Mini 1130 - A Fishbowl Invasion by Ninja Monkeys! - Over

[Oso]

/confirm

[Oso]

Lets see, I've played with DemonHybrid, Parama and Bub(Nico's last game I think it was) and then AGar on a couple of different occasions.

Hi guys

Glad to meet the rest of you.

[Oso]

VOTE: Parama

Um...[insert previous Forum Avatar joke here. He had the nun-chucks, mask, everything....]

[Oso]

Slovenia? what are you talking about? As usual, I'm unable to follow you Parama.

Mad, rabid geese are trying to usurp the Sovereign Powers of Slovenia. It's been in all the papers.

The revolutionary forces of "

O

ur

M

ighty

G

ood,

U

nrivaled

S

torks (OMGUS)" are, as we speak, storming the government buildings....

[Oso]

..
OMGUS stands for: Obscenely Monstrous Gecko Urinating Secretly. Yours doesn't even have a verb, bitch.

Total fail. Mine is the name of a legitimate Democratic Movement, it doesn't need a verb.

Yours is about a big gecko who is bladder shy and afraid to perform embarrassing bodily functions in public because he is only 'monsterous' in the B.O department, if you catch what I mean.

His nickname isn't "Tiny" by chance.

[Oso]

UNVOTE: Parama
VOTE: [winger]

I disagree/agree with you on him, Parama. Double RVSing is the point I agree with. Giving him a pass, not so much.

You bring up a good point about crazypianist though. Have to see where that goes because from what I can tell, [winger] was the first to attack him on "lol"ing DH's vote. But for the moment, crazy doesn't look great, but not voteworthy.

At the risk of being accused of overthinking without enough info, winger attacked here::

...
Not at all, AGar. I just thought the response "lol" to someone who placed the second vote on pianist was a bit too lackadaisical.

DemonHybrid already pointed it out

... it seemed very much like crazypianist did have a problem with that vote, which makes me wonder

why she lied

about it.

Language is too strong for this early in the game, in my opinion [second bold part].

Apparent contradiction in the first bold part. DemonHybrid did point that out in Post - 41 but [winger] first mentioned it in Post - 39. [winger]'s post make it look like DH mentioned it first, in my opinion, and that [winger] is just building off that.

[Oso]

Me too. I think I'll just go with winger from now on if he doesn't mind.

[Oso]

(Double post, reread some)

@crazy, I'd like to add my own curiosity to this:

Calling your bluff.

Um...

What bluff? I like my vote on you now.

(those are consecutive posts: Posts 42/43)

What bluff?

[Oso]

..
Why?

She directly contradicted herself.

At what point in the game does it stop being "too early" to use the word "lie"? This is an arbitrary attack on me.
..

Umm....where? And it's too early to use the word "lie" when there is no lie. I've seen the points against crazypianist and while I do think there may be something useful there (which might be a stretch even for my imagination, only 4 posts), at no point has she either lied that I can see, nor has she contradicted herself.

[Oso]

EBWOP

Apologies crazy. I just noticed your avatar has "male" under it. Sorry for calling you "she".

[Oso]

Me likes that post^^

Moar winger votes, plz

[Oso]

..
anyways, [winger] is a newbie, and whether or not we approve of this, we have to take this into consideration when we judge him for his posts and actions. Thus I find a winger wagon premature at this stage (and this is coming from the player who set the [winger]] wagon going by applying the first vote on him)

Ok, now I'm confused a bit...I thought he was just new to this site.

..
This is my first game on this site, so you'll have to enlighten me a bit. I read through a few games here before I started this one, but I didn't see this being an issue there.
..

Perhaps winger could clear this up for me. Is this your first game of forum mafia ever? Or just your first on this site?

[Oso]

..
Last note: winger, stop playing on EM. It's bad for your health. This is coming from someone who's won a trophy on the site. NOBODY THERE CAN PLAY MAFIA.

Quoted for Truth...maybe?? I've never played on EM but one hears stories.

That out of the way:

@winger, if you would, enlighten me on the motivation behind this?

..
[snip]
..
If that's the case, and me double voting like I did, does that say anything about the connection between me/Oso or me/crazypianist? Or is it an individual tell?

Call me paranoid (I am by the way) but that looks like a backhand way to tie yourself to two players, disguised as a mafia theory question.

[Oso]

Fine, you're paranoid.

And no, it's not a way to tie myself to two players... it's an honest question that if double voting in RVS is scummy, then logic would follow that I would have a reason to unvote one person and vote for the other.

Ok, at the risk of starting an MD discussion. (And everyone is welcome to take this with a grain of salt since I am one of the players involved)

No.

Or at least no reason that really has anything to do with crazy or myself.

Votes at time of your switch to me:

• Parama - Oso(me), Riceballtail
  
• Oso(me) - Parama, Bub
  
• Sundy - crazy
  
• Winger - Twistedspoon
  
• AGar - Sundy
  
• crazy - winger, DH

Parama, Me, and crazy tied at 2 apiece. Your switch to me makes it the biggest wagon (big being relative, it was only 3. But it's a start). You switch back to crazy when AGar votes you here. That is a serious push by AGar, against you and has been said before, your reasons just don't bear up.

Your vote on crazy, myself and then back to crazy is fairly alignment null as far as crazy and I are concerned. Your vote made me the biggest wagon, which isn't all that damning as that made it a wagon of only 3, but you switched it back to a player that had home some semi-serious doubts thrown at them (which wasn't true in my case) the minute you came under pressure.

You are deliberately looking for easy to hide on wagons and/or already under pressure targets, from my POV. Your first vote was truly RVS, the switch to me, maybe can be explained by the reasons you gave (random voting as many times as needed for someone to do something scummy) if you are a forgiving person. The switch back to crazy after you came under some pressure: No.

He was the only other person in the thread that had any amount of serious(non-RVS) pressure on him at the time AGar put some pressure on you.

[Oso]

Shit forgot the tl;dr

crazy or I might be scum, but no one is going to be able tell that from your votes if you flip scum.

[Oso]

Your vote on crazy, myself and then back to crazy is fairly alignment null as far as

crazy and I

are concerned.

Possible scum-slip, much?

Sure, why not......

umm, where's the vote. I looked. It should be there.

[Oso]

..
I'm a

Town Doctor

...

Well, I guess that wraps up that, for now at least.

UNVOTE: [winger]

Sundy and Cecily, I don't think he is true-claiming.

That said, call it Oso's PR policy if you want, there is no chance we are going to get a counter today (it's D1, it's a Doc claim and we don't even know if there is a Doctor to counter if winger is false-claiming) and absolutely no way to tell if he is lying about the claim. His play up to this point (as bad as I think it may be) doesn't override the claim, in my opinion.

Back to Page 1....

[Oso]

..

His play up to this point (as bad as I think it may be) doesn't override the claim, in my opinion.

I'm not sure what exactly makes my play so bad. I pressured someone I found scummy, thought they didn't respond well under pressure, and pursued it.
..

Easy to explain. Since quite a few folks have put their own interpretation on the "lol", I'll give mine.

"lol.

Jesus, DH make up your friggin' mind would you

"

Anybody, and I mean anybody, that got something other than that out of crazy's response is well.....crazy. Trying to build a case out of it then and continuing to read something into it other than that now isn't crazy, it is scummy. Continuing to attack the 'lol' post and the people who are dismissing it as null and continuing to use it as evidence against crazy isn't doing you any favors in my eyes.

2 things I can say for an

almost

certainty about D1 in regards to me:

• You(winger) won't be getting vote for the rest of the day. True or false, your claim saved you from any further vote harassment from me today.
  
• crazypianist won't be getting my vote today. The case against him started with the whole 'lol' post and as I just stated, that case is a whole load of crap as far as I'm concerned and pretty much anything generated by it is pretty much useless in regards to him(crazy). It's only use was to find opportunistic scum who tried to push it, of which you were the front runner in that race as far as I was (and still am) concerned.

[Oso]

..
There was no vote. There wasn't supposed to be one. I just thought it odd that you would say "as far as crazy and I are concerned." It won't mean anything if crazy flips town...but it does raise at least two eyebrows.

Ah, I see. Perhaps some context would help:

@winger, if you would, enlighten me on the motivation behind this?

[snip]
..
If that's the case, and me double voting like I did, does that say anything about the connection between me/Oso or me/crazypianist? Or is it an individual tell?

Call me paranoid (I am by the way) but that looks like a backhand way to tie yourself to two players, disguised as a mafia theory question.

It took a while to get there, but what you quoted was in direct relation to the question winger asked you in Post-70

[Oso]

..
I don't like AGar's vote on TwistedSpoon, though. He essentially voted spoon for automatically believing my claim. Is that really so weird?

