Mafia 124 - Dilemma Mafia (Day 6)

[Empking]

Vote Count 37

1. bobsnox
2. DarlaBlueEyes (1) - Jahudo
3. werewolf555
4. DLG
5. Jahudo
6. Bub Bidderskins (5) - Fishythefish, DLG, llamarble, Fate, bobsnox
7. Fishythefish
8. Brokenscraps
9. DavidParker
10. Fate (4) - Yosarian2, werewolf555, Bub Bidderskins, DavidParker
11. Yosarian2
13. llarmable

Not Voting: brokenscraps, DarlaBlueEyes

With 12 alive its 7 to lynch

[Fate]

Last time I checked ms etiquette, faking V/LAs to tactically lurk isa low as it gets. AKA grasp at more straws please, unvotinng someone who nwent from stalling to v/la is legitimate.

Testing waters my ass, that's. Just another way to mscharaceterizee scumhunting. I've taken HARD AND CLEEAR stances, there's no water testing bs here.

[Bub Bidderskins]

What I don't get about Fate's play is that I can't see a townie being so desperate to stop a claimed vanilla townie from being lynched on D-2. Okay, if it was LYLO or really late into the game, I would understand it. But on day 2? Really?

On the other hand, I could see a scum doing that to protect his partner. Admittantly it seems really risky from a scum perspective, but it makes more sense than the town version.

[DLG]

Bub vs. Fate, I don't have either as scummy (my picks are darla, david and fishy, with broken as extra gut read) but I'll iso them anyway.

You've given some reasons for your Darla vote. But, what about DavidParker, Fishythefish, and even brokenscraps?

Re: DarlaBlueEyes

There's also her claim that she assumed the two vote changes before her llamarble vote had come off Whiskey, even though one of them included the "unvote fishythefish" line and it was the exact post before her.

What do you suppose would be her scum motivation for doing this? If MoreWhisky had flipped scum, I think this would have been a very scummy move from DarlaBlueEyes. But, with the town flip, what scum motivation is there to her vote switch?

[DLG]

@ werewolf555
Do you have any opinion on anyone besides Fate or DavidParker at this time?

[Llamarble]

Reread Rekirts->Cmar->DP and Bub. I now entirely agree with him being next lynch/vig if Bub flips scum.
And I remain quite happy with my Bub vote.

Reasons Bub & DP are buddies to follow. Some are individual tells & some associative.

Rekirts:
Pushed Darla wagon with Bub. Mentions Bub's "good observation."
Otherwise talks minimally about Bub.
Uses laugh defense to Nikanor's accusation of him.
Buddies DLG while DLG is willing to push on Darla.

CMAR:
"Bub has the same thoughts as I do (post 38), though not necessarily in a protown fashion" I think this is technically softclaiming Bub as a scumbuddy with a bit of distancing mixed in.
Continues team effort @ buddying DLG.
Posts similar scumlist to Bub's.
NEVER ACTUALLY MENTIONED ANY REASON FOR FINDING ME SCUMMY. Then put me on top of his scumlist and said he'd hammer if the town gave him permission, and followed that up by saying he agreed with Nikanor that I was townlike.
FOS: Bub Vote: Bob when Bub has more case made against him, is a more plausible lynch, and both look similar under his wagon analysis.
Next votes whisky saying he thinks I'm scum with whisky.
D2 Says there is scum in Broken/bub/me/bob as that's the early FF wagon, now Ender making the worst vote and Bob less scummy. So still it's FOS Bub, but now llama is a major suspect again despite his contrary interpretation of events yesterday. He replaces out before giving a decision between me/Bub.

DP:
DP ALSO thinks Bub is town and barely mentions him otherwise, making the slot 3 for 3 except for CMAR's unacted upon FOS. Replacements sometimes agree with who they replaced, but here it looks like they're simply all following the same plan.
Hops onto Fate wagon after the gambit is exposed, at a time when scum would be thrilled to get a free LAL lynch.
His werewolf vote sounds like hehehahaha this townie is soooo scummy! (which may mean WW isn't scum)
Hops chainsaw style back onto Fate for a weak reason when Fate begins to direct the wagon onto BB.

