Final Fires wrote:
What is everyone's opinion on whether I should mention who didn't know what a VT was called? Everyone seems to be avoiding that question.
Does it matter? go for it if you believe it pro-town to mention
It matters because only two people wouldn't know what a VT is called: Scum or a PR. If I say anything, there's a chance I could out a scum, but there's another chance I could out a PR. I'm asking people if that's a risk they want me to take. It's big risk, big reward, and I don't feel like it's right for me to gamble that without a majority's approval first.
@FF - I'm torn. On one hand I think you've probably already given the scum enough info to find it if they hadn't already caught it so you may as well point it out to the rest of us. On the other hand, maybe they won't be able to find it and you should let it drop. (We could also reread and try to find it on our own individually.) I think you should be careful not to out your own role more than you have, unless you're scum trying to look town with all this and then, carry on.
As for the "catch", I thought I made it pretty clear how confident I am that umbrage is town. Confident enough to risk being mislynched for it. Yeah, maybe it's not the smartest move a townie can make, but I really don't think there's any chance she's going to flip scum. I'm betting my life on it - maybe that's not smart since I don't KNOW her alignment, but I have a lot of reasons to think she's town. The latest of which is her "catch" which she wouldn't have done if she were about to flip scum (since then it's no longer a catch since how could I KNOW she's town if she's actually scum.)
Setael wrote:As for the "catch", I thought I made it pretty clear how confident I am that umbrage is town. Confident enough to risk being mislynched for it. Yeah, maybe it's not the smartest move a townie can make, but I really don't think there's any chance she's going to flip scum. I'm betting my life on it - maybe that's not smart since I don't KNOW her alignment, but I have a lot of reasons to think she's town. The latest of which is her "catch" which she wouldn't have done if she were about to flip scum (since then it's no longer a catch since how could I KNOW she's town if she's actually scum.)
If he is scum, he would do everything in his power to shift the wagon, including pointing out slips in your post. Trying to move the bandwagon on to you and off of him is not a town tell. I still think that the catch was a good one, which is why you shot up towards the top of my suspect list. After a few days I could understand if you felt that strongly about a player, but this is day one; we don't even have one flip to solidify our reads.
Final Fires wrote:If he is scum, he would do everything in his power to shift the wagon, including pointing out slips in your post. Trying to move the bandwagon on to you and off of him is not a town tell. I still think that the catch was a good one, which is why you shot up towards the top of my suspect list. After a few days I could understand if you felt that strongly about a player, but this is day one; we don't even have one flip to solidify our reads.
I disagree. My post was a good case on her not being scum. If she's scum it'd make a lot more sense for her to wait and see if my post derailed her wagon, rather than undermining me and almost certainly negatively affecting my post's effect. I can see your point though that I shouldn't be so certain she's town when I really don't know. Suspect me for it if you want, I'm just that confident. I'll sure have pie on my face if I'm wrong, but again I have a lot of really solid reasons to think she's town so I'm good with my read.
While waiting for everyone to pick one of the leading wagons, we should nominate who we're voting to give the night kill to tonight. (I don't have time to reread for both possible flips on both SV and umbrage so I'm waiting until it's decided). My #1 choice at this point is Final Fires (due especially to the last couple of pages) and my #2 is TS. Not sure how this should work.
FF wrote:Town points for her if Umbrage flips town! - Basically what I'm trying to say is, is that I don't think Umbrage and Setael are both scum; I think it's one or the other.
So, if I'm town, how exactly will Setael look to you?
Also, regarding the VT claim thing: as the scum likely don't have access to a kill, I see no harm in outing a PR. Might want to wait until D2 to be sure though.
OK, I'm going to go off on a train of thought here... It is almost certain that I have scum on my wagon. Now, I doubt that scum is Exe or charter because they aren't bandwagoning me, they've been pushing me for a long time now, they couldn't have known that I'd be the most likely kill target. And they haven't slowed down either. So either they are very lucky, very brazen scum, or they're town. In the same way, the last few posts by FF make me suspect him more: he's not on my case as much, he was gung-ho before, but now that the wagon's going, he's distancing himself. On the other hand, we have Setael, who replaced in when the wagon on me was picking up momentum. It would be really convenient for him as scum to say I'm town as I'm being strung up. He's really sure I'm town, and I don't know why.
So...
@ Final Fires: Do you still think I'm the most likely to be scum?
@ Setael: What makes you so sure I'm town?