Yes. D1, only a VT is going to claim VT. Town PR will claim their role, scum will claim town PR, as a general rule. And even being just a "general rule", I've found it to be a pretty good one.

Still re-reading and it's shaping up to be a busy day.

Will have a vote and a case to go with it before bedtime, I hope. Tomorrow morning at the latest.

[Oso]

Uh contradiction much?

not really

It was the RVS stage when I voted Winger

Eh, caught that before I logged off.^^

That is a good example of what's been bugging me about your posts all game TS.

You claim you started his(winger's) wagon and that your opinion should carry some weight because of that when your start was nothing more than RVS. I can't articulate what bugs me about that, just that it does.

This whole newb thing. I have a bit of a soft spot for newbs (and VIs), having been both, but winger is not a newb. He might be new to MS and having some trouble with site meta but he's not a newb.

That pretty much sum's up what I think of your comments like that above. You're giving off mixed signals like crazy.

[Oso]

0 to L-1 in a grand total of 44 minutes...

Jeez....that was quick.

Looking back on the day though, I can see why.

Guess there isn't much to do but wait for Akira to respond. Which if he's runs true to form so far in this game, should be in about 10-12 hours or so. According to his ISO.

[Oso]

Any last thoughts to get out Akira?

(I've ISO'd you several times so I know your normal posting time is morning my time. About 2 hours before I start moving around so I'll hold off my hammer until then. Can't speak for others though.)

[Oso]

I forgot that part...maybe she'll be a town power role and we'll all unvote. (/sarcasm)

it worked for winger
Except he was town.

This.

And yes, I full well realize the irony of me saying that in light of what I thought of winger.

Bugger still lied though. Not that it makes a real difference but who says Doc when they are a JK??

[Oso]

Code: Select all

Post  #272   » 05 Mar 2011 - 1:33 pm (Day Start)
Post  #313   » 05 Mar 2011 - 4:55 pm (Hammer)
-------------------------------------------------- 
         Total time elapsed: 3:22

Yep, that's a record for any game I've played in.....ever.

See that new avatar of mine? If Cecily actually flips scum, I'll keep it until someone from this game tells me I've learned my lesson. That would make 3 blown calls in 2 days for me. winger, Akira (who I thought was going to flip town despite being willing to hammer him) and now Cecily.

If not, Bub or crazy look superfine for tomorrow's lynching...I'll bring the popcorn.

[Oso]

VOTE:DemonHybrid

Yesterday smells completely like chaining lynches after a bus.

Nice try though.

I can see the reasoning behind that. Anything else pinging your scumdar about him?

VOTE:Sundy

Please explain your vote.

This as well^^

Aside from the casting suspicions at 3 players but vote a fourth (which is worth noting, but I thought Sundy explained that well enough) anything else at all? Sundy has been reading pretty much dead neutral to me all game. I haven't been paying as much attention there as to others.

[Oso]

Ok, I'll bite.

What, exactly, is wrong with Post 56?

Um, as to unvoting Winger, like I said earlier Oso's PR policy which basically boils down to don't lynch PR claims day 1...ever. Don't take my word for it though. AGar (if he wants to that is) can confirm that I have done the exact same thing in a similar situation.

[Oso]

Gut's telling me that your intention was to vote the wagon that was less likely to take off on its own so that after that was done you could default to the other wagon regardless of whether or not the first wagon went through to a lynch.

Though in light of the post I quoted that hardly matters, since you're scum.

I don't care about your meta.

I thought about as much.

1)Gut
2)An "obvious" post. So "obvious" you feel it requires no explanation
3)Refusal to EVEN CONSIDER prior behavior that would invalidate either/both points 1 and 2

Despite that, you are still pretty low on my radar at the moment.

Moving on.

Waiting on AGar and Riceballtail before trying to take this day where I'd like to see it go.

[Oso]

Oso: right before D-2 ended, you said that both me and crazy looked "super-fine" for a lynching, yet you haven't even brought that up today. What gives?

This:

VOTE:DemonHybrid

Yesterday smells completely like chaining lynches after a bus.

Nice try though.

I can see the reasoning behind that. Anything else pinging your scumdar about him?

VOTE:Sundy

Please explain your vote.

This as well^^

Aside from the casting suspicions at 3 players but vote a fourth (which is worth noting, but I thought Sundy explained that well enough) anything else at all? Sundy has been reading pretty much dead neutral to me all game. I haven't been paying as much attention there as to others.

I haven't had any major twitches on my part about either Sundy or DH. It may someday bite me in the ass but having played with AGar before (even though he was scum in one of the games), I'm interested in almost anything he has to say at any given time.

Riceballtail's vote of Sundy is reasonless. By that I mean RBT gave no reason for the vote.

I'd like to hear from both players before I go cluttering up the thread with yet another case/vote.

Two different votes (at that point. Parama's vote of me makes it three votes on three different people now) is quite enough for the moment, in my opinion.

[Oso]

So, you're voting based off of word choice over intent? Think about what you're saying.

My question: there

are people

is only one person still alive

who voted Cecily but not Akira, and there were people who voted Akira late and still voted Cecily. What do you think of those people?

FTFY and that would be Bub Bidderskins - re:not voting Akira, voting Cecily.

To the second part, crazy is the most glaring example but Twistedspoon could also qualify depending on your personal definition of "late".

I know why I don't like either of those players at the moment, but I'd like to hear exactly why you don't and why you took such a roundabout way to point a finger at Bub and crazy without directly naming them.

[Oso]

To the second part, crazy is the most glaring example but Twistedspoon could also qualify depending on your personal definition of "late".

I know why I don't like either of those players at the moment

lolwut

Oso's dragging me into this?

VOTE: Oso
for not voting Akira; known scum, parama's argument and dragging the only confirmed townie i know of in the game (me), into this

Really?

I didn't vote Akira for one main reason, crazy beat me to the punch. But just to clear the air, I didn't want to vote him in any case. His explanation of his slip made sense to me as I have also dropped parts of sentences (hell, even whole sentences) when posting in a hurry. I didn't automatically think "slip". I thought he was stating the obvious because I added the

"if he is true-claiming"

part to his post when I read it in my head almost without even thinking about it.The only reasons I expressed a willingness to hammer was we already had a PR showing (winger) and we certainly didn't need another outed PR (or claim at all really) D1. When Parama said this in response to my statement that only VTs calim VT D1,

..
Funnily enough, town almost always lynches VT claims D1 regardless! <_<
..

He was basically stating what happens D1 to VT claims.."the person who claims VT D1, loses."

Had Akira been the first person to claim D1, instead of Winger, I wouldn't have even considered voting him after his claim. Pressure cooking the next scummiest player would have been what I would have thought. But since he had the bad luck to be forced to claimed after a claimed PR, he lost.

See Post - 337 for the second part.

As to dragging you into this? Unavoidable. To get DH to respond, I had to look at, and answer the questions he posed (they were at AGar rather than me, oh well). You are #5 on the Akira wagon. I didn't "drag you into this". Your positioning on the Akira wagon and DH's question did that. Pos 5 on a 7 person wagon would qualify as a "late" vote, in my opinion and that was one of the things DH was asking AGar to look at.

That part you quoted "

I know why I don't like either of those players at the moment..."

is directly related to Bub and crazy. It isn't meant to include you although I do admit that the way I structured it makes it look I am including you with crazy in that sentence. I was was thinking "Bub and crazy" not "Twisted and crazy"

[Oso]

I'm not really buying the case on DH. Personally, I think he's town. I don't read his reference to Parama as deflection. I think he's got a valid point in that Parama basically said the same thing he did and Agar didn't latch onto him.

The fact is that Cecily was such a prime target for a lynch that scum could have just sat back and watched.

The bold. That's just it Bub, she wasn't. And that is the main reason I like you as scum.

I haven't played with Cecily before so I don't know if she it prone to idiotic episodes or not and the whole case against her yesterday only makes sense if you think she's an idiot.

Akira(scum)/Cecily(scum) only makes the least amount of sense if you think she is somehow mentally defective when it comes to playing mafia. It is too bizarre otherwise. Not "too scuumy to be scum" either rather "too bizarre to be scummy". As her flip proved, she was giving an honest explanation.

As town, her actions makes more sense. She was defending her read on the "slip" (not defending Akira) and got auto-associated with Akira. Her only 'sin' was to give Akira the benefit of the doubt on the slip and accept his explanation of it.

Your post right before your hammer of Cecily:

..
Crap excuse. You didn't really push that hard agains the Akira lynch. You just said "it wasn't a scum-slip". You were reluctant, not out-right against. Please do not change history. After this post, I want two things to happen:

1) You to claim
2) Me to hamma

If 1) does not take place in a reasonable amount of time, I will reverse the order.