Bub:
A bunch of stuff already mentioned for individual tells.
FOSes Nikanor for his Rekirts vote & asks what the reasons are, then without any response from Nikanor dismisses Nik as a VI.
Doesn't really ever say anything else about Rekirts, Cmar, or DP, though to be fair he's pretty much spending all of his posts attacking me for awhile and only recently has switched to Fate.

[Yosarian2]

What I don't get about Fate's play is that I can't see a townie being so desperate to stop a claimed vanilla townie from being lynched on D-2. Okay, if it was LYLO or really late into the game, I would understand it. But on day 2? Really?

On the other hand, I could see a scum doing that to protect his partner. Admittantly it seems really risky from a scum perspective, but it makes more sense than the town version.

I have to say, I thin it's unlikely Llama does that to save a scumbuddy. Way too risky, it ties the two of them together too closely.

On the other hand, Llama-scum fakes a cop claim to save a VT, that VT now is going to trust him and vote with him for the rest of the game, and isn't going to ever be a threat to his scum group.

If Fate flips scum, I really think Llama is town. Even if it looks like we're not going to be able to lynch Fate today, I'm defiantly not going to go back to voting Llama today, and probably not at all until I know Fate's alignment.

[Empking]

Deadline in a week

[brokenscraps]

Sorry for activity lack, I'm skimming bits at the moment and some of Bud's posts are still looking mighty dodgy, I didn't really have any problems with him yesterday but he seems to have dropped the ball a bit, I'll have a proper catch-up post in the next day or two.

[DLG]

I have to say, I thin it's unlikely Llama does that to save a scumbuddy. Way too risky, it ties the two of them together too closely.

When you voted Whiskey, two days before deadline, you had a choice.

This is twice now that you have reversed players in your posts. Why are you paying so little attention to your posts?

I want answers from Jahudo, brokenscraps, and werewolf555. From all three, I want explanations as to why any player might seem scum.

I definitely want an answer from Bub Bidderskins regarding his characterization of the deterioration of the Llamarble wagon. The question in particular is

Who are you referring to as having lost their nerve?

[Fishythefish]

Prodded! Sorry, weekends are bad sometimes.

I happy that my vote's in the best place for today. Nothing about BB makes me think he's town at all. His moves onto the Llama and Fate wagons yesterday and today were both timed strategically for scum, and I don't find the reasoning for either convincing. I like this wagon, and the company is pretty shiny as well - Llama and Fate are town, and none of my scumreads are on it. Let's lynch us some BBscum.

[Jahudo]

@DLG:

My Striker (David's predecessor) suspicions: link.
My CryMeARiver (other David predecessor) suspicions: link.
Judging David himself, so far I can't tell if he's read the entire thread or how much. Its allowed him to stay silent on some pretty big issues, like yesterday's llama wagon and its supporting cast of Bub, Yos and Fishy in particular. I think town would want to look there for insight, but scum might not want to get caught up in it and be paired up with someone.

My Fishy suspicion came from your case DLG, how he transitioned from llama-defense to a vote is questionable, but the thing is I can't think of good conclusions as to why hypo-scum would defend a buddy that late, or feel the need to vote either townie if both wagons were mislynches. By like Darla, I have trouble seeing a town point of view in compromising the way they did, how they both changed their mind so quickly from not wanting to compromise---to compromising.

My brokenscraps suspicion up until recently has been a "I've got a bad feeling but I can't put my finger on it" feeling which I've been trying to develop before I explain, but I guess I pretty much understand it now so:

696 : broken thinks llama might be scum but focuses on his wagon being bad. He doesn't explain most of his reads (including my vote, werewolfs vote, darla's vote) in this post, which looks more like keeping his options (and his reasoning) open as long as he can. It looks like he's purposefully not taking a stance on whether llama or the llama wagon looks more scum.

This attitude helped me understand some of his Day 1 play:

443 : Broken unvotes llama, while still being wary of him, and then implies that scum might be responsible for the llama wagon falling apart. Its the same as 696, he feels like he wants to put suspicion on practically everyone.

--------

DLG, you make a good point about Darla's motivation for changing votes. I had not looked at it that way. I will have to consider it some more.

[Yosarian2]

I have to say, I thin it's unlikely Llama does that to save a scumbuddy. Way too risky, it ties the two of them together too closely.