SO wrote:A 31 day page is WAY to long... please kill vezo
A 11 word post is WAY to short... please kill SO
I'll explain it to you. You have to get someone else to understand it for you.
Umbrage wrote:@ Setael: What makes you so sure I'm town?
me wrote:I had the same reaction to exe's gambit as Umbrage did. I totally bought it and was pissed exe hadn't given TS a chance to claim.
me wrote:To vote umbrage for calling for exe's death after the fake day vig, you are assuming that exe is definitely town and that scum umbrage, knowing exe's alignment, tried to use his day kill as a way to get him lynched. It's just crap logic. First, in assuming exe is definitely town which if you're a townie you don't know that for sure and second, to think that scum would really think it a good move to call for the death of a protown vig (I can't see scum ever thinking this is a good idea, especially when that vig is going to flip town, guaranteeing major suspicion from the town. Scum are more careful than that.) It looks a LOT more like a townie who, not knowing TS's alignment, was pissed about such a stupid, senseless day kill.
me again wrote:I also am offended that Umbrage is saying she's the ONLY one scum hunting and the only one around who isn't an idiot. Everyone is perfectly justified in being annoyed by being lumped into that generalization. However, that doesn't make her scum. Some of you are probably scum taking advantage of her antagonistic playstyle, but others of you are town and you need to look beyond how obnoxious she's being and think. Would scum really make the post she made after the mock day kill?... My answer ... is hells no.
I'm going to assume you're really busy and not just lazy, 'cause I feel like I've made this clear wrote:
Final Fires wrote:I feel very good about this execution. Townies don't defend other townies like Umbrage defended SO. The way Umbrage reacted to exe's fake daykill has very little to do with my vote against him.
Sure they do, all the time. Especially when your top scum reads jump on the wagon as opportunistically as SV and vezok did. She may have gone overboard (especially with the getting personal) but she never looked scummy to me.
You know who DOESN'T ever defend that blatantly? Scum buddies, especially this early in the game. If umbrage and SO are both scum, I'll eat my shorts.
yep, still me wrote:I don't KNOW her alignment, but I have a lot of reasons to think she's town. The latest of which is her "catch" which she wouldn't have done if she were about to flip scum (since then it's no longer a catch since how could I KNOW she's town if she's actually scum....If she's scum it'd make a lot more sense for her to wait and see if my post derailed her wagon, rather than undermining me and almost certainly negatively affecting my post's effect. I can see your point though that I shouldn't be so certain she's town when I really don't know. Suspect me for it if you want, I'm just that confident. I'll sure have pie on my face if I'm wrong, but again I have a lot of really solid reasons to think she's town so I'm good with my read.
Looking back, it's not enough to gamble with me being the night kill if you flip scum - that wasn't a good idea. I just think I'm right. My hat will be off to you if you're scum, because all the above makes you really read town.
StrungOver wrote:Guys 31 pages in we are not going to change any ones mind until a flip happens... please kill vezo or FF or exe
If someone is executed right now we lose the chance to choose the night kill target as a town. What's so hard to understand about the plan to choose someone for each possible flip?
Like for example, mine might be "If SV flips scum, vezok should be night killed. If SV flips town, _______ should be night killed."
That blank is what I need to figure out and it's going to take a reread, and I don't have time to do it and then do it again if the day kill ends up being umbrage. Which is why it needs to get decided.
Also, everyone needs to pick who they want to actually have the town vote for to make the night kill. That you can do while we're waiting for everyone's vote. Less concern about how many pages we're at and more concern about scum hunting.
FF wrote:Town points for her if Umbrage flips town! - Basically what I'm trying to say is, is that I don't think Umbrage and Setael are both scum; I think it's one or the other.
So, if I'm town, how exactly will Setael look to you?
If you flipped town, it would Setael look a little more town to me; although I would still be a concerned about how she was so confident you were town. In my little 'speculation' area I thought that she might be derailing Umbrage's bandwagon to save SO, but now I realize that's wrong. If Umbrage flipped town, we wouldn't have any reason to NK SO. Even if you flipped town, SO would still be on my scummy list though, although a few notches down.
Umbrage wrote:Also, regarding the VT claim thing: as the scum likely don't have access to a kill, I see no harm in outing a PR. Might want to wait until D2 to be sure though.
This is probably what I'll end up doing.