Ooof, easily the most scummy post of the game.

1) She already had claimed here:

....I am as townie as it gets.

. That was while everyone was waiting on her to claim, she did there.

2)You are going to hammer no matter what she says (as your next post proves). You can tell it by the tone of that post.

At no time yesterday, did anyone on Cecily even consider giving her the benefit of the doubt on her actions re:Akira and they should have because her play was so atypical of how a scumbuddy with any amount of experience would have acted.


About crazypianist, 2 things.

1) Hammering Akira without waiting for him to post a final time. Had crazy been an actual townie, he would have been just as interested as anyone else should have been in any final thoughts he(Akira) had to give, on the chance that he was telling the truth about his claim as well.

That looks like stealing the hammer from from the person who is willing to hammer to shut off discussion and get as much town cred as he can from his partner's flip.

2)That he leads off the day voting Cecily doesn't help his case much at all either (if it's not clear, nobody on Cecily's wagon is anywhere near town in my reads. But since there can't be that many scum left, some of you have to be town. Trying to figure out which ones they are is going to be a chore though).

I think he actually did what AGar thinks DH did except that he was quicker and was taking advantage of a situation that presented itself. Get on the wagon as far away from the hammer vote of a townie as he can.

Everyone has a built in excuse for the Cecily wagon simply because everyone on it looks so bad right now but there is no way there are that many scum left.

Which is why I don't like DH's comments so far today but I have to admit that they make a certain amount of objective sense. Looking for scum on her(Cecily's) wagon isn't going to easy.

Does that answer your questions, Bub? Or did you have some others?

[Oso]

Well, it looks like trainwreck number 2 is on its way to its destination. Might as well help it get there.

I'm a VT.

Final calls: Agar is town. Parama may be town. At least he looks the most townie on the Cecily wagon as there is no evidence prior to that of any overt scumminess. He's just being Parama as far as I can tell. I'd put Twistedspoon on the same level as Parama.

Sundy, Riceballtail. Both are a bit lurky as far as I can tell so any scuminess I have been getting from then is non-participation. If any two players are still dead neutral to me. They are it.

DH, Bub and Crazy. I'd say DH and crazy are definite scum (see my last post for some of the reasons). DH I'm not so sure about but there are, in my opinion, at least 2 scum in that group of three players with Bub and crazy tied for first and DH trailing by a fair amount.

[Oso]

EBWOP

I'd say DH and crazy are definite scum

Should read

I'd say BUB and crazy are definite scum


Apologies.

[Oso]

Jesus Bub, you are a real pain in the ass.

3 AND A HALF FUCKING HOURS

[Oso]

Hit submit by mistake.

No one had time to anything to help Cecily that might have wanted to. I posted in the thread here before she was at L-1. I made 2 posts in Forum 62 during the day, they are easy and require no thinking.

I knew people were posting here because my email notified me that new post were made but I was working and in no scenario that I could think of did I expect that she would be lynched before I could get in here and see who was taking the most advantage of it and attack them.

[Oso]

I did and you are right. I look at enigma's vote count and read the posts down to the one I responded to that Parama made.

This probably seals my lynch but I didn't see TS's vote. (I know, it is right below Enigma's vote count. But I missed it just the same.)

Until you pointed it out just now, I thought Cecily was at 4 votes when I made that post. I've ISO'd a lot of people this game TS hasn't been one of them.

[Oso]

Quick before work.

I agree with Sundy on Parama although I would have definately put him above Bub, crazy and DH on the town scale.

I know you've blown the call on me but ,eh, trying to convince you of that is probably not going to work.

I think you have most definitely blown the call on both AGar and TS. The main reason I didn't attack (just refuted) the posts Parama, TS and AGar made in regards to me is because I think they stand a decent chance of being town and are simply wrong, but not scum-wrong.

Bub's vote is attack worthy because well, Bub is scum and that by definition mean there is malicious intent behind all of his posts.

Off to do some work. If I remain un-lynched, I should be back in 10-12 hours or tomorrow morning. I have the 12pm-12am on-call shift today so depending on how busy I am, I may not be able to post until tomorrow if I hit the sack right after I'm relieved.

[Oso]

Caught a bit of slow down-down and checked in.

..
Even if you thought that he was at L-2 (

which I highly doubt, considering that Twisted's vote was right after the vote count

), you didn't try to get people to slow down. The four votes that you admit to seeing were right after each other.

Any reasonable player would assume that the lynch was moving very quickly, and yet you didn't do anything to say that the lynch was too quick until Cecily had already been lynched.

First bold. Already answered in Post 375 "

..This probably seals my lynch but I didn't see TS's vote. (I know, it is right below Enigma's vote count. But I missed it just the same.)..

" If you think its a lie, then say so, don't use this aside shit EVEN IF....(HIGHLY DOUBT....). You've left yourself an out there on that particular point no matter what what I flip because you have covered both possibilities.

Second bold. Wrong. It is not reasonable to expect that a person is going to be lynched in 3 1/2 hours in anything but a slam dunk LyLo. People get run up to L-2 and L-1 very quickly all the time, but I can say I never played in a game where it all the way to a lynch that quickly at the beginning of the day in anything but the example above: A no-brainer Lylo.

As to why I didn't try to get people to slow down? Again, I didn't think it would go to lynch that quickly. I thought I would have plenty of time after work to get all my ducks in a row and attack those who taking advantage of it. I fully expected to come back and see that the pressure has eased somewhat. What I did not expect was to come back and see a lynch.

@ Sundy. Small point to correct.

You Said:

#24: Oso says he's blown 3 calls if Cecily flips town, changes avatar (!)

I actually said :

See that new avatar of mine? If Cecily actually flips scum, I'll keep it until someone from this game tells me I've learned my lesson. That would make 3 blown calls in 2 days for me. winger, Akira (who I thought was going to flip town despite being willing to hammer him) and now Cecily.

If Cecily had actually been scum, I would have kept that avatar and probably went back to the Newbie forum for a game or two until my bout of the herpdy-derps has passed.

As to the rest of your points on me. I'd disagree on the last 'flail,flail,flail' part but yes to all the plusses and yes to all the minuses. When I get in a hurry (which does happen a lot on weekdays) I do tend to think way faster than I type. Makes for rather confusing posts sometimes. And yes, I can see DH being bad but his probability of being bad is way lower than Bub or crazy in my opinion. We still have an unknown number of scum out there but there is at least one more mafia and the traitor. That's two I'm sure that are still out there so I have no problem just having two serious suspects at the moment.

To answer any doubts about my stance on any of the players at the moment:

Prob town: AGar, Parama, TS

Scum: Bub, crazypianist

Undetermined: DH, Sundy, RBT but DH is riding the line.

I don't like the way he defended himself earlier today but as I said earlier, he does make a bit of sense. He doesn't however take any responsibility for his being on the wagon, simply points at the play of others that was similar to his own. Bub doesn't take any responsibility nor does TS and crazy hasn't even been in here yet today to say anything.

Only Parama has what I would call an "Oh shit" moment about the Cecily lynch when he answers your point:

#20: Declares Cecily to be scum and Twisted to be town, this eventually leads to Cecily's death (-1)

town can be wrong.

I still stand by the theory that Cecily was an antimiller, personally.

It's a small moment but it is there. That is why he is in top group of my list rather than the middle or bottom groups. That and his play in this game isn't saying 'scum' to me.

TS is up there with AGar and Parama because of his vote of me here. From that I got he thinks I might be scum but his main objection seems to be being mentioned in a post. Normally I'd say that reeks of scum but, in light of the speed in which Cecily was lynched yesterday, seems to me a perfectly normal and understandable survival reaction that a new player of either alignment would have. That said, it looks to me like a normal reaction of someone who really doesn't have a clue as to what's going on at the moment so that makes him town rather than scum in my estimation. Scum would have a clue.

[Oso]

..
I find it a bit funny that Oso's calling me and Bub uber scum when

he hasn't voted either of us

. Also it's interesting how I get lumped together with Bub without even posting...

Way I play pretty much. I generally don't vote if I haven't already, or change a vote, when I'm under pressure.

@TS, thank you. BTW, you are in no danger from my flip if I get lynched today.

@AGar, you are absolutely, certifiably 33.3% right with your last post:

Oso is scum.
With

CP

or TS.

[Oso]

I think that I am unpressurized enough to go on. I do see that TS almost got the noose instead and yes, I do appreciate what you did TS. Getting lynched is part of Mafia but I'd rather it not happen to me and I'm glad your unvote didn't end in your lynch.

