read, and so they got cold feet. That's what happened. Don't even attempt to say that it was anything else.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Arg! Misplaced modifier *head desk*. The third-to-last sentence should read:

Fishy and you were able to sow enough doubt into the read, and so the

town

got cold feet.

[Jahudo]

Darla darla over here! Can I ask you some questions? 1, 2.

Yeah that's L-1 on llamarble again. Actually I'm going to unvote because I don't want the day to end without content from werewolf and david.

First off, I said Ender, Whisky, and Bobsnox looked like easy scumtargets IF TOWN. So that doesn't conflict with my then scumread on Whisky.

True, you may be conflicted in thinking Whisky was suspicious and also a scumtarget if you are wrong, BUT you also based your theory of Yos and Bub setting up mislynches off Darla. Take our your uncertainty over Whisky's alignment, that you hadn't called bobsnox town by that point yet, and you are left with the burden of proof that your own lynch is a mislynch. It doesn't look like a solid argument from an outside perspective.

I described what the situation felt like to me (Yosscum prepping to target bobs/whisky after a darlatownflip). Sure there are other ways to read that situation, but that was an explanation which made the world make sense to me. It's really hard to prove that sort of interpretation is "more likely than anything else," so I stated it so other players could see it and decide if they felt the same way.

Wait, were you also someone considering multiple scum factions? Otherwise if you were not confident about all the variables (your Darla read was developing, Whisky didn't look obvtown) I don't know why you would find that situation most likely on that end of the theory. So it really has to be about Yos and Bub.

Can you point to a specific thing about Bub and Yos that looked like a scum move, and how you would picture town doing it differently? Or do you think that the entire stance was no good?

This "attacking the vocal voices more than the swing voters" stuff is garbage. Vocal wagonpushers said more things, so I ended up responding to / raging at them more.

Did you think Whisky had more justification to be on the Darla wagon than Bub?

unvote

[DLG]

@ Empking:
I will be V/LA until at least late Sunday evening, more likely Monday.

@ Llamarble
In regards to the discussion about your role claim, please answer this.

@CMAR: please read and comment on my case on Bub. I intend to claim only after a good number of responses to it or on Tuesday, whichever comes first. That will still leave 4 days for post-claim discussion.

What post-claim discussion were you anticipating would arise from your VT claim? If you anticipated claiming VT would be a death sentence, just what discussion did you think was going to take place? I saw that as a hint towards a PR claim.

You posted this directly after CryMeARiver said he would hammer if you did not claim a PR. On Day 2 you posted this:

Cmar had recently stated intent to hammer following a non-PR claim. My wagon was twice the size of anyone else's. I had no reason to expect I would survive after claiming VT.

So, why hint towards a PR there? My conclusion is that you were looking for a PR claim that you thought might fly, and finally decided the risk was too high.

[DavidParker]

SOOOOOOOOOOON. Drun now. SOo, soon.

[brokenscraps]

werewolf has a horrible vote on Llamarble.

Darla's vote on Llamarble looks like a justified ("he is sheeping, lynch him!") rather than a believed vote.

Despite Jahudo voting (and then unvoting) Llamarble he seems to be taking a no-strong-accusations approach. "There are some questionable motives on Yos, there are some questionable motives on Llama, I have a strong-scum read on Darla, let's vote Llama to 'help the arms race'". Not a good vote.

Bud's reasoning abilities have collapsed somewhat and he has stuck on the Llama vote apparently because Llama didn't get lynched day 1. I can just imagine the cases that will be made if Llama doesn't get lynched day 2.

As it is I'm uneasy about Llama being town, but the votes on him just seem so poor...

Jahudo's vote seemed the worst, but I'm not too sure about the unvote...

Conspiracy theory: Yos/Fate/Llama are having more fun bussing than they've ever had before. Game over town. Game over.

[Jahudo]

Questionable motives on Yos? Nope, I don't think that.

[Fate]

DLG YOU'RE SEEING SHIT THAT ISN'T THERE.

POST CLAIIM DISCUSSION IS JUST THAT, POST CLAIM. JUST BECAUSE IT RESULTS IN HIS DEATH DOESN'T MEAN THERE SHOULDN'T BE DISCUSSION.

MY GOD WHY ARE YOU ALLL SO TERRIBLE. I DOUBT THE ENTIRE SCUMTEAM IS VOTING LL.

BROKENSCRAPS YOU TOO ARE BAD?

"LOOK AT ALL THE SHITTY VOTES ON MARBLE. OBUT WAIT, FATE/NARBBLE/YOS TEA PARTYLOL"

HOW BOUT YOU CLOWNS STOP READING MARBLES ISO TRYING TO LOOK FOR SCUMTELLS AND LISTEN TO ME WHEN I SAY HE'S FUCKIN TOWN

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian is basing literally ALL HIS READS off "Marbe is SCUM YOZ"

Now, he's either a shitty town player (no)

Or a scumbag trying to use his fabricated case to chain other fabricated cases, aka "I wouldnt be able to make a real case against fishy's play by itself, so I'll just tie him to my MArble case by saying hes defending his buddy. hehehehhee

Not at all.

My town read on you, on DLG, and on Bub dosn't have anything to do with marble. I thought DLG and Bub were likely town even before they voted for marble, remember.

My read on Fishy is partly based on a possible connection to Marble, but, even without that, I think Fishy is acting, well, fishy. Even in the (very unlikely) hypo-Llama-town scenerio, the most likely explanation of Fishy's behavior so far would still be Fishy-scum.

That being said, yes, I've stayed focused on Marble. He's my strongest suspect right now by a large margin, so I'm going to keep focused on him until someone (ideally marble) convinces me Marble might be town, until someone else manages to look even more scummy then Marble does (which would be quite an accomplishment at this point), or until he's dead.