Umbrage wrote:OK, I'm going to go off on a train of thought here... It is almost certain that I have scum on my wagon. Now, I doubt that scum is Exe or charter because they aren't bandwagoning me, they've been pushing me for a long time now, they couldn't have known that I'd be the most likely kill target. And they haven't slowed down either. So either they are very lucky, very brazen scum, or they're town. In the same way, the last few posts by FF make me suspect him more: he's not on my case as much, he was gung-ho before, but now that the wagon's going, he's distancing himself.
I backed off a little once you pointed out Set's slip; that's what really threw me off. I am still for your execution, I just voiced my confusion about it. My alternate kill would be SO, which I know at this point isn't going to happen. Setael is on my scummy list, but right now she isn't a good execution choice. She only recently replaced in, so we won't learn much, if anything, if she's executed. Plus I've liked most of what she's had to say up until a few posts ago, even if I disagree with some of it, which is why I'm reluctant to get rid of her so quickly.
@ Final Fires: Do you still think I'm the most likely to be scum?
Right now I think it's a tie between you and SO, however I think we'll learn more from killing you.
I'm quite worried of obviously confused people who doesn't know whom to vote for right away.
Suggesting it ain't a good idea anyways (During the night), since Witch/Mafia? (Mallow's kept mentioning it.. ) have better voting powers than we do.
Even I'm not that confident who'll be the Executioner since Amrun became Elected.
Awww look at that little cute jab :3
@everyone else...does it look like my question was even answered? I don't think it was, but I just might be missing it.
Out of Umbrage and SV, I think SV would be the safer pick for the kill today.
Apologies for falling off the face of the earth.
I'M BACK BABY FOR A LIMITED TIME*!
Shattered Viewpoint wrote:I need to iso vezo; but that will have to wait; dinner's about ready.
When will this ever happen.
Shortly after, the thrust shifted elsewhere; 'this' will happen after night, provided I'm still alive.
Exe wrote:Why shouldn't Amrun be elected again? I don't see any good reason not to.
Fascinating. You went from the beginning of the day beating your own chest and tooting your own horn, to ....this. Just wanted to point that out. I think it's a bit too complacent and agreeable. (I wouldn't be surprised at an Exe+Amrun scumteam. I wouldn't be surprised at
anything
in this ridiculous game anymore.)
Better than you. Don't doubt me; it won't end well.
Llamarble, summing up my playstyle: "I'm obnoxious wheeee!"
OK, so Setael hasn't been in this game long enough for me to tell if he's buddying me or not. And he answered my question pretty well. Damn.
Honestly, I think vezokpiraka is most likely town. He seems WAY too proud of having a PR, like a kid with a new toy. Damn again. Who do I have left?
Either Amrun and Exe are both scum, or neither is scum. I don't see a single mafioso playing that recklessly without another one countering her. I could see Final Fires being scum independent of those two though.
I need to take a closer look at Ant. I don't like how he's been slipping under the radar.
So if charter is likely town, who's left? SV, Tragedy, HC, TS, and SO. I've had no reason to believe TS is scum this game, although I should ISO him just in case.
OK, let's look at what we have as a scum team then:
Shattered Viewpoint
Tragedy
Haschel Cedricson
StrungOver
Final Fires
Ant_to_the_max (?)
There's got to be less than five mafia. Any more would imbalance the game, five exactly would likely create a tie for the NK and break the game. Since scum don't have an NK, there's likely more of them than usual to compensate. I'm betting on four scum. Looking at this list, it becomes clear SO doesn't belong. Most of the other players have pushed his lynch. Tragedy was actually one of the first to draw attention to him, Final Fires and SV led the wagon. Interestingly enough though, HC avoided even commenting on the SO wagon, and Ant didn't want him dead either, preferring to kill Tragedy.
Yes, I know I'm town. But you don't, do you? To you, if SO is scum, then this is the likely scum team. I know that this team is not possible, though. So either we have a team of three, or a totally different team:
List B:
Shattered Viewpoint
Tragedy
Final Fires
?
We seem to run out of players to fit into that last slot. Which means I'm wrong about one of my town reads.
So I say we kill one person from one list, if they flip town, kill someone from the other list, if they flip scum, kill another from the first list. Either way, from my point of view, there's still one scum unaccounted for, so I'll be trying to figure out who it is.
Sorry for rambling. Hope this all makes sense.
I'll explain it to you. You have to get someone else to understand it for you.
) have better voting powers than we do.
![:]](./images/smilies/icon_smiling.png "Cheerful Smile"){kind=icon}