Ehhemm....

MY TUUUURN

VOTE: Bub Bidderskins

tl;dr - Sorry, tried to get one, couldn't do it. There is just so much to work with. In addition, some responses to him that I didn't make in my defense when I was run up.

Note: A lot of this is highly subjective so if you think 'confirmation bias' at any point, I won't hold it against you.

First off:

I'm not really buying the case on DH. Personally, I think he's town. I don't read his reference to Parama as deflection. I think he's got a valid point in that Parama basically said the same thing he did and Agar didn't latch onto him.

The fact is that Cecily was such a prime target for a lynch that scum could have just sat back and watched.

The bold. That's just it Bub, she wasn't. And that is the main reason I like you as scum.

You said I looked super-fine for a lynch at the end of D-2. I made that post D-3. So since that's the main reason you thought I was scum, how could you have thought I was scum before I made that post?

It wasn't that sentence Bub. You are right, you made it today, not yesterday but it is entirely indicative of your attitude in your hammer post of Cecily on D2. here. You want to hammer, it obvious. The only reason you did the whole claim before hammer is to seem reasonable in my opinion. I do think that had she claimed a PR you would have backed off but it would have pissed you off mightily.

Which brings me to this little gem:

I don't usually put much trust in meta. It encourages stupid people to keep on being stupid otherwise people will think they're scum. However, I personally don't see anything scummy in what Oso did.

Scum would want to keep on pushing for a lynch of a claimed power role. Backing off wouldn't help them out

. However, there is one interesting thing about Oso....

Oso: right before D-2 ended, you said that both me and crazy looked "super-fine" for a lynching, yet you haven't even brought that up today. What gives?

Uuhhh, wut?? The bold part. Since when? Scum don't push power role lynches unless they are

more

than reasonably certain it won't come back to bite them in the ass. Not on Day 1, not any Day. I know that makes my unvote of [winger] suspect except that it is completely asinine to push a D1 lynch of a claimed PR for both scum and town. It's null. Giving town points for it makes little sense and it confused me when you said that. But I figured out why you are doing it as in regards to what I said above: To seems like a reasonable, take all views into account player when in reality you aren't.

He did it here as well.

Just for the sake of argument,

I'm going to assume Akira right

about your scum-slip #1 for this post. Moving on to scumslip #2...
..

So, even with scum-slip #1 aside

, Akira has still made

one too many

scumslips for my taste. Even without the scum-slips, he was moderatly scummy, but the slips put him over the edge.

Glaring Example. "I'm willing to set this aside..." but it is painfully obvious that he really isn't. Had he been willing to put it aside, he never would have mentioned it. It a facade to look reasonable. Kind of like those sleezy TV lawyers who say something like "Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, we all know Akira is an accused thief but I'm going to set that aside.... So, Akira, why'd ya steal the car, hmmmm??" It just looked better because Akira did turn out to be scum.

Even more than anyone else in the thread at that point, he pounds the Akira/Cecily=scum into the ground here and here (they are a post and EBWOP) but it is also painfully obvious to me that when people hear or say "

Akira

" he(Bub) wants their next thought to be "

..and Cecily his scum partner.

"

At that point, he gets the best of both worlds. Look at the state of the game at that point and put yourself back in that day, take the Akira/Cecily flips out of your mind. If she gets any more flustered, there is a good chance the Akira wagon could transfer over to her. A town flip of Cecily strengthens any defense Akira gives the next day. Failing that, since Akira probably is going to be lynched at that point, Bub isn't the real driving force behind the lynch at that point. Parama is. Any accusations of "too easy, that must have been a bus" fall on Parama and perhaps DH as the wagon starter, but not on Bub, he has insured that he prominent at casting suspicions at Akira but he hasn't voted Akira, he is being courteous to Parama by 'holding off'.

The final thing, as this more nebulous and more subjective but it stares out at me really badly, is that he(Bub) never does really give anyone the honest benefit of the doubt, like I said above except for here:

I'm not really buying the case on DH. Personally, I think he's town. I don't read his reference to Parama as deflection. I think he's got a valid point in that Parama basically said the same thing he did and Agar didn't latch onto him. The fact is that Cecily was such a prime target for a lynch that scum could have just sat back and watched.

But that is tainted. Bub was the hammer on Cecily so any defense he makes of another person on the wagon, is, by proxy, a defense of himself. If he can diffuse AGar's reasons for voting DH, he also does the same thing for himself should attention turn to him. He's not giving DH the benefit of the doubt there, he's covering his own ass.

I've already went over in other posts what I thought of his hammer of Cecily, in addition to what I put above, so I won't rehash that. Any post I made in this day in regards to Bub is still valid as far as I'm concerned.

This is long enough, Oso. Hit submit.

[Oso]

..
I would also consider

Oso

, Sundy, or Parama.

Why no vote and/or hammer then, on my wagon?

[Oso]

Post to let everyone know that I am no longer V/LA.

Don't like this. As in, I don't automatically agree with the assumption, not that I think it is scummy.

Well that made things interesting.

My best guess says we're in really good position right now. We should have 2 tries before we hit lylo, I would think. It strikes me as highly unlikely that we started with 3 scum + 1 traitor, as that gives us ~2/3 mislynches to work with, depending on how things work out. Even without a recruited traitor, 3 mafiosos gives scum a pretty good position to go into a mylo-esque situation on D2.

If anyone has anything exciting from the night actions, now would be an optimal time to tell us, as we (again - by my own estimates) should be in a 6:1 scenario.

6:1 is like AGar says. 4:1 come tomorrow, 2:1 LyLo come Day 6 if no scum are lynched.

5:2 means LyLo tomorrow if we mis-lynch today.

Point being, play to the second while hoping for the first and start lynching right today.

@TS. It's not WIFOM really. But consider this, killing you confirms your motivations. That can be considered by some to strengthen my claim since you risked a lynch of yourself by doing it. Keeping you alive puts both of our claims in doubt. Mine because the case could be made that you are town that backed off my lynch for townie reasons and that is being taken advantage of. Yours because you used gambit to save a townie for cred that paid off.

The first is more likely than the second, in my opinion, from every POV but mine. But overall, scum get more doubt in the game by leaving us both alive if we are both town because when your alignment is confirmed as town, my claim is auto-strengthened to a certain extent because you had no scum motivation for what you did. A case could certainly be made that you were wrong to back off and I am still scum, but having a townie almost take the rope to save you is a pretty powerful tool in the hands of the person you did it for.

The opposite is true. As scum, you would get even further cred by having me NKed at some point but not the night after you saved me. That borders on too transparent. But testing that means at least one more night.

So right now, from where I stand, you are still town and by using some similar reasoning as above, I'm starting to think that my case on Bub may not be as cut and dried as I thought it was. Checking that during day as I work.

[pre-edit]
I don't think scum screwed up by NKing Parama, at least not intentionally. That it happened tends to make me think that we are in a 5:2 at the moment rather than a 6:1.

[Oso]

Then, I believed I was hammered since Agar said he had hammered. Thus I posted my after-game thoughts and became a confirmed townie.
There was no-way I knew this was going to happen, and certainly didn't save you to increase my 'Cred'

seriously >_>

Quit being so defensive, seriously. And read what I posted above.

Start thinking as to why things are happening as they are rather than just reacting every time you see your name in post with anything that could be interpreted as an accusation.

Pull yourself out of the game for a second and read it like you are not a participant.

The main points of my post

• I think assuming a 5:2 is safer than assuming a 6:1 at this point
  
• Because of how I would be playing this game were I scum , I think that you are still town...
  "So right now, from where I stand, you are still town..."
  
  
• Using a variation of that thinking has caused me to doubt my read on Bub....
  "...by using some similar reasoning as above, I'm starting to think that my case on Bub may not be as cut and dried as I thought it was."

I even acknowledged that you being alive was more likely from an Oso(scum) viewpoint. The WIFOM you put forth, really isn't because keeping us both alive

weakens

the other's claim. The second we get a town flip on either you or me, the other becomes almost unlynchable. That goes to you more than it does me. Because of the unlikelyhood of TS(scum) gambiting like I described, TS(strong town) becomes TS(iron clad town) on my flip. Only way to kill you is by NKing rather than lynching. That doesn't apply to me but my claim is strengthened by your town flip. Both are results that scum would wish to avoid if they could. I'm still lynchable material. Much more than you are. But scum teams aren't known for limiting options until they have to. They NK people who they can gain the most advantage out of being gone.

[Oso]

Basic overview:

I think Bub is scum, Bub thinks I am scum. Over and above the normal "

well, it is Mafia, anyone could be scum

". If one of us is scum, who

DON'T

we want in LyLo with us should we get that far? That would the other person. If either of us is in a 3 person LyLo and scum, it's a town win.