When you voted Whiskey, two days before deadline, you had a choice.

This is twice now that you have reversed players in your posts. Why are you paying so little attention to your posts?

I didn't reverse myself all. What are you talking about?

...

(read)

D'oh. I meant to say "I think it's unlikely Fate does that to save a scumbuddy." That probably should have been clear from what I was responding to, though.

Defending a scumbuddy is one thing; scum do that all the time. But faking a cop innocent to save a scumbuddy, on day 2? That seems much less likely to me.

[DLG]

Yeah, I had no trouble understanding your intent. I don't even attach any particular scumminess to the mistakes. I was just wondering if there was something hidden that I was missing. Your response eases my concerns because I find it likely that you might just make those mistakes if posting without really reviewing the posts.

[DarlaBlueEyes]

hey guys, here now. Sort of. Reading all the stuff I've missed, but I have several games to catch up in so I might be slow in getting a response up. I'll reply in order of game deadlines, which puts this one near the top of the list.

[DLG]

@ Jahudo
Re: Rekirts => CryMeARiver => DavidParker, fair enough. I read those earlier posts as more questions than accusations, but that seems in line with your approach which is less directly aggressive than other approaches.

Re: Fishythefish
I still wonder about Fihsythefish as town settling for a Llamarble vote at the end of Day 1. But, given his earlier read of that slot as scummy, I can see a townie approach behind attacking what may have looked to him like a scum quicklynch and still reverting to a stronger scum read than MoreWhisky. I don't accept Fishythefish allowing himself to be tied to Llamarble so strongly as a definitive town move. If Llamarble is ever revealed as scum, Fishythefish's motivations will need further scrutiny.

Re: DarlaBlueEyes
I found her earlier play more indicative of scum than her later play, as opposed to your read of her play. I only brought up the vote switch to highlight this disparity. I would not stand in opposition to a DarlaBlueEyes lynch, and separate from what seems a severe personal crisis, I would support such a lynch.

Re: brokenscraps
I find myself in agreement with your instinctual scum feeling towards brokenscraps. I often find myself forgetting his impact on the game. This is a beautiful feeling for scum to engender in other players. For me, one hinky post by brokenscraps was this justification for his MoreWhisky vote:

This is how whisky votes Darla. That post didn't contain attempts to pin the scum tug on players, the questions she asks are not anti-town and posting from a phone is a horrible reason to vote someone. Yet he hasn't lifted his vote and continues to treat it as serious. Horrible vote-parking?

The key is that brokenscraps himself penetrated the confusion surrounding the phone business. Still, he uses this confusion as a reason to attach to what turned out to be a mislynch. This looks like scum just providing a likely reason for attaching a vote to a mislynch.

[bobsnox]

I realize I haven't posted in close to 48 hours but I'm still here reading everything. Nothing I've seen since my last post has changed anything from my point of view.

[Bub Bidderskins]

I definitely want an answer from Bub Bidderskins regarding his characterization of the deterioration of the Llamarble wagon. The question in particular is

Who are you referring to as having lost their nerve?

I don't remember ever saying anybody in particular lost their nerve. I said that that the townies on the Llamarble wagon at the end of D-1 chickened out, but I was saying that in the general sense. Llama was at L-1 twice and somebody could have hammered. Instead, people lost their nerve and jumped onto Whisky.

[bobsnox]

loltownies

Is this a dead horse yet?

[Fate]

Last time I checked Buds was an alive horse.

He needs to be dead though

[Llamarble]

Yeah, I think it's about time we finally lynch Bub. I'll update my case against him next chance I get if people need help being convinced.

[werewolf555]

Why are we lynching bub instead of Fate, who has a proven fakeclaim?

[Jahudo]

What is the logic to lynching Fate before llama if you think this tell is good?

[Fate]

I don't what the logic behind lynching town-me before townLlam would be, but it would probably be scum driven.

I had forgotten Werewolf was voting me. Still there's only one scum in DP/Werewolf, so I'm not concerned right now.

[Jahudo]

I'm just wondering if anyone else besides Yos thinks you'd defend a townie like that when you are scum. I know you like to be right but man that seems like such a counter-productive strategy.