Conclusion: Bub may not be scum and that gets stronger, from my POV, the longer I remain un-NKed. I know my alignment and the longer both of us (Bub and I) are in the game, still breathing, the higher likelihood Bub is town. It's not going to be auto-town by any means but that thought will carry more and more weight in deciding when to dismiss something as null rather than calling it scummy as I go back over things. Not saying that I still wouldn't go ahead and vote Bub in 3 person LyLo even now, but it's not going to be a 'slam-dunk' decision to lynch like it would have been yesterday.

Most of this is prompted by Parama's NK and his flip as the traitor. I'm currently trying to repair a mental disconnect over that one and it caused a basic disruption in how I thought this game was playing out.

[Oso]

Bub may not be scum and that gets stronger, from my POV, the longer I remain un-NKed. I know my alignment and the longer both of us (Bub and I) are in the game, still breathing, the higher likelihood Bub is town.

WIFOM?

anyways, you still haven't said what abour Bub makes you suspicious other than that he thinks you're scum.

Without explaining it just looks like omgus :/

The bold. I did all that yesterday and I'm not going to rehash/restate it here now.

It starts here and continues here. No follows ups because I got busy for a few days with work and had little time for entertainment.

As to WIFOM? You seem to like that phrase a lot. It is not the Holy Grail of Mafia. Breifly: Things have happened that have caused me doubt my overall reads on Bub. Not discard them, just doubt them. Leading to re-examination. But that "WIFOM" train thought you seem to think I have

will

carry some weight in my re-examination all the way to game over. Either here in the game or just watching after my death.

[Oso]

..
@Oso: "I don't think scum screwed up by NKing Parama" -- I don't understand this statement, can you elaborate? Why would they have wanted to kill him if they knew he was on their team? Also is it guaranteed that scum killed him as opposed to a vigilante or something? (I'm not used to this set-up)

I'm not sure I understand my statement either. Just don't see a player like Parama getting NKed by accident in a game where Mafia knows there is a traitor out there. Depending on your personal opinion of Parama as a Mafia player (he's fairly high on my personal scale of 'good' mafia players both from playing a game with him before this and by reading games that he happened to be in), he'd be a definite candidate for recruitment before ending up on the NK list in this game.

Currently trying to reconcile that thought as that is what caused the mental disconnect I mentioned earlier. It is possible that he was recruited I guess, but something ([winger] maybe) interfered with it so Mafia thought he was town. Aside from that possibility, it looks more and more like the NK was done deliberately with knowledge he was the traitor, at least from my POV.

But take that with a grain of salt. My opinion of his ability may not be shared by others so that could invalidate my train of thought completely as to whether he was a high priority for recruitment before NKing.

[Oso]

@TS. Actually, I don't think it's true, winger interfering with recruitment

Mae was in the game before N1 started. I checked. We didn't know it at the time but she was a Watcher so she should have been all over [winger]. Her actions the next day tell me she either didn't watch over [winger] and picked someone else or that she was interfered with so had no results to claim the next day. Yes, with Akira flipped scum, if she had results on a watch from a NKed town PR, I think she would have claimed D2. I would have. So she didn't have any usable results from her watch on [winger] and I do think she was watching him.

[winger] is most likely town. Even if he isn't, he's not the right choice for today. /obvisobv

Highest probability of getting a watcher hit as Mafia have no clue (other than speculation) that there is a Watcher in the game and winger's claimed role can prevent NKs.

We know winger didn't Jailkeep his killer, he's dead. He could have possibly jailed the mafia who was sent out to recruit but, until we get some evidence that Mafia have a blocking ability, it looks to me that [winger] jailed Mae.

winger could have possibly jailed Parama but I have never asked, or read, if the JK prevents other actions except NKs from affecting the jail target. According to the wiki, there is a variant of the JK that protects from all night actions so that could be what we are seeing here, without the name change to "Alien", obviously (I searched site-wide to see if I could find a JK discussion and I'm pretty sure one is there, I just can't find it at the moment as it's not obvious by reading topic names).

@Sundy. I'll grant you that that explanation makes the most sense and that it is the only one you are willing to entertain at the moment, you'll excuse me I hope, if I try and look at all options. No matter how bizarre they may look on the face of them because with the way our Watcher was acting D2, it looks like she had no results so no need to claim.

If I were scum in this game, from the winger claim on.....
N1:Kill Winger - Recruit Agar or Parama.
N2:If recruitment failed, kill last night's target and recruit the one I didn't try last night. If recruitment successful, start normal NKs
N3:If recruitment failed, kill last night's target and try another player using most dangerous player to least dangerous player as the criteria. If recruitment successful, start normal NKs....and on and on.

You can see by that, why I (from my own POV based on who I think the strongest players in this game are) think there is a good chance Parama may have been recruited already before he was night killed. Now if I can find any scenario where it makes sense for them to bus him after recruitment, then I might go with that.

Otherwise, I'm going to have to fall back on the "killed by accident thing" as sort of a default whether I want to or not.

[Oso]

Jesus, TS.

Yes, there can be a separate recruiter.

More likely though, in my opinion, recruiting and night killing are TEAM (shared) powers. An early lynch of a recruiter could emasculate a scum game in this game esp. if they do happen to be only a 2 man team. Don't assume that I think are three men plus 1 traitor just because I disagree with Agar at this point. My disagreement there is a caution. It can't hurt town at all to think there are still 2 scum left if there is only 1. A correct lynch is desirable in either situation.

Think for a minute about what you said though: A player says 'Town is in a good position as I think there is only one scum left...' Oso(scum) (who according to you knows there are two scum left) sees that and says <insert what TS thinks Oso(scum) says here>

@DH and CP: My posts may seem unneeded speculation to you folks but as I have stated TWICE, Parama's NK and flip has caused me to question just about everything I was willing to believe about how this game is playing out.

Half the stuff I am posting is thinking out loud and inviting comment as I try to get this straight in my mind. In regards to how Parama got accidentally NKed by scum before recruitment. I think I showed why I thought particular players might have been at the top of their recruitment list. Do you disagree in broad terms with that list or just in particular about Parama?

This makes no fucking sense at all

..
Had [winger] jailed Parama and Mae targeted [winger], then Mae would have found who targeted [winger] and probably would have claimed D2. If Cecily, then this would confirm her D2 actions and the theory above so she wouldn't have to claim. She would not have to claim in that case since Cecily was such a big train. I digress, however. It might be a better idea to stop with hypothetical evidence and try to find scum with what they've said.
...

That's the point I was making. Anyone want to put out a decent reason WHY Mae would watch anyone but winger? And then why she wouldn't come out with that D2? And we sure the fuck know it wasn't Cecily she saw.

Now if you think Mae watched anyone other than Winger, I'd like to hear your reasoning and I really don't want to hear "I'm not going to crawl into her head and try to think like her..." because she struck me, for the short time she was here, that she had a decent grasp of mafia and would know her highest chance of getting a positive watch was on winger.

So there are two options I can see. 1)Mae DIDN'T target Winger so there were no results. She got a negative on whoever she watched. 2)She DID watch winger and something prevented her from getting a result. Right now, from what we can see, winger is the only player we have showing that can block night actions.

winger was dead by N2 so if we think he was blocking parama or the mafia who tried to recruit him, where are Mae's results.

That is what is going on in my head at the moment.

[Oso]

Alright alright, but lets focus on the scummy connections over power role speculation. At least prioritize your actions, that's what we need right now.

I'm working on that.

Once I get straight in my head as to whether I think Parama's NK was an accident or intentional because it does reflect, at a basic level, as to what I am going to put forward.

If accidental, then I can live with the 'one scum left' and just worry about a single and throw out any player connectivity I think I see as it makes absolutely no sense to intentionally NK Parama in that scenario. Deliberately put yourself into a 6:1? I don't think so. If that happened then it is an accident.

If deliberate, that changes things because despite any number of arguments about balance, there are 2 scum left in my estimation so player connections are back in.

[Oso]

That's what I'm looking for and not finding it.

I can think of one reason I

might

do it if there were still two scum left, none at all if there is only one scum left.

In addition to getting a much longer post together at the moment, I'm also looking for actions that I would expect to see if Parama was intentionally NKed and they knew he was the traitor. Not finding anything worth bringing out except as an 'in case' scenario. 'In case' we flip scum today or tomorrow and the game doesn't end.

I'll include that 'in case' in that post as I can see no harm in it. If we catch and lynch a scum and the game ends, great. Then its just a bit of extra mental exercise. If we lynch scum and the game doesn't end, we need to be thinking about that now as it means we

HAVE

to lynch right today or tomorrow.

The beauty of it all is that whether there is one or two left, the goal remains the same: Lynch correctly as soon as possible. It either ends the game or confirms a second remaining scum. Win/Win. Whether Parama was NKed intentionally or not is pretty irrelevant to that goal except maybe as a starting on where to look but even that is unneeded as crazy was right. He didn't say it in so many words but scum should be findable without answering whether Parama was NKed by accident or on purpose.

[Oso]

..
They probably saw Parama as more of a threat, hence my theory.

Eh, this should have been a case/vote post but still having trouble getting trouble making sense of things. I plead tiredness.

@DH
To the above quote, I looked. I don't see that anyone still alive had any reason to think Parama was a direct threat them.

Aside from D1, he never starts a case on his own. The exception is Day 3. He was first vote on my wagon but even if you take his flip out of the equation, the vote he made of me wasn't a serious threat to me. The initial reasoning was weak, almost non-existent, and he never does come in to help support it. At L-1, Parama chiming back in would probably have gotten me lynched. Unlike Akira and Cecily before and RBT after, he has no easy 'out'. Mine wouldn't have been a slam dunk lynch and on my flip, everyone who was on it would have come under much greater scrutiny with their reasoning and he knew it. Added evidence, the way he switches to TS when he(TS) unvotes. Parama is the first on this as well. He's looking for easy lynches or lynches he can get started and slink away from.

He went after crazy pretty hard D1 but never went back to it so I don't see crazy as having anything to fear from him either. Especially as he takes almost all pressure off crazy when he votes me: "

....some late D1/early D2 posts make me believe crazy is town...

"

He has a various points, made connections: Akira/Cecily, [winger](scum) to crazy(traitor), Sundy(scum) if crazy(scum), Oso/Sundy...I may have missed one or two, he threw a lot of them around.

He's like an erratic wind, changing directions at random.

Your theory: I can find no such player as you describe, except maybe me. Certainly no one else alive had even a small reason to fear him for his case building skills this game. But, even before his flip, by the way he was posting and throwing votes around, anyone at L-1 with Parama holding the hammer would have had plenty to fear from him. So someone pro-actively taking him out of play for that reason makes some sense.

Who did you find, using your theory?

[Oso]

...
Maybe it's not so erratic as you'd believe.
..

Ok, I'll go with that (actually I did) and I need to ask this of players that have played with Parama more than once, preferably with one of those times being as scum together. I only played one game with him and read a few others with him in them and don't have the time to go re-read them in the depth I need to to answer this question myself.

Question: Is subtle part of his abilities? I mean really subtle. Elegant/Brilliant/Deep and/or Far Thinking might be used in placed of subtle. All describe what I want to know.

[Oso]

Well, I'll go with it anyway as it makes a certain amount of sense and it's all I've got for the moment. He is trying to communicate.

RVS
OMGUS generally brings attention onto you. Whether it is actually a reliable scum tell or not, people tend not to do it except in an obviously joking manner which I think is how it started.

vote: Oso

Ouch, Mad Geese Usurped Slovenia

We actually had some fun with it in the RVS, Acronyms.

No need for Parama to do it again, but:

VOTE: Parama
My former roommate is Slovenian, you prick.

I'm trying to save the Slovenians, not insult them. You have the wrong idea.
In other news,

Only Mature Guys Understand Seriousness

, y'know.

Look at the way that is worded.

"OMGUS, I'm serious here guys...

That was the reason for the question. That's subtle. And elegant and shows a sharp mind if he used his initial joke to actually do that on the fly. Friggin' brilliant if he planned it pre-game. Subtle enough that I might be reading something into that isn't there. I'll roll with it though since I think it looks like he is trying to communicate to scum in general, he might have done it to a player in particular. And I think I found it.

Sundy is most certainly scum if Akira is not, btw.

Sundy's responses (included to get the timeline straight)

257:^^ more evidence that Parama is either not so good on the reads, or lying

259:Out of curiosity, are you linking me being scum to Akira being town on any particular point of evidence, or just stating in general that I'm likely scum if your main suspicion is wrong?

Parama's 260:

I didn't even call you scum, since Akira is scum, and you're only scum if he isn't, though you *could* be if he is, but Cecily _is_ scum if Akira is scum so.

"Akira is scum and I know it, so do you. Let's flip him and then lynch Cecily."

Sundy is still completely defensive even after that interaction, maybe missed it/maybe not. He does get onto the Akira wagon but not the Cecily one. That one happened fast, maybe he did want to be on it but couldn't get a pre-hammer position but Bub saved him the trouble of being the hammer on a townie. Which makes me feel a bit better about Bub's hammer. Not by much but he's definitely on the rise in my estimation.

VOTE: Sundy

As to his play after that, the only vote he makes is on Twistedspoon during his wagon. What I think is telling is that he doesn't vote me. I'm below the scum line in Post-376 and even though I don't agree with Bub's points against me, some are defensible. Sundy could have totally sheeped Bub's case and in the next day hash-up of the lynch, made Bub look like the bad guy (Parama could have probably done the same). The only reasons I can think he didn't do so is because of paranoia or he is unsure town (<-that is what I was initially going with when Sundy didn't vote me: That he was unsure town). In light of a re-read, I don't think that anymore.

He reacted way out of whack to others in the thread about my speculation on Parama being deliberately killed as well. Everyone else who commented on it (including TS who voted me over that) didn't display near the alarm(?) that thought did to him. TS thought I was displaying knowledge I shouldn't have, CP and DH basically said,

"Unneeded speculation. or I understand why it (Parama's NK and flip) has thrown you off...now get your head back in the game."

[Oso]

...
Oso, you don't need all that detail on Parama communicating about the traitor. Do a word search of his ISO for "traitor," that should tell you all you need to know w/r/t hints.
...

Ah, you mis-understand, I think. Pehaps I stated my initial premise badly, for doing a re-read.

I didn't go back to get confirmation he was the traitor, the dead post does that. I went back looking for some sort of pattern because I had dismissed Parama's behavior as simply being erratic/very opportunistic because he was scum(this game) and because of playstyle. He displayed that behavior in the game I was with him in before, he was town there. You made a similar comment yourself in Post-112 which exactly echoed my thinking right up to, and for a time after, he showed up as dead scum.

..
Parama: I find over-confidence suspect in general but this player displays it regardless of alignment. Hence the ambiguity of my suspicion.

I went to see if what I thought was general erratic behavior, actually wasn't. As the traitor, he has 100% knowledge of the teams. Only thing he doesn't know going into confirmation is PR distribution. My last post is a part of what I found. My determination is that he WAS trying to communicate with scum. In general most certainly. At a particular player? Maybe, if it could be done fairly transparently to the players who had no knowledge of the teams but would, from his POV, have been fairly obviously to the person he was talking to.

The whole point of the first part of my last post (before the vote) was to show that I think he did try, and to point out the player he did it to.

The second to last part of that post is to give my read on you up until that point in the game. I was fully relieved that you didn't vote me there and I gave you some points for it. You had pretty much a dead neutral read to me except for the tag "doesn't post as much as everyone else". RBT was in that category as well. That post bumped you up into 'unsure/cautious town'. Point being, I wanted to show why you hadn't been under any suspicion by me before the re-read.

The last. More thinking out loud on my part. Up that point people had disagreed, for various reasons, on my NK theory. Even to the point of one player (TS) voting me over it. But, when I made that post, you were the only one to show an outright aversion(?) (<-Having trouble coming with the right word on that one) to the thought. I can't explain why that bothers me, but it does.

Conclusion:

• One remaining scum theory a go.
  
• Parama did try to communicate his traitor status to Sundy.
  
• Sundy missed it or didn't miss it but something happened to make him think Parama wasn't the traitor. Explaining why Parama is (dead Mafia Traitor) by
  MISTAKE
  .
  
• Don't see my vote changing anytime today.

[Oso]

and what will your conclusion be of who is scum

if

when Sundy flips

town

scum and I get Nk'd tonight Oso?

Fixed that for you.

I'm confident enough that Sundy is going to flip scum that the first part of your question is invalid from where I'm sitting, even as a mental excercise. As to the second, if Sundy's lynch doesn't end the game then tomorrow will be dealt with tomorrow, no matter who gets NKed tonight.

The spread of players still left after any Night Kill, is more than up to the task of finding Sundy's partner should his flip not end the game.

[Oso]

Alrighty then Oso. Let's go.

I didn't go back to get confirmation he was the traitor, the dead post does that.

???

I'm not saying you needed confirmation he was a Mafia traitor. I'm saying your theory that Parama's OMGUS acronym was a "subtle," "elegant" and "frigin' brilliant" clue that he was traitor MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE because Parama made actual signals in ISO #4:
---
[ISOs]
---
Given all of this evidence, how could you POSSIBLY decide that Parama's OMGUS acronym meant something, and ignore all of these bread crumbs???????? Why make something up out of thin air when the evidence is right before you?

Simple, I have trouble with the obvious in case you haven't noticed it yet this game. "Can't see the forest because of all them damn trees around." is a criticism I have had directed at me more than once in my life.

I thought those ISOs were Parama being Parama which leads right into your next point:

Pre-Parama flip. I was thinking he was town.

..
Only Parama has what I would call an "Oh shit" moment about the Cecily lynch when he answers your point:

#20: Declares Cecily to be scum and Twisted to be town, this eventually leads to Cecily's death (-1)
town can be wrong. I still stand by the theory that Cecily was an antimiller, personally.

It's a small moment but it is there. That is why he is in top group of my list rather than the middle or bottom groups. That and his play in this game isn't saying 'scum' to me.
..

For reference my "Top Group" was Prob Town. It had AGar, TS and Parama in it.

Post Parama flip: My thoughts,

"Shit, I didn't see that coming."

I had thought his erratic voting was indicative of the only playstyle I had seen from him up to that point. He was town in that game. Faced with a scum flip, I had reverse that and think

"...ok, so he does the same things as scum too."

So I did not think Parama was scum pre-flip. I didn't even consider that he was anything but meta-neutral in his playstyle post flip until DH said that maybe his being erratic wasn't erratic at all. That is part of what prompted the re-read of Parama. Him and CP both saying telling to me to calm down a bit and start thinking again was the other part.

As to knowledge of him knowing 100% the team lay out re:who is town and who is scum? The Wiki: http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Traitor. RBT I think it was, mentioned it earlyish in the game as well.

I don't care what you think. I do care that the rest of the players understand why and how I went from no previously voiced suspicion at all to certain scum.

As to the speculation being a scum-slip? I'll throw some of your tactics back at you? Why would I, as scum, point out that we deliberately killed our traitor knowing he was traitor when AGar, in the first post of the day, states that he thinks town is in a good position.

You asked me earlier what reason I could possible put forth that would explain it. That's it. Kill the traitor, get the town complacent, say "Man we got it whipped now...". The short answer is that I wouldn't even introduce that if I knew that Parama had been deliberately killed, I'd have agreed wholeheartedly with AGar.

That's why I finally came to the conclusion it was a mistake that Parama was killed rather than deliberate. A kill of a townie last night puts us in lylo today. 4:3. So the initial shock of having Parama, a player I'd have thought would be a good player for an early recruitment attempt, show up dead immediately triggered a 'knee-jerk' "No way in hell that happened by accident" response.

It was a mistake because the person he tried to tell (you Sundy), didn't pick up on it or something interfered with recruitment, and you killed him by mistake.

[Oso]

Double Post.

I would like to take this time to point out to everyone that in Post-574 Sundy questions my methods, thinking and my motives but doesn't address my main point.

That Parama is talking directly to Sundy here:

I didn't even call you scum, since Akira is scum, and you're only scum if he isn't, though you *could* be if he is, but Cecily _is_ scum if Akira is scum so.

Agree or disagree with my thinking process all you want or my methods for reaching my conclusions but there is no disputing the fact that it led me to that post.

Now knowing that Parama is the traitor, anyone else want to give an explanation for that post other than Parama trying to tell Sundy something?

[Oso]

I've already claimed here, TS

..
I'm a VT.
..

Did you expect it change between then and now?

As a modification of that post, you can put town reads everyone but Sundy. One scum left means everybody else has to be town, even you Bub.

Sundy gets the ObvScum category all to himself.

[Oso]

It was a caution. The only claims in play right now are yours and mine. Both VT.

crazy, Bub, DH, Sundy and AGar are still unclaimed.

I agree that 3 original mafia is less likely than 2 original from a general balance standpoint, but until you get everyone claimed or the game ends, setting that in stone could conceivably bite you in the ass.

I'm not going to soften this. The reason you were left alive, even as a confirmed townie, is not because Parama was more dangerous or a better player than you are (both are true) but because you have demonstrated the following:

• You are new, or at least give that impression. I don't know if ms is the first place you have ever played mafia but anyone looking at your play would assume very limited experience.
  
• You are easily confused in regards to the game of Mafia. Comes with being a new player.
  
• You have shown a marked tendency lately to attack anyone who make a posts with your name in it that doesn't have TS=Town in it somewhere or even hints that you are something other than town.

You are a scum wet dream. And there is proof, aside from the comments CP, made after your hammer, no one has said anything about your no-claim hammer of RBT. Part of that is because of RBT's attitude during run-up to lynch. The greater part is that someone has that in their pocket and at some point, somebody is going to call you on the hammer or maybe just whiff some general doubt on your status. If you don't react the way you have been reacting on your own and vote them, then someone else(scum) is going to say something along the lines of:

"Jeez, TS. He thinks you are scum, let's lynch him." and you are going to go along. You are specifically being saved, by scum, for that or similar reasons.

[Oso]

The only scenario I could see that had Parama killed deliberately was if there were 2 scum left besides him.

AS I STATED SEVERAL TIMES. That Parama could be killed accidentally before the mafia tried a recruitment made absolutely no sense to me. It shouldn't make any sense initially to anyone who has played with him or read any game that had him in it. All that speculation about a 3:1 vs a 2:1 is me trying to get that fact straight in my head. DH saw what the problem I was having with that, CP did as well.

They weren't adverse to the fact I brought it up. It was obvious that were buying it but their response was to try and calm me down aboot it and get me back into the game with thinking that might actually help. They succeeded.

In an initial 2:1 start, killing Parama deliberately makes no sense at all as half the team is already dead (Akira). In an initial 3:1 start, killing Parama on purpose

might

make sense in one specific scenario even if one scum is already dead.

On giving some thought on the one I thought might make sense, even it failed because keeping Parama alive puts us in a LyLo today (4:3) with a good chance of no one realizing it is. Ista win with a mis-lynch and town going "WTF"

So

in this game

it makes no sense to kill to kill Parama under any circumstances last night. So, Parama's death was a mistake. Had scum been able to figure out Parama's status before last night (no matter how many are left) he would have been recruited rather than killed.

Given all that above, the 'one scum left' point of view makes sense from a balance standpoint. The 'two scum left' viewpoint really doesn't except that it is not a bad thing to keep in the back of your head just in case.

That's what all that did for me. Between my thinking and posting my thoughts, as confusing as they might to you folks right now looking back, a couple of players told to calm down and think. That's what I did.

I kept the 'two scum left' in the back of my mind and re-read as if I was looking for a single scum. No connections to anyone still alive. Just connections or interactions to dead players. I found you and that post of Parama's (Post-260..I have the post number memorized by now. Another couple of posts and I'll probably have the damn URL memorized too.)

You are scum independent of a connection to anyone still breathing in the game.

[Oso]

You are right, how scum see you has no bearing at all on my role PM, it's a town PM.

Why not talk about you? Or the weather? Or the Tsunami.

This day is basically over.

crazypianist is going to come in, look things over ask a few questions, maybe ask Sundy for a claim, or just go ahead and hammer me since I've claimed already.

I'm not even going to try to get you and Bub to change your votes. You because I don't think it's possible at this point. Bub, because even though he voting me, he's pointing in the right direction for tomorrow:

..
As for Sundy, I think there may be a decent case on him, but I would like an Oso lynch better.
..

It's not a slam dunk but I'm pretty sure he'll be going that direction if I get flipped here today. Half the reason I went after Bub is because I've seen him post in games and outside of them, he knows how to think. The only reason I could come up with him hammering Cecily was that he was scum and I let that cloud my thinking. I did what he did except he didn't stop to think in regards to Cecily and I didn't stop to think there was another reason he was voting Cecily other than it was an easy lynch. He simply got up in the momentum that was fueled by the D1 lynch of scum.

Agar or DH might conceivably change their votes to me, but I'd only expect to see that if crazy didn't come in and solve it or if he showed up and couldn't make a decision but I don't see that happening. crazy doesn't look like he has any problems making up his mind.

So things are good for me from where I sit. If crazy comes in and votes me, it is game over when you guys lynch Sundy tomorrow. If he votes Sundy, then game over tonight and I get to start making fun of Sundy for missing Parama's message to him that much sooner although I'm guessing Parama has already, or still is, ripping him a new one in the Dead Thread , if Enigma made one.

Life, as far as mafia goes, is good today. So I'ma wait on crazy and see if has anything he wants answered from my end before he makes any decisions.

BTW, that post where I was talking to you. It's advice. Quit being so paranoid about your own survival. While alive, hunt scum (or lynch townies depending on what you are that game). When dead keep up with the game and enjoy. If you get into this situation again, where you are alive and you think you should be dead, try and figure out why.

You came up with one on your own except that really only works if you are dead. DH came up with another. You are not dead because there was a more dangerous person on the hit list. Mine was another: That you are being kept alive for a specific purpose.

After the game is over, you might find it was a mish-mash of all the reasons you could think of and others came up with, or it could be none of them. If something is happening you don't understand, doing what you did was good start, asking. Although doing so in the game is a bit problematic.

[Oso]

@Sundy,

NOW: THERE IS ONE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT CONCLUSION FROM THIS ANALYSIS. It is this: that Parama was never successfully recruited (

unless there's another killer at work

). Please keep this in mind for the future.

The bold. I didn't exactly miss that the first time through but I think I did stop reading that paragraph at "..Parama was never successfully recruited."

Not sure what you are getting at there.

[Oso]

Results please

Night
Target
Results of watches please.

[Oso]

Without seeing the initial role PM I can't outright say parts of point 1 are a lie.

I'll answer any questions you have on my own behavior crazy if you have a need to ask.

[Oso]

Not really going to either. Not because of being difficult but because I have to admit I don't have one. No scenario I have in my head excludes you as scum.

I'm going to guess both you and he(TS) are going to find this highly unsatisfactory.

The only other suspicion I have at the moment is in the "in case there are two scum left" file. and that would be dependent on there being a scum flip with no GAME OVER post.

That would be AGar for this:

Well that made things interesting.

My best guess says we're in really good position right now. We should have 2 tries before we hit lylo, I would think. It strikes me as highly unlikely that we started with 3 scum + 1 traitor, as that gives us ~2/3 mislynches to work with, depending on how things work out. Even without a recruited traitor, 3 mafiosos gives scum a pretty good position to go into a mylo-esque situation on D2.

If anyone has anything exciting from the night actions, now would be an optimal time to tell us, as we (again - by my own estimates) should be in a 6:1 scenario.

And that would only kick in if we flipped a scum and the game didn't end. Up until that point, AGar remains a town read to me.

The only other 3 I had suspicions on were Bub, CP and DH. CP was the hammer on Akira and I had stated that I wanted to give him (Akira) a chance to speak before I hammered. cp prevented that. It looked like a scum hammering to cut off discussion and get whatever town cred he could by helping lynch scum. Plus, I never brought this out even though I made a post that had cp suspicions in it, I thought he might be the traitor. If DH had ever flipped scum or CP ever flipped as the traitor, I would have brought that reasoning out. It was too weak to hold any validity in cases against either player without 1)one of them flipped at some point or 2)Some sort connection between the two that didn't rely on one or the other of them being a certain role. Just "scum". Parama's death blew that all to hell. CP can't be the traitor so anything I saw that I thought was a connection between the two that relied on CP being the traitor didn't work any more.

Besides, as I said, they both helped get my thinking back on track this morning. Hard to think bad thoughts about either one of them at the moment. The only real case I had on CP was nebulous(and now disproven) in one part and one instance of being what could be described as opportunistic scum as the other part. DH. Same thing. His early Day 3 posts did look like deflection onto Parama and he phrased a situation to look for that led me right back to my "Bub and CP look like dandy lynches" of the end of day 2.

Bub, even at that point, still looked like the best prospect for catching scum based on actions alone though. Once through helping AGar grill him, I'd have went after Bub. Unless DH totally cracked though, there was no chance he was getting my vote D3.

Bub, I thought he had taken advantage of an easy lynch. As I said earlier, he strikes me as pretty decent in the thinking department and the only reason I could come up with at the time was that he was taking advantage of an easy lynch. I made the decision to do just what I accused him of not doing with Cecily, I gave him enough benefit to lay off him, at least for a bit. The whole "both of us were still alive thing" isn't a lie or even WIFOMy, we'd be a a scum "dream team" in lylo if we were both there and town, if we kept on attacking each other and neither of us managed to lynch the other. Something neither of us managed to do Day 3. He came closer to lynching me than I did him though.

I'd blown the call on winger, I thought he was scum despite backing off his D1 claim. I thought Akira was town, he wasn't. I thought RBT was scum when I came back from V/LA. I knew from the lynch post and the front page she was town but reading the thread, had I been present, TS wouldn't have needed to hammer, I'd have done it right after she didn't claim at L-1. Parama I had as a town read. Wrong there too.

Cecily and TS seem to be the only reads I have had all game that seem to have been right. TS remains to be seen, Cecily, you only have my word on that I thought (as in a [town-thought] not [scum-knew] sense) she was town pre-lynch.

Figured it was wise to give Bub the benefit of the doubt because if I switch it around and let Bub be a townie who just got caught up in the momentum of the Cecily lynch, the rest of the things I pointed out about him don't look near as bad in that light.

Which brings us to today(game day). After a mental jolt at the beginning, I started over. If you aren't scum Sundy, then I have no suspects. AGar, TS are reading strong town. I have no real case against CP or DH and as I said, Bub gets a pass until he does something blatantly scummy.

[Oso]

I have so many jokes I wanna say.........<head asplodes>

Good game, folks.

[Oso]

Parama was a watcher too. Don't want to take all of Enigma's thunder here but I think the many watchers was for some counter-claim lulz.

[Oso]

General question:

When Bub said this:[/quote]...Scum would want to keep on pushing for a lynch of a claimed power role. Backing off wouldn't help them out...[/quote]
Was I the only one who thought that was off?

And for my part my tunneling of Sundy didn't help out at all. I'd have bet money in Vegas that Sundy was going to eventually flip scum before my lynch.

Day 4 was fail on my part. Forced a choice there was no right answer to when it came down to a Oso/Sundy lynch.

[Oso]

quote fail...

[Oso]

I...didn't expect being killed on N2.

Nobody caught my breadcrumb though which makes me RAEGGGGGG

Um, how to say this nicely

At least a suspicion or two cast Bub's direction might have helped someone pick up the breadcrumb or maybe make the breadcrumb a bit more obvious. Something like:

"Hey doodz, I got scum in the open right here. I watched him kill winger last night...."

Hell, I'm pretty sure even I'd have picked up on it if it were phrased like that.

Seriously though, you played it the way you thought you should have. That it didn't work out is just the way mafia works sometimes.

Thanks, Engima for the game. Very good flavor and entertaining to read. And thanks to all the players. It may be a town loss but the game was fun in any case.

@Bub.

[Oso]

..
Also - why was everyone so convinced of a 3-man scumteam PLUS a traitor. I'm still baffled by that, I was pretty sure there was no way that NRG would let a 4-man scumteam possibly arise in a mini normal.

For my part, I wasn't convinced that there were 3 men + traitor. I did start to consider it though when the traitor ended up NKed. Like Parama, from the way I would have played it, the traitor wouldn't have been killed by accident after N1. N1 might have been a blind shot at a suspected strong townie that got the traitor instead. ANy NK of the traitor after that would have had to been deliberate and that only makes sense in a 3 man goon squad.

It made no sense in this particular game though.

[Oso]

Quote fail, how did Mae's name get into Agar's quote?

[Oso]

Yeah, and this may be hindsight talking but in Bub's position, after losing my only known partner D1, I might have even

seriously

considered not killing N1 so as to not accidentally kill the traitor. There are not many times that not killing N1 makes sense but this would have been one of them.

[Oso]

Hindsight again, but in this game, that should have been the exact wrong thing to do.

2 men down to 1 man after the lynch and it is N1. If you(Bub in this case) are tagged by a cop(gunsmith/thief type roles could be just as damning as well), then no help for that as there is nothing that can be done.

You can however, minimize your exposure to other PR types by not killing.

Watcher: Probably will be (and was in this game) watching the most visible target. BAD if you kill that target.

Tracker: Tracks you to the kill (if the tracker targets you[Bub]) BAD if you kill winger. Still bad, but not automatically fatal, if he tracks you to a recruit candidate as nothing is going to happen to that person. There is wiggle room if the tracker calls you out as to why you were moving about at night especially if the target of your night action doesn't die.

This game it does cast some suspicion because we know there is a traitor and mafia can be targeting someone in a non-lethal manner BUT you have a decent range of town PRs you can claim to cover for moving around.

Again, I'm not sure how much of this thinking is what I would have had done if I had been in Bub's position and how much is influenced by hindsight though.

[Oso]

Yeah, you did get ripped up pretty well in there. Even by your non-teammates.